Knox Ridley @knox_ridley Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Knox Ridley

@knox_ridley

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Portfolio Manager at @IOFundOfficial . Tweets are not advice.

San Francisco & Colorado

https://t.co/3M15TDHGVj

Joined September 2011

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

2 years

Each week I’ve been discussing every twist and turn in the market -- if you want something more detailed than "bull market" or "bear market," consider listening to the free samples of what I provide for my premium members every week.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

2 years

I know $NVDA guided down, as some are comparing it to $CSCO in ‘00. But, that call was incredible. They are laying the roadmap for becoming one of the most valuable companies in the world. Macro headwinds will end, and many will look back wishing they bought down here

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Knox Ridley

3 years

This is the sixth value rotation I've counted this year. Every time growth snaps back with a wider spread. Note the positive divergence between the relative performance on value/growth. Not sure this time will be any different.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

In October of 2020, Citadel paid our new Treasury Secretary $337,000 for a speaking fee. Citadel owns a portion of Melvin Capital, and is one of Robinhood's top customers. $GME

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Knox Ridley

3 years

My entire feed is filled with people calling for a major crash/end of the bull market. It’ll be interesting to see if this is the first major bear market everyone saw coming and was prepared for.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Here's a recent example of why it is so difficult to own a great tech stock from its IPO days. This was one @Beth_Kindig and I lived through. First position at $16 with a full allocation at $28 - up 1000%, so far. $ROKU

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

The 10 year yield is up and Tech is up - that’s not supposed to happen! Reason #82 why I stopped listening to financial news and instead focus on charts.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$ZM Trying to think of the last time I’ve seen a tech company grow YoY revenues over 300% for 3 consecutive quarters....It certainly wasn’t in 1999.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$BTC We're in the final move in this epic 3rd wave uptrend. $65K/$75K are my primary targets. The internals & counts are flashing warnings. I expect lots of "bubble popping" articles to follow this 4th wave drawdown, and once again being wrong. Will look to add on this correction

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$BTC This move below $31,000 confirms that we are in the larger degree 4th wave, which should find a bottom in the listed targets. We were heavy sellers between $60K-$50K, which lead to public backlash, and now we are buyers, which is also leading to public backlash.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

The story is that a tweet sank $BTC. Yet, anyone with basic charting skills could see that a fall was developing weeks in advance. News can trigger the ultimate drop, but only after the asset is weak. We've been taking gains since Feb. Also, we started layering back in yesterday

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$ROKU Case is building for a bottom being in. Within the the context of the larger uptrend (5 wave pattern that started on the March '20 lows), a drawdown to $265 is within the framework of the bigger trend. If the bottom is confirmed, $696/$700 is the target for the next leg up.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Maybe we were lucky, but we sold ~40% of our crypto holding from Feb - May, based on our analysis. We were called nuts by the bulls then. Now that we have bought some back between $42-$35, we’re being called nuts by the bears. ATH by year end, IMO. 🤷‍♂️

@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$BTC We're in the final move in this epic 3rd wave uptrend. $65K/$75K are my primary targets. The internals & counts are flashing warnings. I expect lots of "bubble popping" articles to follow this 4th wave drawdown, and once again being wrong. Will look to add on this correction

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Knox Ridley

2 years

$BTC One more low should complete the b wave down, followed by a larger c towards $95K. I see $108K - $160K as the major target before we revisit the $45K-$31K region, at minimum. Lines up well with COT data, as well as the inflationary macro picture we are in.

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Knox Ridley

2 years

Again, the implied vol in $SPY vs the 30 day realized vol is around a 120% premium. The last time we saw this kind of positioning was in late Sept. What followed: +15% move in $NDX. The market is just too bearish too soon, and the unwind should be great for longs going into Jan.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

My account has never been better since I stopped watching financial news....

@trevmuchedzi

Dr Rich Kahnt

3 years

It seems like the stock market is always in a bubble

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Bought more $BTC....there are two scenarios I see playing out: one has us bottoming soon, then a blowoff move before the bigger correction. The other has us in the bigger correction. We’ve allocated our cash accordingly. Not being a hero here.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

If transports and small caps break out to ATHs, along with the rest of the broad markets, and we get a relative breakout in China as well, this market is going up in a big way, regardless of what anyone thinks of inflation/supply chains.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$SPX a 4th wave bounce with another low should do it. I'm expecting $NDX to bottom first. Finally starting to see some fear in prices. The next low should shake out the rest. There will be nothing more bullish than a bottom between 3640/3550, then a 5 wave move to new highs.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Many names are showing exhaustion signals and oversold levels that rival the March 2020 bottom.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Sentiment is at levels that have historically marked a bottom since the larger uptrend started in March of 2020.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen downside insurance so expensive. Put/Call ratio for broad market ETFs are very bearish right now, which usually means we’re going higher. Even with all the red flags in the market, this doesn’t bode well for the bears right now.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

It's looking more and more like a major bottom was put in at the $29-$31K range. Who here is ready for $BTC $100K?

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$BTC continues its topping process. I can see one more push into the $65k-$75k region (blue count). The other alternative is that we already topped at $62k (red count). Regardless, this is not the region to be adding for a buy-and-hold position, IMO.

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Knox Ridley

1 year

Bull Markets typically do not start with the yield curve inverted.

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Knox Ridley

2 years

Most global markets appear to be in a 4th wave along with $SPY. My long-term trend finders have never been this oversold. Also, going back to '08, every time SPX hit a daily RSI of 22, we were positive on average by ~14% six months out, after one more low.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$ROKU is up 1230% from its IPO, providing a 88% CAGR for anyone with the conviction to buy and hold. Maybe this time is different?

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$FUBO confirmed 5 waves off the low, as we approach the $35 resistance. If we get a pullback that holds the $28-$22 region, then break back out above the recent high, shorts will get absolutely smoked. Also, the targets from this larger 3rd wave will be epic.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Transports bottom, $NDX shrugs off volatility...next stop could be 16k.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Strong close - the high was bought going into the long weekend, as we closed above the 13300 resistance on $NDX.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

We trimmed again at $60k, lowering our allocation in preparation for what I’ve been saying for weeks. Levels that matter - $50k, $42k. Below $42k and the 4th wave is in motion. Without a plan, the noise and emotion around this drop will be likely overcome the opportunity. $BTC

@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

1st target hit to the dollar, and then a major breakdown. RSI broke its pattern that has been in tact through all of 2020, the $55K support was broken as well as the 55-day EMA. $BTC is notorious for shakeouts, so a follow through here will be crucial.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$SPX Maybe this time will be different? After a 7% move in October, with all major indexes at ATHs, realized vol on a 1 yr look back is at major lows, and still trending down...I would not want to be short this market after this little shake out is over.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$BTC hit the shallow 4th wave target and now appears to be in the early stages of its 5th wave. If this breakout holds, I'll be targeting ~$55K first, then look between $70-$80K for a bigger top. A break back below $40.5K and we could see a retest of the 55-day first.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

2 Potential setups, both are supporting the next leg up. The global setup across various broad markets and economically sensitive sectors reminds me of late 2016/early 2017. I don't care about valuations/bonds/the 10-year/inflation, and neither do equities right now.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$ROKU continues its path to $700

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$ROKU Case is building for a bottom being in. Within the the context of the larger uptrend (5 wave pattern that started on the March '20 lows), a drawdown to $265 is within the framework of the bigger trend. If the bottom is confirmed, $696/$700 is the target for the next leg up.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Looking for a minor top soon and a potential low into Nov 5-10. All my macro work is supporting a rally through year-end/early next year. The question is NDX 17500 or 18500 before we see a bigger (normal) correction. If anything changes, so will we.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

My recent report on how we are positioned for this market, and why...

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Investors are currently paying a large premium for downside insurance right now. Not usually what you see before a crash. A minor shake-out before a push higher is more likely.

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Knox Ridley

2 years

$TWLO found a bottom at a confluence of major supports. The gap up tomorrow is promising, but we need to reclaim $255-$260 before a confirmed trend change becomes probable.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

I can think of so many better stocks to short than $FUBO. High probability the low is in. Pullback to $23-$19, followed by a breakout above $33, and we'll see new highs quicker than most think.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Been watching @Beth_Kindig do this for years. She may be early, but she’s rarely wrong when it comes to tech. She caught a lot of flak for standing in front of this one, but she was right and deserves the accolades.

@Beth_Kindig

Beth Kindig

3 years

$FSLY earnings show me that more times than not, I get the story right. In fact, numerous times I've laid out the exact path a product will take. This isn't arrogant. It's the outcome of hard work. Earnings are confirming I/O Fund is on the right path with our portfolio 👍

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Not Bearish...

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$NDX bounce is coming. One more to the wall at 12500 would be ideal.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

We are in the minor 4th wave target zone for $NDX, as the RSI is signaling some sizable reversal signals. Also, implied volatility for $SPY is 27.3% compared to the 30 day realized volatility at 8.2%. This means put buyers today are paying an astounding premium for protection.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Within the context of last year’s incredible advance, this drawdown in tech growth appears to be normal. Earnings prove tech isn’t slowing down in the face of tough comps. We believe the selloff is providing some stellar opportunities. $ROKU

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Knox Ridley

2 years

$NDX Multiple reversal signals within the internals as price is making a potential double top. If this next pullback holds the supports listed in the yellow box, the next move to ATHs will support a multi-week/month rally. We'll continue to de-risk/raise cash into any strength.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$ZM will likely always be "over valued" until it is one of the largest companies in tech. As for entries - I don't think we've bottomed yet. The internals are flashing warnings, and there are simply too many support levels coming together between $325-$295.

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Knox Ridley

4 years

Why would you not want to own $AMD right now? Multi-month ascending triangle, respecting a 4-year trendline that has not broken, sellers are drying up, $NVDA has taken off and semis are I an clear breakout move. $AMD $NVDA $SMH

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$NDX update. Commodities toped the same day growth bottomed on May 11/12th. The bond market doesn’t seem to be buying inflation fears as lumber is now negative YTD. Regardless of path unfolds, expecting much higher levels before the bull market ends.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$SNOW been calling for these levels for a while. a break to all-time new lows is a big deal. There is a scenario where this stock gets reasonably priced, and I'm waiting until that happens or not at all.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Uptrend on the weekly RSI broke as the downtrend that has kept the RSI bottled up since the 2018 top is still pushing momentum down. All this while price is making new highs. A 300-400 point pullback should reset sentiment and the internals for the next leg up.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

@saxena_puru Every time we've had a value rotation, the spread has grown in the opposite direction. Maybe this time will be different.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Not touching $TDOC until it goes sub $100, or gets back into a confirmed uptrend with a clear 5 wave pattern. Not sure if that’s all the corrective bounce we’re going to get, but there’s no doubt it’s in a large degree 2nd wave.

@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Not saying this magnitude of a correction will happen now, but I'd be really careful if $TDOC hits that $355-$375 level. It's fully completed a 5 wave pattern off the 2016 low, on weak momentum and volume.

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Knox Ridley

2 years

VIX tagged 30 on a 3% move, IVOL premiums on SPY are over 130%, and every post on my feed is screaming bear market. I can’t imagine the reaction when we are actually in a bear market.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$PINS $65 is key. We break that support, and this setup becomes a high probability. Having a hard time finding the immediate bullish setup with this price data. However, the long-term trend is still up.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$BTC goes above $41500, and we can expect new highs by winter.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

2 years

"We do think 2022 is going to be a little bit more of a tough year. Not just for tech but for equities, in general." Check out my take on $ZM and $AMD, plus more on @IOFundOfficial 's 2022 outlook for #tech stocks in my chat w/ @OJRenick on @TDANetwork :

Market News & Programming for Investors | Schwab Network

Schwab Network empowers investors with market news and programming that interprets real-time market insights, strategy tips, and platform tools.

schwabnetwork.com

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Long-term structure in $MGNI. The more immediate bullish path broke below $26.75. High odds that we are in the final leg lower, which is targeting $20 - $16 region.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$ROKU Great example of price and time coming together. Time: from the all-time low, count 365 days, and you get within 2 days of a major top. Cut that cycle in half to get 182 days, then repeat the cycle to locate potential inflection points...

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

2 years

$NVDA looks like a slight gap up tomorrow on $AMD. This is after bottoming and basing at a key confluence zone. If it can take back $217-$227, the unwind of bearish sentiment will be epic. Below this level and the pressure remains down.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

2 years

Global Bond markets aren't buying the growth story going into 2022. Eurodollar Futures inverted on the '24 contract, and China cutting their RRR rate is never a good sign. Continuing to derisk until this clears up.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

When gold starts outperforming copper on a relative basis, it has been a solid leading indicator that market weakness could be developing. However, with NYSE breadth as strong as we are seeing, I can't imagine any drawdown would be more than a passing correction.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

1st target hit to the dollar, and then a major breakdown. RSI broke its pattern that has been in tact through all of 2020, the $55K support was broken as well as the 55-day EMA. $BTC is notorious for shakeouts, so a follow through here will be crucial.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$BTC after cutting our position in half in Feb-May, we accumulated between $42K-$31K.We also added at $60K, and are now fully allocated. Expecting a minor drawdown before we breakout above $65,500; however, if ATH is reached 1st, then the path in play becomes much more bullish

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Knox Ridley

1 year

We were aggressive buyers in mid October, and now we are aggressive sellers. As bullish as I want to be, too many markets are not confirming this breakout move. And, most importantly, we only have a 3 wave bounce off the Oct low. If the coming pullback is a 5 waves decline, as

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Knox Ridley

3 years

One of many ways we manage risk in an all tech portfolio is through position sizing. We always start out small (1-2%), then feed our winners, not our losers. $ZM for example is one of our largest holdings. We started small around $64 and have added on notable breakouts.

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Knox Ridley

2 years

Looking for the final flush of this complex 4th wave to happen once we break $36500. We will be heavy buyers again sub-$30K. For this setup to invalidate, we need to take back the $43750-$46500 resistance. $BTC

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$ZM quality company that's completing a complex correction, after a nearly 1-year shift in sentiment. I want to see how the stock trades into the October 18-26 time factors before adding.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

How many bubbles have to pop before it's not a bubble? $BTC has seen 3 major busts with drawdowns greater than 80%. Each time, we saw new highs within 3.5 years. Compared with other large growth bubbles/recoveries $NDX $CSCO $QCOM and it's obvious something is different with $BTC

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$ROKU needs to hold $322. If so, I believe one of the 2 paths outlined are in play (red or blue). Price hit the $350 support right in the middle of a large time factor (a period where trends are likely to change). A breakout above $400 will confirm the reversal.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

So far so good...A break above the ~$48,700 region will likely take the correction off the table. I'll be looking towards the $70k-$80K region for the end of this large degree 3rd wave. $BTC

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$ZM price and time coming together - the 52 week cycle from the ATHs, along with the 49-day, 180-day, and 360-day cycles from key inflection points are all coming together as price tags the 38.2% retrace of wave 3. We added at $254

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Knox Ridley

1 year

$SPX As long as we hold 3795, the next most probable move is +4300. Below 3795 and we could see a double bottom, maybe slightly lower. The reason I'm not in the crash/2008 repeat camp is the $DJI. If the Dow breaks its Oct lows, it could get really nasty.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

I'm no economist, but this breakout in the dollar suggests we could see a lower high in yields. With a recently confirmed ultra-dovish FED, I'd be careful of the inflation/value trade being the new leader into the next leg up.

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Knox Ridley

4 years

I don't know many analysts as generous as @Beth_Kindig . She turned her free newsletter subs onto $ZM 300% ago, and she recently released one of her favorite tech stocks that many aren't even aware of $BAND. If you haven't subscribed, you're missing out.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

A little deeper than anticipated, but still a dip in a much larger uptrend. I/O Fund accumulated during this period, and setting up for a year-end rally. @Beth_Kindig

@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

We are in the minor 4th wave target zone for $NDX, as the RSI is signaling some sizable reversal signals. Also, implied volatility for $SPY is 27.3% compared to the 30 day realized volatility at 8.2%. This means put buyers today are paying an astounding premium for protection.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$BTC evidence is mounting that a bottom could be in. As long as we stay above $41500, this breakout could move fast. Below $41500 and the scenario where this is a large corrective bounce starts to look more likely.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Here’s all that matters with $FUBO - can they pull off sports betting? Everything else being discussed is noise. If they can’t, then the noise matters. If they pull it off, then the noise doesn’t matter. Y Combinator (Balto) + Sky Media’s about 20% stake matters a lot.

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Knox Ridley

1 year

This next pullback should be sizable. If we are in a new bull market, we need to see a rotation out of Big Tech and into everything else that has been sold under the hood. $NDX

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Setting up for a nice rally. 1st major time factor is coming into play in late Jan/early Feb. $NDX

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Knox Ridley

4 years

In our universe of over 100 stocks that we analyze, these are the 10 that are exibiting the best relative strength so far - % off 52-week high, strongest 1-week relative strength, and the companies that have changed the most from week 1 to week 2. $ROKU $ZM $SE @Beth_Kindig

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Transports have spoken....

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Knox Ridley

3 years

We are in the danger zone for invalidating the ending diagonal pattern to new highs. Below $320, and the odds begin shifting - I'll give it to $295 before shifting completely. Regardless, even if we break that level, my question is not IF we are getting to $700, but how.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Advance/Decline Line at all-time highs, the McClellan Oscillator moving into regions we see at the beginning of bigger moves up....wouldn't want to be short this market right now.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Major supports held/reclaimed across the board (semis, cloud, NDX). Need $NDX to hold 13300, 13280, 13150. Each support broken increases the odds of another leg lower. Adversely, each support held builds the case for a bottom. Below 13150 and we have more pain.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$BTC - long-term game plan, if we break above $41500. If a breakdown happens below $31000 first, this scenario gets invalidated.

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Knox Ridley

2 years

We are excited to announce the results of our audited 1 year returns, as well as our audited YTD performance through Aug. 1....

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

$NDX There are 2 counts I'm working on, and this is my favorite. A failure at 13300 and break below 2600 suggests the 2nd wave isn't over. A breakout above 13300 suggests this count is active. If so, we should have one more buying op before the next leg up shocks the market.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Relative performance of small caps vs $NDX $SPX since the Aug 30 top is encouraging. 4150-4250 $SPX is my lowest target in this minor correction within a much larger uptrend.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Morgan Stanley Identifies The Source Of Massive Treasury Selling | ZeroHedge

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Knox Ridley

2 years

$NVDA Next up is $193. If we then take back $210/$230, this count will become a much higher probability.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

Just revisiting $TDOC. It always seems impossible until it happens. Will look to potentially reload around $155

@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Not saying this magnitude of a correction will happen now, but I'd be really careful if $TDOC hits that $355-$375 level. It's fully completed a 5 wave pattern off the 2016 low, on weak momentum and volume.

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Knox Ridley

4 years

$LVGO 3 gaps while in a 3rd wave is usually a warning that a peak is close. We can extend, and in this market, I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm looking for a 4th wave pullback, which will be another buying op on this gem.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$NDX the bounce looks corrective, so far. If we can breakout from the downward trendline, we have a shot of this bounce forming into a 5 wave pattern, and thus a bottom being in place. The RSI is suggesting that may not happen on this bounce.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$TSLA There's a ot going on in the $530-$470 region.

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Knox Ridley

3 years

With 24% of $SPX in tech, imagine what will happen when $NDX starts taking back its leadership role....

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Knox Ridley

1 year

This is usually not how bull markets starts. $AAPL $MSFT

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Knox Ridley

3 years

$TWLO's chart reminds me of $GOOGL in 2013.

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Knox Ridley

3 months

Anyone paying attention can see that $BTC is in a clear uptrend with a lot of room to run. Also, metals and energy are setting up for a move higher, as the dollar looks ready to roll over in a big way. This is happening while equities are topping out. Those that think Bitcoin is

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

Added to $FUBO below $34 - a significant retrace level in my assessment. Until the story changes, holding with no stops and adding to our cost basis of $18 for the 1st time since the $21 breakout.

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@knox_ridley

Knox Ridley

3 years

@saxena_puru IV is astronomically higher than RV across all major ETFs. Positioning is not leveraged in a way to cause a major unwind. And, i doubt we se the FED raises in this environment. Looking for a bottom this week/next.

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