Mr. Raamdeo Agrawal says there are only two ways to find stocks at dirt cheap valuations
1) when everyone is selling due to panic or
2) when company is new and not many know about its true potential
We would like to add here - when company is small, obscure and off the radar
Story of 0 to 10
All investors want their stocks to go up 5x, 10x, 20x or more
We have all heard stories of how a certain stock went up 50-100x for great investors like - Mr. Jhunjhunwala, Mr. Vijay Kedia, Mr. Ashish Kacholia, etc
Here's our experience of a 40x stock
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Do you know?
Female condom sales in US have exploded 20x from Rs 17 cr in 2018 to Rs 350 cr in 2021
As per our knowledge, only 1 co. is serving the market
An Indian listed co. is knocking on the door...if it gets an entry in 12-18 months, it can be a huge opportunity
Did you know?
Time Technoplast got approval by PESO for Composite Type-4 CNG cylinders in the month of May'21
There's an ongoing debate between CNG vs EV penetration in India
But today we will look at Composite vs Metal cylinders that are used in the CNG space
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Did you know?
The per capita Beer consumption in India in 2020 was around 1.2 ltr while the same was 181.70 in Czech Republic
Recently, our team was studying a listed Beer company and we decided to look at some data on Beer consumption in India...🧵
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When studying Ply board companies for investment, you come across various terms like, MDF, particle board, laminate, veneer, etc
All this can be confusing
Not anymore...we have shared differences between
1) Laminate and Veneer
2) Plyboard, MDF and Particle boards
Revenue recognition in case of Real estate stocks
Recently, we were looking at PPT of a real estate company which kept talking about highest ever quarterly sales in Q3 of 500 cr +
However, reported sales nos were only 200 cr +
What's the catch here?
Let's understand (1/n)
Key performance ratios to analyse Bank Stocks 🧵
If you have been investing in stocks, it's very likely that at some point of time you must have had a banking stock like - HDFC, ICICI, SBI, etc. in you PF
Analysis of bank’s accounts differs significantly from other cos.
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Pipes industry in India has delivered some of the biggest wealth creators: Astral, Supreme, Finolex..
You may have also heard of PVC, UPVC, CPVC at the time of construction/renovation of your house
Today, we will look at the variants of PVC pipes and differences 🧵
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It's Sunday and a good day to improve your understanding of cash flows of the co.
As they say, ‘Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity and cash is reality’
In this small 🧵 we will share with you 4 cash flow ratios that every investor should look at while analyzing any co. (1/n)
Suven Pharma - A 6 bagger (65% CAGR) since initiation around 88 odd levels (adjusted for demerger and bonus) in May'17
Can read the initiation report here -
Greenpanel
2 years back its market cap was 330 crore
Today, its PBT itself is 350 crore
Disclosure: Not a reco, nor any holding or coverage.
Unfortunately, missed the entire 20x rally despite recognizing the business potential quite early on
#cyclical
businesses 🧵
A detailed thread on how to invest in cyclical businesses so that
- you don’t get trapped at the very peak and
- invest when the cycle is down for good gains in subsequent periods (1/n)
The attached pic tells us why it is so important to read Annual Reports
Cash flow statement of a company - Adds short term borrowings to cash flow from operations and inflates the operating cash flows
Is this market correction similar to 2015-16...can it recover like 2016-18?
As an investor the last few days might have been tough due to relentless fall in the markets
What's reassuring is that similar falls have happened in the past and we don't even remember them 🧵
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This "blood on the street" phase has become so common and widespread, it's usage gets triggered even at 3-5% correction in the market
What would a 20-30% correction be called then?
As an investor in stock market, one has to read about companies, industries, balance sheets, P/L statements and cash flows
In this small thread 🧵, we will share with you 4 important ratios that every investor should understand and look at while analyzing any company (1/n)
Even though Value Investing is a lot more than tick marking the checkpoints; an Investment Checklist surely helps in overcoming biases and avoiding same mistakes.
Here's our checklist. Do share with us yours
In this short 🧵, let's look at the Sea food industry or more specifically the Shrimps Industry
There are a few Shrimps industry based listed stocks and after a lull of 2-3 years, they seem to be making a comeback
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It's always good to have moments of laughter when going through sometimes boring corporate announcements
- rewarding shareholders through bonus
- stock trading at 180 and may not be affordable for many
Disclosure: No recommendation, no holding in the stock
Companies which have recently expanded their capacities (40-50% growth in net block) and yet to accrue benefits (sales growth less than 10-20%) from it could throw up good investment opportunities for next few years
# Poultry industry...a small 🧵
Last year was bad for poultry stocks because of exorbitant rice in feed prices
Stocks are down 40% + from the peak
There are a handful of poultry industry related listed stocks and now might be a good time to understand the industry a bit
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In all probability, the investments that you will make in 2018-19 will deliver you higher returns (in next 3 years or so) than the investments you made in 2017-18.
Last week our founder Ekansh Mittal got an amazing opportunity to address the students of Prof. Sanjay Bakshi
The topic was Special Situations in Stock Markets and the idea was to share the thought process through case studies
The PPT can be accessed at
Over the last 10-15 yrs, several small and mid sized Metal stocks have exhibited the following pattern:
4-10x rise from the lows...followed by 70-80% fall from the highs
Lot of metal stocks have already risen 4-10x in 2020-22 up cycle
Will the 70-80% downside follow 🧵
(1/n)
Real estate demand is picking up and we were recently reading about Oberoi Realty
While doing so, we came across some interesting stories about Vikas Oberoi, the man behind the company
A small thread 🧵 (1/n)
When investing in small and mid caps, you won't ever get the perfect company...as an investor it's important to determine what level of imperfectness you are comfortable with and accordingly determine allocation to the stock
#imperfect
companies
We often get told to look for cos. with high ROE, ROCE, low debt, high margins...
Instead, if you can find cos. with low ROEs moving to higher ROEs, high debt getting paid off or low margins expanding to higher levels, there's greater potential for returns
Did you know?
Globally, Auto LPG is preferred over CNG
Auto LPG is the third most widely used transport fuel in the world after petrol and diesel
What about India?
Here's comparative snapshot
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Exactly a year ago, got an opportunity to address the students of Prof. Bakshi on the topic of special situations...an absolute privilege
For those interested, have shared the presentation here -
Ekansh Mittal of
@katalystwealth
delivered a fantastic class in my BFBV course today. Topic was special situations i.e. risk arb. Absolutely brilliant class. Thanks Ekansh.
#delisting
🧵
A thread on delisting based special situation opportunities in India and how to play them in 2 ways:
- Just after the company announces delisting offer
- after the delisting fails
Recently Ashish Sir
@LuckyInvest_AK
tweeted about inflation in the wake of recent market correction
Luckily he responded back to some of the queries
You will find most practical and humble answers from someone who has created immense wealth from the market
Here's a snapshot
Key terms we come across when analyzing Pharma stocks 🧵
India is known as 'Pharmacy of the world' and has delivered some of the biggest wealth creators
Some terms are specific to pharma industry and it becomes important to know that before analyzing the cos.
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Stock markets can be ruthless psychologically
Your investments are up 85% on YOY basis...yet you are not feeling great...in fact bad
Why, because they were up 100% a month back
Just came across a company with 30-40 crore annual PAT trading at 3000 crore market cap
This is when the stock is down 45% from its peak
Stock has re-rated from 5-6 PE in 2013 to 100-150 now
Graph from Google trends:
Such a good indicator for Contra Investors
Can't say when the stocks (broader market) will start moving up...but looking at the past trends, the best time to think about multibaggers is when very few are talking about it
#CanfinHomes
- A 20 bagger since initiation around 30 odd levels in May'13...8 Years with intermittent periods of deep correction
Can read detailed initiation report at -
If the price of a commodity falls below its cost of production, it generally marks the bottom of the down cycle.
What metric would you say then can be used to identify the top of the up cycle?
We started Katalyst Wealth 10 yrs back
It's amazing to see how some members have been able to multiply their wealth from 10-20 lakh portfolios to 1-1.5 cr
Kudos to them for saving regularly, investing through market volatility and diligently following the updates
Investors are scrambling to find Electric Vehicle based opportunities
But, is the natural gas ecosystem including CNG expanding in India and are there potential investment opportunities
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It's not that only 50 PE + stocks have moat
There are some incredible small companies trading at 8-20 times earnings with existing and developing moats
Identify them, invest in them and keep reviewing before they get re-rated and become part of the elite club
What is being said in this video by the management of Metro Shoes is so important for both the entrepreneurs and the investors
As rightly said, "Never waste a good slowdown" and to add to it "a bear market"
What's common between a lot of stocks that went up 5, 10, 20x over the last few years
- In general rising sales year on year
- Depressed margins and earnings at one point of time
- Depressed valuations during periods of low margins
Stock idea - Ultramarine & Pigments
5 min summary of FY 22 performance, various divisions, raw material and freight cost impact and planned expansions from Annual Report 22
Hit🔁for maximum reach
Disclosure: Not a reco to buy/sell...nor RA
@EkanshMittal_KW
holds the stock
A 🧵on stock reports
Over the years we have made several of our stock reports public ranging from those released in 2011 to the latest one in 2022
Just putting them all together in one thread for easy reference
Hope you find some of them useful
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In the current market situation, a good starting point for investment research could be to look for companies where the insiders (promoters/management) are buying
Has the market bottomed out or not?
There are no definite answers; however, if we had to look at 1 data point to understand which zone the market is in or where it is headed, we look at the following chart
Short 🧵(1/n)
Bad earnings + volatility can deliver Great returns
Investors consider bad earnings and volatility as their worst enemies
Let's see through an example how you can befriend them and aim for 5-10x returns on cyclical stocks
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Mr. Nitin Gadkari recently launched India's first hydrogen-based fuel cell vehicle (FCEV) - Toyota Mirai
We decided to compare EVs with Hydrogen based vehicles and here are the details
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Don't invest based on small, mid, blue chip, next this, next that tags
Invest based on management, market size, margin of safety, track record of the company
So many blue chips of today started out as small-mid caps and so many junk stocks of today were large caps once
Research on stocks has improved significantly over the years; however, most of the time investors tend to ignore the most important document for research - the Annual Report of the co.
In this small 🧵we will share with you what to look for in the annual report (1/n)
Problem with buying say 100 PE stock
Stock falls 20%...still trading at 80 PE
All of a sudden you won't know when to average down your favorite stock because 80 can go down to 50 and it won't look cheap even then
Indian markets have so many listed companies in the Steel tubes and pipes industry
Here are some brief details about the industry 🧵
- The estimated value of Indian Steel tubes and pipe industry is around ₹ 60,000 crore
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Thanks
@faltoo
...here's a picture of me playing tennis...I play tennis almost daily for an hour or so and urge my followers and clients to engage in some kind of physical activity to remain fit
#HumFitTohIndiaFit
Lab grown diamond (LGD) industry...key pointers 🧵
1. Gujarat govt. has decided to wave electricity duty on production process of LGDs
2. At present, units using HT (high tension) connection are paying 15% electricity duty and LT connections 10% duty
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Building products industry has created immense wealth for investors
In fact, one of our best recos. came from this space - Cera which went up 11x before we closed it
Let's just briefly look at some data points w.r.t. sanitaryware, faucets, tiles...🧵
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An observation from attending the concalls of cos.
Analysts/investors tend to get very aggressive with the management wherein the prices have gone nowhere in the last 2-3 years
More than the business, it's the stock price movement that determines the behavior of the investors
What's happening in the fertilizer space?
Prices of major fertilizers have increased 2-4x since Mar’20
Why have the prices been increasing since Mar’20?
Let's look at the reasons in the thread below
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Is the conveyor belting business expected to record exponential growth or what?
Look at the crazy increase in promoter holding in last 3 years
Disclosure: Not a recommendation to buy/sell, nor do we have any coverage or holding in the stock
One correction not many know and talk about is -
May 2006 correction
It lasted just a month, but do you know how much the SENSEX dropped
30%
10th May'06 - SENSEX - 12612
14th Jun'06 - SENSEX - 8929
Did you know?
Our existing education pattern of K-12 (10+2) is likely to soon change to "5+3+3+4" pattern
The curriculum development is in progress as the New Education Policy (NEP) was adopted by Union Govt. in Jul 2020
Some details in this 🧵
(1/n)
What's common between a lot of stocks that went up 5, 10, 20x over the last few years
- In general rising sales year on year
- Depressed margins and earnings at one point of time
- Depressed valuations during periods of low margins
A small 🧵discussing each point
(1/n)
Our detailed analysis on Gufic Biosciences
Watch the complete presentation by our founder Ekansh Mittal on
Use coupon code "KatalystWealth" to watch the video for free on
Disclosure: Stock recommended to members at 180
Nice one
"Decline in stocks is not a surprising event. It recurs. If you live in cold climate, you expect freezing temperatures and when it drops below zero you don’t think of it as the beginning of ice age. You know summer will be warm again. Stocks do the same” – Peter Lynch
#resultsseason
No matter how many years we may have spent in the market, as soon as we find out that our investee company has announced its results and we click on the pdf link, we still get butterflies in our stomach
What about you?
See, almost all the businesses are cyclical and no matter what even the good companies go through bad phase
Once you realize this, you start enjoying the process of screening for cos. going through margins contraction
Here's our screen for the same -
Pilots use checklist prior to takeoff to make sure everything is functioning as it should. Surgeons use checklist to minimize errors
Similarly, Investment checklist can protect you from costly investment mistakes
Glad to share with you our checklist -
One beautiful way of thinking about investments is to change the frame of reference...Ex. Imagine how you would have reacted to correction in markets if you were not already invested
What is SMA - 0, 1, 2 and NPA? a small🧵
If you invest in banking stocks or companies that are into the business of lending, this might be important for you
We have all come across terms like NPA, GNPA, NNPA, etc
But do you know about SMA?
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2 steps process for building 15-20 stocks multibagger portfolio
- Shortlist cos. that are able to consistently manage YOY growth in sales without equity dilution
- Add them to your portfolio during periods of contraction in margins and profit
Rationale explained🧵....
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Caplin point has delivered 13x returns in the last 6 yrs
Stock is down more than 50% from highs
Before you start bottom fishing, do focus on the fact that cash flows are lagging way behind reported profits and receivable days up more than 7-8 times in last 3 years
#Paytm
current market cap is around Rs 38,500 crore (~ USD 5 bn)
This is similar to what it was being valued at in Aug 2016
Wonder what's happening to private market valuations of other startups
Curious case of Adani Green Energy
4.4 lakh cr market cap with TTM sales of just 4,600 cr and PAT of 470 cr
Stock up 64x in 3 years
Will Adani be the new ADAG or are we missing something?
Disclosure: No recommendation, holding or coverage on stocks mentioned
What's happening in the CNG space 🧵
While everyone has been talking about EVs and looking for investment opportunities, did you know, major changes are happening in the CNG segment and significant growth is expected over next 8-10 years
Let's look at few key insights
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As value investors the biggest trap we fall into is when we start describing a normal good business with strong tailwinds as high quality business or business with moats