JW Mason @JWMason1 Twitter profile

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JW Mason

1 month

Here is the text of a long talk on Keynes and socialism that I gave in Chicago a couple of weeks ago. It also functions as a kind of manifesto for the book on money that @arjun_jayadev and I are almost finished with.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

14 days

This one I just reproduced myself. Perhaps the most noteworthy thing here is not the nonsense content, but the fact that the first hit is an AI ripoff site that stole the Onion’s story.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

It's hard for me to understand how anyone looks at the experience of the past few years and concludes that the kind of industrial policy being pursued by the US (call it "derisking" if you like) has not been effective.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

14 days

The people who control our productive activity want to burn as much as electricity as possible to run their plagiarism and trading-card machines, while their Chinese peers are focused on producing electric cars that people want to buy. The solution? Don't let people buy the cars.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

One way of making sense of this is that when economists talk about inflation, they mean the change in prices over the past 12 (or sometimes 3) months, but people experience inflation as the change in price over some longer period. It's not obvious why 12 months is correct.

Doug Henwood

@DougHenwood

20 days

I know the news about the CPI in great detail. I was also stunned when I spent $72 on a bag of groceries yesterday. You've never had that experience?

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

Best account I have seen on the violent suppression of student protests at City College last night.

NYPD Raids CUNY's City College, Violently Arrests Students, Then Hoists American Flag - Hell Gate

Hundreds of officers burst through the City College gates, clearing out a Gaza solidarity encampment.

hellgatenyc.com

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

Jodi Dean, a tenured professor at Hobart and William Smith College, has been suspended from teaching because of a political opinion she posted. Tis is an obvious and blatant violation of the most basic principles of academic freedom.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

16 days

Between 1988 and 2018, Chinese households at every point in the income distribution saw annual income growth 5-6 points higher than households in the US, Russia or France.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

What a fantastic graph from @JosephPolitano , showing both how thoroughly Keynesian the economy is in normal times, and how exceptional the pandemic period was. (I didn't even know this survey existed.)

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

The point of this picture is that the inflation problem in the US is basically solved. But there's also a larger point: There's no such thing as "the" inflation rate. There are just different prices changing in different ways, and a range of plausible ways to summarize them.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

10 days

I'm still puzzled why the change in prices over the 12 months is the central concern of macroeconomic policy, worth throwing millions of people out of work for. While the change in prices over the past 24 or 36 months is irrelevant, meaningless, not worth thinking about at all.

JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

People talk as though "prices are a little higher than they were a year ago" is an economic fact, while "prices are a lot higher than they were several years ago" is a subjective feeling. But they are both equally factual.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

People talk as though "prices are a little higher than they were a year ago" is an economic fact, while "prices are a lot higher than they were several years ago" is a subjective feeling. But they are both equally factual.

JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

One way of making sense of this is that when economists talk about inflation, they mean the change in prices over the past 12 (or sometimes 3) months, but people experience inflation as the change in price over some longer period. It's not obvious why 12 months is correct.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

17 days

I can't get over the fact that this is the response to a political protest on an American campus in 2024. And not, you know, a still from a movie or videogame about a near-future dystopian police state.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

@skylar_kant Yeah good point.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

It's striking how many of the mainstream responses to Isabella Weber have been like this: Not debating her arguments but trying to exclude her from the conversation entirely.

Brian Callaci

@brian_callaci

4 months

One thing that bugs me is Conlon's "greedflation" paper doesn't even cite Weber's work. He just waves off the argument, and chooses to debate a different paper more to his liking.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

16 days

@HeerJeet Well, it seems like what we are doing is threatening to starve a bunch of people if Israel doesn't get what it wants.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

This is an admirable letter. And, a reminder that the suppression of protests is not being done by universities as such, but by specific administrators. The faculty have as much claim to speak for "the university" as the President or Trustees do. Whatever the law may say.

Amy Kapczynski

@akapczynski

1 month

Yale faculty to Yale administration: hands off our students.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

13 days

Good from Dani Rodrik.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

10 days

How it started / how it’s going

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

I've mostly dropped out of the inflation debate over the past few months. Catching up now by reading @JosephPolitano and @employamerica . And what I'm learning is that the case that inflation was entirely a matter of transitory supply disruptions is even stronger than I'd thought.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

This was a very predictable consequence of higher rates.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

Argentine province responds to austerity by planning to issue its own quasi-currency. No strong views on the merits of this, but surprised not to have heard more about it.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

16 days

If you are angry about the Chinese model of industrialization, if you think it is unfair, if you think it is something that demands retaliation from the US, what you are against is the largest rise in poor people's living standards over one generation in human history.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

"Anti-trust as allocator of coordination rights" is on the very short list of articles that have completely reshaped my thinking on something, such that it's now my default starting point on the topic. Super excited to read this one.

Sanjukta Paul

@sanjuktampaul

3 months

Presenting this chapter (for the first time) @ Duke Law shortly -very excited!!

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

This is the third time I have used Sven Beckerts' Empire of Cotton as the central reading for my economic history class. And I have to say, every time I am more impressed by it - especially compared with other big histories of capitalism that I've tried.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

Not relevant to the specific point being made here, but this is in general a much better way to contextualize historical dollar figures than the usual approach using price indexes.

Nathan "FOIA" Tankus

@NathanTankus

1 month

for context 2800 dollars in 1967 was around a touch under 40% the median household income.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

5 months

Here is a long post laying out 13 big questions about money, drawing on the class on alternative perspectives on money that I taught last fall. It has lots of links.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

Here's my latest for Barron's: Thank Full Employment, Not AI, for Rising Productivity. As I often do with these things, it's an attempt to make connections between heterodox theory and the broader policy conversation.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

16 days

And to be clear, China has achieved this by rejecting the advice of the IMF and the Washington Consensus in a whole range of areas - strong capital controls, a large share of public enterprises, public control of credit, aggressive countercyclical policy, and so on.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

13 days

Wow. Good for Nathan for challenging him.

Nathan "FOIA" Tankus

@NathanTankus

13 days

I want to a closed screening of "The Commandant's Shadow" last night. By far the most disturbing experience was Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss's grandson, Kai Höss, & his Christian evangelism for Israel. You can listen to me confront him in the clip below.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

I don't see why the change in the CPI over the past 12 months is reality, but the change over 15 months, or 24 or 36 months, is just "perception". It seems quite reasonable that fully updating the benchmark for what things "should" cost takes more than a year.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

11 days

@BigMeanInternet I think there are a lot of people who genuinely can’t understand how the lives of a few tens of thousands of people in Gaza could be more important than getting the right person to run the FTC.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

14 days

I personally am in favor of liberalizing IP laws. But it��s weird that we’ve gotten to a point where these companies can just copy and paste someone else’s work and sell it, while the rules still exist for the rest of us.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

I might even go a step further- there’s a fair amount of overlap between financial sanctions (imposed from the outside) and capital controls. If a country’s rich find that any wealth accumulated abroad is at risk of being seized, that’s a big help for any developmental project.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

"There’s .. a disconnect between the levels of clean technology deemed necessary by Washington when talking about climate change, and the levels considered excessive when confronting China." Nice piece on the Biden admin's new anti-green mercantilism.

Yellen Junks 200 Years of Economics to Block China Clean Tech

The Treasury secretary’s plan is a protectionist disaster that will impede the path to net zero.

www.bloomberg.com

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

I just put up a guest post from the great Michael Kinnucan on the future of health care reform. I'm very proud to have this piece on the blog - it reframes the debate over health care reform in what I think is a really smart and productive way.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

US corporations are issuing at bonds at a much faster clip than they were a few years ago. Things like this - it's not so unusual - should prompt some serious rethinking of exactly how monetary policy is supposed to affect the economy.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

It's *not* the case that inflation really is 3% or whatever but people perceive it as higher because groceries are more expensive than they were a few years ago. The change in prices over the past several years is just as much an economic fact as the change over the past year.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

The political power of health care providers means that it's easier to spend public money to expand coverage if you *don't* try to find cost savings to cover it. It's easier to spend more if it's not "paid for", in other words - the opposite of a conventional budget constraint.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

23 days

The two high points of the internet, as far as I'm concerned, were the LBO-Talk mailing list in the late 1990s, and Crooked Timber comments threads in the early 2010s.

New Left EViews

@NewLeftEViews

23 days

I was trying to find one of those takedowns of Berman by that legendary hater Alex Cockburn, and randomly stumbled across this @JWMason1 @CoreyRobin . Remember when the comment section of Crooked Timber had some of the best exchanges.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

This has seemed like a big part of the story to me for a while. Glad to see it explored more systematically.

Arin Dube

@arindube

2 months

Great new work by @S_Stantcheva on why people hate inflation, following up on Shiller ('99). Big reason: people tend to ascribe wage gains to own efforts, and price inflation to policy. Esp true for those changing jobs (key source of recent wage gains).

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

I was talking to a Turkish friend recently and asked him what it was like living in a country with really high inflation. He said that it wasn't so bad directly, his wages kept up and soon. The real problem was how hard it was to decide if the price of something was reasonable.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

The short-term impact is debatable. But over a longer horizon it seems hard to deny that othe effect of higher interest rate hikes will be to make housing more expensive, not less.

David Stein

@DavidpStein

2 months

I wrote this in the summer of 2021. “The Fed’s conventional medicine of higher interest rates is not a good tool for combating rental inflation. In fact, it could be directly counterproductive…by making new investment more costly…”

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

27 days

The kids are all right.

Jaweed Kaleem

@jaweedkaleem

27 days

A standing ovation for Asna Tabassum, USC valedictorian, and cheers for her “resistance to genocide” minor today at the USC student awards ceremony

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

A core Keynesian idea in the international sphere is that trade flows are mainly a function of income growth rather than relative prices. IMO this is important background to current industrial-policy debates. If I had time to write anything, would love to write something on this.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

The unprecedented surge in investment in electronics manufacturing, and only electronics manufacturing, immediately after the CHIPS Act was passed, seems about as close to a smoking gun as you are ever going to get.

Skanda Amarnath

@IrvingSwisher

2 months

One important fact on the manufacturing construction hockey-stick trajectory: Manufacturing plant expenditure hockey stick is solely for Computers & Electronic Products (NAICS 334), and Electrical Equipment (NAICS 335). Other segments are either respectable or unremarkable

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

7 months

Here is a new blog post on Marx and money, starting from the chapter on Marx in @stefeich 's (excellent) book The Currency of Politics.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

The relationship between new construction and housing costs is a question where one can find extremely smart people with reasonable priors holding diametrically opposed positions with great confidence. (As seen on this thread.)

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

1 month

One of the worst anti-YIMBY arguments I can imagine. Clearly nobody knows the exact number of units needed to depress rents to a certain amount. But the goal would be to keep build until a certain affordability threshold is reached.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

Economists tend to assume that everyone always knows the price of everything but of course that isn't true. Figuring out how much to pay for something is informationally very costly, we depend on all sorts of heuristics.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

22 days

This is an important debate. And unlike some other debates, I think it's one where there's still a lot of space for intellectual arguments to shift the outcome.

Dani Rodrik

@rodrikdani

23 days

My take on the green subsidies trade war. Put up tariffs if you must, but the moral, economic, environmental arguments are on the side of those that subsidize green products, not those who want to tax them.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

16 days

Similarly, Thomas Piketty finds that while income inequality has increased in China in recent decades, it is still substantially more equal than the United States. And unlike in the US, even people at the very bottom have benefited from economic growth.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

What’s the opposite of a bond vigilante?

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

16 days

@_TimBarker @DanielaGabor That the promise of Bidenomics has been sacrificed on the alter of imperialism, I think.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

16 days

From his lips to G-d's ears.

Democracy Now!

@democracynow

16 days

“We are seeing important processes that are leading to the collapse of the Zionist project,” says Israeli historian Ilan Pappé. “I’m really hopeful there will be a different kind of life for both Jews and Arabs between the river and the sea under a democratic, free Palestine.”

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

A year or two ago, I had some arguments with people who thought that higher rates would bring down rents. This idea never made sense to me. If you raise the cost of a close substitute for X, what do you expect will happen to the price of X?

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

I'm skeptical of both specific claim and expansive definition of "human capital." But larger issue does need to be taken seriously - ubiquity of pass-thru corps and similar tax-avoidance strategies is a problem for distinguishing labor from capital income.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

100%. And even more true when it comes to policy. A major shortcoming of economics education is that people are trained to think of regressions (or causal inference) as coextensive with empirical work.

Clint Ballinger

@clintballinger

2 months

@gonglei89 Much of interest in the social sciences is not drawn from a larger population; ie, is not a question of inference at all. Bayesian and frequentist approaches are therefore both misapplied

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

Struck by the enthusiasm with which the police officer pulls down and crumples up the Palestinian flag.

Bruno Maçães

@MacaesBruno

1 month

What the hell is this? US police think they are an army conquering a plot of land

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

There was lots of debate over the past couple years about the merits of measuring inflation over 12 months vs 3 months or whatever. But pretty much all of it was about what is best for *predicting* inflation. Little or none about what is relevant in terms of inflation's effects.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

It seems entirely natural to me that when people think of something like "how much should I expect to spend on groceries" they will draw on experience over a longer period than just the past year.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

"Real".

Brian Callaci

@brian_callaci

1 month

Monopsony

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

An eloquent and appropriately angry post on campus protests and the police, on Forever Wars.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

11 days

Quite frankly, nobody wants to hire this guy because no one wants a racist asshole as a colleague.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

Michael's starting point is that there is no reason, in principle, why you can't get to universal coverage by incrementally expanding a system initially focused on full-time workers at large businesses. The problem in the US is the seeming impossibility of controlling costs.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

16 days

People in the bottom 5 percent in China saw income grow by an average of almost 5% annually over those 30 years, compared with income growth of essentially zero at the bottom of the US distribution.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

14 days

On further examination, another funny thing is that the SEO ripoff site they credit with this is otherwise all about fracking. So it seems that its algorithm picked up this story by mistake also.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

This seems reasonable but I'm not sure it's so obvious. It seems to me that there is a lot of inertia and path dependence in the income-expenditure relationship, so a temporary impulse can have lasting effects.

Dow

@mark_dow

4 months

Regular reminder: fiscal deficit doesn’t stimulate the economy; an *increase* in the fiscal deficit stimulates the economy. Conversely, a smaller fiscal deficit is contractionary, even if it is a deficit. That’s how GDP works. cc: @SaraEisen @carlquintanilla

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

There is no sense in which one of those values is real and the rest are perception. They're all equally real. The parsimonious answer to why people describe inflation as high despite modest price rises over the past year is that they look at price increases over a longer period.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

@Econ_Marshall But wait! The etymology of "discipline" is from Latin disciplina, which means teaching, learning or knowledge. So when he says "disciplinary consequences," maybe what he means is that the results of student protests are a contribution to the educational mission of the university.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

Big thanks to @azacharyhale and the other John Jay econ grad students who organized this event.

John Jay LPE

@johnjay_lpe

2 months

Powerhouse panel with @claraemattei , @JWMason1 , An Li, and Jamee Moudud (moderated by @MarthaMcCluskey )

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

The big question Michael ends with: Will the next round of health care reform be an effort to shore up the crumbling employer-provided insurance system? Or will it take the decay of the employer-based system as an opportunity to strengthen and expand the existing public systems?

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

Reform measures like the ACA that accept this constraint have been successful on their own terms, significantly reducing the number of uninsured. But rising costs continue to undermine employer-provided insurance

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

Another implication of this is that while inflation is certainly a genuine and sometimes important phenomenon, it is a mistake to think that it is the sort of thing that one can put a definite numerical value on.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

7 days

My impression is that this has been true for a while - relative to a liberalized counterfactual, China's currency interventions have had the effect of strengthening their currency rather than weakening it.

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

7 days

FT story summarizing the pressure the PBOC now faces to allow additional depreciation of the already weak (in real terms) yuan. Alternative headline would be market wants to push the world's biggest manufacturing surplus up more!

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

This is a very odd mistake for Stephen Marglin to make.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

The question about protests specifically is: Does the government derive its authority from the consent of the governed? Or do we have the right to give or withhold consent only insofar as it is granted by the government?

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

First day back in the undergraduate classroom since before the pandemic. I'm pleased to report that John Jay students are every bit as great as I remembered them. And Ta-Nehisi Coates' "The Case for Reparations" still works really well as a day-one economic history reading.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

I feel like for maybe 5 or 10% of interesting questions in economics, a regression is a suitable tool. But it’s clear talking to new PhDs that they’ve learned it’s the only one - most of them have no idea that there is anything else you might do with data.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

10 days

This is a symptom of the lack of an account of what the costs of inflation actually are. If you can't say *why* it matters that prices are higher than they were a week or a month or a year or 5 or 10 years ago, you won't be able to say which of those matters more.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

We joke that LLMs are just a new incarnation of the eternal scam energy formerly embodied in crypto or the metaverse. Here’s the most literal example I’ve seen- a company raises money to make an NFT-based VR game, then drops that, renames itself, and raises more money to do “AI.”

Ed Zitron

@edzitron

1 month

This week's newsletter: Less than a year before the Rabbit R1 was announced, Rabbit Inc had another name, and was hyping an NFT metaverse project that it raised $6m to build, promising an MMORPG, a comic, a tv show and a literal rocket shot into space.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

15 days

Over the past 30 years, says Milanovic, “China was the most important engine of global inequality reduction" - the reason for global income becoming more equal for the first time in 200 years. If you have any kind of egalitarian politics, seems like something you should approve.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

Glad to see AOC standing up to the xenophobic hysteria here.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

@AOC

3 months

I’m voting NO on the TikTok forced sale bill. This bill was incredibly rushed, from committee to vote in 4 days, with little explanation. There are serious antitrust and privacy questions here, and any national security concerns should be laid out to the public prior to a vote.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

I admit I am increasingly unhappy with people who write things like "a university is just a hedge fund with a school building attached to it." It seems to me that that is conceding the critical terrain of struggle in advance.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

My own rather boring (but underrepresented on twitter) view is that this is actually a quite difficult question whose answer is not at all obvious.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

The sensible view, it seems to me, is that hiking enough to trigger widespread financial distress and defaults can have a big effect on real activity. But anything short of that probably has no effect at all. As I've argued before:

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

Powell has repeatedly talked about the need to limit wage growth to a level consistent with price stability. (As have many others.) I think this idea needs more critical scrutiny than it has gotten

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

Exactly how long seems like an empirically tractable question. A reasonable first guess might be the people's mentalprice benchmarks have an annual decay rate of 0.5, i.e. people put half as much weight on prices two years ago as on prices one year ago.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

3 months

In a country that sends 50,000 actual children to adult prisons each year, Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyers want him to be sentenced as a child because he wears shorts to work.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

10 days

Here for instance is Paul Krugman, stating as a matter of uncontroversial fact that inflation means the year over year change in prices, and that anyone who compares with prices further ago is at best confused and at worst an inflation truther.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

Yes, I realize that the reason for the demand for sovereign bonds is that investors expect rate cuts. But that's exactly the point - bond yields in Europe depend entirely on the actions of the ECB. Not at all on the fiscal position of the issuing government.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

4 months

Robert Gordon, 1988. Does the experience of the past 35 years give us any reason to think different?

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

17 days

A question you can ask yourself is, who do I think is the hero in these pictures? Which of these people do I admire?

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

2 months

Happening this afternoon. Join us.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

15 days

According to Branko Milanovic, Chinese income growth in the decade up to 2018 was greatest for those in the lower-middle part of the distribution. While in the US that's where growth was lowest.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

13 days

Turns out the fracking site copied the Onion piece on purpose. So only one level of algorithm fail after all.

$@resfraccorp$

ResFrac

@resfraccorp

13 days

@JWMason1 Hi! ResFrac here. Happy to solve this mystery. When the Onion article came out, it used a photo of a professor who is an advisor to our company. They did not ask permission to use his pic, but we were amused by it. So we posted it to our blog with a link to the original article.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

If you construct an "experienced inflation" measure that way, it looks like this (the red line). It's normally just a bit above official inflation, but comes down more slowly after a period of high inflation. As of April it's still about 3.5 points above where it was prepandemic.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

Statement by the Professional Staff Congress, which represents CUNY faculty and staff.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

17 days

Here is a new blog post, based on teaching Joshua Freeman's Behemoth this year.

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

20 days

@brian_callaci Are Chinese workers grateful for US tariffs, do you think?

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JW Mason

@JWMason1

1 month

@elham_saeidi If it were 1850 and I were a Northerner, I would have thought that Southern slaveholders were clearly in the wrong. Even though they certainly would have told me that you had to actually be from the South to understand.

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