Program Director
@PENamerica
. Historian. He/him. Personal acct. 'It is a terrible transgression to intimidate and awe teachers with fear of want.' — C. Darrow
The censorious political attacks on higher ed rest on the assumption that higher ed cannot defend itself. Today, we prove that higher ed is not defenseless. It has its champions, all across the country, ready to fight for the intellectual freedom that is a university's core.
We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
A basic fact about Florida's ban on AP African American Studies: since the creation of the Advanced Placement program in 1952, no state has ever refused to certify an AP course until now. No state has put politics ahead of its students' access to early college credit until now.
It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end
Thanks to
#KavanaughHearings
, I've heard from a number of men this week who are terrified that they'll be falsely accused of rape. Good news, men: Kavanaugh hasn't been falsely accused, and you won't be either. Don't believe me? Let's look at the evidence.
The text of DeSantis' higher education bill has been released. It's as terrifying as the press release suggested it would be. Florida HB 999 would enact the most draconian and censorious restrictions on higher education in the history of this country.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.
Don't change the subject, Chris. You banned an entire program at a college because you don't like the ideas it reflects. My friend built that program with her own two hands, over decades. You destroyed it in an hour. That's authoritarianism. Guilty as charged.
Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Don't change the subject, Chris. You threatened a professor because he said you were "demeaning and rude" to a student. Then the professor was fired.
Should professors be fired for defending students against trustees? Is that what a classical liberal education looks like?
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.
It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.
The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.
Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.
That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.
This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.
An AP language student in SC, assigned to read Ta-Nehisi Coates, instead wrote to the school board: "I am pretty sure a teacher talking about systemic racism is illegal in South Carolina."
The school board banned the book.
My latest for
@PENamerica
.
This is what it looks like when European authoritarianism is imported to an American college. They banned gender studies in Hungary. It destroyed intellectual freedom at their universities. Now, they're doing it at New College. It's a scandal and a disgrace.
This proposal goes far beyond banning DEI and CRT. It rewrites universities' mission statements, forces them to deprioritize some majors, effectively ends tenure, and hands control of core curricula to political appointees. It's an all-out assault on the autonomy of higher ed.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday announced plans to block state colleges from having programs on diversity, equity and inclusion, and critical race theory.
As outlined in the release, the bill would ban diversity statements, make tenure and faculty hiring committees meaningless, and centralize control of core curricula and mission statements in the hands of political appointees. Unexpectedly, it would also ban gender studies majors.
FL HB 999 would end academic freedom, shared governance, and university independence in FL public higher education in favor of one man's authoritarian control of public university decisions. It would be the end of FL higher ed as a space of open inquiry and free expression.
Free expression and higher education advocates must fight these provisions with everything we have, in Florida and in any other state where they appear. FL HB 999 is the central battleground for the soul of higher education. If we stand on the sidelines, we will lose.
"Critical Race Theory rhetoric" also cannot be used in the hiring process -- whatever that means. There's a lot of "whatever that means" language in here, enforced by bureaucrats of DeSantis' choosing.
Wow—unprecedented bravery, and fury, from
@CollegeBoard
: "We deeply regret not immediately denouncing FDOE's slander. … We have made the mistake of treating FDOE with…courtesy…but they have instead exploited this courtesy for their political agenda. "
False accusations of rape do happen, but they are rare. Rarer than being struck by lightning -- in your house. If you're not lying awake at night worrying that lightning will come through your window and electrocute you, you shouldn't worry about being falsely accused of rape.
Why don't more women lie about being raped? Because the disbelief and ridicule they receive is so devastating that the lie isn't worth it. They don't have any motive. They can try to "ruin" a man, but most of the time it doesn't work, and they get ruined instead.
All gen ed courses must promote "the values necessary to preserve the constitutional republic" through traditional, historically accurate" coursework. "Courses based on unproven, theoretical, or exploratory content" are banned from gen ed; the ban enforced by DeSantis appointees.
This was the elected president of the Student Senate at New College. Here, Chris admits he could have gotten the charges dropped at any time. Requiring the student to transfer in order to avoid criminal charges isn't "magnanimity." It's political retaliation.
In summary: you literally can't pay women to falsely report sexual misconduct. But as Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated, you can certainly pay them not to report sexual misconduct that actually happened.
Let's keep our eye on the ball here. Florida students are now banned from equal access to education, available in every other state, about ideas that will help prepare them for college and adulthood. That's an act of censorship. It's shameful, it's wrong, and it hurts kids.
Absolutely devastating. SB 266 will do irreparable damage to public higher education in Florida. Students, faculty, and staff at Florida institutions: I'm so sorry.
Ron DeSantis earned a history degree from Harvard. Yet Florida students, unlike the rest of the country, are banned from learning from a curriculum developed in part by Harvard historian Henry Louis Gates. They're being deprived of access to the experience their own governor had.
The AP African American Studies course was developed by a star-studded panel of scholars, piloted in 60 high schools across the country (including one in Florida), and approved by the College Board. Yet Florida's leadership is banning it for every school and student in the state.
Another thing. People ask, why did she wait 40 years to come forward?
@jentaub
explains in this excellent piece. Coming forward is incredibly traumatic. But if he's going to be ruling on the rights of 150 million women? Suddenly it becomes more urgent.
What we should worry about instead is what happens to women like Dr. Blasey Ford when they tell the truth and are still not believed. What's been said about Dr. Blasey Ford would land most people in therapy for years. Meanwhile, Kavanaugh's nomination still marches forward.
The takeaway: "If a woman without any history of dramatic falsehoods says she went home with a man and, after they’d kissed a while consensually, he held her down and forced her into sex—in the absence of compelling evidence to the contrary, you can just assume it’s true."
I'd go so far as to say that, if you have two credible accusers who don't know each other, you have removed the possibility of reasonable doubt. Kavanaugh has three credible accusers, and two more potentially credible ones. The chance that they're all lying is virtually nil.
Today, DeSantis tried to make this about the course's inclusion of Black queer theory and criminal justice reform (both part of Black thought). It's really much simpler: Florida students, unlike students in every other state, being prevented from learning about influential ideas.
Second - and this is crucial - not a single false accusation mentioned in that article involved more than one accuser. With multiple accusers who are credible and don't know one another, the possibility of a false accusation is exponentially lower.
Also: "False accusers almost never tell stories that could, by any stretch of the imagination, be seen as an innocent misunderstanding." If Dr. Blasey Ford wanted to lie about Kavanaugh, she'd accuse him of torturing her in a basement, not of attempted molestation at a party.
Banning an academic department because you don't like the ideas its professors hold is the ultimate violation of academic freedom. Academic freedom at New College is dead.
When it comes to Kavanaugh, false accusations of this type simply don't happen. Dr. Blasey Ford is telling the truth. So are Deborah Ramirez and Julie Swetnick. If you know someone who's faced accusations like these, it's almost certain they actually did what they're accused of.
Breathtaking control of viewpoint and content throughout all academic activity in the entire Florida system. All colleges and universities are forbidden to spend any money to fund pedagogy, programming, or activities that “espouse diversity, equity, and inclusion.”
@nickandpolly
Innocent until proven guilty is a legal standard, not a job interview standard. Ask your friend if she'd expect to get hired by a new firm if stories like this were flying around about her. No one's suggesting Kavanaugh should be in jail without a trial, just not on the Court.
This has happened before. During the Clinton impeachment, Larry Flynt offered $1 million to anyone who said they'd had an affair with a GOP congressman. Only one woman got paid, and the man she accused, Bob Livingston, admitted she was telling the truth.
The same argument goes for people who say memories are unreliable. Well, sure: people often don't remember the face of a stranger who attacks them. They do remember when it's someone they know. And three women don't misremember being attacked by the same man.
At the same time, I want to acknowledge that there ARE false rape accusations. So let's take a look at what those look like, courtesy of this outstanding article by
@sannewman
.
Teen girls trying to cover up a pregnancy or a missed curfew. People with extensive criminal convictions for fraud. People with Munchausen's Disorder who fabricate a million health conditions. People seeking revenge, usually for petty things like someone stealing their truck.
Correction: DeSantis earned a history degree from Yale (where Gates taught from 1976-1985; they did not overlap), not from Harvard. DeSantis did earn a law degree from Harvard Law School while Gates was teaching elsewhere at the university. I regret the error.
In one of the most dramatic and unexpected wins of the year, Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon just line-item vetoed the legislature's DEI ban at the University of Wyoming, citing the risk to federal grant funding for scientific research.
How hard is it to get someone to falsely accuse a man of rape? In the last week of the 2016 election, Democratic donors Susie Tompkins Buell and David Brock decided to find out. They offered $700,000 to any woman who would say Donald Trump raped her.
So these women had whatever normal incentives women have to lie about rape, plus added fistfuls of cash. The result? "It was not productive. One woman requested $2 million, Bloom said, then decided not to come forward. Nor did any other women."
First, go back and read that article by
@sannewman
. When false accusations do happen, they follow specific patterns and are made by specific types of people. They're not random or hard to predict. Those accusers don't behave like Dr. Blasey Ford.
I'm glad people are finally taking Oprah seriously as a presidential candidate. I've been talking about this possibility for years, really ever since Trump announced his campaign. So as a historian of charisma, here are my thoughts on Oprah for president.
Wrong. When taxpayers fund a playground, everyone gets to use it, not just the popular kids. When they fund a college, all ideas are up for debate there, not just the popular ones. A college that teaches only the ideas politicians like isn't a college. It's a propaganda mill.
Fact check: FALSE 🛑
Professors, like any other American, have a right to freely express their ideas without government censorship.
They don’t have a right to taxpayer funding to express their ideas at a public (state) institution.
You say, maybe Dr. Blasey Ford gets a book deal from this. But sexual assault survivors are 13 times more likely to attempt suicide than the avg. person - and report public victim blaming is one of the main reasons. All that for a book deal? Not worth it.
People say, these women all want to protect Roe. Okay, fine. So did all the women David Brock offered fistfuls of cash to in November 2016. Wanting to protect Roe, plus fistfuls of cash, wasn't enough to convince them to make false accusations. It's just too traumatic.
It turns out there have been studies on the types of people who make false rape accusations -- and what's amazing is that they all fall into a few consistent categories.
Here's Chris expressing his views on campus free expression. It's no wonder he thinks it's fine for a trustee to threaten a faculty member's job after being criticized, and even better if that faculty member is subsequently fired.
One more: an article from
@DLind
with overwhelming evidence that between 2% and 10% of rape accusations are false. The highest rate in a credible study was 10.3%. If someone quotes you a rate higher than that, they don't know what they're talking about.
On "non-credible" witnesses, consider Lisa Pennal, an obviously mentally ill woman found chained in the back of a truck in 1990. The arresting officer believed her anyway, and caught Ben Rhoades, the infamous "Truck Stop Killer." Always start by believing.
Also:
@jimhopper
on memory. Takeaway: people forget peripheral details of traumas but not central details. They might misidentify the face of a stranger rapist, but they don't misremember the identity of their classmate, whom they know, who attacked them.
And again, important to consider motive here. People who make up false accusations ALWAYS accuse people of sensational crimes. Look at Duke Lacrosse: gangraped on a bed of broken glass. If Dr. Blasey Ford were motivated by politics, her accusation would be far more extreme.
To those who know men who have been falsely accused: how many people do you know who have been sexually assaulted? Data says it's 27% of ALL women - and 7% of men. The assaults you don't know about are far more common than the false accusations you do.
Wanted to add a few more thoughts here on the main thread. Several people have responded with the statistic that between 2% (according to activists) and 10% (according to skeptics) of rape accusations are false. This is true. But, there's more to it.
Make no mistake: what's happening to higher ed in Florida will spread across the country. Governing boards captured, administrators fired, faculty and students silenced, ideas banned, mission statements rewritten, majors "deprioritized," programs canceled.
By the way, I've gotten a couple of requests to write up this Twitter thread as an article. While I'm grateful for the offers, it's women scholars, not me, whose work should be foregrounded on this issue. Two smart people to ask instead of me:
@sannewman
and
@NBedera
.
Don't be fooled by
@realchrisrufo
's self-portrayal as a mere edgy commentator. His actions at New College show us who he really is: an authoritarian censor bent on destroying public higher education and silencing ideas other than his own. My latest
@TIME
:
A couple of corrections, pointed out by readers. False accusations DO happen, but they're almost always easy to spot, and almost never "credible." (And some of these are still true.) Also, I confused some of the details of UVA with Duke Lacrosse. I regret the errors.
@HoffmannMaggie
I haven't. I really hope those can help! Anything that reduces these awful numbers would be fantastic. Probably nothing but a vaccine can reduce them to the point where we can stop suppression, but it might make suppression periods shorter and less onerous.
This on the same day New College of Florida's new board of trustees, stacked with out-of-state conservative pundits, fired the college president and replaced her with a political ally of the governor. Florida has declared war on public higher education.
For context, here's Chris's full quote. I don't think it's any better. He argues that the role of a college is not to welcome all ideas, but to promote one political vision of what is right. Ironically, he references a phrase codified by Diderot, who was jailed for his writings.
Erik Wallenberg "couldn't be silent" about the New College Trustees "bad-mouthing students and speaking down to them."
In response, Trustee Chris Rufo threatened his job. Then Wallenberg was non-renewed.
That's censorship. I won't stop talking about it.
@DLewis_19
It's pretty simple. Since making the accusation is devastating to the survivor, she might decide it's not worth it if he's just a successful guy out there in the world. If her attacker is about to be interpreting law for 150 million American women, suddenly there's more urgency.
DeSantis just signed the most destructive higher ed law I've ever seen. SB 7044 could make every FL public college lose accreditation, remove the quality control that sets legit colleges apart from diploma mills, and end financial aid for all FL students.
This is an odd comparison, but in some ways I think the world leader Oprah most resembles is Emmanuel Macron. Both are charismatic outsiders who electrify voters looking for a change, but then give them neoliberalism on steroids.
But if we can beat Trump with conventional politicians -- and right now it looks like we can -- I'd prefer someone like Liz Warren or Sherrod Brown who actually wants to change things.
Graduating New College student hands a copy of George Orwell's "1984" to DeSantis ally and New College's Interim President Richard Corcoran (who, notably, opted to sit in the back row and not shake graduates' hands)
You don't run Oprah when Democrats are polling well. You run Oprah to change the game -- to put the presidency in play when nothing else works. Right now, that's not where we are. So I vote no on Oprah for president...for now. Let's see what happens in 2018.
Chris Rufo at Stanford just now: "Governance has been delegated too much to faculty…faculty, you're not great at governance…and adminstrators are weak, temperamentally weak, they cave in the face of emotional manipulation. We are trying to restore authority, restore standards."
"What we see at New College, then, is a war on the American mind. ... Their assault on academic freedom assaults, too, the very notion of a thriving public sphere." Fantastic column on New College by
@onesarahjones
.
Oprah 2020 is not going to be a Bernie Sanders-style populist campaign. She's going to be Hillary with fewer scandals and stratospheric communication skills. She'll give us an electrifying presentation of utterly conventional politics.
One final thought. People ask, can Oprah win? The answer is yes. Oprah can always win. Will she win? Not necessarily. Should she run? Maybe not. Will she run? No one knows. But if she does, she can definitely win. And anyone who underestimates her is making a serious mistake.
How to destroy an acclaimed public liberal arts college in a single day: appoint an array of right-wing hacks to its board, including people from Hillsdale College and the Claremont Institute, academic troll and Trump voter Mark Bauerlein, and censorship advocate Chris Rufo.