Today we published an Investor Memo (FY24) for
@Stalwartsadvise
PMS Partners, covering portfolio performance, strategy, market outlook & risks.
Sharing the link to memo:
Feedback/critique welcome at pms
@stalwartvalue
dot com
I, along with my entire family, has been COVID +ve from last 12 days. While we had severe symptoms initially but luckily we are all in the recovery phase now🤞🏻
Here’s our experience & learnings in under 2-min:
Some hard investing truths & views from Kenneth Andrade, that 20-something, financially independent & full-time investors (with Papa’s money) would NOT be able to tell you on their Instagram or Youtube Video 1/n
Here's what Mr. Charlie Munger said in 2017 about why he doesn't invest in India, and why China & Singapore are better placed. Back then this offended almost everyone including his die hard followers, but most seem to be agreeing with him now.
(Thread) A self-employed professional in the financial services industry has broadly three areas to deal with:
1. Regulators/Compliance (SEBI, MCA, RBI, GST, IT..)
2. Investors (Behavioural Counselling..)
3. Investing/Research (Equities/Mutual Fund..)
1/n
At a student Q&A, Buffett was asked what surprises him the most.
He replied pointing to Bill Gates who was standing next to him:
"People look at Bill Gates and think they can't do what he did. They look at me and think they can do what I did"
H/t
@alphaideas
Warren Buffet started investing at age 11! Here’s our very own from Mumbai- At 14 this boy has already read some finest books on investing, is asking all the right questions & networking with fellow investors. Made my day, I look forward to meeting him & also his parents/mentor🙂
Indian Aviation - 2009 Vs 2019
No. of Airports - 2x
No. of Daily Flights - 6x
Still a long way to go, 2029 will be much denser with Indian aircraft fleet set to double over this time.
H/t
@ashwinidamani
It's been incredible seeing PPFAS grow from an AUM of Rs 500 Cr in 2015 to 15,000 Cr, despite following the unconventional 'pull' strategy. Congratulations
@PPFAS
👏well deserved. Parag sir must be super proud & I am sure the journey has just begun 🥂🙂
My presentation on ‘The Art of Selling Stocks‘ at Investors Carnival, Goa, Oct'18. Having an exit strategy is crucial to protect gains. The presentation covers SA's selling framework & case studies to help investors understand the nuances better:
After 9 months of waiting, series of documentation & declarations, Rs 5.5 lacs in fees, SEBI has finally approved our new corporate body’s Research Analyst application 🙏🏻
And now starts the painstaking transition from existing entity.!
Seeking FinTwit’s good wishes & blessings :)
(Thread) A self-employed professional in the financial services industry has broadly three areas to deal with:
1. Regulators/Compliance (SEBI, MCA, RBI, GST, IT..)
2. Investors (Behavioural Counselling..)
3. Investing/Research (Equities/Mutual Fund..)
1/n
A must watch video on 25yrs of listing of Motherson. What an amazing journey from 20 Cr sales during IPO in 92 > 60,000 Cr in 2018. I've had the privilege of listening to Mr Chand Sehgal at FIL. If we can identify one such promoter, it'll change the orbit.
[New Post] India’s market leaders: My 10 key observations and why these 60 listed companies must be on your watch-list, written for Safal Niveshak's OTB Newsletter:
We are in that phase of mkt where one is tempted to 'temporarily' switch from a sleepy potential 5x in 5 years to trade for a quick 20-30% in a few days. The key to wealth creation is to control that urge. If you must trade, at least keep your investing & trading capital separate
28 min of distilled wisdom by
@AswathDamodaran
where he covers
1). Corporate life cycle & hows it's shortening
2). Why its important for businesses to act their age
3). Valuation - Combination of story & financials
4). What makes for a great CEO
Hiren Ved's presentation made at Valuepickr meet is a treasure; covers his experience from sell side to buy side to floating Alchemy AMC. Full of nuggets of wisdom for money managers as well as individual investors. Link to download:
In 90s access to information was key. Today, the ability to filter noise is key. In over-researched markets like these, even the analytical edge isn't material. The real edge now is behavioral & time horizon- when most are obsessed about next qtr/yr, can one think of 3-5 yrs?
I pray to almighty we dont land in such a situation, but if at all virus/panic spreads further, any business operation that involves mass gathering/outdoor activity could take a massive hit. Some categories/names that came to mind while I was writing memo for Stalwart Subscribers
I am not an
#IRCTC
shareholder, but it still bothers me. Infact, it should bother all markets participants. System needs to be transparent & fair. We don’t want one more generation who believes in ‘Operator’ gaming the mkts. It cannot be random, surely not for a listed co.👇🏻
Avoiding following could weed out 90% of the fragile companies/frauds:
1 High debt 2 Long gross WC cycle 3 Missing op. cash flows 4 Low promoter holding / high pledging 5 Unexplained related party t/n 6 Frequent equity dilutions 7 Pays no/low tax & dividend 8 Cycle avg RoCE < 12%
An excellent essay by Mr. Anand Sridharan on 'Elements of Sound Judgment'. Decades of wisdom distilled into one essay backed with relevant examples. These ideas to serve not just in better decision-making in investing but also in life.
#MustRead
Key takeaway from AGM season that ended y'day, based on interactions with promoters across the country from different industries, from micro-caps to large-caps: Onground activity is upbeat, management mood is opposite compared to mkt, earnings growth going to surprise most of us.
A Thread. FASTag rollout has helped NHAI increase daily toll collection from Rs 65 Cr to Rs 80 Cr., a 23% jump. Over the weekend I crossed four tolls en route Chandigarh from Delhi and here’s a thread with some observations & thoughts. 1/n
9,520 have died in India & 4.3 lac globally. These are just 'numbers' until it happens to us or someone we know. I lost my next-door neighbor last week, a young & healthy individual with no pre-existing illness. He was hospitalized (on oxygen) for 10 days but couldn't make it 1/n
#FunFact
Promoters of following companies are real brothers:
Hindware (HSIL) - Largest in Sanitaryware & 2nd largest in Glass Bottles
Cera - 2nd Largest in Sanitaryware
Somany - 3rd Largest in Ceramic Tiles
Hindustan National Glass (HNG) - Largest in Glass Bottles
Enough! Too much pessimism & slowdown-talk are only going to push many of us to either exit or into inaction. Starting this 'positive' thread to periodically share sane voices who have seen multiple cycles & have rare ability to connect dots and see beyond these minor blips. 1/n
A WhatsApp forward regarding an incident with a Gurgaon resident. Please don't open car trunk from inside, get down and permit searching under your supervision
#mustread
Retweet to spread the word
Today’s interview with big bull Mr Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. An infectious bullishness and, as always, some amazing one liners there, with loads of wisdom to be smart investor and beyond. Goosebumps to see him talk about our nation & it’s potential🤞🏻
‘Usually, you don’t beat markets in the first 5-10 years. I did not beat markets for the first decade. All successful investors made big money only after 55 years of age, by then they have made most mistakes already & stop repeating them.’ 2/n
It’s a privilege and honour for shishya to share stage with his Guru. Had a great time delivering a guest lecture with Prof. Sanjay Bakshi at MDI, Gurgaon.
[Video] My presentation on 'Thematic Research on Pollution & Actionable Investment Ideas' presented at the SI investors meet yesterday. Feedback welcome.
Jack Ma turns 54: His Alibaba exit shows he takes his own advice - your 20s are for learning, your 30s and 40s are for risk-taking and your 50s are for doing what you're good at and training others.
As always, a very insightful interview with Kenneth Andrade. What rare ability to stay with value - moved swiftly from consumption in 2006 to NBFCs in 2011, Commodities in 2016 and now Infrastructure/Manufacturing. 30-min well spent:
A lot of wisdom condensed in this 49-min panel discussion of veterans - Mr. Bharat Shah, Mr. Ramdeo Agarwal, Mr. Hiren Ved & Mr. Shankar Sharma, moderated by
@Ajaya_buddy
My post on 'What Goes Behind Stock Research?' where I talk about Initial Research Vs Maintenance Research & returns per unit of stress, dwelling further upon an old post by Prof.
@Sanjay__Bakshi
, written for Safal Niveshak's Outside the Box newsletter:
2) I always thought technical analysis is all gas and what matters is 'just' the business behind the stock. I was wrong. Price-action, volumes, delivery data, liquidity/flows, index inclusion, etc. also matter & can add value even for fundamental/value investors especially for..
This Rs 72,000 Cr giant is eyeing more shelf space beyond dairy. The right-to-win will vary in each category based on competitive intensity and differentiation, but having a pan-India brand backed by one of the widest distribution networks, is a great starting point.
#Amul
…
Divya just released her 3rd industry report, this time on Agrochemicals, a 100+ pager covering sector & top 7 listed companies. Earlier she researched Luggage & Television- a great primer to understand these industries. Report can be accessed on her blog:
My report on 'Indian Agrochemical Industry' under the aegis of Mr.
@jatin_khemani
, Founder and CEO Stalwart Advisors.
Thank you so much sir for your constant guidance.
As net buyers of equity for several yrs to come, we shouldn't wish stock prices to go up in straight line- It's the volatility that creates opportunities. We've to live with it peacefully, to get rewarded.Else be content with 7% return of FD that preserves capital but not grow it
Why is paints industry dominated by just 3/4 players and is almost insurmountable? Why do incumbents enjoy such super normal profits? This short note by
@chondhe
covers it all..!
"Indian consumer is ruthless, more picky than even an American. 17,000 new brands were launched in India during last three years, only 0.5% survived" - Suresh Narayanan at Nestle's Analyst meet.
“Why flying is so expensive” An informative 10-min video that shows breakup of air ticket price and how only a tiny portion actually goes to the airlines:
1) In the beginning, everybody thinks bottom-up stock picking is the holy grail, I thought so too. Whereas, in reality, sectoral tailwinds/headwinds immensely matter and should never be ignored.
timing & optimizing the entry/exit better. 3) Value stocks without a catalyst are value traps. It's okay to wait for the catalyst and board the train 20-30% higher, but at least it will be a moving train and not a stationary one with an indefinite wait, capital is finite..
Got an opportunity to listen to the man behind the super inspiring Dakshana Foundation, Mr Mohnish Pabrai at FLAME, Pune. A difficult but most sustainable way out of poverty for a family (& its subsequent generations) is via education. 1/2
Promoters are smarter. In 2017, when stock prices were going up the roof, they were selling & yet investors were enthusiastically latching on. In 2018, its the opposite, seeing decent promoter buying in some companies. Insider buying is a good starting point for idea generation.
Some of these learnings got reaffirmed when I read about similar experiences of experienced investors like Hiren Ved and Rajashekhar Iyer, especially in the book Masterclass with super-investors. /End.
I like Pune airport. You get to straight walk to aircraft from the gate - no bridge or bus. Once there were two Indigo parked next to each other & boarding was on for both. I had to ask ground staff "Excuse me, which one of these is going to Delhi?" :)
I see almost all flights are full, industry utilization is ~88%, crude is at $70+ yet airlines say pricing is weak due to 'competition'. If they can't exhibit pricing power now, when would they? Shows no matter how well run a business may be, Industry matters.
#IndigoQ1Results
What happens when you buy a good biz. run by a great mgt. at reasonable valuations & hold for 7 years? Theory says you should make good money! But we have 0 returns (infact -ve) on this position. Reality: Shit happens. Diversification matters. Disc: Still holding 🤞🏻
There are various sources on the internet to learn about their business and management.
However, this presentation by
@Jatin_Khemani
of
@Stalwartsadvise
is probably one of the best sources to understand business, management, and valuation.
Stop staring at the scoreboard, instead focus on the game & ensure you stay in it long enough.
‘The best of Fund Managers (with all their might) have a 55% strike rate. On average, the ones who beat the index, have a strike rate of about 45%.’ 3/n
Switching to Jio from Airtel after being a loyal postpaid customer for 13+ years. Last one year has been terrible - no network at work as well as residence, in addition to frequent call drops. I understand 5.7 Cr Airtel users did the same during Dec 2018.
While thumb-rules like buy when nifty's p/e <18 or sell when its >24 are fine, sometimes it makes sense to understand what's behind these numbers. The following table comparing Dec 2007 & June 2019 does a great job in putting things into perspective.
H/t: ICICI Pru
This is one of the most insightful investing talks I've ever attended. In those 75 minutes sir actually took us through his 35+ years of investing with actual market data, events & case studies. The lessons shared are priceless. Will be sharing key takeaways on CFA blog soon.
An insightful interview by Pat Dorsey on how 'brand' as a moat is slowly becoming irrelevant, how the key to valuing a business is shifting from balance sheet to P&L, can management or owner-operator be a source of 'moat' & how to assess duopoly industries. Source:OutlookBusiness
Not all de-mergers create/unlock value. Understanding business and valuation remain the key. Here is the state of some hyped ones over the last couple of years!
#SpecialSituations
#Demergers
An odd GST rule - One can claim input credit on Business Travel only if hotel is booked in home state. Why would I book in Delhi? I reside there :)
For all the travel, not a single rupee of those 18% & 28% GST can be claimed as ITC despite it being a legitimate business expense.
55-min well spent listening to Rajiv Bajaj, such a grounded person. Shares his mistakes & key lessons for entrepreneurs on product differentiation, targetting, marketing, PR, parallels drawn with homeopathy & much more. Lots of wisdom for investors too:
On Scuttlebutt: ‘As opposed to interviewing distributors, a simple yet powerful scuttlebutt technique is to observe the manufacturing date of different brands. I did that with Jockey (Page) and compared with competing brands, that showed how quickly its stock was moving.' 17/n
An interesting summary showing segments within the upcoming capex opportunity of $900 Bn over the next 5 years which should ideally revive growth for the capital goods sector.
Source: Edelweiss
Truth about stock markets: Pick a suitable sample & timeframe, and you can literally prove anything.
Investing is an art - we should stop arguing on styles & focus on what works for us. There are many ways to reach destination (financial independence), lets enjoy the journey.
Kitex makes it easier for analysts to fill excel sheets by sharing quarterly and yearly revenue projections upto FY25. Noteworthy is the precision to second decimal place - for instance they see FY25 Turnover at Rs 2,165.07 Cr., an 18.73% growth over FY24.
Source: Investor Ppt
Fab interview of Mr.
@chokhani_manish
where he explains fiscal math in a simplistic manner and the only way out for Indian Govt.
@PMOIndia
@narendramodi
Sir we better monetize PSUs, before they decay like BSNL, and invest in Infra creation.
Vicarious learning is also not enough, one has to be invested in the market to go through those emotions. It takes one or two market cycles just to understand own psychology, mass psychology and to determine 'what works for me'.
9) Diversification is crucial no matter how deep your understanding of the business is, coz shit happens. 10) While formal education like CA/CFA/MBA can set the foundation right, there is no substitute for own experience; it is the biggest teacher in the market.
"Revenue is vanity. Profit is sanity. Cash is reality." is such a deep & profound way to capture how businesses need to operate & how investors need to evaluate them. A lesson often forgotten during rising market, though it never fails to haunt later
#Quess
#JainIrrigation
#NBFCs
Another great initiative for the masses by Gurudwara Bangla Sahab, Delhi - A pharmacy that sells medicines at cost. Always been a fan of this community and it’s initiatives right from day long langer (food) to subsidised diagnostic facilities etc.
Natural for us, lesser mortals, to also have some losers in our portfolio. It's really okay, make peace & move on.
On Portfolio: ‘I prefer 20-25 stocks & start with an equal-weight portfolio. I let business earn its place in the portfolio by outperforming. 4/n
A simple yet profound way to illustrate the difference between a commodity vs value-add product is that the former sells by weight whereas the latter sells by the unit; think Wheat vs Maggie | Rubber vs Footwear | Corn vs Act II. Exceptions will be there but largely holds true.
Feel blessed to host some of India’s finest investing minds in one-of-its-kind hybrid meet at Goa with live webcast. 14 insightful sessions & much awaited reunion for industry. Thanks to everyone for making it a memorable event
@IIC_Conference