Senior Policy Fellow
@ecfr
. Middle East analysis and European foreign policy, with focus on Israel/Palestine and Western Sahara. Mountain runner. Usual caveats.
🚨New
@ecfr
report 🚨 A weak and unpopular Palestinian Authority, combined with deepening rivalries among Palestinian leaders and factions, are increasing Palestinian political dysfunction, and exacerbating local and regional instability.
Israel is deliberately and methodically destroying the civil institutions and infrastructure that will be needed to govern and stabilise post-conflict Gaza.
Israel blows up Gaza's "Palace of Justice" compound which housed the Palestinian Supreme Court, the Court of Appeal, the Court of First Instance & the Magistrate.
100,000s of vital case documents are gone.
Deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure is a War Crime!
Appalling European vote count at last night's UNGA. Despite talking about importance of international law viz Russia's invasion of Ukraine, only 7 European states felt this legal right also applies to Palestinians. Shockingly 10 voted against ICJ referral, including UK & Germany.
The UN General Assembly votes to refer the question of the legality of Israel’s prolonged occupation of the Palestinian territories to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) -- an important milestone in efforts to hold Israel to account
The UN General Assembly votes to refer the question of the legality of Israel’s prolonged occupation of the Palestinian territories to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) -- an important milestone in efforts to hold Israel to account
Israel "made the desert bloom". "Your freedom is our freedom".
Celebrating the EU-Israel relation is one thing. But airbrushing the Palestinians and 50+ years of occupation out of existence as Von der Leyen is doing here in this video is deeply painful to watch.
Today we celebrate 75 years of Israel's independence and friendship with Europe.
A special message from President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen:
Come on
@guardian
, get it right: (a) East Jerusalem is not in Israel according to the UK (and international law). And (b) these were not two sided clashes. Did you not see the videos of Muslim worshippers being beaten up by Israeli police?
Lapid, who many European diplomats see as the great hope for relaunching a peace process: there are no West Bank settlements, there is no Israeli occupation, we are on our biblical lands.
«Ce ne sont pas des colonies. Nous vivons sur notre terre biblique.»
Y.Lapid, figure d’opposition à B.Netanyahou, exclut comme lui de démanteler les colonies illégales de Cisjordanie. Le constat du fossé entre les positions israéliennes et européennes en vue d’une après-guerre.
A Mubarak-era Egyptian joke that seems very apt in the current UK political context:
An advisor come to Mubarak during protests and tells him: "Sir, the Egyptian people are here to bid you farewell."
Mubarak looks puzzled at his advisor and says: "Why? Where are they going?"
Reactions of some European govts to Amnesty's Apartheid report seem to prioritise Israel's 'Jewishness' over Palestinian rights. This was easier to reconcile in a make-believe two-state peace process. But the entrenching one-state reality is bringing this tension to the fore.
According to Al Jazeera investigation, Israel has been using US made Boeing GBU- 31 JDAM and 39 SDB munitions against Gaza, incl in its destruction of tower-block hosting office of US news agency AP.
The devastation in Gaza is unconscionable. We must urge an immediate ceasefire. The killing of Palestinians and Israelis must end. We must also take a hard look at nearly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel. It is illegal for U.S. aid to support human rights violations.
Western moves to suspend UNRWA funding are reckless. It is the primary humanitarian provider in Gaza and an important stabiliser in the West Bank and neighbouring countries. A reduction in services will throw oil on a raging fire, exacerbating human suffering & security turmoil.
What could this look like in practice?
--> Extensive 'sterile' areas extending deep into Gaza, encompassing agricultural land and built up areas
*lopping off northern area of Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahiya, Jabalia (?)
*Significant expansion of buffer zones on eastern border KMs deep
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has called on people of Arab origin in Germany to clearly distance themselves from antisemitism and the militant group Hamas that runs the Gaza Strip.
The UAE recognises Israel’s illegal settlements. Israel recognises Morocco illegal annexation of Western Sahara. The Abraham Accords really are built on common values.
#Breaking
: The Morrocan Royal Court said in a statement that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the King of Morocco, Mohammed IV, in a letter that Israel decided to recognize Moroccan sovereignty in the Western Sahara.
My debut on
@BBCNewsnight
explaining Hamas’ internal leadership & power dynamics. The brutal violence unleashed by Hamas against Israeli civilians represents a take-over by hardliners in the military wing, sidelining political moderates who argued for engament & compromise.
I don't usually share personal stories. Was just in touch with close friends with young daughter, sheltering in Gaza City. All scared and fearing for their lives. Hearing from multiple sources describing Israeli strikes as worse than 2014 war. This violence needs to stop. Now.
Israel warned it would treat civilians in northern Gaza as hostile targets. (See below post).
And here you have it in practice, an Israeli tank firing on a civilian car on Gaza’s main Saleh al-Din road
Israel reportedly dropping leaflets in Gaza warning that any Palestinian civilian who "chooses not to evacuate from the north of the Strip to the south may be identified as a partner in a terrorist organization."
The US, UK & Germany argue it would be inappropriate for the ICJ to insert itself into a bilateral dispute without Israel’s consent. When compared to their response to Russia’s war on Ukraine, such opposition to Palestinian recourse in international law is even more disingenuous.
As the ICJ begins its hearing on the legal consequences of Israel's prolonged occupation of Palestinian territory here is my backgrounder on what to expect going forward.
Norway warns that the situation in Israel-Palestine "is moving towards a one-state reality without equal rights for all. This is unacceptable. The only acceptable alternative [to a two state solution] is one state with equal rights for all."
Israel adopts policy of collective punishment against Jenin — coupled with military incursions. It is difficult to see how this will do anything other than stoke Palestinian popular anger.
Israel vs Jenin:
-Halt to all entry of Arab Israelis into Jenin (major econ force)
-Halt of merchants into Israel
-No entry of Jenin district families into Israel for Ramadan
-Laborers to continue being allowed into Israel
2 attackers came from Jenin, 3rd Jenin cell interdicted
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo: “Even in war there are rules. Collectively targeting the entire population of Gaza is not possible, completely cutting off Gaza from water and energy is not acceptable."
Premier
@alexanderdecroo
scherp voor Israëlisch optreden in Gaza.
"Zelfs in een oorlog zijn er regels."
"Collectief de ganse bevolking van Gaza treffen kan niet, Gaza volledig afsluiten van water en energie is niet aanvaardbaar."
In other words, Emiratis will now have greater freedom to travel unrestricted in Israel and the West Bank (incl East Jerusalem) than Palestinians themselves.
UNRWA has 13000 staff members in Gaza. Israel alleges 12 employees (0.09% of total workforce) participated in the 7 Oct attack. The agency has fired them and is investigating. The suspension of funding at such a critical time by the US, IT, CA & AU is completely disproportionate.
Senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya says the group would accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders and dissolve its armed wing.
This is significant and consistent with what the group has signalled for decades. But the West has not successfully engaged.
A long thread on the UK's upcoming decision to proscribe the whole of Hamas as a proscribed terrorism organisation under the UK Terrorism Act 2000. (1) This goes beyond the EU's listing as it creates a series of criminal offences under UK law punishable by imprisonment and fines.
My new piece for
@972mag
👇
Palestine’s return to the ICJ, the court of last resort, some 20 years later, is in itself an indictment of the West’s continued failure to hold Israel to account for its unlawful behaviour.
The UN’s vote to request a ruling on the occupation is an indictment of the failure to hold Israel accountable — and carries risks and opportunities alike, writes
@h_lovatt
.
For historical comparison and what comes next: This is 1973 Yom Kippur war stuff. Hamas is going all in. So will Israel. No going back to status quo ante. Question now is if/when other factions and arenas (West Bank, southern Lebanon) become involved.
Big moment for 🇮🇱🇦🇪 and the settlements.
The Israel-UAE agreement on the promotion and protection of investments is finally public.
Has the UAE respected international law and its obligations to differentiate between Israel and the settlements as per UNSCR 2334?
The answer: No
Last May, Israel and the UAE signed a wide-ranging free trade agreement exempting 96% of Israeli exports from customs duties. It has now come into force, likely benefiting Israel's illegal settlements built on occupied Arab territory in contravention of international law.
The current wave of growing instability and violence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem offers a good indication of what a new intifada will look like. Whether we have reached that point yet is unclear. But developments are trending in that direction:
History is being made in Abu Dhabi – Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has arrived on the first official visit of an Israeli leader in the United Arab Emirates.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was received by UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed
@ABZayed
and an honor guard. 🇮🇱🤝🇦🇪
Mass displacement is escalating across Gaza, reaching over 187,518. Nearly half a million people (112k families) cannot get their UNRWA food rations.
--> Europeans must support efforts to open humanitarian channels via Egypt to support Gaza’s population.
"German media giant axel springer makes money on Israel's illegal settlements.
“From the river to the sea,” says an ad for Springer’s classifieds site in Israel, which lists homes for sale in Jewish-only West Bank settlements."
Big picture: we are witnessing the consequences of a rotten “peace process” paradigm. It’s right to call for deescalation, but to go back to what? Gaza is unliveable. Palestinians in EJ are being squeezed. Those in WB are alienated from PA and suffer daily rights abuses by Israel
Clip and save. Palestinians are not allowed to seek justice from international accountability mechanisms (ICC), and are not allowed to pursue non-violent grassroots campaigns (BDS). So what is the message that the United States is sending?
Sinister indeed. In other words, Palestinians cannot have equal rights in an independent state of their own. Nor can they have equal rights in one state. So we should embrace the supremacy and superior rights of one people over another. That system is called apartheid.
Palestine: Latest
#demolitions
of Palestinian structures in Khirbet Hamsa al-Foqa confirm once again a regrettable trend & are obstacle to 2-state solution. 🇪🇺 calls on 🇮🇱 to halt such demolitions,especially in context of
#COVID19
& its humanitarian impact
Israeli border policeman who killed unarmed Palestinian teen gets 9 months in prison for "causing death through negligence and causing severe bodily harm". As reminder, Ahed Tamimi was jailed for 8 months for slapping an Israeli soldier and making the occupation look bad.
What does "From the River to the Sea" mean? A grade 2 Israeli schoolbook may help. Its map shows everything from the river to the sea as Israel, a state that empowers the 7m Jews who live to rule over the 7m Palestinians, most dispossessed and most denied citizenship
The UK charity – Toremet – has resumed its channelling of funds to Israeli settlements – which the UK says violate international law. Between 2018-20, Toremet transferred more than £6million on behalf of 3rd parties to settlements implicated in Palestinian human rights abuses.
Given that the U.K. charity commission dragged its feet when it came to a British charity funnelling money to illegal settlements, it is also safe to assume its threshold for doing anything one way or the other is pretty high…
As they instinctively come out swinging behind Israel and its right to self defence, European governments should be mindful of what will come next: a massive disproportionate and no-holds barred military reprisal against Gaza by a humiliated Israeli nation, government and army.
The U.S. would be sacrificing one red-line (and thousands of Palestinians) to try to save another, rather than holding firm and saying no to Netanyahu.
As an exasperated Bill Clinton famously remarked in 1996: “Who the fuck does he think he is? Who's the fucking superpower here?”
The Palestinian security forces dressed in civilian clothes attacked protesters in
#Ramallah
by throwing stones & sticks
This man is a shop keeper who was filming the protest and was beaten badly &arrested with me at the police station. The pal police brought him an ambulance
We are now in a situation where the Arab League and quite a few members of the US Congress have taken more decisive positons against Trump’s Apartheid plan than the EU. The sad truth is that the EU is making itself irrelevant while failing to live up to its professed principals.
Israel orders 117,000 Palestinians in Khan Younis, including 50,000 IDPs, from the north, to move E & S to Rafah.
Another humanitarian crisis and another step in Israel's forced displacement of Gaza's population towards Egypt.
1.8 million, 80% of Gazans, are now displaced.
Israel's PM Yair Lapid: "Twenty percent of the [Israeli] population are Arabs and we can and should give them civil equality. [But] on the other hand, we won’t give them national equality, because this is the only state Jews have."
To be fair to the EU, it is far from alone in de-prioritising Palestinian rights. But it has spent years preaching values and human rights to others. Ultimately, brushing off AI's findings once again underscore how empty and self-serving this has all been (to put it mildly).
The policy community depends extensively on the outstanding work down by OSINT experts analysing conflicts from Ukraine to Syria. It is very troubling to see
@TwitterSupport
blocking leading accounts for no apparent reason.
What?? So the over 80 Palestinians killed so far this year -- including by undercover Israeli soldiers posing as civilians — might not be a factor for strong popular emotion against Israeli cars bearing Israeli flags in the heart of Nablus?
A mob attacking tourists because they don‘t like their license plate is disgusting and cowardly. I thank the Palestinian Israeli citizen who saved them from the bottom of my heart.
Struggling to keep up with many settlements advancements: East Talpiyot, Gilo, Nof Zion, 'Lower Aqueduct', French Hill, Givat HaShaked etc + expanding settler infrastructure. All designed to constrict Palestinian neighbourhoods in Jerusalem, coupled with evictions and demolitions
EU response to Hamas offensive: shoot the Palestinian Authority sherif that has kept them down in the West Bank and drive Palestinian socio-economic collapse which will benefit armed groups. Crazy.
The foundations for peace, tolerance and co-existence must now be addressed.
Incitement to hatred, violence and glorification of terror have poisoned the minds of too many.
We need action and we need it now.
The normalization agreement between Israel & Morocco is a major step to peace. Today I met my friend Ambassador of Morocco H.E. Adil Embarch. We discussed history, culture and the way forward for the region, in Arabic. I even tasted delicious home-made Moroccan sweets! شكراً 🇮🇱🇲🇦
Taliban showing off more newly acquired hardware -- and U.S. tax dollars at work. In this video, a couple of US supplied UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters left at Kandahar airport. Also 2 Russian helicopters (Mi-17s?).
@intifada
@Twitter
In the interest of FoI, full
@intifada
story can be found here: All info already in public domain so doubly silly to be censuring...
Happy to be launching my new
@ECFRMena
report on the future of European strategy on Israel-Palestine
Europeans must adapt to the emerging one-state reality by re-orientating their vision towards equality and deoccupation as the basis of a just resolution
Over 3 thousand British war dead are buried in Gaza, most from WW1. Some are Jewish. Since 1948, the graves of all British soldiers have been lovingly cared for by generations of the Palestinian Jaradah family who had to flee to Khan Younis due to the war (Cc
@dgcwgc
@janeylaw
)
Israeli soldiers disrespecting British Commonwealth war graves in Gaza. This is hallowed ground where British soldiers who fell during the First World War rest.
@FCDOGovUK
Feels like a repeat of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war when Bush admin blocked international pressure to give Israel additional time to continue hitting targets.
Latest at UNSC on Isr/Pal escalation. European members urging a statement, US keeps blocking.
US should explain why it supports UNSC statements on dozens of other conflicts worldwide but in this one case says it would not be helpful.
German foreign policy seems to be on an autumn break. Even putting aside its actions in Gaza, to say that Israel is committed to international law when it comes to its settlement and annexation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights is quite ein Sprung.
"The accusations being made against Israel are absurd."
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Israel is acting in accordance with international law in defending itself against Hamas.
Me on Channel 4 News just now: Escalation in the Red Sea is entirely a product of the war in Gaza. Restoring security there will not come through military action but through a ceasefire in Gaza. That should be the priority of the British government.
This week’s protest locations across Israel on Saturday night.
I’ll be there along with hundreds of thousands of others. No amount of abuse, insults or attempts at intimidation will keep us away.
UK International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan meeting her counterpart Orna Barbivai in 2022. Behind, an Israeli government map annexing Palestinian territory, including the West Bank.
The escaped Israeli hostages were holding white flags and still shot dead by Israeli troops as they were considered to be in a “sterile zone.” This speaks volumes about the levels of Israeli violence dealt against Palestinian civilians, some also killed carrying white flags.
US Sec of State Pompeo is visiting an illegal Israeli settlement a few miles away from Ramallah and the PA Presidential Compound. If that isn’t the biggest F U to the two-state solution, international community and Palestinian leadership - not sure what is.
Israeli plan for Rafah civilians seems like a copy/paste of violent approach adopted in north Gaza: leave humanitarian aid to UN/NGOs, pressure civilians to evacuate through leaflets and air strikes, consider those remaining as hostile, ‘clean’ the area.
A constructive response would be to say: Apartheid conclusion underscores EU warning of consequences of Israel's undermining of 2SS (). Instead European rhetoric indicates it has no problem living with 'open occupation and unequal rights' -to quote the EU
Great thread on extensive use of 'Apartheid' till now.
Even the EU has repeatedly warned of an entrenching "one-state reality of unequal rights, perpetual occupation and conflict". A confidential EU report also documented the "discriminatory dual legal regime in the West Bank...
Securing Palestinian self-determination remains the best and only guarantee for lasting peace and security for Israelis and Palestinians. The starting point for this should be European recognition of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.
Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister on UAE/Israel deal: I think you can't just let your own brothers down in order to pursue economic interests and perhaps also have more security for yourself
Dutch pension fund ABP has divested from Israeli banks Hapoalim and Leumi.
According to ABP's spokesperson: "We expect companies operating in areas with high risk of human rights violations to have a human rights policy."
Oh my god. The building where al Jazeera’s office is housed has just been taken down by Israeli airstrikes. There was a warning and evacuated. It houses offices and private homes. I can’t believe it.
Any loss of life is a tragedy at a personal level. Cpl Lazar was a soldier enforcing Israel's military occupation of Palestinian territory. What Germany is effectively saying here is that it values the safety of the occupying military force above that of the occupied population.
Deeply saddened by news of a young
@IDF
soldier killed & another seriously injured in a shooting in
#Shuafat
. The shooter must swiftly be brought to justice. This is another reminder that this recent wave of violence must be broken - that requires dialogue and political efforts.
Israel shuts down East Jerusalem event on Palestinian elections and arrests Fatah's secretary general in Jerusalem Since this happened virtually on your doorstep, any response from
@EUpalestinians
?
Ultimately, we need to talk to Hamas to advance peacemaking efforts. UK organisations/individuals who have been involved in various backchannels and mediation efforts with the group – including myself -- could now face up to 14 years in prison.
Wow. Call for ban on settlement products
@guardian
by former Amb to France Eli Barnavi; former Knesset Speaker and Jewish Agency Head Avraham Burg; former foreign ministry D-G Alon Liel; 5 Israel Prize recipients, Amb Ilan Baruch; & 1 EMET Prize Laureate
Smotrich’s call to wipe out Huwara was broadly condemned in Israel and abroad. Yet Palestinians in numerous villages and hamlets continue to face the daily threat of home demolitions and forced evictions by the State of Israel. How is this fundamentally different?
Israel opens tenders for 1257 housing units for the new ‘doomsday’ settlement of Givat Hamatos which would sever East Jerusalem from the southern West Bank.
Spare a thought for the EU officials who have to rush into the office on a Sunday to dig out the ‘Concern-O-Meter’.
This is a good example of the difficulty of trying to build a state under, and beholden to, the occupation while simultaneously trying to challenge the occupying power.
Breaking: Israeli occupation forces confiscate travel permit of Palestinian Foreign Minister Dr Riad Malki over consultations with International Criminal Court (ICC), interrogate his delegation members upon return from EU trip
Today the 31st session of the PLO's Palestinian Central Council (PCC) will take place in Ramallah. It will last 2 days and is expected to take decisions on PLO strategy and formally elect new members of the Executive Committee. Some deep background 👇👇
Abbas and his PA are in full autocrat mode. They are also lost. Their crackdown against political opponents & activists has intensified since Abbas cancelled elections. Once again it is clear there can be no future for Palestinians without new, legitimate & accountable leadership
Palestinian Authority security forces arrest Issa Amro, a political activist from Hebron, on charges of criticizing senior Palestinian officials on social media.
Abbas 2020: I support a two-state solution
EU: ...
Abbas 2021: I support a two-state solution
EU: ...
Lapid 2022: I support a two-state solution [with caveats]
EU: Warm welcome. Let's have an Association Council.
Abbas 2022: I support a two-state solution
EU: ...