So I'll be looking at both the ONS data and PHE data (UKHSA) for this analysis. They're slightly different - PHE data includes 2015-2019 data as baseline to calculate excess from (but only goes up to end of June). ONS data includes 2016-2019 & 2021 as baseline for this yr.

Both datasets show consistent data in terms of excess. Showing ONS data here- for data up to 15th July, we're seeing ~12% excess deaths in England - 1062 deaths/wk

It looks like we've been seeing these continuously for several wks in both PHE & ONS data. The ONS data suggest that COVID accounts for about half of these. Let's delve into these further.

Looking at where these deaths are occurring, it's very clear that we're seeing a substantial excess in peoples homes, and also in hospitals. Looking at hospital excess death data - we're seeing an excess of ~400/wk - all of which is explained by COVID

We're seeing what looks like an even greater excess in homes varying between 500-800/wk. To me, this is rather worrying. Only a small (10% or so) of these have COVID on their death certificate. What is causing these?

I don't know, but delving a bit more into ages and cause of death shows- 1) we're seeing excess deaths now across all age groups including children and young people- which isn't normal. We didn't see this in 2020 at all for example.

2) If you look at excess deaths by cause of death- it looks like the main causes are ischemic heart disease, heart failure, respiratory illness, circulatory disease, diabetes and liver disease.

Several possible reasons we're seeing excess deaths at home: -Impacts of NHS crisis - delay in routine+emergency care -direct impact of COVID-19 - but due to lack of testing this is underestimated -post-acute COVID complications (heart, vascular, resp, liver disease & strokes)

In any case, it is very concerning. It's clear people are dying at home in excess of expectations in the hundreds each week. Overall excess deaths are now in all age groups including young people and children. We need to understand cause urgently. This shouldn't be normalised.

Please also read this vital response from @ActuaryByDay

@dgurdasani1 @danielgoyal Sadly, I suspect many may be the cancer patients we didn't get to in time because of being overloaded with COVID patients......and, by we I mean the NHS, but it is the GOV that are to blame!

@dgurdasani1 Very worrying!!! I think the failure to mitigate the Jan wave and the failure to match capacity to the new patient (acute and chronic) load has undoubtedly caused many deaths.

@dgurdasani1

@dgurdasani1 Why don't you list all the things it's definitely *not*. It's likely to be a much shorter list...

@dgurdasani1 Professor from University of Edinburgh explains:

@dgurdasani1 This is anecdotal but I just did an echo on a 42y/o male who had Covid in Jan and came back in Feb with an EF of <20%. That’s a month later. He has also developed a 5.5 cm aortic root aneurysm. His EF has recovered and he’s going for TT surgery but could have easily died at home.

@dgurdasani1 @danielgoyal Neglect and dereliction of care by the government?

@bcdelaney1 that's certainly possible, I think.

@dgurdasani1 1,000 seems to match the deaths within 28 days stat