COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group @COVID19actuary Twitter profile

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

4 months

In memory of our colleague @AdeleGroyer

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are rising sharply across England, up 33% week-on-week. Admissions rose by between 23% and 50% in all English regions. Bed occupancy is up by 12%. Hospital deaths with COVID are no longer falling. Our estimate suggests deaths rose by 8% this week.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

No doubt now about the trajectory of hospital admissions with COVID. Up 16% in the last week. Daily numbers remain low but as always it is important to focus on the direction of travel. Regional detail below. 1/2

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID have risen sharply! 7-day average for England up 48%. Implied R estimate above 1.2. The highest we’ve seen in 2022. Regionally, the biggest increases are in SE (up 64%) and Mids (up 58%) but big increases everywhere. Bed occupancy is up by 37%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

9 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 30% in-week. Our R-value risen to 1.16. Admissions rose in all English regions. The largest increase was 86% in the East followed by London (+41%). Acute bed occupancy increased by 15%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

ONS have today updated their analysis of mortality rates in England based on vaccination status. Key result is that whether we consider all-cause deaths or deaths with COVID, the age-standardised mortality rate is higher for unvaccinated people. Chart 1 - All causes of death.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

4 years

We have analysed the difference between ONS and PHE reported deaths from COVID-19 as part of our latest bulletin, released today. We reiterate that excess deaths is the most reliable way to measure the pandemic’s impact. Over 60,000 excess deaths have occurred to date in the UK

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England. Admissions are rising sharply again with a big jump today to 283. This takes the daily average to 227 - that’s three time as many as in mid May and currently accelerating. 1/2

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions and occupancy in England shows a significant increase in admissions nationally, up 54% week-on-week. 1,751 admissions were reported today. Most of the charts that follow have been rescaled significantly in light of the latest data. 1/5

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Deaths with COVID in English hospitals are now updated weekly on Thursdays. Todays update suggests that deaths are rising sharply. Adjusting recent days based on historical reporting delays suggests a 37% increase week-on-week.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

10 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased sharply, up 41% in-week. Our R estimate increased to 1.20. Admissions slightly fell in London (-4%), but rose in all other English regions. The largest increase was 82% in the South East. Acute bed occupancy increased by 43%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

8 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 25% in-week. Our R-value has risen to 1.14. Admissions slightly fell in London (-8%) but rose elsewhere. Biggest increases in the South East (+51%) and North West (+37%). Acute bed occupancy is up by 22%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have risen by 12% in-week. Our R estimate has risen to 1.06. Admissions rose in every English region. The largest increase was 23% in the North West. Bed occupancy has risen by 10%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

A further update on hospitals in England with one more day of data. Over 2,000 admissions today - still ahead of @cmmid_lshtm modelling. Almost a vertical rise in NE&Yorks, up 91%. Occupancy up 68% and over 11,000 but still little increase in mechanical ventilation beds.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Over 1,000 hospital admissions with COVID today. Still rising sharply across England, up 37% week-on-week. Up by between 16% and 56% in the English regions. Implied R estimate has risen slightly to 1.18. Bed occupancy with COVID is up by 28% to 6,177.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

NHS data on deaths with COVID in English hospitals is now updated weekly on Thursdays. Todays update confirms that deaths are rising sharply. Adjusting recent days based on historical reporting delays suggests a 45% increase week-on-week.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

A significant increase in hospital admissions with COVID! 7-day average for England is up 17% with a big jump on Monday. Implied R estimate clearly above 1.0. Regionally, the biggest increases are in SW (up 39%), East (up 33%) and NE&Yorks (up 30%). Bed occupancy is up by 14%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are still rising sharply across England. The 7-day average is up 39% week-on-week, now exceeding 1,000. English regions up by between 25% and 45%. Implied R estimate is 1.2 - might R have now peaked? Bed occupancy with COVID is up by 37% to 7,822.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID continue to increase rapidly across England. Up by 23% in the last week. See below for a breakdown by region, age and primary diagnosis. Also bed occupancy and hospital deaths. 1/6

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

The @WHO recently reported 14.9 million excess deaths from the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. We have reviewed the calculations and while the global total is broadly consistent with other estimates, we have concerns over the figures for some countries.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Final update on hospitals in England for 2021. 2,370 admissions today - ahead of @cmmid_lshtm modelling. NE&Yorks has more than doubled in a week, up 117%. Occupancy up 75% at 12,395 but still little increase in mechanical ventilation beds. We wish you good health in 2022.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID continue to increase rapidly across England. Up by 27% in the last week. See below for a breakdown by region, age and primary diagnosis. Also bed occupancy and hospital deaths. 1/5

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID-19 are up 7% week-on-week with significant increases in the last few days. The change in trajectory is apparent in all English regions. The fastest increase is in the South West (up 17%).

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

In the first six months of 2022, deaths in Australia were 13% higher than predicted. There were 11,200 excess deaths. There were 5,600 COVID deaths, representing just over half the excess.

Excess Mortality in Australia - COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Australia is seeing significant excess mortality in 2022, in contrast to earlier in the pandemic. Around half the excess is from COVID deaths

covidactuaries.org

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are still rising sharply across England. The 7-day average is up 32% week-on-week. English regions up by between 20% (London) and 65% (South West). Implied R estimate down slightly to 1.16. Bed occupancy with COVID is back above 10,000 - up 37%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions in England. Admissions are still accelerating, with 416 reported today. The 7-day average is 335 - up 57% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 11 days. 1/6

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are rising sharply across England, up 30% week-on-week. Admissions rose by between 19% and 48% in all English regions. Implied R estimate has been fairly stable for a few days at around 1.16. Bed occupancy with COVID is up by 25% to over 5,700.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

In amongst all the distinguished and worthy recipients of an award in the New Year's Honours List, we are delighted that our co-founder and co-chair, Stuart McDonald (aka @ActuaryByDay ) has been awarded an MBE. 1/

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

11 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 23% in-week. Our R estimate increased to 1.12. Admissions fell in the North West (-16%), but rose in all other English regions, with the largest increase being 44% in the East. Acute bed occupancy increased by 5%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

The last update of hospital data for the week shows admissions growing at 41% per week, which if maintained would suggest a doubling time of approximately 14 days. With the daily average now 962, a further doubling would take us close to the BA.2 peak shown. 1/

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are still rising sharply. 7-day average for England is up 33%. Implied R estimate is a little under 1.2. Regionally growth is consistently high, with increases between 22% (South West) and 47% (the East). Bed occupancy is up by 37%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Our new chart more clearly explains the paradox that a majority of older admissions are fully vaccinated. At age 50 plus, 703 fully vaccinated hospital admissions are from a population of 19.1 million. Meanwhile, 458 unvaccinated are from a population of just 1.0 million.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

9 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 10% in-week. Our R-value has risen to 1.04. Admissions were falling in the SE, flat in London and the East, but rose elsewhere. Biggest increases NW (+33%) and NE&Yorks (+29%). Acute bed occupancy is up by 1%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions in England. Admissions are rising sharply. The 7-day average is up to 310 - up by 52% in the last week. The implied doubling time is 12 days. 1/4

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 13 January. There were 31% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as 2019. 1/3

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

10 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 29% in-week. Our R estimate has slightly decreased to 1.14. Admissions in the South West dropped by 9%, but rose in all other English regions. London saw the largest increase at 45%. Acute bed occupancy went up by 27%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

As @john_actuary has noted, the current rate of increase in hospital admissions is faster than we saw during the BA.2 Omicron wave in March. This chart shows what that means as an R estimate, currently approaching 1.2.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England. Admissions are rising sharply. The 7-day average is up to 287 - up by 47% in the last week. 1/n

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Hospital admissions with COVID increased more sharply this week. 7-day average for England up 36%. All regions saw large increases. Sth East was largest (+49%) and London the smallest (+13%). Our R estimate reflects the faster growth, at 1.18. Bed occupancy has risen by 29%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

10 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased again this week, up 19% in-week. Our R estimate is stable at around 1.12. Admissions rose in all English regions. The largest increase was 48% in the North West. Acute bed occupancy increased by 21%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England. Admissions are rising sharply again after a few days of slower increases. The recent growth rate implies a doubling time of around one month. As ever the regional analysis (below) helps explain the national picture. 1/4

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

In our new blog, @AdeleGroyer compares the vaccination status of hospital admissions in England to the general population. For those aged 50plus, the unvaccinated 5% make up 34% of hospital admissions. 79% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 43% of admissions.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have risen by 18% in-week. Our R estimate is approaching 1.1. Admissions were flat in the North West but rose everywhere else. London saw the biggest increase at 31%. Bed occupancy has risen by 8%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

9 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 10% in-week. Our R-value risen to 1.05. Admissions slightly fell in the East (-3%) but rose in all other English regions. The largest increase was 23% in the Midlands. Acute bed occupancy increased by 12%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

A brief update on COVID-19 hospital admissions in England. Admissions have clearly peaked with falls in the 7-day average over the last few days. We will provide a fuller update on Wednesday.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 20 January. There were 26% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as 2019. 1/3

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions and occupancy in England. The 7-day average for admissions is up by 26% in the last week. The growth rate is falling week on week, with a little curvature now apparent in the orange line showing the moving average. 1/4

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

There’s been a resurgence of social media claims that a majority of COVID victims died as a result of comorbidities, rather than the disease itself. In this article, written early in the pandemic, our co-chairs addressed similar claims, showing most victims had years to live.

IFoA

@actuarynews

4 years

Would the majority of Covid-19 victims have likely died this year even without the pandemic? Matthew Edwards and Stuart McDonald investigate:

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

The choice of measure for expected deaths makes a huge difference. Under the WHO approach, excess mortality in Germany (11%) was close to twice that in Sweden (6%). But under the linear trend, excess mortality in Sweden (9%) is three times that in Germany (3%).

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have risen by 11% in-week. Our R estimate is fairly stable at 1.06 Admissions rose sharply in Midlands, South East and North West but were quite flat elsewhere. That pattern is the reverse of last week. Bed occupancy has risen by 13%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Much of the increase seems to be people acquiring COVID while in hospital. Likely hospital acquired cases have doubled in a week. This may be a consequence of routine testing on admission being reduced as this allows COVID to spread more freely in hospitals.

Adele Groyer

@AdeleGroyer

2 years

Likely hospital acquired cases have almost doubled in the past week in England!! There were 2,197 such cases in the 7 days to 26 Sept. In the previous week there were 1,133 such cases. The last time there were over 2,000 likely hospital acquired cases / week was in July. 1/3

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

10 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 26% in-week. R estimate has slightly decreased to 1.13. Admissions in the South West dropped by 9%, but rose in all other English regions. Biggest increases in East +44% and London +41%. Acute bed occupancy went up by 23%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

This chart compares actual hospital admissions with modelled scenarios produced by SPI-M-O teams, including the latest update from @cmmid_lshtm to incorporate Omicron. Admissions seem to be slightly ahead of the modelled peak but tracking it closely. 3/5

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England. 752 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 34% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 16 days. There’s been a continued fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/6

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have peaked and are now clearly falling. 7-day average is down 3% week-on-week. Implied R estimate has fallen below 1.0. Regionally, only NE & Yorkshire saw a small increase. Bed occupancy with COVID is up slightly (by 3%) week-on-week.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

An update on COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland. Good news! The 7-day average for admissions has peaked and is now 12% lower than one week ago.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths in England has been released. Starting with the regional picture this week as there has been a rapid acceleration in London with admissions up by 38% week-on-week. Increases are much more gradual elsewhere. 1/5

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

The difference in the COVID mortality rate is much narrower than earlier in the pandemic. This is likely to be a result of unvaccinated people acquiring some immunity from prior infections. Chart 2 - deaths involving COVID.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Are A&E pressures really leading to hundreds of additional deaths each week? @ActuaryByDay and colleagues @LCP_Actuaries crunch the numbers and conclude that a significant number of patients could be dying because of long delays accessing emergency care.

Are NHS waiting times contributing to excess deaths? - COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Waiting times for admission to A&E are have progressively worsened since Summer 2021. Are people dying because of delays obtaining care?

covidactuaries.org

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

CMI calculates 177,100 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 25,700 in the first 24 weeks of 2023. Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 4.1% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. That is similar to this point in 2021. 3/4

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have risen by 12% in-week. Our R estimate is fairly stable at 1.06 Admissions were fairly flat in the South West but everywhere else rose by between 9% (NW) and 25% (London). Bed occupancy has risen by 11%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

COVID-19 hospital admissions in London are still increasing rapidly with 7-day average up 38% week-on-week. North West is up 14% while other English regions saw a fall in admissions. For England overall, admissions are up 4%, but London gives an indication of what to expect.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

There’s been a dramatic fall in the age of typical COVID admissions to hospital this year, as older groups comprise an ever smaller proportion of new admissions. In our new blog Matthew Edwards and @ActuaryByDay consider how this changing age profile will impact mortality rates.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Admissions with COVID are still rising rapidly across England, up 25% week-on-week. The growth rate is fairly consistent between regions, all up by between 19% and 31%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

4 years

While all eyes have been on vaccine development and other hoped-for leaps forward, little has been said of the incremental progress in #COVID19 treatment to date. Death rates from COVID-19 in English hospitals have halved from April to June.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have fallen by 34% in-week. Our R estimate has dropped to 0.76. Admissions fell in all English regions, with the largest decrease being 55% in the South East. Acute bed occupancy has decreased by 26%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England. Admissions are rising sharply again with another jump today to 331. This takes the daily average to 244 - up by 30% in the last week. 1/n

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

4 years

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its analysis of today’s ONS release. Key points: - death rates 59% higher than the same week last year - excess deaths 76% higher than COVID-19 deaths - They estimate there have been 25,000 excess deaths in the UK!

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@COVID19actuary

2 years

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 21 October. There were 13% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as 2019. That’s another significant excess. 1/3

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are now falling rapidly across England. 7-day average is down 19% week-on-week. Implied R estimate is below 0.9. Regionally, falls of between 14% (East and NW) and 25% (London). Bed occupancy with COVID is also falling, down 15% week-on-week.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions in England. 636 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 42% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 14 days. There’s been a slight fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/5

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID have fallen sharply in the last week. The 7-day average for England is down 27%. R estimate (0.8) is the lowest it’s been all year. All regions have seen falls, ranging from -19% in London to -36% in SE. Bed occupancy also fell. It’s down by 20%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have peaked and are clearly falling. 7-day average is down 13% week-on-week. Implied R estimate is around 0.9. Regionally, falls of between 3% (NW) and 16% (Lon and SE). Bed occupancy with COVID is also falling, down 11% week-on-week.

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@COVID19actuary

3 years

Well, this is nice.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

4 years

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its analysis of today’s ONS release. Key points: - death rates are 2.2 times the same week last year - total excess deaths are 1.4 times COVID-19 deaths - The CMI estimates there have been 55,000 excess deaths in the UK

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Many congratulations to our co-chair, Stuart McDonald ( @ActuarybyDay ) who received his MBE, awarded in the New Year's Honours List, from the King today. Stuart's award was for volunteer services to public health over the pandemic, both with our group and more directly with DHSC.

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@COVID19actuary

11 months

Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased by 10% in-week. Our R estimate decreased to 1.05. Admissions fell in the East (-23%), but rose in all other English regions, with the largest increase being 40% in the North West. Acute bed occupancy decreased by 4%.

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@COVID19actuary

3 years

After a couple of days with no data updates the issue at @NHSEngland seem to be resolved and new on data on COVID-19 hospital admissions and bed occupancy was released last night. Nationally, there has been a significant fall in admissions in the past week, down 15%. 1/5

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

The increase is not driven by “incidental admissions”. The number of beds occupied by patients where COVID is the Primary Diagnosis (PD) is up by 46%. So the proportion of patients with COVID where it is the PD has risen to 39%. It is over 50% in the SE and SW.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have risen by 6% in-week. Our R estimate has risen to 1.04. Admissions rose in every English region. The largest increase was 20% in the North West. Bed occupancy has risen by 2%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

Note the caveat that this data should not be used to measure vaccine effectiveness as there are other differences between the groups. Indeed we can see that non-COVID death rates are also higher for unvaccinated. ONS bulletin and link to data set is here:

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Long COVID is an increasing source of public anxiety, particularly regarding neurological issues. In the UK, an estimated 1.8 million people in private households self-reported Long COVID symptoms in May 2022.

Long COVID - COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Summary There is intrinsic uncertainty in associating a deterioration of health with an illness suffered months earlier. Where the prevalence of an illness is on a global scale, as with COVID-19,...

covidactuaries.org

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@COVID19actuary

3 years

At younger ages the vaccination relationship is similar. For those aged below 50, only 46% are unvaccinated but they make up 87% of hospital admissions. 21% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 4% of admissions.

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@COVID19actuary

2 years

All English regions has seen an increase in admissions with COVID week-on-week. The fastest increase was in the South West, up by 31%. The slowest increase is NE and Yorkshire, up by 5%. 2/2

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@COVID19actuary

1 year

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its first weekly Mortality Monitor for 2023, covering deaths to 6 Jan. There were 30% more deaths registered than if death rates were the same as in 2019. This week’s results are affected by Bank Holiday timing. 1/3

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

1 year

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 16 June. Death rates this week were 8% higher than the equivalent week in 2019. This implies 800 excess deaths. 1/4

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions in England. 610 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 46% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 13 days. Rate of increase has seems to have fallen slightly since last week but growth is still exponential and fast. 1/6

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Our opening tweet described daily admissions as “low”. This was intended as a comparison to previous peaks and by implication to hospital capacity. It was not our intent to imply that 1,000 hospital admissions with COVID is a normal or acceptable level.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are still rising sharply across England. The 7-day average is up 37% week-on-week, now approaching 1,200. English regions up by between 27% and 45%. Implied R estimate down slightly - back below 1.2. Bed occupancy with COVID is up by 35% to 8,120.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

As @AdeleGroyer has noted, it looks like much of the increase may be due to people acquiring COVID while in hospital. This may be a consequence of routine testing on admission being reduced as this allows COVID to spread more freely in hospitals.

Adele Groyer

@AdeleGroyer

2 years

Likely hospital acquired Covid cases have increased by 46% in the past week. In the week to 19 September, there were 1,133 such cases in England. The number of first time Covid admissions testing positive within 7 days increased but by just 8%. 1/3

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

4 years

With 5,000 deaths now removed from the official COVID-19 death toll from @PHE_uk a reminder of our analysis showing the relative size of the historic undercount and the recent overcount in those numbers. This change makes the official total significantly less accurate.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are rising sharply across England, up 31% week-on-week. Admissions rose by between 20% and 42% in all English regions. Implied R estimate has been fairly stable for a few days at around 1.17, having previously been rising. Bed occupancy up by 19%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Update on COVID hospital admissions in England. Admissions are increasing rapidly, with 458 reported today. The 7-day average is 360 - up 58% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 11 days. No change to the rate in increase since yesterday. 1/6

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

4 years

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its analysis of today’s ONS release. Key points: - death rates are 1.6 times the same week last year - they estimate that there have been around 60,000 excess deaths in the UK this year

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

A brief update on COVID hospital admissions in England. Three more days of data confirms the abrupt change in trend that we highlighted on Friday. Average admissions are down 9% week-on-week but have now been basically flat for a few days.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

3 years

Almost all regions are now showing strong increases over the past week, only the East of England was flat. 2/2

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are still rising across England, but showing signs of slowing down. 7-day average is up 28% week-on-week. All regions have had fairly consistent week-on-week growth. Implied R estimate has fallen to 1.13. Bed occupancy with COVID is above 13,000.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Excess deaths have been front page news recently with speculation rife as to underlying causes. Age-standardised analysis from the CMI shows over 1,000 excess deaths a week over the last 10 weeks. @ActuaryByDay discusses the issue in our new blog. 1/3

A summer of excess deaths - COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group %

Why have their been excess deaths this summer? We examine the data and discusses possible underlying causes, including delays to urgent care.

covidactuaries.org

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

4 years

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its Mortality Monitor. Key points: - death rates very similar to last year over the 3 week period - CMI calculates 60,400 excess UK deaths to 25 September - excess deaths peaked in mid June and has subsequently fallen

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are rising again across England, up 17% week-on-week. Admissions rose in all regions. The fastest increase was in the South East, up 30%. Bed occupancy is up by 11%. Hospital deaths with COVID are still falling for now, down 4%.

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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

@COVID19actuary

2 years

Hospital admissions with COVID are rising again. The 7-day average for England is up 11%. All regions saw an increase except Midlands (down 4%). The South West saw a 40% increase in admissions. Our R estimate is at 1.06 and may increase further. Bed occupancy has risen by 8%.

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