Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo Twitter profile

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

My article in substack form with graphs for those who have a hard time reading it on twitter:

Russia's missing men

What tracking Russian MIAs tells us about their manpower

stanimirdobrev.substack.com

Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

After the publishing for my article on the state of Russian manpower fell through I am posting it here, part 1:

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

1/I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behavior towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

10/This didn't seem that crazy in the Kremlin because the prevailing thought in the higher echelons and Putin's inner circle and the FSB was one highly dismissive of Ukraine highly hyped up by Russian army propaganda reporting. They missed that they were buying their own bullshit

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

3/Secondly it seems the decision making structrues have low opinion in general of Ukraine and their fighting abilities and sort of an ideal that there's a willing subservience in Ukranians if they get to be part of Russia. Pure racism informing their decision making process.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

6/And there's a lot of hidden corruption and misreporting that gets baked in into calculations but the higher you go up the chain as in a corporation, the more dimissive management is that it will be an issue. AKA Putin doesn't even remotely grasp how bad it is.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

28/ So the spineless bunch decided to throw away 18-19 year old conscripts and veterans and pray they get lucky. Also that Putin hasn't noticed how nuts this is shows that he's either delusional or is completely inept when it comes to military affairs.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

2/Here's where I will start from. The Russian armed forces have never attempted anything like this. This isn't about what kind of war they're fighting it's about what they're capable of mustering.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

11/The release of the information paralyzed them in terms of decision making. But the inherent bias remained and UA delayed mobilising so it didn't dissuade them. For 7 days they ate away supplies rather than actively trying to build them further, they were waiting a go order.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

1) I am going to push back on the idea that what we see is that the Russian Armed Forces are merely having severe supply and readiness issues and that we should consider it to be overall modern.

Michael Kofman

@KofmanMichael

2 years

Taking a cursory look at Russian losses two weeks into the war, it reads less as a general failure to modernize, and more as a failure to maintain and properly support the equipment. Abandonment rate exceedingly high.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

8/We saw constant trains and movement over time moving Ru equipment and lots of aircraft being moved over to mustering points and at the end people. By then the supply was at its limit just keeping them warm and fed. They found out the hard way this was their logistical limit.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

A grouping of vehicles that's over 40 kms long and immobile is called a traffic jam, not an army.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

4/Thirdly battalion tactical groups are terrible units to support operations. They have overload the commander lack support and might not properly integrate with air or do adeqaute scouting as signals and recon are missing along with liasons with them.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

27/Can it work? I don't know. Is it a good plan. Hell no. Could they execute anything else, without the entire structure confessing the army has corruption,which yes the boss expected, but it's such a rot it might cost him his throne, yeah not when he's in this mood.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

9/What people sa wasn't that troops packed spare tanks for long drives. They were carying their fuel reserves on them. The few organic refueling trucks were not enough to make up an actual reserve or depot. They had one full compliment, some spares in one truck , thats it.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

PS/ A lot of the commentary prior missed the readiness of the Russian forces and the poor state of affairs. Overreliance on official statements and major military pages missed tons of low level testimonials and regional investigative pieces on how big the rot was.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

14/Now it's either confess the lies about readiness or be creative. Because the corruption had created such a rot, brigade commandes chose "creative" (criminal), conscripts were added to the build up. Ghosts soldiers on the roster were hidden. That meant BTGs were far greener.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

5/Fourthly without standing down even if parts of the UA Nat Guard, Police, Border Guard, Territorials and Army are defeated, UA regional commands can be autonomous for days and are vast structures, short of ordering their demobilization their removal is way too costly for RuMoD.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

7/Based on those 5 let me try to explain the situation now. Russian units aren't stopping fire or limiting use of their kalibrs and stand off strikes. This is all they could muster south. Kalibrs are limited by launch tubes, a bit over a hundred is what they had ready.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

13/Were the Ru troops quality ones they'd do better with just surprise on their side. But they were mostly poorly trained as full units were never called up before. Usually a brigade would send only a company and could hand pick.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

12/The limited supply meant it had to be a mad dash. BTGs were split into smaller sub units traveling on multiple roads to avoid congestion. When they met something they'd wait to coalesce or get into a fight. If the UA was suprised it would work.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

15/When these hit a city or made contact they'd deploy in unideal formations of platoon to company size. Not their fault all that much, this is what they knew. Then if a UA unit knew in advance where they were and was careful, it would anihilate the BTG splinter formation.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

PPPS/ We saw lots of evidence for that and even then a part of the community of analysts dismissed it assuming once it's about having a war footing RU structures will take it serious. But that's not how bad habits work.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

25) In the words of Blackadder : It started badly, it tailed off a little in the middle and the less said about the end the better — but apart from that it was excellent.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

16/Because the timetable had to be kept, supplies were already short with the delay Ru troops would go a step further. They'd keep one sub unit to block and redirect subsequent units, the rest would continue on parallel roads. Again timetable meant usually more major roads.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

25/So the air assault fails, part of the pincer moves fail, you can't budge most of the UA troops what do you do? You go for broke, hope you win the race between entrechment in Kyiv and you just throwing all you have and hope if you decapitate UA, regional commands lose faith.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

17/After a couple of road blocks, BTG'd be diluted, lost a bunch of units and fighting to standstill. You'd expect that there would be air or artiller support. But BTGs aren't suited for that, when they move in chunks in parallel the artillery spotters could be in another group.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

21/This works on day 1 when you know where your guys start & can track where they are easily and you know beyond that point it's all enemy. Once you land and refuel, it's less easy especially because as we mentioned, a BTG splitinter lacks a signals unit, just has a few officers.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

18/As we said also there was a problem stocking supplies but still CAS should probably not be as limited? Yes but Russian SSO more used to directing it had other tasks and Russia doesn't have a platform like the US surveilance planes and drones that can operate in contested air.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

19/And the air was contested because of the limited early strikes due to the small build up + limited recon of where UA AF & AD were prior to this. Satelites take pics at known times, moving equipment often can dissuede strikes as it's uncertain anything will be in place.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

The Russian MoD said it had 640 000 professional soldiers. This tells us two things, one Medvedev's numbers are a work of fiction and the Ru irrecoverable losses are in the hundreds of thousands. Let me break it down.

Службу по контракту в российской армии проходят более 640 тыс. человек

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

PPS/ Aggregation of Zvezda and VK mil informing pages and MAKS show sales pitches should be tempered by what we can find on the ground and regional and smaller outlets, forums and blogs were servicemembers were pissed were abundant to the point they shouldn't have been dismissed.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

26/Otherwise becuase what remains of your force is split in small groups moving on main roads UA can mobilize move via back roads and just recapture most of the towns as you have few troops for actual 24/7 duties and to even spot them moving back into the town.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

20/What then was struck were major stationary objects, depots in main areas, radars, major command and control but again limited by number of reloads. So then Ru MoD started rolling the columns with heavy support of helicopters and planes ahead.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

24/You still have to try to take the airport fast and get guys in because if the operation takes too long and you haven't kept them(the UA) on the back foot your green troops are still moving piecemeal on roads, don't have much with them, any small village could be their end.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

22/Then comes the air asault. Becuase you have to be quick you also have to do risky stuff. The problem of course is that because your helicopters are parked in fields, ready for one load with some trucks and one set of ammo, you can do it once a day with each group.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

23/That's why you wait till the end of the assualt attempt to see if it works. If you have to refuel and prep for a second go, your trucks have to go to a depot and reload and then come back. And only then try again.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

1 year

The project to develop the arctic variants of Tor and Pantsir was priced at 100 billion roubles ...

Военные РФ получат зенитные ракетные комплексы "Тор" на 100 млрд рублей

Минобороны РФ и завод "Купол" в Ижевске подписали два долгосрочных госконтракта на поставку зенитных ракетных комплексов (ЗРК) "Тор-М2" и "Тор-М2ДТ".

www.interfax.ru

Angry Cossack

@auto_glam

1 year

The second extremely rare Tor-M2DT (arctic TOR) destroyed.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

And huge thanks to @ain92ru who knows a lot more than me about this but due to the situation in Russia has posted a lot less.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

PPPPS/ And in the minds of the Kremlin they have been continuously on a war footing. So if during that time they left arms companies bankrupt sometimes even more than once, the habit was not going to break most likely. To quote Nemtsov here: <<Он ёбнутый... чтоб вы поняли?>>

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

These tanks might be from the 467th guard training school ( в/ч 30616 ). If the Russian armed forces are pulling tanks and troops from the training schools they're beyond spent.

IgorGirkin

@GirkinGirkin

2 years

Ковров, 4 марта

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

Also to remind people when stuck along the road at near 0 degrees Celsius in a column for days you continue to have heavy fuel consumption. Engines will be running at regular intervals. Same applies for a forrest near the border.

Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

A grouping of vehicles that's over 40 kms long and immobile is called a traffic jam, not an army.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

New light commercial vehicle sales in Russia are down 78,5% in April. This is for the folks who look at the mostly artificial exchange rate thinking the Russian economy's fine.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 months

Russian gasoline production the week of 1st-7th of April declined again to 754 400 tons and diesel production dropped further than before to 1 585 100 tons. In 2023 during the week of 3rd-9th of April gasoline production was 833 200 tons and diesel production was 1 769 000 tons.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

3 months

I don't think people appreciate how expensive Russian logistics are becoming. 24% interest on a truck lease has made it impossible to replace a mid sized company's fleet. Chinese & Ru trucks are expensive less fuel efficient and this is the entire margin.

Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

3 months

Russian companies are canceling truck leases due to costs of 24% interest and outsourcing transportation. Only companies with very large fleets can continue operating. Also Chinese trucks are as expensive as EU ones but of lower quality.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

I will do a breakdown of the recent collapse in Russia's winter coping measures and why it happened in 2024 for those who don't follow Russian news. There's a combination of reasons which led to this event.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

3 months

A thread on how Russian aircraft manufacturers are doing when it comes to staffing. It's far from the image being cultivated that everything is running smoothly. Many of these entities shed thousands of workers prior to 2022. Salaries are quite low with lots of offers < 50 000.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

2)Here's the first problem, SEAD. It's failing to suppress UA air defences, but that's more a feature of procurement planning rather than a bug. The VKS lacks a significant number of modern ELINT platforms.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

1) This is a thread on the state of Russian infantry squads and platoons in the ground forces and naval infantry and VDV and how these rank comparatively. The VDV have been addressed and considered light infantry but the data suggests they are on the heavier side.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

4)Now to explain the practical implications. Without those platforms in the air the Ru VKS rarely has an idea when a UA radar is being turned on unless they are almost on top of it in practical terms ( closer than 50 kms ). They just get notified when they get acquired.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 months

Ru trade with Turkey is coming to a halt. Turkish firms can't receive payments and are closing their export bank accounts. The Turkish Ministry of Trade called the situation force majeure as banks are stopping transactions en masse due to fear of sanctions

Турецкие банки отклоняют платежи

С какими сложностями сталкивается российский бизнес

www.kommersant.ru

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

My two cents on the "Moskva". While it was the flagship of the VMF's Black Sea fleet and it won awards it was in a pitiful state. Broader modernisation was cancelled in 2015 and what was done was mostly servicing and extension of power plant's life.

Модернизация ракетного крейсера «Москва» отложена

Ракетный крейсер «Москва», флагман Черноморского флота, в этом году не встанет на ремонт с модернизацией, как ожидалось ранее, сообщил ТАСС источник в оборонно-промышленном комплексе. «Планы по...

vpk.name

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

24)The manpower isn't there to hold even 4 larger towns. As UA reserves are brought forth South and East I don't think Ru keeping thousands in the towns and a bunch advance columns trying to move out is tenable. Mass warcriming doesn't degrade mil power in 2 weeks.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

5)The second issue is the collapse of communications and the lack of interoperable real time data links with the same standards. In practice the VDV, Army and VKS sort of have different systems. These get fed and combined at the army HQ usually during drills.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

6)Firing anti radar missiles in a battle space you can't deconflict and is filled with your own AD is a bad idea, even if you think there's a caricature level casual carelessness among Ru officers (I don't think it's the case). You just lose missiles without achieving their aim.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

11 days

Ru's Ministry of Energy has made fuel production statistics a state secret and they are no longer included in the weekly fuel data from Rosstat. I can no longer provide updates on that. Assume the damage on the fuel infrastructure has a significant effect

Минэнерго закрыло статистику по выпуску топлива

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

7)The next issue is what modern means for ground forces and air forces. It is supposed to mean All Weather forces. But at the very least night operations, but the issue is the bulk of the Russian ground equipment has 70s IR illuminators for its commanders.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

More secondary evidence to support the argument that the logistics are really not there and this is how the Russian armed forces will fight against any foe. Expired Russian MoD rations from the era they grew in renown over the world (2013-2015):

ДвіЩ

Русняву армію годують пайками у яких термін придатності закінчився у 2015 році🤷‍♂

t.me

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

19)Finally, to reiterate when you're not picking just a company or three from a brigade to send, you get to see how unprepared the service is. That shouldn't be news at this point, tanks without motor oil, dead batteries, drivers who can't handle ditches with tracked vehicles...

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

8)We have also seen Russian troops use flares during their attack of the nuclear powerplant in Energodar and lacking more sophisticated night fighting equipment. Even recent tank upgrades omitted that, like the T-80BVM.

64-я мотострелковая бригада получила модернизированные танки Т-80БВМ

Как сообщила 7 апреля 2021 года пресс-служба Восточного военного округа, впервые современные танки Т-80БВМ поступили на вооружение мотострелкового соединения Восточного военного округа. Накануне,...

bmpd.livejournal.com

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

18)As a whole while the Russian armed forces don't have the ability to act as a modern force at this scope. If we're talking about a subset across most branches of a combined total of 40-50 k . Maybe. But a ground component of 200k with backing, as we have seen is a problem.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

10)Even though the Ru MoD considers most of its tanks as modern, in practice by the above standard only a small subset are. To tie it to experience from recent combat showcases that even the thermals on the Strykers can be used to avoid and counter ambushes.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

13)The inversion of that paradigm suggest that procurement is driven by Almaz-Antey and Rostech's funding needs and desires, rather than actual modern AF doctrine. The DoD Procurement slideshows may cause migraines, they don't cause inferiority by design to this degree.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

3)Let's do a head count, 2 Tu-214Rs and 3 modernised Il-20 derivatives have been received in the last 20+ years. The A-100 projects is still being delayed and the reports from KAZ suggest further Tu-214 orders will not be forthcoming.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

9)When defining a modern tank we usually consider modern ammo (discrepancy in crew experience could negate it via outmanoeuvring) modern sights for the gunner, thermal equipped 360 periscope for the commander (hunter killer capability) and a battlefield information system.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

3 months

The cheering of tankies of the FAB-3000 is weird. There's no guidance kit for it. It's not aerodynamic enough to glide as far as other variants & it's doubtful that the pylons of Su-34s can even take a FAB-3000 + a guidence kit even now UMPK FABs drop often due to weight issues.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

3 months

Russian gasoline production last week declined to a new low of 815 300 tons and diesel production to 1638 800 tons. I have data for March 2023 20-26 Mar, gasoline production was 880 000 and diesel production was 1769 100.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

1 year

Or much more likely heading for the announced drill in Romania from the 25th of May to the 11th of June named by the Bulgarian Ministry of Defence as "Wet Gap Crossing" involving a pontoon bridge company from the 55th engineering regiment.

NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦

@NOELreports

1 year

A column of pontoon crossings reportedly in Bulgaria, possibly heading to Ukraine.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

14)And the other remaining problem is the issue with the continuous lack of JDAM equivalents. JDAM kits are cost effective, Russia just doesn't have a comparable program that has delivered kits at anywhere the same rate even if we account for a smaller fleet.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

Over the last several years a large part of the perishable goods contracts for the Russian armed forces have been given to firms connected to Prigozhin and it's a lucrative business for him.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

20)My assessment of the current fighting is also different. I presume that the Ruforces in the South met more success due it being easier to support them Ru VKS(as I mentioned in a previous thread + UA AD focus on Kyiv). That pushed battered UA forces back behind the rivers.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

22)The constant fear of a landing in Odessa seems to have forced a lot more UA troops to be kept there than necessary. Again consistent with a less aggressive (in terms eagerness to go on the offensive of military action) civil government which got spooked at the start.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

11)The next bit is the VKS&AD procurement priorities, they are dominated by people with influence over the Kremlin, we see SHORAD development funding & some procurement funding and S-400 purchases. The issue is that this funding is greater or comparable to aircraft procurement.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

12)This is an anomaly when it comes to modern air forces. As priority should go to various types of surveillance platforms, manned but also possible high endurance unmanned platforms , then strike and multiroles, then an operational budget for high training rates and then AD.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

23)But overall we're seeing some mauled UA units still mounting an effective defence and a more conservative posture by UA and a southern Ru advance that captured a few bigger towns and stores, and thus doesn't have as a dire of a supply a situation, but it's facing problem 2.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

21)The panic in Kyiv from days 1&2 has also led to more newly formed units being sent around the capitol. But because the Russian forces are so limited for their tasks in the South we just see small prongues which the remaining UA units are being able to check.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

15)What I think @KofmanMichael might have been influenced by if I may paraphrase a document the Chieftain quoted in one of his talks, "The tendency to view the battlefield as a test agency". The use of Su-57, Mig-31 with Kinzhal, UGVs in Syria and so on.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

3 months

A story that questions the assumption that Russian defence insdustry is working 24/7 and keeps growing. Il's Aviastar subsidiary in Ulyanovsk has 780 vacancies, UAZ has 368. Russian industry is certainly hitting limits be it machinery or labor shortages.

На «Авиастаре» открыто 780 вакансий, на УАЗе - 368

73online.ru

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

17)Armata is still in trials, Kh-31 was adopted but then the Tu-22M3M that was to carry it was cancelled, Project 855 sub never being adopted but becoming a test bed for Project 855M. Even the Su-57 is being accepted with a planned re-engining amongst other systems being pending.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

In all seriousness military history has plenty of examples how after being stuck in such a situation the following process of untangling and forming cohesive assault groups isn't easy. And that's even without there being opposing fire directed at the columns.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

16)But if we then go back to Ru MoD's overall experience with pre-production models we see that it's not really an indication for adoption or that these systems are anywhere as mature as the promotion materials suggest.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

1 month

Gazprom reported a net loss of 629,1 billion rubles in 2023 vs a net profit of 1,23 trillion rubles in 2022. Expectations were for 447 billion rubles in profit. Revenue decreased by 3 trillion rubles from 11,6 trillion to 8,6 trillion rubles.

«Газпром» отчитался о первом с 1999 года чистом убытке

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

20 days

I have issues with the statements that Russia is recruiting 30 000 for the war every month. If we looked at the unemployed statistics for 2022 and 2023 we see a decrease by almost 520 000 in 2022 and 560 000 in 2023. This is for all unemployed ages 15-72 with >50% being women.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

If Kyiv holds for a few more days, has enough time for newly raised units to coalesce, disseminate tactics to units, augment the vehicle pool with civilian ones and coordinate with the growing local reporting network, he's not going to have an army.

Hanna Liubakova

@HannaLiubakova

2 years

Brest, #Belarus , a few kilometers from the border with Poland, the NATO country. All equipment is marked with the letter V. We are asking Belarusians to send us information🇷🇺 troops. By deploying the troops on the border with Poland, Putin also wants to threaten NATO

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

It should have been retired ages ago, but the VMF has such a severe shortage of major surface combatants that these are kept. And I don't think the decision making structures understood how much of a liability it is to keep a 70s ship with limited upgrades in service.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

After the publishing for my article on the state of Russian manpower fell through I am posting it here, part 1:

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 months

We have data on the Ru weekly consumption of gasoline for March, it rose by 13 000 tons per day in March to 794 000 tons a week and currently Ru oil firms are supplying more to the market than they are producing with 13-19 of Mar supply of 779 400 tons.

У страха цены велики

Российский топливный рынок боится дефицита

www.kommersant.ru

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

In 2018 Flot Prom pointed to older Russian ships having severe issues with their fire suppression systems. Again something that's been postponed as most modernisation plans have been scrapped.

Эксперты: российские крейсеры боятся огня из-за устаревших противопожарных систем

Существующие системы пожарной сигнализации и пожаротушения на российских крейсерах проектов 1164 "Атлант", 1144 "Орлан" и 11435 "Кречет" устарели и не соответствуют современным требованиям. Об этом...

flot.com

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 months

Russian gasoline production the week of 18-24th March declined significantly 754 600 tons and diesel production rose a bit to 1648 100 tons. March 2023 20-26 Mar, gasoline production was 880 000 and diesel production was 1769 100.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

And to add there are no good ways to refuel a thousand vehicles or more parked in parallel on a secondary road.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 months

I want to add something today about the Russian armaments industry. UVZ currently employs a bit over 20 000 people and isn't paying bonuses in full that it brags about and workers are winning cases in court against it with the help of their union.

Рабочие Уралвагонзавода массово пошли в суд. Они требуют выплат за выполнение оборонного заказа

Первые 8 исков завод уже проиграл, а дела по остальным попросил закрыть от прессы

www.e1.ru

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

As a summary, the hope that their army would reach 1,5 million soon is a form of fiction. Medvedev's numbers are imaginary, Russia doesn't have a spare army or two to do anything and the irrecoverable losses are in the hundreds of thousands.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

7 months

Here's what the data I gathered on the more recently missing Russian soldiers says about their age and composition, they're older, they're more likely to be ex-convicts and mobilised men and the intake of young volunteers is remarkably low:

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

Also I forgot to add that there are tens of thousands of LNR and DNR regulars and mobilised that were added to the contractee pool. Basically the contractee number has in fact declined somewhat compared to late 2021.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

Now this is the new normal, things will not improve drastically without big investments which the budget for 2024 just doesn't have, we're talking trillions of roubles here. Russia can either be at war or sustain itself, not both.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 months

We have data on Belarus' gasoline exports toRussia. They are 100-150 000 tons gasoline per month which if Russian production is between 750-770 000 will not be enough to cover the deficit.

Бензин выехал на запасах

Производство сократилось незаметно для рынка

www.kommersant.ru

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

More from my research. Back in late September Russia still had some notable reserves of mobilized troops. Here's how the MIAs from mobilized men were distributed over Russia's regions However some of the regions remaining shouldn't be expected to have raised full regiments:

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

2 years

By 2019-2020 it was deemed uneconomical to even attempt it. It had years left in it. I believe it was seen that by the mid 2020s it would need 3 years in servicing to extend the life by another 5 years.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

We know that in 2021 the contractees were at least 435 000, but when they give that figure they omit officers. The story said 405 000 announced in march and 30 000 more added over 2020. It also aims for 500 000 soon, but I can't dig up a source on that.

В российской армии будет полмиллиона контрактников

Руководство Минобороны РФ рассчитывает увеличить почти до 500 тысяч число контрактников в российской армии.

www.interfax.ru

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

Medvedev is off by at least a factor of 2. So the army has lost somewhere maybe 150 -200 000 contractees. Unknown number of Wagnerites pre-reintegration and a ton of mobilised men. Also FSB uniformed troops, police, Rosguard and so on.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

5 months

The officer numbers I am used to working with are between 70 000 and 90 000. So already we have at least 505 000 at the start of 2021. Now let's add other thing that were added to the MoD payroll in 2022. Then the LNR/DNR regulars + mobilized. We're now looking at 555-575 000.

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Stanimir Dobrev

@delfoo

3 months

Here's how gasoline and diesel production has been going in Russia over the last 13 weeks. December was relatively stable but after that you had parts that couldn't be replaced breaking, long weekends and initially a few UA attacks.

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