degentrading @degentradingLSD Twitter profile

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

Musings of a mac donalds worker

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

Why Celsius and 3AC going under should cause you to worry 1/x

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

1/n - Contagion is here. Let me show you how we are COMPLETELY FUCKED.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

Why the lenders are in trouble and you should be worried. 1/x

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@degentradingLSD

2 years

Why stETH and ETH "peg" breaking should cause you to worry. 1/x

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

1/n - Why DCG and Genesis will go bankrupt - All information from public sources.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

3 years

[1/N] CLEARING UP THE SAYLOR FUD As BTC plunges, expect massive amount of Saylor FUD - that this man will be forced to sell. The situation is not as dire - let me explain

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

I can't say too much but you are sorely mistaken if you think that Celsius and 3AC is the end of it. The dominos are falling. Contagion.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

How fucked is BlockFi? An exploratory journey with me. 1/x

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

18/x - Finally, if you found this thread useful, please retweet it so that people are properly aware of the big mess we are actually in. This is not the time to bid because of a squiggly line. As much as i like curves.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

9/n - Expect all SOL and Sam coins to be dumped to oblivion by lenders trying to get any money back.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

1/n - Prediction - DCG will choose to unwind GBTC and send in 600k of BTC into the market for sale

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

3/x - First of all, 3AC collapse is monumental. This is because they borrow from EVERY SINGLE MAJOR lender. Think BlockFi, Genesis, Nexo, Celsius. Expect every lender to take on hits from 3AC

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

1/n - Why @GMX_IO will fail

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

Every in @Gemini EARN program - GET THE FUCK OUT NOW. It's by @GenesisTrading . This is not a Drill. This is not a Parody. Please SPREAD THIS

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

19/x - Also - If you are wondering why BTC and ETH are the first to be sold off, its because in a crisis, you sell what you can. Not what you want. There is no liquidity for shitcoins/ "alts"/ dreams

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

1/n - IF DCG is indeed the entity that owes 1bn to Genesis - we are fucked.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

17/x - However, if nobody steps in. We might see prices going below 10k. After all, we have had the perfect storm for a run up (QE etc) now we have the perfect storm for major deleveraging across all financial assets (rate hikes, QT, inflation)

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

2/n - FTX accepting the bail out means that they effectively have a hole. Sure, CZ will bail out FTX. But he's not going to bail out Alameda. @cz_binance pls let me know if im wrong

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

1/x - Why alts are resilient in the first initial part of the sell off - and also why you shouldnt be duped into buying it - a short iq 50 thread

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

tldr - we going under

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

3 years

[END] Truth is, Saylor has way more diamond hands than you. He took real life leverage that cant get him liquidated while you took leverage on a 100 vol asset using the underlying as collateral. He rode his stock from 3130 to 11 USD [-99.6%] and survived. This is a blip.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

3/n - Alameda has been going out and borrowing from all the lenders via giving $FTT as collateral. CZ will probably let it go to zero

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

5/n - The 2 biggest lenders, BlockFi and Genesis probably have a 10b balance sheet. How much of that was lent to Alameda? At least a few b.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

4/n - This means the lenders are underwater. They now own illiquid FTT that CZ is perfectly happy to let it go to zero.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

8/n - We are going to see a credit contraction of at least 10b dollars within the space

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

1/n - Why BOJ hiking rates means down only - yes it's time to panic

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

6/n - Since Alameda is not being bailed out, the lenders will have to absorb the full hit. But they just got rekt by 3AC! and the miners!

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

1/n - FTX and Alameda's balance sheet - a deep dive

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

10/x - Not all lenders are made equal. Celsius is the worst. It has gone under. Nexo i dont know. BlockFi is pretty bad as well (afterall how do you lose money in a bull mkt?) Genesis is probably the cleanest sheet in the room

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

2/x - First of all, why should you listen to a cartoon animal working in mcd? I called the celsius collapse As well as 3AC (in private - for those who i talk to) This is not dancing on graves. I just dont want retail to get further liquidated.

degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

Why stETH and ETH "peg" breaking should cause you to worry. 1/x

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

7/x - Not being able to meet a margin call is the death knell for any hedge fund. Crypto or tradfi. There are reports of them trying to use Starkware equity as collateral. Well, i guess you can call it StuckWare.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

Feeling sus but I think @jump_ is defending a big ETH position….thin liquidity is making this easy for now but I think if we puke past these levels they will have to unwind bigly….

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

9/x - These lenders are ill-prepared. They operate a 10/20bn balance sheet with about 5% of equity buffer. That means that defaults will cause SIGNIFICANT EQUITY erosion.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

12/x basic math. When credit leaves the system, there is less money overall. Less money for the same amount of coins. coin price down.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

4/x - The last public number for 3AC's assets was tagged as 18bn. I strongly suspect their real NAV to be much lower then. There were rumors of them pledging their deribit stake even though they had already disposed of it economically.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

8/x - 3AC is one of the biggest borrowers/clients for the lenders globally. Their collapse would transfer the economic risk to their lenders. The lenders will bear the pnl difference between how much they are owed versus what they get in liquidating their collateral

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

7/n - At this point, i expect the lenders to go under. Who deposited to them?

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

1/n - The real estate crisis in China and how crypto is going to be down 50% from here

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

15/x - In essence, the collapse of a major fund and a major lender will shrink overall credit in the system and lead to continued deleveraging. So far we have had a orderly liquidation but more people need to delever still.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

8 months

1/n - Crazy hypothesis - but is @DWFLabs working tightly together with @binance to squeeze out the last remaining bits of money from retail?

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

11/x - What this means is that lenders will protect themselves by withdrawing credit from the system. All the lenders probably have about 50bn (estimated) in loan creation...i expect 30-40bn of credit to be destroyed. i.e loans to be recalled and credit to be shrunk

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

16/x - Price wise, honestly i have no idea. We probably need the big casino owners to step in. After all if all your clients die, you'll need to wait for more clients to come in again for your business to work out.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

1/n - One year ago, I made a thread about how Saylor wont be forced to sell. Update - Now he WILL be forced to sell.

degentrading

@degentradingLSD

3 years

[1/N] CLEARING UP THE SAYLOR FUD As BTC plunges, expect massive amount of Saylor FUD - that this man will be forced to sell. The situation is not as dire - let me explain

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

6/x - Their liquid pf would be worth 2.7bn at best. If you add the shit coin exposure, realistically their liquid pf would have drawn down to 1bn or less. Which matches the reports on the street that they are unable to meet their margin calls.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

20/x - read this

degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

1/x - Why alts are resilient in the first initial part of the sell off - and also why you shouldnt be duped into buying it - a short iq 50 thread

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

13/x - for the more sophisticated ones. When credit is removed, the overall balance sheet of every single player shrinks because risk assets are marked down. Market makers are less able to provide liquidity.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

5/x - But lets use 18bn. Assume that 9bn of it is mtm VC portfolio. 9bn of it liquid. Assume that all of it was in the safest BTC - (yes i know they have alt L1s which died terribly) - From Nov 21 till now, their liquid pf would have drawn down by close to 70%

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

3 years

[6/N] But oh no! what if the board forces saylor to sell? Saylor himself owns 25% of microstrategy but he also owns the majority of Class B shares which have 10x voting power giving him 72% of the voting power. I.E Saylor CANNOT be forced by anybody to sell.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

8 months

So general take from Token2049 - events are still flushed with cash (WOWZAS) - VCs aren’t deploying - either they have no cash or they don’t dare to do a capital call now - Interesting emergence of more liquid trading funds - For surviving HFs, AUM is down on avg 50% from start

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

14/x - bid ask spreads widens, for funds - with increased volatility, they need to delever their risk exposures to maintain the same amt of VaR. Also, LPs will get scared by UST and now Celsius? Best to prepare for redemptions and sell ahead

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

1/n - What happened in tradfi pre-march 2020 and the parallels between now. tldr. panic and prepare

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 months

1/n - Why I chose $PEPE as my fighter over $WIF and $BONK

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

Prediction - This cycle will end with the liquidation of Saylor and $MSTR.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

Liquidity ranking - 1 to 10 - 10 being the most liquid BTC - 10 ETH - 6 BNB - 5 Alt L1s SOL - 3 AVAX - 3 Every other trash, im not even gonna bother.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

21 days

1/n - My thoughts on why the next 6 months will be RELENTLESS UP ONLY.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

10 months

1/n - Why i think that $BTC will go up to 40k over the next crisis in tradfi - LFG

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

1/n - Where is the contagion? Who is fucked?

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

22/x - However, this may be the first cycle where we break past the previous high. What will this do to the psyche of "investors"? The break in narrative will be extremely damaging - some will lose faith

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

3 years

[8/N] In conclusion 1. The latest round of purchase will not have the ability to liquidate his previous holdings 2. The interest payment on his bonds CANNOT liquidate him 3. Nobody has the power to force him to sell. At All.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

For those thinking that Defi is cheap...SUSHI implied PE is 843x.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

2/x - First of all, if you have funds with a third party anywhere - get out while you can. Some will survive, some wont but best to wait till the dust has cleared.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

3 years

FUD blasting thread about Evergrande - The Asian property developer that everybody is talking about and yet nobody really knows about. I dealt in Asia Credit and i have seen some particularly bad takes on this whole EVERRE situation. [1/n]

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

15/x - In conclusion, BlockFi is probably in a really bad state. It is an example of one of those venture unicorns that never made the leap to profitability, surviving off the generous teat of venture financing.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

17/x - All the rest will fall in contagion because they have lines with each other. This is Lehman for us.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

13/x - The various lenders definitely have exposure to 3AC. BlockFi, Genesis and Nexo. Heck. Nexo even loaned money against NFTs for 3AC - Floor prices for those jpegs are gonna see a market in free fall.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 months

1/n - Will Ethena get exploited in a UST style crash?

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

3 months

1/n - A short compilation of my thoughts on the differences between this cycle and previous cycles

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

7 days

$TAO - The "RIGGED" mining of subnets - How subnet owners and validators are just mining and dumping on you.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

3/x - Lets stick with facts first. There is an asian lender in trouble. Miners have been overlevered. Instead of buying protection, a few have been overly bullish and instead did a real texas hedge.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

@HodlMagoo @Gemini @GenesisTrading FTX and Alameda are 2 different entities

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@degentradingLSD

1 year

so there's Jump, FTX hacker and DCG all waiting to dump.... who blinks first?

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

People who had their money on FTX went bust. They dont have the money to rebuy back their BTC deltas. There is no 1.4b of "pending BTC buys"

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

14/x - Of all these 3 lenders. BlockFi is definitely pretty weak. First of all, they did a down round at 1b from 3b. This means they are short of cash. Most importantly it means that they probably did not make money in one of the biggest bull markets in crypto

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

8/x - Liquid tokens and more pertinently for us - their GBTC stake.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

@HodlMagoo @TheCryptoDog you are right. i got fired last week when i cried all over the fries. extra salty special

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

1/n - Why Deribit might be in trouble - As usual, get out unnecessary balances

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

18/x - This credit destruction will trigger further selling. Which begets further selling because our entire industry is built on leverage. Miners. Lenders.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

15/x - A down round in venture is severely damaging to everybody. You only do it if you are fighting for survival. If you can't even make money in a bull market where there are no defaults. How can you make money in a bear market with higher default rates?

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

4/x - Lending to miners is pretty terrible risk wise. Usually you'll ask for 200% collateral. 100% of which are liquid coins (think BTC), the other 100% of which are machines. When BTC has done a huge drop like this, the liquid collat is severely devalued. The machines?

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

@cryptosnails_io buy eth at $500

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

3 years

[5/N] Their main business makes about ~50M in net profit - basically, Saylor makes enough money to cover the annual interest by 10X. - This means that from now till 2025 at least, Saylor CANNOT be liquidated as long as he pays the interest on the 0.75% 2025 bond

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

14/x - After all, are you willing to lend a company that has an equity hole 250m which is subordinate to client deposits? Not many people would. @SBF_FTX is probably doing this to save american retail so that the fallout from this is contained.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

1/n - BlockFi's collapse - What does it mean and how hurt are we

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

7/x - Lets go to the more juicy part. We all know that 3AC has defaulted due to them being overly levered. This leverage was taken from the lenders. What could 3AC have posted as collateral?

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

21/x - tldr - the lenders are in trouble from themselves, 3ac and other levered clients. We will continue to face collateral liquidations in a downward spiral of endless selling.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

12/x - Why did Morgan Creek leak such details though? Simply because they were investors at every round and stand to lose every single cent should the FTX deal go through. Heck the depositors! The investors should be made whole! clowns.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

9/x - BlockFi accepting this deal that zeroed all equity holders, implies then that the company on a balance sheet level is at negative equity. insolvent.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

1/n - $SUI tokenomics are extremely predatory. This is NOT your normal airdrop playbook

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

6/x - As a major asian lender, you also have lines with other lenders. This is where contagion starts. The lender in question has a balance sheet of 2-5bn if estimates on the streets are correct

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

5/x - illiquid and difficult to dispose of at anywhere close to book value. As a lender to these entities, BTC dropping is disastrous for you.

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@degentradingLSD

3 years

[7/N] Don't take my word for it though. Go to their annual report : On page 32

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@degentradingLSD

2 years

Don’t think Genesis is going under but then again I was wrong on FTX…if they do unwind GBTC…—> sell pressure on GBTC gets transferred into BTC itself, BTC to 8k? Ohaiyo saylorrrr

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

1 year

14/n - By selling Grayscale, he will give away the crown jewel to someone else for LESS money. By unravelling GBTC, he can get the money that he needs and restart this. The incentives are clear

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

17/x - He who panics first, panics best. There is no upside in holding any assets with celsius. Get out if you can.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

16/x - I touched upon the lending business model. Essentially every other lender is capitalized at 5-10% equity to asset base. 3AC's fall out is just the first to come. There will be many more defaults. As long as one lender comes into distress

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

12/x ultimately, panic selling in stETH will lead to selling in ETH and drag down the broader crypto complex. We already have macro headwinds, these structural selling flows will exacerbate the crisis. In my opinion we will see a repeat of march 2020.

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degentrading

@degentradingLSD

2 years

19/x - If we take the aggregate balance sheet of all the lenders out there - thats 50bn of credit. If one lender goes under. Expect that 50bn to vaporise. This will damage the entire crypto marketcap by maybe 300bn - assuming that every dollar into

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@degentradingLSD

1 year

1/n - Unpacking the mess that is $GBTC right now