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🎂 Decentrader turns 2 today! 🎂
We're doing a giveaway everyday this week to celebrate!
To enter, just like and retweet - you can enter every day!
Today we're giving away a lifetime Predator subscription, check it out in action below 👇
Some very interesting observations on exchanges and with the miners; thread about why we remain bullish;
1/Miners have sold virtually no coins in the last 32 days.
The recent move from $17k to $23k matches the 2017 move around the 1000 day mark.
Price ranged and moved slightly higher for 30 days and then put in another big move of roughly equal size.
If
#Bitcoin
continues to mirror 2017 we could be in for a big move this week.
We've got a public livestream today from
@filbfilb
and
@PositiveCrypto
Like and retweet to enter todays giveaway:
1 x Annual Standard membership
1 x Lifetime Predator access
The
#Bitcoin
Investor Tool suggests according to previously cycles, that anything up to $35,500 represents a good accumulation opportunity.
The upper band is currently at $177,700.
Current
#Bitcoin
Open Interest is the lowest it has been in the last 12 months.
Lower than post FTX and this includes coin margined, and price is higher currently than post FTX.
A lot of leverage has been cleared out of the system.
History doesn't repeat but often rhymes as the saying goes.
The current cycle has elements similar to both the 2013 and 2017 cycles, which is not surprising as the catalyst (halving) is same for each.
A repeat would put end of bear market Jan-Feb 2023, or around day 1000.
Price is back up at $71,000 area. The last time it was here funding was too high and
#bitcoin
price pulled back accordingly.
This time round funding rates are much lower.
1/
#bitcoin
is trending up again and the Predator Indicator is showing us the way...
4hr: green
8hr: green
12hr: green
Daily: green
How high it goes? Only Predator knows.
Is
#Bitcoin
still good value?
Below the 2 Year Moving Average, it is typically considered undervalued by the market.
It is currently at $34,721, with price at $28,332.
7/ SImple dynamics tells us that there is a shortage of supply, which is now being exasperated by miners... what do they know; how are they all holding back supply together?
Worth keeping an eye on the miner flow, but its "when" not if, we break $50k under these conditions.
Bitcoin 1 Year Hodl Wave.
Shows the % coins held for 1 year+
Currently sat at 58% following a 2x in price.
Last cycle at 2x ATH it was the same value; investors are behaving the same.
About 5% of 1 Year Hodl's coins have been dumped.
#Bitcoin
dominance seems to have been rejected off of the 48% level yet again.
With the upcoming Shanghai Hardfork, if Bitcoin consolidates we could see some big moves in altcoins.
Current
#Bitcoin
Liquidity Map.
Matches the current range exactly. Long liquidations are just below the 200WMA and the Short liquidations are sat above massive resistance and sell wall.
If we consolidate for a while this could give alts their time to shine.
We've just made live our latest update to the Commando Market Scanner!
The best looking coins here are:
$INJ $FTM $UMA $TRX $TVK
Lets use $INJ as an example.
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Market update time!
Pi cycle top indicator has been getting a lot of attention lately & was created by DT cofounder
@PositiveCrypto
Let's see what he has to say on whether it means
#bitcoin
is toping or not in our free market update for the community🙏
The
#Bitcoin
Long/Short ratio has been decreasing as price increases which is generally is favourable for the bulls.
However it still remains at historically elevated levels at
68%.
Slightly different rules for todays giveaway! You guys get to decide what the prize is:
Comment if you want 2x annual Predator subscriptions ($990 each)
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Winner(s) picked from those who comment or retweet!
With two weeks to go until the Bitcoin Halving, price has rallied back above the Stock to flow line.
After the halving the S2F line then begins its aggressive move up.
Currently, 75% of
#Bitcoin
traders are positioned long which is historically a very high amount.
This heightens the risk of cascading long liquidations.
The previous 4 CPI data releases have all followed a very similar pattern for
#Bitcoin
.
Volatility both ways to liquidate everyone, then price reverts back to where it was immediately prior to CPI release.
#Bitcoin
Funding Rates are starting to creep up ahead of tomorrows June CPI release.
CPI events tend to be volatile and liquidation hunts, so if one side is imbalanced (longs currently) they can make themselves more of a target.
#Bitcoin
is getting very close to breaking above the 2 Year moving average at $32,822.
Historically, underneath the 2 Year MA has provided a fantastic accumulation opportunity ahead of the following halving cycle.
The
#Bitcoin
move yesterday looks more like a technical move to clear out stops above the previous yearly highs.
Momentum now to the downside with Predator Red on the hourly.
In
#bitcoin
's previous two cycles, the halving price was very comparable to the price 100 days out from the halving, which is where we are now this cycle.
MVRV Z-Score has formed a bottoming pattern very similar to previous market cycle bottoms.
Typically once the score gets this high it doesn't re-enter the green bands for quite a long period of time.
The number of wallets holding at least 10
#Bitcoin
are approaching their all-time high. They sold off from Jan 2021, but have been accumulating since Feb 2022!
You've been asking for it so here it is:
To celebrate the launch of our Black Friday deals, we're doing a weeks Free Trial of Commando!
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You're welcome!
MVRV Z-Score is now further from the Green band than during the August 22 high at $25k.
Above $25k will be very decisive for
#Bitcoin
, everything is point to a showdown there!
6/ Puell Multiple shows that miners are very relatively in the money with their stock vs. the average of the previous year.
Despite this, they are hodling
The total amount of staked
#Ethereum
has increased 6% in the last month alone, increasing by over 1 million $ETH.
Seems unlikely they would stake for 1 month, to insta unlock and dump for 0.375% (4.5% APR/12).
The ability to withdraw could get more users staking.
It's important to remember that
#Bitcoin
's halving happens on one day, but the new inflation level is set for 4 years.
This is why around day 1000 (today!) price tends to recover - there's just not as much Bitcoin being emited to sell.
There remains a sizeable amount of 3x, 5x, and 10x shorts liquidity for
#Bitcoin
between $76,000 and $78,500.
If price does break out to new all-time high there could be a sharp move up that takes out that liquidity.
El Salvadors Finance Minister says he has demand for up to $1.5bn for Bitcoin bonds.
Half goes to build Bitcoin City.
Half buys
#bitcoin
, so potentially a $750mil buy order coming in the next few weeks.
ETH is similar with a potential double bottom in good trade location up against trend line resistance now off the ath. Price has reclaimed the Moonraker and weekly vwap with Predator on a 3rd green candle MACD and RSI have bull divs with Terminator green
#bitcoin
major support and resistance levels highlighted by the new Sniper tool:
Support:
$36,580
$34,700
$33,750
Resistance:
$40,600
$44,100
Get up to 40% off Sniper and other tools in the Black Friday Sale:
1/
#bitcoin
is really at a critical level here. Off the back of a lot of ETF expectations, price is right up against v.important weekly resistance.
Predator remains green on the weekly which is encouraging for a potential trend continuation. Time to pay attention 👀
As
#Bitcoin
ranges the liquidity map remains relatively constant.
There is a lot of liquidity sat below the 200WMA, with the nasty 3x starting below $23k.
A little 10x short liquidity is building from $29k - $30k. Still a way away from that, but the longer we range the more it
Is
#Bitcoin
over valued?
According to the MVRV Z-Score, Bitcoin is still far from being over valued and is currently much closer to the green accumulation zone.
$BTC looking strong with a confirmed double bottom above the 78.6 and trend line off the ath. Price has reclaimed the Moonraker and weekly vwap with Predator on a 5th green candle. MACD, OBV, RSI and Terminator all have bull divs.
On top of our Premium Indicators, our founder
@filbfilb
has some free TradingView scripts:
Bitfinex Longs v Shorts
Kimchi Premium
Consolidated OBV ( $ETH spot )
Consolidated OBV ( $BTC spot )
$GBTC premium
Simply favourite them to add to your TradingView account - enjoy!
GM☕️ $BTC continued lower overnight and has taken out the Jan 10th low and running some 10x liquidations below. Nuke potential is certainly there with lots of liquidity starting below $38,000
#Bitcoin
Cycle Comparison.
A simple yet very powerful chart. Regardless of what has happened in the world it still stays true.
Previous cycles have had local double tops on:
Day 1073 & 1118 (Red, 2013)
Day 1084 & 1127 (Blue, 2017)
We are currently on day 1083 (Green, 2021).
#Ethereum
Open Interest has increased by 10% over the past week, approximately $500 million.
At the same time,
#Bitcoin
Open Interest has decreased by 10%, a $1 billion drop.
#bitcoin
just had a leverage flush out.
Funding rates had been climbing higher as price ranged, up as high as 0.07. Then price dumped back below $70k and funding went back down with it.
$BTC weekly price action off the April top has been almost identical on the way down. If price continues to follow the pattern a recovery to the upside could look something like this. Momentum has been steadily improving as well.
Not much liquidity either side of Bitcoin price currently after the retrace from $44,000.
Still a large amount of liquidity waiting between $44,500 - $47,500 though.
GM USA!
Sorry to hear about all your banks.
If you want to buy some
#Bitcoin
we've got liquidity from here up to $27,700 and if you're feeling extra spicy that massive wick in liquidity is at $28,700.
At the same point we have a highly loaded
#Bitcoin
Open Interest!
The shorts are putting a massive target on themselves! Plenty of fuel for liquidations and many people already positioned short.
The
#Bitcoin
Investor Tool is still in the green 'accumulation' band.
Previous cycles have gotten to the red band. Last cycle was 3.2% away.
Currently, the band is $186k, 3.2% away is $180k.
However, it does tend to trend higher over time...
23rd October is the end of Evergrande's grace period and is potentially a flash point for volatility.
We think, for crypto, it could be used as a FUD opportunity to flush out over-leveraged traders before whales buy the dip.
#Ethereum
is looking a little healthier than
#Bitcoin
and has held up better over the last couple of weeks.
Seems to partially be from interest building over the Shanghai Hard Fork and also from $ETH continuing to be deflationary.