Over *four years* ago I was a research analyst at
@scalarcapital
.
The Terra / $LUNA deal came across our desk and I was assigned to it because I was the DeFi guy. Here's what I had to say about the project.
How did we allow it to end up like this?
Quick investment ๐งต
Probably one of the best investing 'abilities' is to recognize trends ahead of time, find talent, etc etc. Like, if you knew BTC or ETH or punks were gonna blow up, awesome. You made $$$. But that's really, really hard. I also think there's a second
Why is everyone surprised? We've literally been talking about this exact situation for 4 years.
Hope y'all are following the right people on Crypto Twitter. It can honestly make or break your portfolio.
Time for a mega-๐งตon what I've learned about Olympus over the last few days since I publicly skewered them for running a ponzi.
Was that accurate? Was it warranted? Read and find out!
1/25
Imagine if El Salvador๐ธ๐ป used 1/3 of its GDP to market buy BTC and burn it, every year ๐ฑ
Well, that's exactly what EIP-1559 does, but for $ETH.
๐ฆ๐๐ฅ
So Su's best argument is that ETH OGs got rich and lazy? ETH community has proved its commitment to building. Where is EOS? NEO? TRON? And a hundred other 2017 era ICOs. Only ETH community kept building.
If anyone is liable to get rich and lazy after 100x run up its the new L1s.
Spoke with North American Bitcoin miners. They committed to publish current & planned renewable usage & to ask miners WW to do so. Potentially promising.
Am I the only one not worried about a bear market? The difference with 2018 is that back then there were no value investors. People legit thought crypto was going to die, and so no capital was waiting to scoop in. This time, pretty much everyone is in agreement that the
Imagine thinking โusers donโt actually care about decentralizationโ in a world where China just banned all the exchanges and Gensler is similarly trying to crack down in the U.S.
Congrats on being tricked, lied to, and misled into buying centralized VC bags.
I met the smartest retail investor ever tonight. Does all his research 8pm-12am. Plays around with L2s. No cardano. No dog coins. No Bitcoin. Mainly in Eth. Curious about Eth killers.
Bullish.
It feels bubbly, it feels toppy, I don't understand all of it. But it's clearly extremely popular. And I'm just not convinced that I'm late to this game. I don't care that I'm lifting highs. If this takes off, in a few years I'll look back and realize I was actually pretty early.
Just because some absolute chad genius found it years before me and has an extra 100x under his belt doesn't mean there isn't huge upside left for the rest of us. I still didn't go mega hard, but again a tiny bit more. It's a slow process that I'm training myself for.
When I found punks *only this year* everything was already up ~100-1000x. But I've been training myself to think "hey maybe I'm still early." Maybe, if I'm spending 24/7 consuming in this space, it's actually unlikely that I'm "late" to recent popular trends.
My point is, I don't feel like I have to jump on every hot trend from the start, or discover things purely on my own. Sometimes just being around and keeping your eyes open can be enough. To that end, I aped into a bunch of degenerative art lately.
Jim Simons net worth: $25 billion
Ken Griffin: $25 billion
Ray Dalio: $20 billion
Bernard Arnault: $188 billion
Hedge funds may rule finance, but LVMH rules culture. There's an investing lesson somewhere in here on how to play ETH vs NFTs.
@TrustlessState
@scalarcapital
This is true. I've actually suffered some copium over the years because of Terra's "success." I'm not happy about how it turned out but I am pleased to be vindicated.
equally valuable and maybe (?) not often talked about facet of investing, and that's the notion of "feeling like you've missed the boat when you really, really haven't."
When I first found btc in 2015 I thought I was too late and barely invested. It had rallied 1,000x already!
For me there are three "financial" reasons to hold ETH.
1. All ETH benefits from burned tx fees through EIP-1559.
2. Staked ETH earns validator rewards.
3. Staked ETH earns MEV.
No one's even begun to think about the implications of number 3. Validator rewards on steroids.
Starting to lose faith in crypto. After 14 years, it just seems like they just don't want what we're selling.
Going to convert my eth back into argentine pesos and turkish lira and call it a day.
Did the Fed just accidentally hyperinflate the money supply? Could
@balajis
be right?
A ๐งตon funny accounting tricks and why the Bank Term Funding Program is more confusing than it seems at first glance.
Someone sent me a valuation model that unironically puts an $ETH target of $4.4 million per coin.
Only the middle curvers would refute such a model. Smol and big brains know what's up.
Still processing that a centralized corporation run by a btc maximalist is building a centralized version of Ethereum and all the bitcoiners are rejoicing as if they wanted smart contracts and DeFi all along. In any case, what chance does this have over Liquid?
@zhusu
Suggesting that the Ethereum developer community is sitting around is fairly insulting to all of the researchers and engineers who have been working on ETH2 and L2s for the past six years. They deserve a bit more respect.
Massively underrated aspect of the NFT boom on Ethereum:
Scamcoin copychains like tron, bsc, eos, whatever the fuck, canโt clone our NFTs on their chains. No Maker clones, no Venus or pangolin, no pancake swap.
It's an embarrassing and pathetic time to be an ETH holder.
But, joke's on you, it's *always* been embarrassing.
Being dunked on during the DAO fork, Ethereum Classic, the ICO bubble, SlockIt, drawing down 95% in 2018, the ratio down-only for the last 6 years, DeFi that's not
Five Easy Steps to becoming a Bitcoin maxi
1. Skip the Ethereum ICO (1 BTC invested then worth ~$4 million today
2. Buy in at $15, but sell at $8 after the DAO hack
3. Short at $85 in Dec 2018
4. Short again at $120 in March 2020
5. Join your friends on Clubhouse in March 2021
One year ago ETH was trading below $900. Since then,
-Interest rates have gone from 1.25% to 5.25%
-FTX exposed as a fraud
-Silvergate, BlockFi, Genesis, and many more went bankrupt
-The SEC sued Coinbase and Binance
And ETH is up 2x from then. Don't daytrade crypto news.
In a nutshell:
Demand for cryptocurrency has greatly outpaced the technology given the macro climate. VCs and other financial opportunists have found a way to monetize this imbalance by shilling centralized chains to satiate the demand from retail.
So many people unable or unwilling to accept the bitter truth about Solana, especially now that it's received some pity from Vitalik.
So much sunk cost fallacy, white knighting, Stockholm syndrome. The truth is, Solana's "culture" has been an absolute carnival scam from day 1.
Here's a tiny bit of Sunday night alpha for you.
There are a few billion dollars of ETH/USD liquidity sitting across all the major DEXes. The vast majority of that TVL exists only because it earns healthy protocol subsidies from the liquidity mining / yield farming programs.
EIP-1559 will be the definitive separator between ETH and ETH killers. Here's the logic: right now speculators are content to hold alts because they have high beta and hype. But once ETH fees start getting burned, traders might switch to the yielding asset, widening the spread.
Unpopular opinion: nearly all of
@nntaleb
's critiques about the Bitcoin community and technology are spot on. And now they have finally matched up against someone they are unable to censor / silence / drown out with propaganda. Taleb is a threat because he carries
The
#CryptoPunks
have a new CEO!
Congrats to Punk
#2042
(
@cyounessi1
), taking over Punk
#835
Graffiti Message: "First punks token"
There can only be 1 CEO. Would you like to be the CEO? You can take over for 25,000,000 $CIG
upcoming bear is temporary. Crypto has already captured the world's attention and everyone acknowledges it's here to stay. There are probably a zillion funds ready to buy the dip. Last time there were zero.
So, apparently Sovryn has "staked" $2 billion of its own governance token and claiming it as TVL.
Despite it's circulating market being only $150mil (according to their website). No listing on Coingecko or CMC to confirm / deny.
Yet
@APompliano
and
@EdanYago
keep doubling down
Stablecoins are actually *really* easy to understand.
-If you want one widely accepted with perfect stability and don't fear regulatory risk, choose $USDC or $USDT.
-If you want one that supports your collateral of choice to borrow against and cannot be frozen, choose $DAI.
I'm not selling any of my DeFi tokens until they've flippened Litecoin, Bitcoin: Satoshi's Vision, and Cardano, the
#8
, 10, and 11 coins on CMC. Worth a combined $9.5 billion. $YFI + $UNI worth a combined $0.8 billion, less than NEM. You can pry them from my dead, broke hands. ๐
Looking back, I am just shocked by the number of people I was unable to convince over the last two years.
I donโt think I onboarded a single person this last bear market. Family, friends, old professors, old tradfi colleagues all just looked at me with apathetic eyes.
My personal recap from 2022.
-I'm a better trader than 3ac and Alameda
-I'm a better lender / borrower than Genesis, FTX, and Celsius
-I helped build a better stablecoin than Luna
-I'm a better self-custodian than Bitcoin core devs
I wonder, is there truly no end to my talent?
Funniest part about tonight is that no one cares about or even remembers Bitcoin. Completely lost its seat at the table.
And yet itโs still
#1
by a large margin. No one is prepared for the volatility thatโs coming in the next few years.
Holy shit when people start actually doing the math on pfp market caps
and then also
when all the funds realize no one wants to buy their piece of shit broken ghost chains failed ETH killers but instead actually just want to hang out with their friends and nerd out over jpgs.
When I found eth in 2016 I thought I was too late and barely invested (it was up 400x already!). When I found YFI I thought...maybe I'm not so late? Even though the price had already gone up 10x. Did a *tiny* bit more size.
If 3AC and SBF and MCC and CZ and freaking Santa Claus all banded together to try to kill Ethereum through FUD, shorting, shilling alt L1s, whatever, they would lose. Full stop.
That's LITERALLY the whole point of why we're all here. We are decentralized and we are stronger.
Still thinking about how at $4800 everyone said we were going to $10k and at $1000 everyone said we were going to $600
And for btc at $69k everyone said we were going to $100k and at $15k everyone said we were going to $10k. Everyone is dumb including myself.
Before all this BS started back in April/May, $ETH was at ~$3000.
Since then, every single bad thing that has happened has only reinforced the investment thesis for $ETH.
1) Luna/UST showed that many high-profile alt-L1s are centralized, opaque, and grifty.
Kinda scary that without CME futures, without Square adoption, without all of the random institutional benefits and awareness that Bitcoin enjoys,
that $ETH has been so completely dominant this year.
Few things shock me in this space anymore.
But I just got shilled on pulsechain *in person* and it made me speechless. Like I struggled to form words and talk back. What do you even say to the person??
It's funny watching the broader crypto community ignore the giant, Ethereum-shaped elephant in the room. Literally every major problem in crypto has an active solution in progress by the talented Eth community.
Thank you for validating the Ethereum business model.
Now good luck trying to convince users / devs to leave a permissionless, decentralized, and credibly neutral dapp platform like Ethereum in favor of this centralized corporate chain.
Square is creating a new business (joining Seller, Cash App, & Tidal) focused on building an open developer platform with the sole goal of making it easy to create non-custodial, permissionless, and decentralized financial services. Our primary focus is
#Bitcoin
. Its name is TBD.
How did ETH just hard fork and there's not a second coin listed on any exchange?
How are all the miners (now collecting less profits) supporting this new version of the code without any dissention?
0/ 61 markets and $16,000 of open interest so far within 12 hours of Augur's launch. In case you're wondering "what's the big deal," let's go over some of the markets that have been created so far.
I will take a stab at this. Of course none of this has to do with the price, sol/eth could explode or crash, and it's completely irrelevant to this discussion. I'm merely trying to answer the question about decentralization.
Also, for once, let's keep Ethereum's decentralization
It took me *one minute* to check that my favorite DeFi protocols were solvent and hadnโt been diddling with reserves.
ONE.
MINUTE.
Meanwhile we are all scrambling like chickens with our heads cut off for WEEKS trying to find out if CEXes have been messing around. Unreal.
I worked at the Maker Foundation for 2 years and never once even came close to seeing ANYTHING that looked like a fake statistic, data point, TVL, etc etc. That team works hard to earn their TVL.
The last few weeks have made it crystal clear who's in it for the money and who's in it for the tech.
I have no problem with people who are solely in it for the money.
I have a huge problem with people who are in it for the money but pretend to be in it for the tech.
Some of you have never studied corporate finance, modern banking, or even simple fucking accounting and it shows.
Yet you all have the hubris to shill ponzi assets as "DeFi 2.0", UpOnly, new revolutions in finance.