NEW: Now, more than half of people dying of COVID were vaccinated
COVID is on track to be the 3rd leading cause of death, again.
Vaccines are highly effective but protection wanes. This is not simply a pandemic of the unvaccinated
#GetBoosted
#WearAMask
7/🧵 Last year, we said the "vast majority" of covid deaths were among unvaccinated people
That's no longer the case. Vaccines work, but vaxxed people represent 4 in 10 deaths in Jan and Feb 2022
This is no longer simply a "pandemic of the unvaccinated"
But have 830,000 people really died *from* COVID?
Yes. In fact, that may be an undercount.
942,431 more people have died since February 2020 than would have been expected based on pre-pandemic trends.
Sadly, gun violence is one of the factors contributing to a shorter life expectancy in the U.S. than in similarly wealthy nations. The U.S. has -- by far -- the highest rate of years of life lost to disability and premature death due to firearm assaults.
Covid vaccines are safe and highly effective. Vaccines have prevented countless deaths, and unvaccinated people represent most covid deaths.
Even so, vaccinated people represent a growing share of covid deaths. Why is this?
A quick thread: 1/🧵
NEW analysis: Rather than continuing to go without insurance, *4.2 million* uninsured people could get an
#ACA
bronze plan for FREE
We estimate 27% of uninsured potential Marketplace shoppers are eligible for a bronze plan with $0 premiums in 2019.
My colleagues at
@KHNews
reviewed over 500 hospitals.
Two-thirds of these hospitals sue patients or take other legal action against them, such as garnishing wages or placing liens on property.
One fifth deny non-emergency care to people in debt.
Hot off the presses: 2019
#ACA
silver plans will be *16%* higher than they would otherwise be if not for:
- Individual mandate repeal
- Expansion of loosely regulated plans
- Loss of CSR payments
Off-exchange
#premiums
are *6%* higher than otherwise.
With a slim majority in the Senate, some ACA charges Democrats might make:
- Change the mandate to moot SCOTUS case
- Boost ACA subsidies to lower premium payments and deductibles
- Extend ACA subsidies to those left out (Medicaid gap and over 400% FPL)
- End the “family glitch”
6/🧵 Better uptake of boosters would've brought protection back up to pre-Omicron levels. Boosters prevent 94% of deaths.
Furthermore, reducing community spread through masks, ventilation, screening, etc. would save more lives -- including unvaccinated, vaccinated, and boosted.
The ACA didn’t just prohibit insurers from denying the people with declinable conditions. The law also prohibits insurers from charging higher premiums for those conditions, and requires plans actually pay for care for those conditions.
There were 3,866 COVID deaths in the U.S. yesterday.
Heart disease, usually is the
#1
cause of death in the U.S., kills about 2,000 people per day.
Cancer takes about 1,600 American lives daily.
This isn’t mild.
In most of the country, low-income people can qualify for a FREE bronze plan on the
#ACA
marketplace.
In a few hundred counties, some enrollees can even get a $0 gold plan after subsidies.
It's important to shop around every year!
NEW: Who are the people with breakthrough COVID hospitalizations? We partnered with Epic using electronic medical records data to understand characteristics of vaccinated people who end up in the hospital with COVID:
3/🧵 One reason we're seeing vaccinated people represent a larger share of covid deaths?
Vaccinated people also represent a larger share of the population.
If 100% of people were vaccinated, 100% of deaths would be among vaccinated people.
But that's only part of the story...
@KrutikaAmin
@jenkatesdc
@joshmich
@JaredOrtaliza
@KFF
@PetersonCHealth
3/🧵 Not all covid deaths would have been prevented by vaccines.
In January and February 2022, covid was a leading cause of death.
And about 4 in 10 people who died were considered fully vaccinated.
This underscores the importance of boosters as well as masks and ventilation.
The Biden Admin is out with a new proposed rule that would create a new *monthly* opportunity for low-income people to sign up for free ACA health plans
5/🧵 And, an obvious contributor to the growing share and number of covid deaths among vaccinated people is: Omicron.
With many more vaxxed infections, there was a jump in the share (and number) of deaths among vaccinated people, from Dec 2021 to early 2022 as Omicron took hold
4/🧵 Vaccination rates grew slowly in Fall 2021 yet the share of deaths among vaxxed people continued to rise
This is partly due to waning immunity over time
Most vaxxed people dying of covid were older/higher-risk and were vaccinated months earlier
Hence the need for boosters
If when the Public Health Emergency ends in May, free COVID tests are harder to find, it may be harder to:
▪️Get timely Paxlovid treatment
▪️Use tests as screening before seeing vulnerable loved ones
▪️Test one's way out of COVID isolation/masking
▪️Know what's causing that cough
In
#Delaware
,
#Iowa
,
#Nebraska
, and
#Utah
, almost 1 in 2 currently uninsured people who could be buying Marketplace coverage will be able to get a $0 bronze plan in 2019.
But, will they even know this is an option?
Health insurers were so profitable last year (during the pandemic) that they are now issuing $2 billion in rebates to consumers, as required by the Affordable Care Act (ACA/Obamacare)
NEW: The cost of preventable COVID hospitalizations now tops $5 billion since June.
Taxpayers, businesses and workers paying insurance premiums are picking up most of the tab.
@PetersonCHealth
@KFF
@KrutikaAmin
Well, for one thing it was the beginning of the great mortality divergence. America used to have about the same life expectancy as other rich countries; since 1980, however, we've fallen far behind 3/
When voters are asked whether to expand
#Medicaid
under the
#ACA
, the answer is often yes.
@KFF
polling shows among those living in non-expansion states, two-thirds (65%) say they think their state should expand Medicaid to cover more people
Of the many whoppers last night, one that stood out was Trump saying the US has lower excess mortality than almost any other country
In reality, our new analysis shows the pandemic is widening the gap in mortality rates between the U.S. and peer countries
Today is a sad reminder that similar countries don't experience anything close to this level of gun violence. Guns are far more likely to shorten Americans’ lives or cause disability than in comparably large and wealthy countries.
Re-upping this with the deadline to sign up on TODAY.
Millions of uninsured people are eligible for FREE or very low-cost health insurance premiums. But they have to sign up today.
NEW analysis: Rather than continuing to go without insurance, *4.2 million* uninsured people could get an
#ACA
bronze plan for FREE
We estimate 27% of uninsured potential Marketplace shoppers are eligible for a bronze plan with $0 premiums in 2019.
@AdamSerwer
@joshtpm
79 percent of Americans think decisions about abortions should be made by women in consultation with their doctors, not lawmakers.
This is important to understand: If the ACA were overturned, even states that want to keep its consumer protections wouldn't be able to without the federal support.
In NV we codified the ACA protections into state statute, however without the subsidies and Medicaid match NO ONE will be able to afford insurance and thus the death spiral begins.
3/ Of course
#COVID
is still here, even when the
#PublicHealthEmergency
ends.
We estimated COVID was on track to be the 3rd leading cause of death in 2022, for the 3rd year in a row.
U.S. life expectancy has taken a bigger hit than peer countries.
1/ Biden will end the
#PublicHealthEmergency
(PHE) on May 11.
If you have private health insurance coverage, here's what will (and will not) change for you with the end of the PHE
2/🧵 First, what is not causing a growing share of covid deaths among vaxxed people?
While most people dying of covid are age 50+ these aren't all "incidental" deaths that would've happened anyway
Cause of death is investigated & many more people died than expected (excess death)
New analysis:
People hospitalized for COVID-19 treatment who have private insurance could face out-of-pocket costs exceeding $1,300 in the U.S.
Total costs could top easily $20,000.
#coronavirus
#COVID
#coronapocalypse
#CoronaOutbreak
Some nuance:
A law might *allow* people with
#PreExistingConditions
to access coverage
But without benefit requirements, it probably won't *cover* treatment for all conditions
And without limits on premiums & out-of-pocket costs, it won't *protect* people w/ pre-ex conditions
The Trump admin just released new data showing that private health insurers owe $𝟮,𝟰𝟱𝟴,𝟳𝟲𝟰,𝟭𝟲𝟵 in rebates to consumers under the ACA.
That's a record large amount, almost 𝗱𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲 the last record high. We came to a similar estimate in April
Curious how the Medicaid expansion works in Build Back Better? Here's a quick thread.
In short, BBB would close the Medicaid coverage gap in states like FL and TX that haven't expanded the program by allowing people living under poverty in those states to access ACA subsidies 🧵
A federal judge in Texas just ruled the
#ACA
is unconstitutional. This ruling will be appealed and is not the final say.
If you were planning to sign up for coverage on , you should still do that. The deadline is tomorrow, Saturday December 15.
NEW: We have two analyses out today about lowering the Medicare age.
First analysis illustrates the potential for big cost savings in employer health plans if older adults move to Medicare. That savings could translate to lower premiums and/or higher wages
NEW: The pandemic had a downward effect on life expectancy in many countries, but more so in the U.S. than its peers.
We estimate that similar high-income countries saw life expectancy drop an average of 0.5 years, while the U.S. lost 1.6 years.
NEW: Ozempic, Wegovy, and other drugs used for weight loss have made headlines for their high prices (~$1,000 per month in the U.S.)
But other high-income countries have much lower prices -- less than half the cost, and sometimes less than one tenth
@kff
A mom of 2 kids in Texas making $3,800 per year is expected to pay $5,000 per year just for her own health insurance.
If that same person made $30,000 per year, she would pay $0 per year for health insurance
If you're a parent in a family of three in Texas and make more than $3,733 PER YEAR, you make too much to qualify for Medicaid.
If you're an adult without kids in Texas who isn't elderly or disabled, you're ineligible, period.
It just depends how you define pre-existing conditions.
Over 50 million wouldn’t be able to get ANY coverage on pre-ACA individual market. (Declinable conditions)
Over 100 million might have gotten some offer but likely face higher premiums or exclusions (less severe conditions)
Joe Biden said 100m Americans had pre-existing conditions
The president said that was “totally wrong”
Govt says 50-129 million non-elderly Americans have pre-existing conditions
Other organisations have different estimates
#BBCRealityCheck
#Debates2020
The WaPo article cites an update to an analysis we last published in April. Back then, I pushed back against the argument that this was just “base rate fallacy.” With months of flat vax rates it’s even more clear now that wasn’t the main explanation. It’s also waning immunity
Covid vaccines are safe and highly effective. Vaccines have prevented countless deaths, and unvaccinated people represent most covid deaths.
Even so, vaccinated people represent a growing share of covid deaths. Why is this?
A quick thread: 1/🧵
The number of people visiting is down 21% from last year. New consumers down 18%. Total signups down 11%
The latest
#ACA
numbers suggest the drop in signups is primarily due to lack of awareness & possibly mandate repeal, more than lack of appealing plans
NEW: What might Biden do on health policy without Congress?
Here's a VERY LONG list of actions his administration might take to reverse controversial Trump actions and move some of Biden's campaign pledges forward, even if Rs maintain control the Senate.
Preventable COVID hospitalizations among unvaccinated adults have already cost over $2 billion in June and July alone.
The cost is mostly borne by taxpayer-funded public programs and private plans paid by workers and businesses.
New analysis: People living in the southern US are more likely to have
#preexistingconditions
that would leave them uninsurable in the individual market w/o the
#ACA
.
See how your area compares, using this interactive map
Our NEW analysis finds COVID cases & deaths are now rising fastest in rural areas
This follows our earlier findings that rural America has fewer ICU beds, older populations, and higher-risk health conditions
[THREAD] The U.S. spends more $$$ than any other country on health care, but gets worse health outcomes than similar countries.
We live shorter lives and have more disease burden. And the gap between the U.S. and other countries has grown.
2/ And here's what the end of the
#PublicHealthEmergency
(
#PHE
) -- combined with the expected depletion of the federal supply of COVID vax, tests, treatments -- means for costs of and access to pandemic-related care
@jenkatesdc
@joshmich
@KFF
PSA: If you're leaving your job in the Trump Administration, you can get health insurance on or your state's ACA exchange. You may qualify for Medicaid through Obamacare. Or you can get Temporary Continuation of Coverage, like COBRA. Or spousal coverage.
As my colleague
@KarenP720
says, "The problem is not that people are making bad choices. The problem is that they are flooded with bad choices to make."
Each year, I get to choose from dozens of health plans (I'm married to a federal worker).
My metric to pick? Whether it has two doctors I like in-network. I found it overwhelming to compare the benefit design.
And I write about this for a living!
President-elect Biden campaigned on protecting and building upon the
#ACA
. But without the Senate, Democrats may have few paths to preserve the law if SCOTUS rules against it. The future of
#Obamacare
could ride on the Georgia runoff election.
@MGeracoulis
@lourdesgnavarro
My Greek father-in-law very kindly made orzo for me since everyone else was eating lamb and I’m vegetarian
As I was about to bite in, my husband said “wait, Dad! Doesn’t that have veal in it??”
“Minimum. Just minimum veal.”
A big deal: Even though millions of people lost their jobs, the uninsured rate didn’t go up at all.
And it’s thanks to the ACA (Obamacare) and Medicaid.
NEW: Insurer participation on the
#ACA
exchange markets is now as strong as it was in 2014, when the markets first opened.
About 8 in 10 enrollees will have a choice of 3 or more insurers. Only 3% live in counties with just one insurer
We’ve estimated nearly half of uninsured people are eligible for free health insurance. So I’m often asked why they aren’t signing up. I suspect many just don’t know…
I just told a client to stop watching Fox News after he went off about the plans being unaffordable with $18K deductibles on the Marketplace. Then I added that none of them have read the law or even ran a quote. Oh and your sons premium will be $22 with a $0 deductible.
The ACA specifies circumstances when premiums CAN vary (location, age, tobacco) so other rating (e.g. based on gender) is inherently prohibited
The new GOP bill takes the opposite approach: It specifies circumstances when premiums CAN'T vary, giving insurers much more flexibility
Unlike the ACA, the new Republican pre-existing condition bill would not disallow lifetime or annual limits, cap patient out-of-pocket costs, require coverage of essential benefits, prohibit gender rating, or provide subsidies to make premiums more affordable.
NEW: If temporary ACA subsidies expire, coverage would be unaffordable for some middle-income people.
West Virginia and Wyoming are tied for the least affordable premiums. A 40-year-old making just over $51k would pay almost a fifth of their income.
I'm counting over a dozen new entrants to 2019
#ACA
Marketplaces...
AZ: Oscar
FL: Oscar
IA: Wellmark
ME: Anthem (if reinsurance)
MI: Oscar
NM: Presbyterian
NC: Centene
OH: 1-2 unknown companies
OK: Medica
TN: Bright
UT: Molina
VA: VA Premier
WI: Molina
...and zero exits
People on both the left and right have rightly criticized ACA deductibles. But keep in mind uninsured people have to make decisions based on current law/reality.
When 4 million uninsured ppl can get a free bronze plan, the high deductible is ALWAYS better than staying uninsured.
I know
@joebiden
means well in reopening the enrollment period for ACA marketplaces, so more people can sign up for coverage. But as an expert in the health insurance industry, I have a big concern: many people who sign up for these plans won’t be able to use them. Here’s why:
Women have higher average health costs than men. So, before the ACA, individual market insurers charged women higher premiums, a practice known as gender rating.
Essentially, being a woman was a pre-existing condition. If the ACA is overturned, gender rating could come back.
NEW: With passage of the ARPA, 1 in 2 uninsured people can get FREE ($0 premium) health coverage. And most of the people eligible for $0 premiums would also have very low (or no) out-of-pocket costs, too. is open for signups now
New: Will insurers shift more costs to unvaccinated people? They already are, in effect. Insurers used to voluntarily waive deductibles for COVID hospitalizations, but most have stopped. (Vaccines prevent the vast majority of COVID hospitalizations).
Good news: In the next month, everyone who wants a vaccine will have gotten one.
Bad news: In the next month, everyone who wants a vaccine will have gotten one.
New: We estimate that in 2-4 weeks it's likely everyone who wants to get vaccinated will have gotten a first dose.
Then, our challenge will be getting more people to want to get vaccinated and making access equitable.
w/
@jenkatesdc
@joshmich
8/🧵 Note: The above tweet is the seventh in a thread (“7/🧵”) so, folks might want to scroll up and read the other six tweets above it before saying it lacks context.
If you’d like to see the CDC data yourself, you can find it here:
Think insurance company profits are to blame for Americans’ high health costs? Think again.
Sure, insurers make big profits, but you really need to look no farther than your local hospital
The US spends 2x as much per person on health compared to other countries. National focus of this high spending is often on Rx drugs and administrative costs.
But
@cynthiaccox
and I find payments to hospitals and providers really drive high spending.
I tried and failed to get a COVID vaccine yesterday.
None of my HMO's in-network pharmacies have the booster in stock yet. So, I tried to go to an out-of-network pharmacy.
I knew this might mean paying $200. I'm going to be traveling next week, so I was willing to pay, but...