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Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Profile
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)

@businesscycle

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Cycle risk is investment risk. We partner with clients to anticipate turning points before their competition. ⬇ Find out about working with ECRI. ⬇

New York
https://t.co/Tc8zKYi2Eb
Joined February 2011
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 days
Understanding inflation cycles is crucial.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
In the lead-up to recessions, a soft landing often looks to be in play until suddenly, it isn't.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
WH saying no recession & Sec Yellen saying it’s a “transition” reminds us of Carter admin economist Alfred Kahn who, when forbidden to mention “recession,” used the word “banana” instead. Banana growers protested, so he switched to “kumquat.” What's the fruit for recession today?
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
Fastest Job Loss Ever. We’ve already lost more than double the percentage of jobs lost in 2008-10, and nearly half the percentage lost in 1929-33.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
This recession could end up being among the shortest on record. While hard to believe, this is because – after economic activity has plunged so deeply – even a slow, partial opening up of the economy could begin to lift economic activity off those extreme lows.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Reality check on what's happening outside your window. Here’s a picture of the key coincident data that define the economic cycle.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
This recession will be extremely deep, very broad, but relatively brief. Here's why:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth drops further.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 months
Hours worked have dropped to levels last seen in the depths of the Covid crisis. #Jobs #JobsReport
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth falls to a 106-week low.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth falls.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
A recession’s severity is measured by its depth, diffusion and duration. Here’s why we believe that this recession will be extremely deep, very broad, but relatively brief.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate dropped to a 91-week low.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
8 months
This is the third straight quarter of negative yoy GDI growth. This has never happened away from recession. #GDI is often overlooked because it’s released one month later, but is just as valid as #GDP . More here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
7 years
Profits growth slows with #economy . See full interview. #ECRI
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to 112-week low.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Oops! June 2022 FedEx: "we're not planning right now in our current forecast for a recession" ECRI: "A global recession now looms large"
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
You can force a recession, but you can't force a recovery.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
26 days
Solid headline jobs growth. But the household survey shows yoy full-time jobs growth falling to a 3-year low, while part-time jobs growth soars to a 2¾-year high. #Jobs #JobsReport
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
@zerohedge
@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
WH saying no recession & Sec Yellen saying it’s a “transition” reminds us of Carter admin economist Alfred Kahn who, when forbidden to mention “recession,” used the word “banana” instead. Banana growers protested, so he switched to “kumquat.” What's the fruit for recession today?
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate dropped to a 95-week low.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
Recession risk is determined not by when the Fed stops rate hikes, but by when it starts a rate cut cycle. Details here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
It's getting harder to dismiss the plunge in semiconductor demand, which we flagged back in March, in the context of our earlier global industrial slowdown forecast. That downturn isn’t over. I’ll be discussing our outlook next week at SIC 2019:
@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
The canary in the semiconductor-chip fab has keeled over. Related #ECRI leading index and interview here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
3 months
Labor hoarding --> more workers, but working fewest hours since depths of Covid crisis. #Jobs #JobsReport
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
3 years
Companies are routinely blindsided by cyclical changes in the direction of growth that aren’t really Black Swan events. We have a different perspective. Watch our full @RealVision interview here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Our latest op-ed.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Remember when people were proclaiming "the death of macro?" We now know how that worked out. Bottom line, post-GFC, we've seen 10%+ declines in S&P only during growth rate cycle downturns. We called the current one last year -- and it's not over.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
The canary in the semiconductor-chip fab has keeled over. Related #ECRI leading index and interview here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
Private nonfarm payroll growth (yoy) has plunged to an 8½ year low, in line with our growth rate cycle downturn call.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Last week’s sub-50 services PMI “shocker” sealed the deal on recession for most. ECRI clients saw this sector-specific insight months ago – and it’s not over yet. “You skate to where the puck is going, not where it is.”
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
1/ “The policy mistake odds are pretty high … If you look back at recessions, they tend to happen in the vicinity of the Fed goofing up and oil prices being high. All these things are on our radar screen.”
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges lower.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
"ECRI relies on early warning signals that catch turning points long before they are evident to laymen. As they say in ice-hockey, you skate to where the puck is going, not where it is."
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Risk of US recession may soon kill off global inflation

The question is whether the Fed pursues seven rate rises this year or pulls back to navigate a soft landing

www.telegraph.co.uk
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Suddenly everyone’s a recession expert. But most don’t know what a recession is, let alone correctly predicted one. In sharp contrast, our decades-long real-time track record is unrivaled.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
Benchmark revisions show sharply slower jobs growth since 2018, in line with ECRI’s earlier cyclical slowdown call (benchmark revisions for past 10 months will be available in a year).
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
10 months
The next time someone confidently declares that we’re not in recession, it’s worth asking, “How do you know?” Stay informed:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
1 year
Our cyclical vantage point helps explain how there can be sizeable equity rallies even in the teeth of a recession. Learn more about these patterns:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
A good looking jobs report, as yoy growth in education & health jobs rose to a 38-month high. The more cyclical component of nonfarm jobs growth – excluding those jobs – remains in a clear downswing, virtually unchanged from October’s 99-month low.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
Growth in total hours worked has slowed to its weakest reading since 2010. This is consistent with ECRI's 2018 slowdown call. #Jobs
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
10 months
GDP gets all the attention, but GDI is at least as reliable. What many don’t know is that GDPplus – which includes both measures – can be a better recession indicator than either. Go beyond the headlines:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
Wage growth falling because growth in total pay -- which fuels consumer spending -- is falling faster than growth in total hours worked.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
PMIs have not bottomed yet. ECRI leading index of PMIs predicts cyclical turns in the ISM and Markit U.S. manufacturing PMIs. Read more:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
Clip from an interview earlier today.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
The trend is clear.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
This is a brutal recession. But in one respect it may not be as bad. Read more here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Both nonfarm and household job growth (yoy) is EASING. Down to seven- and six-month low, respectively.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI research cuts through the subjectivity about soft landings. Green dots = soft landings Red dots = hard landings Yellow dot = current cycle Get chart deck and hear our explanation on @MacroVoices podcast:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
Against the backdrop of the deepest recession in living memory, there’s widespread bafflement about the rally in equities. But there’s a perfectly rational explanation for the divergence. Bottom line, it makes perfect sense for stocks to have turned up in March.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
Private services jobs growth (yoy) clearly slowing since January. It hasn’t been this weak in the past 8 years, apart from August and a few months in 2017-18.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
8 months
While most think the labor market is solid, it is hollowing out in a recessionary manner. Take a look at these unmistakable indicators:👀 #Jobs #Recession
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate fell further.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
We beg to differ.
@WSJmarkets
WSJ Markets
@WSJmarkets
2 years
You can’t predict when bear markets will end. So don’t try.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
Oblivious of the economy’s current cyclical resilience, the Fed cut rates today, depleting the precious ammo it will need when recession truly threatens. Watch and read more here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
Discussing the Fed, Dudley and recession risk
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
3 years
The global industrial slowdown is beginning to bite.
@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
3 years
Surprised by copper and oil moves? You need not be. Our recent webinar shows how our clients build conviction to act preemptively. Watch here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate dropped to an 81-week low.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreased.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Another example of how we’re translating our cycle research into actionable insights. This is not over. #StockMarket
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
3 years
Our work shows that if you want to manage equity market risk, it’s important to understand that major corrections are linked to growth rate cycle downturns in the economy. Sharing the details here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
Semiconductor rally at risk as demand “collapses,” cycle expert Lakshman Achuthan warns
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
De-globalization has been happening for much of this decade, as its roots run much deeper than the trade war. So, while a resolution to trade disputes would be welcome, de-globalization will continue. #G20
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
A Solid Uptick: In two months we lost more than double the percentage of jobs lost in 2008-10, and nearly half the percentage lost in 1929-33 – before regaining more than one in nine of those lost jobs.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
Longer term chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index to help put recent moves in context. Index is freely available for download here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
1 year
The soft-landing/no-landing crowd misunderstands how recessions work. Here's what you need to know: #BusinessCycle #ECRI
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
6 years
After years of flooding the global economy with liquidity, the #Fed is leading a global QE pullback, even with global growth in a cyclical slowdown. #ECRI
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
2/ “I think the sooner the market acknowledges this slowdown is more than Omicron, the better. The longer that fantasy persists, the riskier it gets.” More in Feb 4 @GrantsPub Interest Rate Observer
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls to a fresh 82-week low.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth decreased to -2.6%, a 139-week low. #economy
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
3 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edged up.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate dropped. Our updated public outlook here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Today’s update shows Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth falling again. The WLI helps confirm earlier moves in our longer leading indexes. Watch ECRI's recent public comments: #BusinessCycle #ECRI
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
1 year
It's easy to get caught up in bullish takes and head fakes, but this chart shows an undeniable pattern around recessions. What do the 1973-75, 1980, 2001, and 2007-09 recessions all have in common? More here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
Still short of Great-Recession lows, the Covid recession jobs recovery is now slowing.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
8 months
A key piece of the puzzle is the job market. Though most think it’s solid, our data show it hollowing out cyclically.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Today’s update of ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index shows its growth rate dropping to a 122-week low. Watch our latest public comments: #businesscycle #ECRI
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
3 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate dropped. Read more here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Two straight down quarters of GDP are neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for recession. That said, over the last 75 years a recession has always occurred when this has happened. Details here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 months
Needs vs. wants: Private non-farm job growth ex education & health is only 51K, of which 33K or so comes from auto strikes ending. See the choices being made: #Jobs #Employment
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls again. More on our public outlook here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Risk assets can’t escape economic cycles. Crypto is no exception.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Non-farm payroll employment has just surpassed its pre-Covid high.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
It's surprising how many people didn't see this morning's GDP print coming.
@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Reality check on what's happening outside your window. Here’s a picture of the key coincident data that define the economic cycle.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
6 years
Clip from earlier today. U.S. slowdown is now a fact, not a forecast.
U.S. Not as Resilient as Headlines Suggest, Says Ecri's Achuthan

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder and chief operations officer at Ecri, discusses the U.S. equity market and what it says about the economy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)

www.bloomberg.com
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
2/ Fortunately, free of the models used by the 400 PhD economists employed by the Fed, we do have the necessary foresight. Our research prompted us to conclude 𝘢 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘢𝘨𝘰 that “U.S. inflation pressures are now in an unambiguous cyclical upswing.”
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
Manufacturing PMI misses again. ECRI’s leading index of U.S. PMIs – which predicts its cyclical turns – foresaw the decline.
@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
PMIs have not bottomed yet. ECRI leading index of PMIs predicts cyclical turns in the ISM and Markit U.S. manufacturing PMIs. Read more:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
Op-ed: Don't blame the global slowdown on the trade war.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Despite a strong jobs report, both non-farm and household job growth (yoy) continue to ease.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 years
Longer term chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index to help put current drop in context. Index is freely available for download here:
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
Downturn in consumer spending growth fits with jobs growth slowing.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
4 months
The Fed and Wall Street project future inflation by extrapolating recent trends. While effective at times, this approach overlooks the fact that inflation is cyclical. Explore ECRInsights: #Inflation #Fed
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate dropped.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
5 years
ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth slips to -3.0%, a 140-week low. #economy
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
Rough ISM services print, and Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP estimate now at 0.0%. If this is the long-awaited post-Covid "bounce," the Fed is in more trouble than they think.
@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
3 years
Yes, supply chain constraints and the delta variant are problems, but most are missing the forest for the trees.
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@businesscycle
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
@businesscycle
2 years
The Fed has picked its poison by tightening into this ongoing US growth rate cycle downturn. Listen/download the deck for our current public outlook, a recession history lesson, and a classic ECRI chart on market corrections and GRC downturns.
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