Bespoke @bespokeinvest Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 months

A little history lesson in a chart. Green=Bull Markets 🐂 Red=Bear Markets 🐻

18

89

382

Last Seen Profiles

@JaniHollywood

@SWAGGA_Meta

@tc_educator

@phaugneland

@Raza9791

@EDuerrwaechter

@aspcorthals

@BonnieC247

@EdvaldoNogueira

@Reekayy

@sur_viv4l

@alignpodcast

@doublesp33k

@brokeoshi

@AdamHoge

@itsniya2uu

@nova_fcsh

@blockchainox

@ALASUtah

@CommonLit

@ToniLL22

@chamath

@pelelelamebotas

@chainedfag

@MrLustFn

@joaohaim

@ajito_ism

@QadsiahWFC

@carolinespencer

@aleks_shamis

@Alagpro

@cebongdeuls

@JaisinghValmiki

@Fastoolie

@OmbaToh2019

@Nick_Davidov

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Here’s a table of Nasdaq bear markets (20%+ declines with no 20%+ rallies in between). This bear is at -24% and 168 days long. Notice anything?

138

463

2K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

7 years

Nordstrom had its best day of the year today (+4.09%). $JWN

24

636

2K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

The S&P 500 has never declined on a day when jobless claims were a million or more.

45

255

2K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 months

$7.29 for one McDonald’s Egg McMuffin. What has the world come to?? These were 2 for $2 pretty recently.

844

313

2K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

5 months

S&P 500 close on 11/30/23: 4,567.80 S&P 500 close on 11/30/21: 4,567.00

60

291

1K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

CPI and PPI have fallen faster than they went up.

73

323

1K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

5 months

Here's a great stat for you: The small-cap Russell 2,000 made a new 52-week high today after hitting a 52-week low just 48 days ago. That's the shortest turnaround time in the index's history to go from 52-week low to 52-week high dating back to the 1970s! $IWM #markets

53

263

1K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Would you call the largest destruction of wealth in modern market history a "soft landing"?

124

319

1K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Crude oil is up 20% in the last week but the national average price of gas at the pump is down 1%. This calls for an investigation.

57

136

1K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

You don't even want to know the two other times $QQQ gapped down 3% and finished the day up over 3%.

61

136

1K

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

It's official. A new bull market is confirmed. The S&P 500 is now up 20% from its 10/12/22 closing low. The prior bear market saw the index fall 25.4% over 282 days. Read more at .

63

262

938

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 years

Good explanation on today's trading halts by Robinhood and others in tonight's Closer.

49

252

895

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

First time in over 20 years that the Nasdaq was up 1%+ intraday and finished down more than 1% on back to back days.

22

172

830

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

Crazy stat -- all of this year's decline for $SPY has come after hours (buy the close, sell the next open). If you only owned intraday (buy the open, sell the close), you'd be up 9.3% YTD.

27

241

817

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

First time the Dow has reversed a 1,000+ point drop to close higher on the day.

21

146

795

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

6 years

The number of users on Coinbase now exceeds the number of brokerage accounts at Charles Schwab. $SCHW

27

508

758

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

Salesforce notifying staff of job cuts on the same day its stock is having the best day since its IPO is 2020 in a nutshell.

31

194

758

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

The S&P closed 2+ standard deviations above its 50-DMA for 5 straight days recently. Prior times it reached these levels since 2022 ended up being short-term peaks. Read more:

29

178

738

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

In the span of three hours today, S&P 500 futures have had a 3.9% decline and a 3.9% rally.

51

111

722

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

At 115 days, the Nasdaq is 3 days away from being in its longest correction since the Financial Crisis. We bottomed right around this point during the 23.6% drop in Q4 2018.

16

214

707

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

2022 - the worst start to a year on record for the Nasdaq. YTD thru April: 2022: -19.8% 1973: -19.4% 2001: -14.3% 2002: -13.4% 2005: -11.7% 1984: -11.2%

30

173

688

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 years

Apple's new $90 billion buyback authorization is larger than 400 of the S&P 500's components.

16

142

677

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 months

META was an $88 stock at its low in November 2022. It's up $85 today.

26

82

693

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

The S&P 500 has not been this overbought since early 2017. Read more in tonight's Closer:

31

135

670

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

The S&P 500 fell 12% over 10 days from June 7th through June 17th. These type of declines over such a short period of time are of course rare, and it did a number on market internals. Here's a closer look...

4

86

665

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 months

The last time the Nasdaq 100 made a new all-time high on a day it gained 3%+? 3/22/2000

55

128

670

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Amazon $AMZN is now back to pre-COVID levels.

29

118

648

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

Wow.

32

214

588

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

7 months

Last four Septembers for the S&P: 2020: -3.92% 2021: -4.76% 2022: -9.34% 2023: -5.19% (thru 9/26) Last three Q4s: 2020: +11.69% 2021: +10.65% 2022: +7.08% 2023: ?

33

143

628

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 months

As of January 19th, NVIDIA $NVDA and Microsoft $MSFT had accounted for about 75% of the S&P 500's gain this year, while the 20 largest stocks in the index accounted for 110% of the index's upside move. The remaining ~480 stocks were acting as a drag.

23

196

601

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Predictions are hard, even for the Fed.

23

172

587

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

The two other dates were 4/27/00 and 5/4/01

29

37

581

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

28 days

Costco is selling 1-ounce gold bars today for $2,359.99. Gold is currently trading at $2,342.70. If you have a Costco Visa and an Executive membership, you get a total of 4% cash back for all Costco purchases. On a net basis, that's a 3% discount to the spot price.

35

75

574

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

5 months

A true legend. “Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day.” - Charlie Munger

8

132

557

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

How many times does a report have to come in better than expected before you adjust your models?

35

135

540

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

NVIDIA’s $NVDA price to sales ratio recently eclipsed 40. Is that sustainable? Here’s a look at mega-cap P/S ratios.

52

120

542

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

In case you were wondering, since at least 1984, the S&P 500 has never erased 2%+ declines and finished higher two days in a row.

26

94

535

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

Berkshire's stake in Apple now represents 21% of its entire market cap.

19

100

517

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

It took Tesla $TSLA 2,407 trading days to reach a $100 billion market cap versus just 3 trading days for Rivian $RIVN.

40

99

516

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

At -23.7%, this is the 3rd worst two-week (10 trading day) drop for the S&P 500 Energy sector over the last 40+ years. The only two-week stretches that saw bigger drops for the Energy sector came in October 2008 and March 2020...

16

158

518

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 years

Ten years ago, someone paid 10,000 bitcoin for two Papa John's pizzas. Today, those same bitcoins would be enough to buy 10% of the entire company. $PZZA

13

102

503

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Roughly half of Nasdaq stocks have been cut in half and the average stock is down 46.5% from its 52-wk high.

24

165

508

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 months

Here's a stat for you... It's been 309 trading days since ChatGPT was released on 11/30/22 and the Nasdaq is up 46.07%. In the 309 trading days after Netscape (the first web browser) was released in December 1994, the Nasdaq was up 45.9%. It doesn't get much closer than that.

30

138

506

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Today's was just the 5th time in $SPY's history (since '93) that it closed higher by at least 2% after opening down at least 2%. SPY fell the next day 3 of 4 times, but it was up over the next week and month all 4 times.

15

149

504

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

S&P 500 has only been down 10% in a week four other times since WWII; October 1987, April 2000, September 2001, and October 2008.

16

317

490

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

The Tech sector heads into the weekend trading 3.23 standard deviations above its 50-DMA, its most overbought reading since January 2004!

26

152

497

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

Tesla $TSLA gains look insane. Until you compare them to Dell $DELL.

30

117

485

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

Yesterday Amazon $AMZN closed at $83.04, which means it's now 79 cents BELOW its COVID Crash low of $83.83 made on 3/12/20. Not only have all of AMZN's post-pandemic gains been erased, but it's now trading below its lowest close made during the COVID Crash.

31

96

493

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

The combined market cap of Apple and Microsoft is now 54% greater than the ENTIRE Russell 2000.

12

152

482

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

The drop in existing home sales is unbelievable.

23

139

483

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

Apple and Microsoft account for 39% of the S&P’s gain so far in 2023. Add in NVIDIA and Meta and it’s 60%! $AAPL $MSFT $NVDA $META

24

131

474

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 years

Six straight days of last hour declines for the S&P 500.

17

56

447

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 months

The S&P has now gone more than 70 trading days without a 2% pullback.

18

121

461

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

A 1%+ drop for the Nasdaq today would make it four 1%+ drops in a row. Last time this happened was late December 2018, and before that, October 2008.

12

119

460

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

5 years

S&P 500 close on 8/14/19: 2,840.60 S&P 500 close on 8/14/18: 2,839.96

24

180

444

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

The most volatile month EVER.

3

231

445

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

This 25.4% YTD drop is easily the worst start to a year on record for the Nasdaq. Worst Nasdaq Composite YTD moves through 88 trading days: 2022: -25.4% 1973: -17.2% 2002: -13.0% 2001: -11.0%

13

125

445

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

If the 100 smallest stocks in the S&P 500 doubled from here, the impact on the index would be a gain of just under 2.5%.

13

65

436

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Trends happen fast. Energy now down more from its 52-week high than Technology. Unbelievable.

12

120

436

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

6 months

The S&P 500 has gone 467 trading days without making a new all-time high. After the Great Depression it went more than 6,000…

23

101

439

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

The S&P is down 17% YTD, but if you only owned the market on days when the FOMC hiked rates, you'd be looking at a YTD gain of 6.8%. If you avoided the market on those 3 days and were long the rest of the year, you’d be down 23%. Nobody ever said the market had to make sense!

19

113

429

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

The S&P 500 fell 19.4% in 2022, coming just shy of the -20% mark that only six other years since 1928 have seen. Here's a look at every annual price change for the S&P since 1928 grouped into 10 percentage point intervals. Read more in this week's BR:

9

127

435

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

6 months

This is an amazing snapshot showing how different today’s market is from ten years ago. Back then, no stock’s market cap had a weight of more than 2.81% in the S&P 500. Take a look and let us know what else you see.

36

119

432

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Massive declines across the most highly valued stocks has left the Nasdaq Composite's price to sales ratio well below its pre-COVID high and back to the range it was in for much of 2018 and 2019. Pretty noteworthy.

14

106

428

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 months

We’ve now gone 86 trading days without even a 2% pullback for the S&P.

23

97

422

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 months

Super Micro $SMCI had $7.1 billion in sales in 2023. Current estimates are for $19.5 billion in 2025, which gives it a price to sales ratio of roughly 2.25x. NVIDIA's $NVDA 2025 price to sales estimate is 19.2x.

29

66

425

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

In $SPY's history, it has only opened down 2%+ and closed up 2%+ four times. Today would make it 5, but a lot of day left. Prior days on the chart below:

22

98

415

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

The average Nasdaq Composite stock is 39% below its 52-week high even though the index is just 3.6% below its 52-week high.

7

134

412

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

This chart is bonkers. Non Farm Payrolls has now exceeded expectations for a record 13 straight months.

35

107

414

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

$188,049,900,000 - Tesla's increase in market cap since announcing its 5-1 split. $TSLA

12

74

405

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 months

S&P 500 on 1/5/22 - 4,700 S&P 500 on 1/5/24 - 4,697 The most precious commodity of all is time, and the last two years in the market have been a complete waste of it.

72

83

394

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 years

Initial reaction to debates in betting markets from @maximlott

18

173

380

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

8 months

The S&P just hit its most oversold level of the year at more than two standard deviations below its 50-DMA. All but three sectors are oversold as well. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary are the most extended to the downside. 🤮

24

105

397

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Here's how YoY CPI would look going forward with a constant 0.1% MoM print like today's headline reading.

9

118

393

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

Lithium prices are in a near-70% drawdown after a 1,300% rally.

12

98

384

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 years

The market cap of "Amazon's Rumored Stock Split" ($32 billion) is larger than nearly half of all S&P 500 companies.

8

69

370

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 years

Stocks in the Russell 2000 are down an average of 22.3% from their 52-week highs, and nearly 200 are down over 50%.

18

73

368

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

Worst first week of December (-4.4%) for the Nasdaq since 1975.

13

97

377

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

Woah. Longest streak of deceleration in y/y CPI since 1921. #Inflation

20

102

374

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

9 months

Here's one way to think about investing in equities and "buy and hold." Casinos make money by making sure bettors eventually lose more often than they win. The stock market is the opposite. The longer you play, the better your odds. Historically, the odds of the S&P 500 being…

14

59

360

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

Does this look like an earnings apocalypse? Of roughly 60 earnings results this morning: EPS beat rate: 77% Sales beat rate: 73% Companies raising guidance: 5 Companies lowering guidance: 2

66

77

368

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

With all the hawkish Fed comments out there, remember that just a year ago, half of them weren't expecting any hikes this year and one was expecting rates to stay at zero in 2023.

13

112

364

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

After a 50% drawdown, FANG+ is now just 7.8% from its all-time high. Read more:

22

75

364

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

7 months

SPY has made lower lows on 33 of the last 50 trading days. That's tied for the most in the ETF's history.

15

90

366

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

For the first time since April, the S&P 500 closed over 1% above its 200-DMA and the more than year long downtrend has finally been broken. Read more in tonight's Closer:

35

85

360

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 months

The last two times the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high but then dropped for the next four days weren't bullish for the market at all. BUT...

15

54

356

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

5 years

If you're thinking about getting out of equities now, here's a look at the S&P's performance after 10%+ down quarters since WW2:

19

190

352

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

The market is now projecting a Fed Funds rate of 4.10% by the July meeting, or just under 50 bps of cuts from current levels. This was at 5.66% last Wednesday. That's 150 basis points of looser policy in less than a week.

25

79

360

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

Chat GPT has spoken.

18

72

352

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

Facebook is down 37% since announcing its name change last October.

19

46

342

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

6 months

Here’s a look at the four 10%+ corrections we’ve had in the last two years. Just registered #4 last week. How deep will this one end up being?

13

95

354

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 months

The S&P has been up in 16 of the last 18 weeks. That hasn’t happened in more than 50 years! Occurrences since 1950: June 1957 August 1958 March 1964 March 1971 March 2024

11

98

351

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

Apple $AAPL is back to being bigger than all ~2,000 small-caps in the Russell 2,000. The last time it happened, it didn’t last long.

20

105

351

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

2/24/22: Russia Invades Ukraine How it started... How it ended... S&P -2.6% +1.5% Oil +9.2% +0.9% Gold +3.5% -0.9% Bitcoin -8.9% +1.8%

16

125

346

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

4 months

The yield curve has now been inverted for a record number of days in a row, yet on average, recessions have begun 589 days after the curve first inverts, so we’re not even close to being out of the woods yet. Have a look:

15

95

347

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

Here’s a final look at 2022 total returns for various ETFs across asset classes. 30%+ Decliners: Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Consumer Discretionary $XLY Comm. Services $XLC 20+ Yr Treasuries $TLT

6

108

344

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

3 years

Biggest miss relative to expectations in Non Farm Payrolls since at least 1998.

22

120

334

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

2 years

The Utilities sector is now down 20.5% over the last month. March 2020, October 2008, late 2002, and the 1930s are the only other periods that saw one-month crashes of 20%+.

18

122

342

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

Apple $AAPL and Amazon $AMZN were the biggest market cap losers in 2022, with each losing more than $830 billion in cap. Staggering numbers. $830 billion is more than 10 PayPals, 8 Intels, or 5 Disneys.

16

95

339