What a great publication day for
#PowerAndProgress
for me and
@DAcemogluMIT
Thanks to everyone for your support — here's a quick message from us and don't forget you can, for the first time, purchase the book here:
New edition has arrived!
The Spanish translation of my book with
@DAcemogluMIT
, Power and Progress (Poder y Progreso), is available to the world public next Wednesday, October 11, 2023, from
@EdicionesDeusto
.
Get your copy here:
Two coal ships have just arrived at anchor outside Rostock and Wilhelmshaven in Germany, carrying a total of 160,000 tonnes of coal, worth around EUR 30 mln at today's prices, from Russia.
Please join me in welcoming my co-author of
#PowerAndProgress
, Daron
@DAcemogluMIT
to Twitter.
This is Daron’s new Twitter account and if you’re interested in the themes we address in Power and Progress, you’re going to want to follow him.
Hello Twitter 👋
This is my new account, launched to coincide with mine and
@baselinescene
's new book
#PowerAndProgress
.
This is the beginning of an intellectual journey and I look forward to connecting with many of you on the broader issues at play.
Why are the Dutch importing so much MORE Russian oil (average per day) than before February 24th? This is not about keeping their economy going. Someone is making a lot of money out of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine? Who? And why isn’t there a Bloody Windfall Profits Tax for them?
Calling all Italians on Twitter: Please forward this to your elected representatives. Why is Italy still buying seaborne oil from Russia? You can buy it from many other countries, none of which are currently killing Ukrainians. Please, please really
#StandWithUkraine
on this
Russia is pulling in an extra $50-100m PER DAY for oil, due to the chaotic destruction Putin has created. Only a boycott of Russian oil can change this. Stop paying for Putin’s war
Here's the problem with sanctions. Russia's current account surplus in January - because Putin's war drove oil and gas prices up - is bigger than ever (red). That's a ton of hard currency inflow that doesn't get touched by sanctions. Only a boycott of Russian energy fixes that...
Amazing news:
1. Swedish dock workers refused to unload the Sunny Liger.
2. Two days later Amsterdam workers also refused to unload it !!! (See below in the thread the source of the story at
@nrc
)
Let no more Russian ships unload their dirty cargo in any European port!
Today only, you can read my new book with
@DAcemogluMIT
, Power and Progress, for $3.99.
Wherever you get your American edition e-books. That's 80% off, for anyone keeping track.
Thank you
@public_affairs
for this exciting promotion!
Opinion | A Basic Income for Ukrainians, Paid for with Frozen Russian Assets - with Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to the president of Ukraine: millions of refugees are going to need cash assistance soon; use seized foreign exchange reserves/crony capital
China is supporting Putin’s war on Ukraine by continuing to pay high prices for Russian crude. Either China should negotiate much lower prices for Russian oil (<$10 per barrel) or the U.S. and Europe should take further action in terms of sanctions
It looks like "Made in China" should increasingly read "Made in China with Russian Energy." China's imports from Russia in May 2022 were double what they were in May 2021 and far above previous years (red). Our trade links with China are increasingly a go-between for Putin...
There was too much self-congratulation in the West yesterday/Monday. The SWIFT and other financial sanctions so far will not stop Putin. Watch the ruble-dollar exchange rate. Stop paying for Russian gas
Ruble has stabilized, even as Russia's army pours into Ukraine. Coming days may see a terrible escalation in violence, rising civilian casualties & graphic images. The West must urgently cut imports of Russian energy to deprive Putin of hard currency for his war. The time is now!
The Fed is today: senior staff trading stocks more actively than some professional investors. The Board of Governors needs to get serious about disallowing trades based on material non-public information. There is no credibility without ethical conduct
@CraigKennedy77
: brilliant analysis, . So Russia’s choice is now this: (1) pull out of Ukraine or (2) shut in oil fields, degrade production, and go back to where they were in 1991, without foreign investment/tech. Or perhaps they will do (2) and then (1)?
"In their new book, “Jump-Starting America" ... they lay out a bold program to boost federal spending on science and technology, focusing on regions where growth is lagging."
@Noahpinion
@RoKhanna
@jonathangruber1
Investing in science creates good jobs, and we believe there is untapped high-tech talent all around the US. Thank you for your encouragement and leadership!
Op-Ed: After Putin's war crimes, current sanctions are inadequate: all foreign assets of the Putin Regime should be forfeit - with the proceeds used to compensate Ukrainians and rebuild Ukraine
Heads up everyone - $76 million dollars worth of crude oil inbound to Rotterdam; due in 11am local tomorrow/March 25th. This is bloody oil, sold to finance Putin’s war machine. Don’t touch that cargo or refined products made from it, if you really
#StandWithUkraine
📢 Exciting news! The website for
@DAcemogluMIT
and my new book,
#PowerAndProgress
, is now live!
Join us on a journey to explore the intersection of technology and society.
Pre-order your copy today:
This is Russia. A massive $120 bn c/a surplus, driven by $240 bn in energy exports to the world. Sad truth is that nothing we've done so far cuts this massive flow of hard currency to Putin. As Russia's army pours into Ukraine, we're running out of time to do the right thing...
"In the boom decades post WWII, what drove US economic growth was a fruitful partnership between the government and the private sector in developing new technologies that grew the economy"
@jonathangruber1
in our talk with
@BloombergRadio
P&L yesterday
It was a pleasure to be at the
@mitclubny
earlier this week where I chatted to
@petercoy
about my new book
#PowerAndProgress
! We talked about tech and its impact on society and the banking industry.
Also great to spot copies of the book in the wild.
Why Germany? Why? You can buy seaborne oil from anywhere in the world, but you chose to buy Russian blood oil. How does this help end the invasion of Ukraine?
#StandWithUkraine
Washington Post reports: “Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant … is on fire”, due to Russian bombardment: see Post article at 8:27pm. This is beyond madness. Stop paying for Putin’s war, before he destroys everything and everyone.
This is an important moment for the direction of tech. In the absence of a market that promotes diverse ideas, a few technologists will decide our future.
@DAcemogluMIT
and I wrote this
@latimes
piece to explain why the OpenAI CEO struggle is about more than corporate politics.
In a new
@latimes
op-ed, Initiative Co-Directors
@DAcemogluMIT
and
@baselinescene
warn that OpenAI's recent power struggle signals that the future of AI is now firmly controlled by people focused on speed and profits, at the expense of all else.
“Roman Abramovich’s funds for war victims will not only go to Ukrainians”; time for the British government to step in. Sounds like Abramovich is working on repatriation of funds through the back door. Stop him paying for Putin’s war
The EU oil embargo is coming. Will it be well-designed, so that Russian oil does not just flow to Asia instead? If not, this will be clear within one week and there will be a do-over. If that does not work, do it again until you really
#BoycottRussianOil
The German word for gaslighting is "Nebelkerzen," which literally translates as "fog candles." That's what left-wing German academics did in the debate over an energy embargo: all their points are wrong on substance and, when that became clear, they switched to personal attacks.
Sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are not degrading Russian energy production capacity or putting enough pressure on Russian financial markets.
This shows that financial sanctions can have an effect this week BUT the EU needs to stop paying for gas immediately + all Russian central bank assets everywhere must be frozen (
@SecYellen
is close, but not there yet). Nothing else will be fast enough to help Ukraine
The tightening in Russia's financial conditions is unprecedented. 12-month rate differential priced into currency forwards now stands at 42%. This far exceeds anything after the 2014 Crimea annexation and is twice as harsh as the tightening in 2008. Hugely recessionary...
IEA finds Russia has shut in 1m barrels/day due to fall in domestic consumption. But Putin’s revenue from oil and petroleum products holding steady around $20bn per month. This is his primary means of financing and continuing the war
#StandWithUkraine
New embargoes on Russian oil supplies would speed up the redirection of trade flows & force Russian companies to shut in more wells.
But rising output elsewhere & slower demand growth is set to fend off an acute supply deficit in the near term.
More ⬇️
Congratulations to
@DAcemogluMIT
for the well-deserved recognition.
Thank you also to
@prospect_uk
for recognizing our book Power and Progress as one of their top 10 books on Ideas for 2023.
It is an honor to be nominated as one of
@prospect_uk
's "Top Thinkers" for 2024, along with several well-respected respected colleagues in economics.
You may view the list and lend your support, if you wish, here:
Exactly right. Shut down Russian oil production. Start with a 45 day Sudden Stop of all lifting from Russian ports. Issue limited waivers for sanctions upon application. Do the paperwork right if you want to be allowed to carry and receive Russian oil and oil products
...on ban duration, 15% of 🇷🇺 well stock has higher flow rates that can be throttled back, providing some short-term, limited swing capacity (cf. 5/2020 OPEC+ cut). So keeping ban's time horizon open-ended will enhance Western bargaining leverage. End
"Johnson and Gruber believe the U.S. has a number of cities where the presence of universities combined with industrial know-how could produce more technology-based growth."
A key area for research funding. Hard to imagine the private sector turning the tide on drug resistance on its own, but if public investments were to jumpstart work on whole new categories of treatment, millions of lives could be saved.
Tuesday update: Russia firing missiles at Kharkiv, moving on Kyiv, etc; the West sending $650 million to Russia TODAY for energy, via
@jonsindreu
@WSJ
. Stop paying for Russian gas
This is country composition of oil tankers leaving Russia on a weekly basis so far in 2022. Our live tracking of tanker traffic suggests the share of Greek tankers ROSE from 39% of total tanker traffic before the war to 52% since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. With
@JonathanPingle
My colleagues
@DAcemogluMIT
,
@davidautor
, and I have released a new policy memo that offers an answer to an important question — and a plan to get there:
Can We Have Pro-Worker AI?
Here is a link to the memo and summary, as well as a thread of the key takeaways:
Today,
@MITshapingwork
Co-Directors
@DAcemogluMIT
,
@davidautor
, and
@baselinescene
released a policy memo on reshaping AI development: "Can We Have Pro-Worker AI? Choosing a path of machines in service of minds." Key takeaways below 🧵
Read the memo:
My co-author
@DAcemogluMIT
and I are pleased to announce the German publication of our new book Power and Progress, from
@Campusverlag
.
Get it here and wherever books are sold:
@RoKhanna
“We need to have a 21st century where we understand that we’re going through a technology revolution, lead in these new technologies, and empower communities to have those new jobs.”
Well said
@gpapak
. Other tanker fleets (eg., Denmark) stopped carrying Russian oil immediately after the invasion. Greek tanker owners are making a lot more money now than before February 24th: 5-10x in the Black Sea per voyage
From Politico: "Greece is also holding out, diplomats said, as it doesn’t want to stop making money from shipping Russian oil to other countries with its fleet of tankers"
Let’s be clear: the country’s interests and those of tankers’ owners are not & should not be the same thing
@SheilaBair
flagged the key weakness of stress tests (and broader Fed supervisory thinking), 9 months+ ago. Key question for Congress this week: who at the Fed vetoed the high interest rate scenario?
Not confident about the stress tests. Here is a piece I wrote about their weaknesses. Importantly, the Fed is not stressing the scenario everyone is worried about: a recession where inflation persists and interest rates elevated.
@baselinescene
NEWS:
@DAcemogluMIT
& I have penned a piece for
@latimes
on the
#WritersStrike
and the emerging threat of
#AI
to the profession.
We discuss how technological advances – especially AI – could threaten our jobs and society at large.
It is easy to see who is really willing to
#StandUpForUkraine
: eg, question to Netherlands, why are you importing so much MORE Russian oil after the invasion - March imports of Russian crude nearly 2x February (barrels per day, monthly average)? Which Dutch voters support this?
Great article in
@EconUS
citing work by
@OlegUstenko
&
@baselinescene
who track tanker traffic shipping oil out of Russia to the rest of the world. In our own data, we see little sign that tanker traffic out of Russia has slowed.
G7 Leaders’ Statement: “we will take measures to prohibit or otherwise prevent the provision of key services on which Russia depends. This will reinforce Russia’s isolation across all sectors of its economy.” Does this include EU/US oil tankers etc?
📰
@nytimes
op-ed alert! The power of
#AI
in
#BigTech
is creating a duopoly between Microsoft and Google.
As we navigate the future, it's crucial to ensure fair competition, innovation, and consumer choice when it comes to
#AI
.
The website for
@MITShapingWork
that I co-direct with
@DAcemogluMIT
and
@davidautor
is officially launched. Read new research on the future of work, see upcoming events, access news articles, podcasts, and videos, and find out how you can work with us:
There's something deeply distressing about Russian gas flowing through pipelines running the length of Ukraine (blue), so the rest of Europe isn't cold, even as Ukraine hunkers down in dank basements, trying to survive another night. We're better than this! With
@BHilgenstockIIF
READ: “The book is about the choices we make with technology. That’s a very MIT type of theme.”
Thank you
@MIT
News for your piece on my and
@DAcemogluMIT
’s new book
#PowerAndProgress
.
The geography of the President's of Ukraine special speeches in the parliaments will expand to Africa and Asia
Zelenslkyy announced this in his evening speech on May 15. He also said that now the oil embargo is the priority in🇪🇺's response to🇷🇺aggression
Europe Can Stop Russia’s Aggression
@ProSyn
Need to add a tariff on the way to an embargo. Focus on squeezing Putin’s revenue from oil
#StandWithUkraine
Op-Ed: The West should stop financing Putin's war - Los Angeles Times, Russia’s “balance of payments” for February 28, 2022: received $500m from the West for oil&gas; and continued killing unarmed Ukrainian civilians. Stop paying Russia!
2. We need to provide people with money to support their families, get medicine, get food, and pay for rent. You don’t need a fancy degree to understand this. This is about SURVIVAL ECONOMICS. Help people survive this with as little damage to their health or lives.
Set up a fund to pay cash to Ukrainian refugees now - pay for this with frozen Central Bank of Russia assets + confiscated oligarchy wealth. Just remember this will not cover even a fraction of the tragic costs they have caused
“It could render tens of thousands of marginal wells uneconomic and compromise complex pressure management systems at the field level. This risk is well appreciated by Russian reservoir engineers, but less evident to Western policy makers.”
@RobinBrooksIIF
@kevinfeldman
For details on shutting-in, see pt 4 of . Robin is right, though it would take more than a week. Volumes of sanctioned oil far too large for more than a fraction to be smuggled. You'd need 30% of global VLCC fleet to get it all to Asia--can't hide that.
5/25 at 6 PM | In a time of rapidly-evolving technologies like AI, economist Simon Johnson (
@baselinescene
) reinterprets the economics and history of technological advances.
Get Tickets: