Founder EKOS Research. Adjunct Research Professor, Department of Sociology and Anthropology Carleton University . Views are personal not those of EKOS Research.
More to come . Overwhelming support for Ukraine and approval of Canadian response to date. Notably the only sources of Russian support are heavily concentrated in unvaccinated Canada . What connects both? Amongst other things --disinformation .
The more carefully I look at disinformation; the more I consult with international colleagues; the more I believe this is the most immediate and existential threat to democracy and the public interest. It is incredibly disturbing
I've received over 100 absolutely vile and threatening tweets/emails for calling out dangers of right wing authoritarian populism and PP's role in riding this malignant force. Not one comes from anyone I respect or care about or could have any impact on my reputation or business
Took me 16 minutes on hold to cancel my subscription to the Toronto Star. Guessing they are tied up with others doing the same .Individual on phone asked why and noted that he was hearing this a lot. Wished him a nice day and said I would re-subscribe if they got a new president
I have new polling that I will release later this week that shows most believe the 4th wave is not due to borders , or poor public health but overwhelmingly to the unvaccinated . Public patience with the vaccine refusers is utterly exhausted . Stay home or get vaxxed . The end.
I am finding this difficult to watch. We have been through two years of hell . Most have tried their best. To see this throng fouling our seat of government and its cherished symbols is just too much . I respect the right to protest but this is beyond the pale.
From our full poll to be released tomorrow. This relationship is astonishing. Disinformation index asks about 7 factual questions. 95% of most disinformed are voting CPC or PPC .
The best I can figure is if the Ottawa Police Force did not exist we would have seen absolutely no discernible difference in the impacts on the City (other than the nearly 5M wasted). Great value for money . Super job! We should have sent in the school patrol guards
I came into my office today . Woman sitting in lobby maskless. I asked her to put on her mask . She pointed to a yellow button saying mask exempt . I told her in no uncertain terms (polite euphemism) to get out of our building . Buh-Bye. My staff/clients deserve safety .
When did one third of our society think that anti vax , anti climate change , anti science, anti diversity was the shining path to the future? For the rational,humane majority this is a critical question.
Trying to be restrained. I have never seen such an odious and irrational display of abject idiocy in my country and my city. Ever. Abetted and funded by forces who are above the fray . For those thinking the sheer stupidity and vulgarity will doom this movement ,do not be so sure
The protesters are seeking to overturn a government and implement an agenda that flies in the face of science and reason. It also ignores public consensus and democratic choice. They have assaulted democracy and rule of law. Negotiate? What will that signal to future anarchists?
okay , I am going to level with you . I am genuinely frightened about the future of the country . Our elites will engage in sneering and denial . This anger will be exploited and grow. We are in deep trouble
I will be updating my consumer testing but ending the need for vax passports will probably dampen consumer demand for restaurants, concerts, theatre etc. This is very short sighted.For now, most consumers are vaxxed and don't want to share indoor spaces with the 10% who are not.
In a world rife with horrid surprises this announcement is a hugely positive surprise. We can now imagine a post-covid Canada which reflects the majority's desire to refashion a stronger, fairer, and more ambitious Canada.
You know who really does not like vaccine passports ? Those that haven't vaccinated . You know who does? Those who have and value human well being , economic recovery and science. There are a few exceptions--but not many . The human rights stuff is a smoke screen .
A Question --- If we have a national Emergencies Act , and we have a once in a lifetime crisis now shifting into a careening , flaming wreck , when would be a good time to invoke an Emergency Act? Inquiring minds want to know .
Although I deleted them shortly after sending them I sent some rude and intolerant tweets recently. I apologize. I am deeply concerned with the rise of right wing authoritarian populism but I expressed my concerns in a harsh and aggressive manner. I am sorry .
Before we defund CBC we might want to note it is the most trusted news source in Canada. This trust advantage is much higher if you are a member of the informed majority .
A non-scientific, possibly unrepresentative declaration . I love to eat out /I'm a moderately big spender. I will patronize any establishment which requires continued proof of vaccination . Major tippage! I will not even think of going into a place which welcomes the unvaxed .
Here is something I don't think I have ever seen . In summer last year 80%+ of ontarians and Albertans approved of their provincial governments' handling of the pandemic . Now 19 and 15% . That is unimaginably low . Biggest issue of last 80 years . Worst marks ever. Congrats .
I have just released clear empirical data showing PP supporters are dramatically more likely to be disinformed, mistrusful, exhibit authoritarian outlook, endorse freedom movement,deny climate change and so on. Effects are massive. Expected concerted attack but nada. Curious.
quick question . If tests are in short supply why are we squandering them for regular testing of antivax who want to work ? Allows them to not vax and deprives those needing real testing . Really stupid
We have entered a period of intense polarization . The poles are not balanced , although the noise levels on one side gives that appearance. About 80% are in the rational majority . The other 20% are disinformed , angry and dangerous . A quiet chat won't fix this .
We may be entering the worst phase of this horrid pandemic. And our governments have caved to the disinformed angry minority. Such a crass surrender. Russia and anarchists will be pleased. Buckle up. The worst is still ahead and we are mostly defenceless
The very idea that we are legitimating this assault on reason, democracy, and rule of law with some obsequious 'negotiation' fiction is utterly offensive and wrong-headed.
I have a theory as to why the NDP-LPC alliance has emerged at this unique historical moment and why it was a timely and necessary response to the rising threat of ordered populism. Back soon.
Ok . I was prepared to buy the well meaning but thick Premier thing . I am, full stop done. This is massive incompetence on a truly epic scale. The human costs of this are incalculable
CBC ran a heartbreaking story about a 19 year old woman who couldn't go to Jamaica because of the Vax passport. Get a safe effective Vax and protect yourself and those around you. Then go where you want. Or do more research on TikTok. Christ.
I am going to shut up for a while . I am too angry at this stage to be a positive force . In a crisis we need more light than heat and I am much too hot right now . Apologies ..
Still, confrontations and the need for de-escalation has regularly been required. Along with the safety issues, costs to businesses and social costs, the Ottawa Police continues to tally the financial costs of the policing costs which are estimated at more than $800,000 a day.
I have no idea why an idea of such critical importance should be a partisan issue . All sane Canadians know that vaccines are the path to normalcy . If we need a vaccine passport to close the deal so be it . If you are offside on this you do not deserve to govern . Period
In field with some new Ontario provincial numbers . My view that Ford was in good shape for at least a minority is shifting . This looks highly unpredictable right now and his approval numbers are not good at all . Stay tuned
Great . Here is the good news . About 99% will vaccinate . And here is the even better news, the force will have purged some of those least suited to be RCMP members .
After 12 years of never limiting anyone's access to my tweets I reluctantly restricted to those following. And to the thousand or so I blocked I don't care about hateful, libelous , antivax 'freedom 'types. I have never seen such a miasma of toxic sludge. Depressing and alarming
I have grown weary of being polite . I have grown weary of dishonesty and stupidity . I know that the vast majority of us have been both honest and careful. But my patience with the rest of you is pretty well utterly exhausted .
Not clear but it is extremely likely that ceasing Vax passports has caused booster take up to stall. There will be profound costs for this error which flies in the face of both public and expert opinion. If anything passports should have been extended to 3 doses/further 60 days
We have been tracking generalized anxiety. Hopelessness. Trouble sleeping. Depression, etc. Numbers are horrific. Worse, have been for 22 months. I am deeply concerned about what this means for the future.
I have a growing collection of disgusting and often threatening hate mail . It is disturbing and vile . All because I dare to advocate for vaccine passports .
@CBCKatie
@ChristyCeeCK
This is stretching beyond tolerance and fairness . I had to shut our offices on Friday and I am supposed to shut them again tomorrow.. For what? To pander to a bunch of bullies who are on some vain vanity mission that collides with the public interest? Get rid of them .
@safetodo
This is the tyranny of the moronic minority . I have experienced it firsthand . It is vile , wrong and totally contrary to the public interest . Will we continue to be cowed by the moronic minority? My business is committed to 100% vaccination of all staff .
Unbelievably , the more data/analysis that I look at , the more convinced that our our oh-so-advanced societies are going to suffer a longer and worse final outcome than those dealing with the 1918 pandemic .Hubris sucks and it is not science that is failing us it is anti-science
Here is a surprising linkage which shows the role of disinformation in sorting views of both vaccines and Russia. Agree Russia is committing war crimes --vaccinated 88% agree. Unvaccinated 35%. Why would unvaxxed by less than half as likely to disagree? Disinformation !
Enough is enough. No fly-zone now. Ukraine has all the courage and not enough weapons. We have all the weapons and not enough courage. Deal with Putin now or later. For Ukraine and us, now is the time. Enough.
Come on , for all the critics , and no one is perfect , on this Canada day do you really not pause and think , my God I am so glad we don't have the recklessly insane moron who is steering our American friends off a cliff?
What makes Canada special is not that Canadians know that this is the best country in the world – it’s that we know it could be. We know our work together is not yet done. Watch Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mrs. Sophie Grégoire Trudeau’s
#CanadaDay
remarks ⬇️
A 40 something friend had his AZ shot cancelled today .He's a well educated professional and capable of making an informed decision . Why was this taken out of his hands? We are infantilizing people who can weigh and make informed decisions. Hope he doesn't get sick while waiting
Here's a wild guess. Canada begins vaccine roll out early January , weeks behind front runners. We've negotiated agreements with the leaders / will be on par/ahead of allies by March + we don't have the 50% hesitancy rates in US ,nor burgeoning tsunami of infections. Stay strong
For anyone who thinks recent events are a blip and things are going to return to normal; they aren't . We're in the midst of a broad transformation. The forces underpinning this have been percolating for decades but the fuse has now been lit. We are headed for a different world
My understanding is that ALL federal political parties in Canada raised less since the last election than the convoy did in a week . If that doesn't get your spidey sense tingling it's broken . The US connections and links to recent political events in Canada is curious
Patriotic Texans donated to Canadian truckers’ worthy cause using GoFundMe. This BLM-backing company went woke, froze the funds, & failed to deliver Texans’ money. Today I assembled a team to investigate their potential fraud & deception. Texas donors will get Justice!
#GoFundMe
Serious question , when did it become a political issue as to whether we should follow science, save countless lives and get our economy surging again?
canada vaccinated at a miraculous rate. But in the past 2 months we have stagnated . A minority of us chose not to do so . They are the authors of the 4th wave ---period. So they can stay home or vaccinate . Guessing most will pick option 2 if choice is black and white .
Right wing authoritarian (ordered) populism is firmly rooted in Canada . We have been documenting this and flagging it as huge public policy issue for some time . Much of the commentariat has reacted with sneering or denial . This form of populism never turns out well---never .
Our polling showed a major shift to favouring more active government and taxing the wealthy. This was much stronger amongst under 40 voters where LPC were struggling. CPC can't go there . Could be a game changer.
Everyone is now getting Covid. Zero mitigation. Masking collapsed. Vaccines stalled. No distancing. So.. either the optimistic T-cell quasi herd immunity theory is right or the incrementally greater risk of lifetime long Covid after each infection. Choose wisely. Guessing latter
Conservatives did not wake up one day and say that the massive rise in forest fires was due to arson. This is risible nonsense and did not spontaneously occur to conservatives. It is part of an organized, relentless and highly effective program of disinformation.
Nonsense. After the US (which is an outlier) we are one of the highest gun owners (and shooting deaths ) amongst advanced western societies. Our gun laws suck. Japan has no guns . Guess what no shootings. It really is not that hard .
How hard was that? Guess what public support for this measure would be? I am going to hazard a guess of 80% . So why are we enduring the march of the toxic imbeciles at a time when it is so utterly disconnected from the public interest or public opinion.
Although this seems odd , it seems that the NDP rise in Ontario has come at the expense of the CPC . The LPC are well ahead and the CPC are now barely ahead of the NDP /
Flash! For all those still up I have just received my latest numbers from today . Adding to the most recent I can say with confidence that the LPC are going to win Elxn 43. The only question is whether it will be a majority or minority and it is looking like the former
I am deeply concerned about the corrosive impacts of disinformation . It used to be that we could have our own opinions but not our own facts. We are now in a period of epistemic crisis where trust is being corroded to levels that strain our economic and democratic integrity .
There are a number of interesting correlates of those who support Mr. Poilievre. But by far, the most powerful predictor is the degree to which they believe things which are patently false to be true. This tightly links to massive mistrust and a propensity to ordered populist…
Dishonesty is the central feature of Poilievre messaging. If he is ever given the keys to the PMO, premium gatekeeper status, he will abandon the punters slurping his populist apple juice.
As I imagine the panic,fear and unspeakable suffering in Ukraine , my tolerance for this shamblolic shuffling monument to self indulgent, stupidity has been utterly exhausted
Just to give a sense of how polarized and critical these factors are amongst unvaccinated 99.7% are voting UPC and 0% are voting NDP . I have never seen that size of difference in a large random probability sample . Huge gaps on levels of disinformation and mistrust
I am a firm believer in the wisdom of crowds and coming to public judgment. The policy challenges facing the country are unprecedented. Having a stable government reflecting the dominant values and interests of the country at this perilous period is a huge relief.
So, a horde of unmasked , unvaxxed agitators are coming to Ottawa to demand that the government rescind policies which were a ballot booth issue in recent election and supported by 75% of Canadians . And they will stick around and wreak havoc until the government accedes to them?
I am a forgiving and temperate person. I accept foibles and frailties. But I cannot imagine resuming normal relations with erstwhile friends and family who have chosen the antivax path.
Let me distill this to the basics . We have real safety in sight . Not years but months away . I am viscerally angry at those that cannot endure a full pause for next month . They simply don't care about the lives and disabilities. Totally unnecessary.
I posted a story about Canada receiving a second place rating in 2023 best countries . I have removed this innocuous post as I cannot bear the torrent of abuse that it has precipitated. Similar with a study on efficacy of mandates in Ohio State. The legion of
#DiedSuddenly
nazi,…
OMG . is it over? What a tremendous waste of psychic energy . Let me spare you the speculation of who won , lost , what impact . It was a meaningless waste of time. Possibly the most vacuous and tedious debate in Canadian political history
We are close to the point that we can continue to relax the restrictions, including vaccine passports, that have produced such high levels of vaccination and safety for Canadians. Those who resisted these measures undoubtedly extended the length, costs and suffering of pandemic .
Canada, like many other advanced western societies is at a critical juncture. Authoritarian populism has re-emerged.Sneering /denial are no cure. It's now being reinforced by powerful disinformation.Stakes could not be higher. Those who forget history are destined to repeat it .
Here is a suggestion. Any police or security personnel who were aiding this unlawful and seditious movement should be sacked. Immediately. Rebuild a police and security establishment that believe in rule of law and public interest.
4 nights of polling since the report of the Ethics Commissioner on the SNC affair and conduct of PMO. Despite the media salience this appears to have had zero impact on vote intention. In fact the Liberals are in significantly better position today than they were 5 days ago.
A couple of teasers from survey work still in the field. Last summer , Doug Ford and Jason Kenney's governments enjoyed 80%+ approval ratings for their handling of the pandemic.Those are now at 22% and 18% respectively . The chart looks like one of those bad Tesla rocket landings
We are treading dangerously close to authoritarian populism. Doesn't require most citizens. Never works out well. The tyranny of anger and deception. History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes. The first lesson is no one ever sees it coming .
So who does NOT think vaccine passports are a good idea? ALERT! Those who are hard core anti vax. Guess what ? That is exactly why they are a good idea . To move enough anti vaxers into the will vax category to break herd immunity threshold . Spare me the arcane ethics
Anyone who feels anything else but a deep sense of regret for what has happened to politics and public institutions , is failing to understand what this really means .
I have been studying human response to Covid 19 since March of 2020 (daily) . At that time 66% of Canadians thought that it would be over in six months . Sadly , the horizon keeps vanishing further and further. But , here is a bold prediction . The worst will be over in 3 months
Personal bias disclosed. I have been working very hard to find out how to ensure that as many people as possible get vaxxed for over a year. It' safe and highly effective . Second, I really hate racists particularly when their racism in not even disguised. Full confession .
This is a new nadir . Turnout of less than 40% . Clearly the progressive majority had better things to do. Suggest federal progressives start working on a brand new playbook and keep the current agreement in place till they have some idea how to deal with this . You are losing .