60000 Sensex has a nice ring to it.
Here are the headlines from 19 March 2020.
All investors who held through these headlines in 2020, take a bow.
You deserve it. Now you know that such things do happen but being disciplined and sticking to your plan can be rewarding.
The best 30 minute investment you can make today. Prof Aswath Damodaran on lifecycle of companies, the choices they face and how that Narrative connects to the Numbers.
P Gopichand on why kids should play sport.
Sports teaches kids about
1)failure & that too in public
2)bouncing back from failure
Nothing else can teach you this lesson!
Fantastic! Thank you for sharing your thoughts this evening.
Distribution of the 55m Indian who filed tax returns in AY 19(FY18) based on income disclosed
Tax liability of 63% of filers drops to zero, though they would have to file returns due to the Feb 19 budget provisions.
Only 98000 have income above 1cr 🙈
Miles law:Where you stand depends on where you sit
Why is the market falling?
Mercantilist:trade war
Monetarist:Stimulus withdrawal
Taxationist:LTCG
Bankers:Provisioning
Political analyst:2019
Value investors:valuation
Growth investors:earnings
Conspiracy theorists: conspiracy!
The price of solar panels is in free fall and Chinese capacity exceeds global demand.
Time to rethink our strategy?
Does domestic manufacturing sense?
Should we change course and embark on large scale purchases and installation?
Via @ FT
My summary of yesterday: Govt reduces it's share of the income earned by businesses.This step leaves money in the hands of this who earn it and are arguably the ones who drive the economy through their actions of investing, hiring and producing something of value to customers
There are many methods to make money in the market.
Each of these practitioners has their own method.
Too much fundamentalism about 'my way is the only way' displays ignorance of this data.
Chart h/t
@michaelbatnick
Left BKC at 8pm. Got a kaali peeli on 2nd try.Driver had a niece stranded in lower Parel & I was headed to Parel;It was a Match!He recited poetry enroute.
Turns out I knew his niece's office;we picked her up; I got dropped at 915pm& they headed home.Thank you Umar & the universe
Interesting to see the responses in the US to the SVB crisis. Many free market advocates and libertarians advocating a bailout to save ' US leadership in tech world, innovation' etc.
They want capitalism on the way up & socialism when things fall apart.
Set your expectations!
You can't earn more from stocks(aggregate) than what companies earn ie RoE.
(Long term equilibrium)
Investor expectations are >25%pa
RoE of Nifty 500~15%
If stocks make > underlying business always;then why be an entrepreneur? Better to open demat AC!
Whoa! US 30yr mortgage rate nearing decadal high of 5%.
And the Fed has just started hiking.
In India you can get a housing loan
at 6.7%.
Suspect it's a record low spread.
Things I never expected to see!
US households hold more than 45% of their financial assets in equity, the highest since 1972 and also the highest compared to other nations.Should we be surprised that the US Fed looks at stock markets while formulating monetary policy?
HT Nikhil Gupta,Economist @ Motilal Oswal
Asset monetization is a sale and lease back. If ownership is to revert to govt, then either lease rentals will be higher or govt will have to buy the asset back at the end of the period or enter another sale and leaseback transaction at the end. This is a funding mechanism.
Too much noise & fuss about increasing retail participation in Equity markets. More investor participation in equities is welcome; be it directly or via Mutual Funds - Active & Passive.There is room for all.
Note : Please avoid day trading and leverage.
Wishing Swati exciting new journeys! after 30 years
@utimutualfund
It's been an honour to work with you.
16 years of stewardship of UTI Mastershare & Dividend Yield; 18 years steering UTI MNC fund
We thank you for your service and for the wealth you have created for investors
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala forever.
You are the investing legend of our time; we are lucky to have learnt from you.
Your story will be an investing inspiration for years to come
Om Shanti
Big Mistakes: This is a crisp book by
@michaelbatnick
. Throws a spotlight on mistakes by legendary investors. The point of this book is to show you that lousy investments cannot be avoided. Refreshingly different from the 'you can do it too' books.
What exactly is the term 'lattice work of mental models'? The importance of what they don't teach at Bschool- Philosophy,Biology,Sociology, Literature...& the connectedness of it all to investing.Can't recollect who gifted me this book;Thanks it's moved into my all time fav list.
Why can we not follow rules?
There are policemen posted on the BKC exit to LBS Marg only to make sure that traffic does not attempt to drive down the wrong side of the road. A society that cannot follow simple traffic rules gets what it deserves.
Shameful.
As a flyer - look forward to flying the new Air India from the house of Tata.
As a tax payer, happy that this drain on the exchequer has halted-Rs 1,10,000 crore from 2010, funded by the citizens of India
The privatization is a powerful signal of the intent of the government.
SC Ban on construction in select states & UTs because they failed to frame law for solid waste management.
Begs the question - who is at fault and who is being punished?
Covid19 is forcing Corporate India to deleverage
Rights issues,Promoter sell downs being announced everyday.
It could be a record year for equity issues and secondary placements in India - sensible thing.
In the US bond issuance is setting records courtesy a Fed backstop.
Some believe its about liquidity, others think it's all macro.Some believe in forecasting ability & others
think valuation.Some try to find moats & superior managers;others think waves & patterns. The goal:to compound wealth.But the key lies in your EQ, not the choice of method
A day to celebrate our freedoms and be grateful to those who gave their everything to get us our freedom.
Saluting the Tricolour
UTI Tower
@utimutualfund
Let us recognize cycles for what they are.
Slowdowns are not a 'bug' in the operating system & neither is a 'market correction'. They are a feature of the system & they will recur.
Prepare for it & accept that you will encounter these features in your investing journey.
Today
@varinder_bansal
asked me about the risk of positive bias from frequent meetings with company managements.
The risk is highlighted by Kahneman
'Repetition induces cognitive ease & a comforting feeling''
“Familiarity breeds liking.This is a mere exposure effect"
Why is there no discussion about the 3rd option in the context of market hours - ie reduced trading hours!
a)Most traders lose money
b)Trade execution take up the least time in the investing process
c)Mental health
Consider a reduction
@_prashantnair
in your next debate
Why not allow import of vaccines that have been approved for use elsewhere? Pfizer, Moderna, J&J.
The US says all adults will be vaccinated by July. So there will be vaccines available then for sure if not already available.
The time to decide is now
Every year on September 5th, I wish the markets a happy Teacher’s Day. To this day, that is the only teacher to whom I have paid fees more than once to learn the same lesson.
Much being written about 1991 and what remains to be done. My 2 bits:
Focus on education & healthcare - key to developing our human capital
Judiciary & police reforms to make system more effective
Fuels&Power-taxation & pricing reform
Ease of doing business- more to be done
No1 question these days: How to handle election risk in 2019?
Over 5,10,15 & 20 years the BSE200 beats the Shanghai Composite hands down. You still want to discuss elections?
There is more to investing than elections.
(Oh & in case you don't get it China has no elections)
The LIC act provides for 90% of profits to be transferred to policy holders. The policy holders rely on this for their bonus etc (LIC distributes 95%). ie LIC is a Mutual company or cooperative. This is very different from structure of private insurers.
There is a difference between business failure, fraud/theft and willful default. Worrying that in the current environment and debate - everything is being painted with the same brush.
For
@VetriSmv
of
@utimutualfund
this is the 4th big crisis in his professional journey. He speaks of how the 3 before this affected him personally and professionally and what lesson he has leaned. A must read.
@monikahalan
@deeptibhaskaran
Every successful FM will have his or her losers.
'I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career.I’ve lost almost 300 games.
26 times,I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot & missed. I’ve failed over & over & over again in my life & that is why I succeed' Michael Jordan
We've always known about migrant labour.They work at our homes,offices, shops & establishments all around us. They made our lives comfortable but their issues stayed invisible to us & policy makers.We have failed them.I pray that we are given a second chance to do right by them
Today’s India is different from the India of 2008
Many of you were not investing in the GFC era (2008) and many may have forgotten the heady days that preceded it.
Here is my refresher covering economic indicators, valuations and flows - then & now.
Fiscal stimulus? We just had a budget presented in February that allocates 72000cr to 12cr farm households and 23000cr tax benefit to 3cr tax payers (full tax rebate for income<5lakh). And people seriously think government should give more stimulus?
Multiple reports of shutdowns by auto companies. The obvious response to excess inventory. A
@BloombergQuint
report suggests that inventory is declining. Do we we really need a goverment led intervention? Let the invisible hand of the market do it's job?
Equities are slaves to earnings. If you break that down further, what is really important is earnings per share growth and free cash flow per share growth. In other words equity dilution, capital allocation & capital productivity are crucial determinants.
Many have come to interpret 'Value' as merely a statistical factor (cheap valuation).
I suggest they dwell on Howard Marks simple formulation 'the choice is not really between value and growth but between value today and value tomorrow'
Then it makes sense and that's my approach
Talking to
@ValueResearch
When thinking of value; think about the attractiveness of the business; its ability to deploy capital at an attractive return & the ability to survive a difficult period. Also how to spot potential value traps.
Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities & Threats ie SWOT
Some points in
@andymukherjee70
column resonated with me & on many points I disagree.He draws attention to what he sees as W&T;the rebuttals focus only on S&O
All 4 quadrants of SWOT matter.
We can overcome if we execute well
The Master Short seller who was always Net Long. 'I never wanted to get up in the morning hoping that things would be getting worse.'
Do you need to be a pessimist to be a short seller? Reminded of Kahneman who said - optimism was the fuel of capitalism.
Chat between
@safiranand
& Sanjay Bhattacharyya, summarised by
@larissafernand
'metrics such as PE, PB & div yield are statistical measures to test hypothesis; they do not define what is value'
Echoes our blog on the subject
Always wanted to ask
@ajinkyarahane88
about the cake he was offered with a kangaroo on it and why he refused to cut it. The small things that tell you more about a person. More of this conversation on his FB page.
I am deeply torn here.
Breaking environment rules should be punished. But is blowing up the homes of those who bought in good faith the appropriate punishment? If govt authorities issues clearances is the government not culpable?
Sad. Just Sad
Today, we bid adieu to Kaushik Basu, FM of the Childrens funds,ETFs/Index funds.He retires after a career of over 30 years
@utimutualfund
. We cherish your contribution to the team and organisation
We wish you many more exciting journeys & treasures at the end of every Rainbow 🌈
My conversation with Udayan Mukherjee in which we discussed a range of scenarios. The best way to deal with uncertainty is to be prepared.
I have no forecast for 2023. ( Same for every year before this). Will leave that to others more skilled than me
Subscriptions, auto debits, recurring payments are a complete mess, courtesy the new rules & limits.
What was once friction free is now manual.
Why not let customers choose?
@RBI
GDP growth & market return. Are they correlated? Is it a sufficient condition? Sachin Trivedi , Head of Research at
@utimutualfund
in the first of our white papers explores the data and academic research. Read & learn.
@dugalira
Back to 90s? I used to carry an invoice copy & letter from employer on trips- to prove that this was a legally purchased, duty paid laptop.
Sometime they would insist on matching serial number, I had no clue where to find it! They used to stamp the document on the way out.
What were you thinking?
This quote by Scott McNeally, founder of Sun Micro, puts in perspective how crazy valuations had become during the tech bubble.