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Traderade

2 months

Journaling your trades is critical for your growth and increasing the odds of success as a trader. Learn more about why. ✍️

The Importance of Journaling Your Trades

Trading in financial markets can be a challenging endeavor that requires discipline, focus, and a continuous pursuit of knowledge. One tool that many traders have found to be invaluable for their...

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Last Seen Profiles

@GigsMellowYello

@munroe_patsy

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@0Mlli

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@Momo_X0X0

@Meagan_Salia

Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Shorts are starting to cover. 👀

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Wow! Check this out! A video visualizing the historic bear market of 2022 across S&P 500 sectors. 📊

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$QQQ continues to catch down to $TLT. Bonds are the smart money. Watch them closely!

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Rents are falling on a month-over-month basis now. This may take some time to show up in data sets like CPI that rely on owner's equivalent rent surveys, but nevertheless it is an encouraging development in the economy.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Real estate debt in China has crashed, with its value down 70% from the recent peak.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Bear markets tend to end after the Fed has cut rates significantly. 📉 No need to rush in to "buy the dip."

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$QQQ vs $TLT divergence widening, putting into question the longevity of this rally unless bonds catch a bid.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$QQQ vs $TLT: The jaws are closing again. Bonds are always right.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Retail is buying the dip aggressively! This doesn't necessarily indicate a bottom is in. In fact, it could be the opposite as there hasn't been too much raising of cash leading into this exposure increase.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

60/40 portfolio returns are the worst in over 100 years so far in 2022

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Can you tell the difference between the S&P 500 and the (inverted) US dollar? Dollar up = markets down, and dollar down = markets up for much of 2022. The negative correlation now stands at a stunning 87%!

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Rate Expectations so far, from Top Banks in November and December

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The bulls are back, and we're starting to see some extremes in the CBOE put/call ratio as a result. 👀 Are we nearing near-term buyer exhaustion? 🤔

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The performance of $100 invested into FAANG stocks over the last five years. 📊 $AMZN $AAPL $GOOGL $META $NFLX

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

“Those who keep learning, will keep rising in life.” — Charlie Munger

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The NASDAQ is oversold based on this NAMO reading, but not nearly as oversold as the NYSE which is below -90 per NYMO. Typically a reading this low is nearing seller exhaustion, but exceptions occur during disorderly declines.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Visualizing the top economies of the world from 1960 through 2021. Some of the growth is nothing short of remarkable.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Fed Funds Futures are pricing in a terminal rate as high as 5% with 53.5% certainty for February. This implies: 1) A 75 bps hike in November. 2) Another 75 bps hike in December. 3) A 25 bps hike in February. 4) The Fed then pausing to assess the impact of their hiking.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

1 year

US CPI year-over-year headline number estimates ANZ: 6.2% BofA: 6.1% Citi: 6.3% Commerzbank: 6.2% Deutsche Bank: 6.2% NBF: 6.2% RBC: 6.2% TDS: 6.2% Wells Fargo: 6.2% What do you think the reading will be? 🤔

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$QQQ looks expensive again vs $TLT.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The US dollar's monetary base shrank by approximately one trillion since the Fed began tightening. More evidence of less forgiving financial conditions. Why does it matter? Because there's less money available to chase risk assets like stocks or crypto. That impacts markets.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Until household allocations to equities are reduced significantly, it is likely that we have more downside risk in the US stock market. At present they are close to record highs vs GDP.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The price of power is surging in the US. ⚡️ Many electricity intensive industries have to pass on this increased cost to their customers.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

With the S&P 500 falling 25% in 9 months, and firmly in a bear market, it's important to look at prior bear markets to compare and contrast. The average bear market sees the S&P 500 fall 38% over the course of approximately trading 318 days (or just under a year and a half).

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Housing inventory builds often lead spikes in unemployment ... and we've just seen a significant housing inventory build. Is unemployment about to surge to 5%+ over the next 1.5 years or is this time different? Source:

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Our co-founder @ayeshatariq was featured on @FoxBusiness ! She discussed $NKE, $UPS, and a few other stocks as well as the economy on Making Money with @cvpayne . This is what we're all about at . Educating and providing insights.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

There's really no liquidity in $ES_F lately. Better than where it was, but quite low. This lack of liquidity amplifies price movements. Something to consider when determining position sizing as a trader. @ayeshatariq @Mayhem4Markets @Michigandolf

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

S&P 500 futures short positioning remains high at $101 billion vs an average of $50 billion. But it is down from recent highs of $125 billion. A fair amount of this positioning is likely hedging rather than just directional bias as premiums were expensive for S&P 500 options.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The four biggest companies, $AAPL, $MSFT, $GOOGL, and $AMZN, make up about 21% of the S&P 500.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

6 months

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

While the market is down heavily today across the board, the number of new highs vs new lows isn't anywhere near an extreme. Suggesting that this isn't an aggressive sell-off .. yet.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

September is historically a difficult month for equity markets. The S&P 500 tends to lose approximately 1% when looking at data going back to 1928.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The Federal Reserve has close to $9 trillion worth of assets on its balance sheet. In September QT was expanded to a run rate of up to $95 trillion per month: - $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities - $60 billion in Treasury securities This may add pressure to the market.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Chinese stocks are in free fall today: $BABA down 14.38% $JD down 15.04% $BIDU down 15.13% $TCEHY down 15.31% $PDD down 28.59%

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

FREE CONTENT ALERT! Why your ego has no place in your trading — an excellent trading psychology piece by @Mayhem4Markets that's now available to everyone. Check it out!

Why one's ego has no place in trading

It's natural to want to be right, but being right has little value in the market unless your timing is also correct. The problem with the desire to be right, to seek validation from the market for...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$CVNA insiders sold the top (sales in red, buys in green)

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Periods of very low consumer confidence often coincide with stock market gains to follow. Consumer confidence is near historic lows now.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Fed Funds Futures are pricing in a whopping 92% probability of a 75 bps hike coming next Wednesday at the September 21st FOMC policy announcement. We're also seeing a potential terminate rate of 4.25% being priced in for March of 2023. Things are getting spicy! 🌶️

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The largest uranium companies by 2021 production. 📊

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

US retail sales better than expected at 1.3% vs a 1% forecast. Core retail sales 1.3% vs forecast of 0.5% Strength in auto sales, but noteworthy weakness in general merchandise. The latter is *very* bad news for many retailers that continue to struggle with inventories.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Fed Funds Futures are back to pricing in a terminal rate of 4.5-4.75% after a brief reprieve. The never ending parade of Fed speakers, many of whom are jawboning hawkishly, is restoring some degree of sanity in these projections today. @Mayhem4Markets @ayeshatariq

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$QQQ just about caught down to $TLT, so at this point it's no longer out of sync. Perhaps one reason that we're seeing some degree of relative strength in the NASDAQ today vs the broader market.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Less new orders means less manufacturing activity. Less manufacturing activity means a slowing global economy. @AyeshaTariq @Mayhem4Markets

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

11 months

This has been a very aggressive rate hiking cycle Source: Morgan Stanley

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Longs aren't too long this market when looking at the Goldman Sachs prime book. 👀

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

This isn't what you want to see ahead of a Fed-induced recession 1: Credit card loans are surging 2: Savings rate is plunging 3: The Fed says rates are going much higher, meaning credit card default rates set to rise meaningfully Demand destruction is likely to be significant

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

One of these things is not like the others. One of these things is just not the same. High yield debt, as shown with $HYG, is outperforming Treasury notes, bonds, investment grade corporate debt, and mortgage-backed securities. ... yet it is a higher risk credit instrument. 🤔

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Signs of trouble in small business land as late rents surge. 👀

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

According to BoFA research, the current valuation for the S&P suggests price returns of about 5% over the next decade.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Check out this excellent free post by @ayeshatariq about how the Fed's QT program works. This is an important topic and highly recommended reading!

How Quantitative Tightening is Supposed to Work

A short primer on the calculations There’s been a lot speculation around the Fed’s plans for balance sheet reduction, or what we fondly like to call Quantitative Tightening (QT). Much of the specul...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

7 months

Hey everyone! Curious what's going on in the world of finance? Our co-founder @AyeshaTariq discusses her views on the stock market, rates and shares five stocks she's watching as long-term trades or investments with @cvpayne . 🤩 Check it out and share it with others!

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The week that was. Red, red almost everrywhere.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Volatility was the clear winner in September, followed by wheat, silver, and OJ. 🍊 Natural gas, cotton, and lean hogs were big losers. 🐷 Lumber got axed. 🪓 What a wild month it was! 📈📉 What do you think will happen in October? 🤔

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$AAPL is the only megacap that has outperformed the broader market in 2022. The company accounts for 7% of the S&P 500's market weighting, and are down 17% in 2022. $GOOGL is down 30% year-to-date. $AMZN and $MSFT are down 28% so far this year.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The labor force participation rate remains near historic lows, a function of less people wanting to work in an environment where there are two jobs for every one person wanting employment. Will wealth destruction change how these non-participating people feel about working?

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Saudi government-linked investors are selling US treasuries to buy stocks here. 👀

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Social media ad spend is falling, and as a deep recession looms it's likely to get much worse. $SNAP $TWTR $META

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The chasm between $QQQ vs $TLT is growing. The 10-year note auction today wasn't great. We've seen Treasury longer dated notes and bonds selling down. - $TLT is down 0.93% - $IEF is down 0.32% - Meanwhile $QQQ is up 0.86%, led by $AAPL up 4.03% on strong initial iPhone orders

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Tightening financial conditions are proving to be a headwind for risk assets, and the Fed isn't close to achieving their policy goals of yet. It is likely that equities have further downside risk, but so do lower grade bonds, crypto, and real estate. Be nimble.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Housing prices are likely to continue falling as we see supply increasing at a rapid pace. Morgan Stanley asserts that this sort of large increase in supply is usually associated with home prices falling over the next year. This is may put more pressure on $ITB and $XHB. 🏡📉

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

During the prior 70 years, bear markets have been relatively short-lived when compared to the bull markets that have followed. The average bear market during that time lasted 14 months with an average decline of 33%. The average bull returned 279% and lived for 72 months.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$QQQ vs $TLT: positive divergence suggests $QQQ may be vulnerable to downside.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

1 year

This week is going to be exciting! We've got CPI, PPI, Fednesday, retail sales, consumer sentiment, $296B of US Treasury debt issuance, and quad witching. We're also in a technical bull market, but is it real? The latest Navigating the Markets is out!

Navigating the Markets: June 12th-16th

Happy Sunday, Traderade family! The question on everyone's mind right now is whether this is a new bull market. I discuss that, as well as the busy week ahead, OpEx, and more in the video for this...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Retail selling in the Nasdaq 100 continues

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The oil supply situation remains tight in the US. As a result, prices may remain elevated above the range we saw before COVID hit unless there is a meaningful drop in demand.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$ES_F closed right in the center of a key high volume node ahead of CPI tomorrow. 👀

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

September was a brutal month! 🩸 Healthcare was a safe haven. ⚕️ Our co-founder @ayeshatariq identified this sector as one to watch because of its relative strength. 💪 Stay tuned to for more updates like this!

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The week ahead will be a busy one! ▶️ Earnings season is in full swing 📊 ▶️ VIXperation on Wednesday ⚠️ ▶️ Options expiration on Friday 🚨 ▶️ Major housing data releases 🏘️ ▶️ A light week of Treasury auctions 💰 ▶️ A whole bunch of Fed speakers 🥳

Navigating the week ahead: October 17th, 2022

Happy Sunday, Traderade family! I hope everyone has had a good weekend. Next week brings us a lot of important earnings, some key economic data on housing, a light week in Treasury auctions, volati...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

1 year

Our co-founder @AyeshaTariq will be making another appearance on the Making Money with @cvpayne Show! 🤩 If you didn't know already, we're big fans of his show. We consider it must watch TV! Be sure to tune into @FoxBusiness tomorrow at 2:00 pm ET to watch her interview!

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

All four leading sectors are declining, showing us that confidence in both the economy and the market is weakening. ⚠️

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

CNBC: 54% of adults say they have stopped or reduced their retirement savings contributions due to inflation, study shows

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

If you've ever struggled with FOMO in your trading then this is a must read post for you. @Mayhem4Markets discusses the psychology of FOMO, why it can be so problematic to our returns, and how to avoid it. Check it out!

Why FOMO often becomes oh no!

Happy Tuesday, friends! I wanted to share some thoughts with everyone about why panic buying isn't any better than panic selling in terms making consistent returns.

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Ahead of the FOMC announcement the market is projecting a terminal rate as high as 5.25% next year, and a coin toss between 50-75 bps in December. First cuts expected as early as September. The rate hike today is expected to be 75 bps with 88.2% certainty.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Is the market setting up for a potential relief rally in the short-term? @Mayhem4Markets dives in, analyzing what's going on from multiple angles, including breadth, positioning, sentiment, volatility, and more. A must read for traders and investors. 🧐

Setting up for a short-term pop?

September tends to be the worst month for markets, and last month was no disappointment in that regard as the S&P 500 fell nearly 10%, took out the June lows, and retraced back to levels not seen...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Risk premiums are still too low when looking at the probabilities of defaults within BBB-rated company debt. The market is still hoping for a soft landing—but the Fed made it clear there is to be no soft landing. In all likelihood junk debt sees a big haircut in price soon.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The recent bear market rally has been powerful, with many stocks showing powerful upside momentum since the October 13th post-CPI low. But the drop in $SPX put skew and $VIX begs the question — are some hedges becoming attractively priced here? 🤔

Are hedges attractively priced here?

Someone wiser than me once said, "buy hedges when they are cheap, not when you need them". Does the current market environment imply that time may be here?Put skew remains subduedOne measure for the...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

10 months

You know it's true 😂

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$QQQ vs $TLT: room to catch down within this positive divergence. After a terrible 20-year auction, bonds are seeing more pressure, and stocks have yet to realize just how bad the duration situation is.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

This drop in productivity only increases the challenges that businesses are facing in an environment of slowing demand in many industries, while wages have risen (at least in nominal terms). Many will likely be tempted to slow hiring or even begin letting employees go.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

US CPI for October

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The 30-year mortgage rate is at 7% for the first time in over 20 years! This puts further pressure on the already slowing housing market as prices remain high, and rising rates further push up the cost of home ownership. Many won't be able to buy a home until prices/rates fall.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$NVDA earnings look encouraging on the surface, but the quarter-over-quarter deceleration in data center revenue is concerning as that was the strongest area of growth, and the largest revenue segment for the semiconductor giant.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Curious why bonds and stocks are more correlated in 2022 than they have been in a long time? Check out @Mayhem4Markets 's research note that talks about the relationship, what it means for the market, and why we should be watching it closely. $QQQ $SPY

Bonds and stocks: trading like they're the same thing

Correlations sometimes mean nothing at all, but there are occasions when they may provide insights that are worth watching. I've been paying attention to the correlation between bonds and stocks as...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

$QQQ continuing to catch down to $TLT

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Housing is not affordable, which is one reason that home prices likely have much further to fall.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

A peak at Europe's energy inflation situation from 2017 through the present. What we're seeing now is staggering! The level of cost push inflation driven by energy prices rising is enormous, and may lead to 18%+ inflation in the UK during 2023 according to Citi and Goldman.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

11 months

It was great to see @AyeshaTariq on @cvpayne 's awesome show again today! 🤩

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

One of the reasons a China reopening could have a big impact on demand is the emergence of a 700M strong middle class in the country, which is #2 in global wealth, and by quite a lot.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

We hope everyone is having a great weekend. Our *FREE* guide to navigating the week ahead is out! We've got CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Triple Witching, two key earnings, and $187B in Treasury auctions scheduled! Fasten your seatbelts!

Navigating the Week Ahead: September 12th 2022

We hope everyone's having a great weekend! The week ahead promises to be quite busy, especially in terms of the economic events and Treasury auctions, but there are a few key earnings to watch as...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The week ahead will be a busy one, with a speech from Powell, lots of key economic data, and some key tech earnings! On the economic side we have preliminary GDP, PCE to check inflation, JOLTS and NFP for a look at the labor market, and manufacturing ISM.

Navigating the week ahead: November 28th, 2022

Happy Sunday, Traderade family! I hope everyone has had a wonderful holiday break. We have an exciting week ahead of us, especially with the volume of key economic data we have coming out. Let's dive...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

A recessionary print from the Philly Fed index today, which came in much lower than expectations at -19.4 vs -6. Firms are still reporting price increases, and expect to continue raising prices as inflation warrants. $SPY $QQQ $IWM

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Are you ready for the week ahead? We have a bunch of key earnings, economic data, a slew of Fed speakers, as well as VIXperation and monthly options expiration! @Mayhem4Markets guides us through what he's watching and why it is important to the markets.

Navigating the week ahead: November 14th, 2022

Happy Sunday, friends! We have a busy week of data and earnings, with plenty of Fed speakers interspersed into the mix. On top of all that we have volatility product and options expiration!What...

www.traderade.com

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

The FTX saga continues to demonstrate that the lack of regulation within the crypto space has proven to be harmful for many clients.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

7 months

WHAT'S CRAZIEST CHART FROM THE PAST 5 YEARS?! Submit your pick in the replies for a chance to win 1 Free Year of TradingView Premium and Traderade Plus! Submit your @tradingview chart in the replies with a brief description, then Like & Repost this Tweet to enter.⬇️

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

10 months

Our co-founder @AyeshaTariq Appears on Making Money with @cvpayne to Discuss Markets and the Economy 🤩

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Currency volatility is surging back to levels not seen since the COVID crash. One driving component of this increase in volatility is less and less liquidity in global markets. Forex liquidity has been no exception, dropping meaningfully from where it was last year.

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

7 months

Credit card borrowing has risen over $1 trillion, and interest rates on credit cards are at all-time highs. 💳

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

1 year

What's the difference between "Catching a Falling Knife" and "Buying the Dip"? In this article, @michigandolf shares his thoughts on the subject for day traders, swing traders, and investors!

"Knife Catching" vs Buying a Dip: What's the Difference?

Ever heard the phrase "Don't try to catch a falling knife"? Catching a falling knife is a metaphor used in the stock market to describe the act of buying a stock that is rapidly declining in price,...

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Fund managers are overweight cash and underweight equities, as they position defensively. Other popular positions include: - Healthcare - Staples - Bonds - Utilities - Commodities Other unpopular positions are: - Tech - Eurozone exposure - Telecoms - Discretionaries

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Traderade

@TraderadeTweets

2 years

Diesel inventories are far, far below the prior 5-year range. Suggesting that any disruption could be very problematic. Some suppliers are already warning about shortages and higher prices to come.

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