TardFiWhale.eth @TardFiWhale Twitter profile

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TardFiWhale.eth

2 years

Hate to say I told you so… $LUNA now in death spiral. Buying the dip is a fools errand. $UST is also screwed. It’s backed by $LUNA which is 6bn+ market cap while $UST is 14bn+. The $btc $avax backing it is not enough.

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

6. $LUNA explodes early in 2022 but then $UST and $LUNA face a devastating bank run that leaves $LUNA down 95%+. Fully un-collateralized algo stable coins are flawed.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

$COIN and BTC ETF update. Some alpha here. Coinbase is the execution agent for many BTC ETFs. Sources tell me they are charging ~20bps execution fee. This fee and any slippage in price on execution will be passed along to ETF MMers. This has several implications:

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

8 and final/ As a bounty for exposing the critical flaws in Ethena, I request a public commitment from @ethena_labs for half a day's interest, $500k, to be donated to the following entities: 50% to @protocolguild Ethereum All Core Devs 25% to @zachxbt for recovering people’s…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

This has been a difficult time for everyone in crypto. Here is a TradFi take on what I believe has happened so far given the information we have. I attempt to put the pieces together and explain what is likely next and how to take advantage. 🧵

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

1/5 🧵Ethena – Impending Implosion First, the idea of tokenizing crypto perps funding across CEX’s (and potentially DEX’s later) is a very interesting idea and one that I support. Also, those fudding Ethena for negative funding are misguided given how transparent it is, and how…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

1/3 I’m calling out @CryptoHayes and @cobie who are invested in Ethena and have large followers to push Ethena to respond before TGE. Ethena is critically flawed and WILL fail. There are solutions to fix it. I simply ask for a public commitment to a bounty that will be donated

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

8 and final/ As a bounty for exposing the critical flaws in Ethena, I request a public commitment from @ethena_labs for half a day's interest, $500k, to be donated to the following entities: 50% to @protocolguild Ethereum All Core Devs 25% to @zachxbt for recovering people’s…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

This is the scammy deceptive marketing I keep seeing from Ethena. Ethena did NOT earn $5.4mm in 1 week. They are keeping the yield from anyone holding USDe instead of sUSDe. Why does anyone hold USDe? Because they are incentivizing it with $ENA tokens. Ethena is essentially…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

Does anyone care why the BTC ETF flow numbers are off? If this gets 100 likes then I’ll make a thread otherwise will not spend the time.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

1/ $USDe has crossed $1bn! 🚨Time for a 🧵on the coming downfall of USDe and @Ethena_labs Bad news: If USDe keeps growing, people will lose a lot of money given how the protocol currently operates. Good news: There are solutions to fix it.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

1/ A 🧵on how @BendDAO currently works, why the FUD is wrong, and the real problems with the current protocol. Full disclosure: I pulled all my $eth yesterday and have no current exposure. This is to help others understand their position or those thinking about lending.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

Would anyone like a deep-dive thread on BTC ETF flows and volumes for the past week? Retweet this and if I get more than 200 likes, I will write it up tomorrow. I will never DM for money, I've never been paid to promote anything, I've already made life-changing money, and I'm…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

The blind leading the blind. This is completely wrong. Ki’s numbers are obviously and easily provably wrong. I’m tired of trying to correct all the misinfo. Unless this gets a thousand likes, I’m moving on. I no longer believe CT cares about the truth.

James Seyffart

@JSeyff

5 months

Based on this data from Ki AND based on sources i've spoken to directly. $GBTC flows are not T+1. That -$594 million outflow yesterday actually occurred yesterday and did *NOT* occur Friday.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

4pm btc etf update ~4.5bn total volume Half the volume was GBTC GBTC ~1.5% discount All others ~1% premium give or take Create redeem cutoff time is 6pm, so the providers are allowing “T-1” creates. All slippage is passed along to MM’s so this is not gamble.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

28 days

If anyone is doubting the ETH ETF approval just look at the ETHE chart. Someone front ran the news for over an hour before announcement for a ~5% collapse in NAV discount. Insiders don’t front run fake news. Because ETH is a commodity, I don’t think MNPI insider laws apply. 🤷

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/ A 🧵 on why reported BTC ETF flows are incorrect. There are multiple rabbit holes to jump down. First, let’s point out why the reported flows appear off. Looking at the table from @EricBalchunas (I’m trusting it’s accurate), we can see multiple examples where volume is

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

Who wants to see me post an Ethena update? Show me you care, and I will take the time to write it.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

1/ In anticipation of future investigations from relevant legal authorities concerning @ethena_labs , I have compiled evidence of highly manipulative and deceptive marketing tactics found in Ethena's documentation as of March 29, 2024. This aims to shed light on the methods…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/ 🚨Deep-dive🧵on BTC ETF volume and flows through 1/19/2024: I hope that your takeaway from reading this will be to think for yourself instead of trusting CT influencers, and further enhance your skills to evaluate data on your own. Please repost and like.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

24 days

Ethena has a $40mm reserve fund and $3.5mm protocol treasury, yet they’re unwilling to donate $1mm to public goods like Ethereum core devs in order to prevent massive losses in their $2.75bn TVL and growing. Why? Likely because they already know the problem, and don’t want to…

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

5/5 I will fully disclose the critical flaws in Ethena and the fix (yes, it's fixable) if AT LEAST $1mm is donated to known non-sanctioned entities which are 50% Ethereum core devs @protocolguild 25% @zachxbt 25% legal defense of @rstormsf and @alex_pertsev OR @fund_defi I will…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

There's a crazy amount of news today: -Mango exploiter now exploiting Aave -CZ FUDing Coinbase then backtracking -DCG Barry Silbert letter I'll give a tradfi take on the DCG/Genesis situation. I'll try to keep it as simple as possible, and tell you what is likely to happen next🧵

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/ BTC ETF closing update and thoughts total volume 1.85bn GBTC is 52% of vlm GBTC -1% NAV IBIT +.6%, FBTC +.75% Net outflows -70mm vs -500mm on Friday GBTC, IBIT, FBTC are 90% of total vlm. They look like the clear winners by vlm and liquidity.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

13/ If you liked this, please give a like and retweet. If there's enough interest, I'll share specific strategies to take advantage of some of the many opportunities right now. Best of luck, and instead of dwelling, let's focus on what's next.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

10 days

Buy $ETH. That’s it. That’s the tweet.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

@HsakaTrades I agree and broke it down quickly here:

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

4pm btc etf update ~4.5bn total volume Half the volume was GBTC GBTC ~1.5% discount All others ~1% premium give or take Create redeem cutoff time is 6pm, so the providers are allowing “T-1” creates. All slippage is passed along to MM’s so this is not gamble.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/ @EricBalchunas has been a great follow throughout all the BTC ETF news, and he's spot on with most things. Can't wait until a large ETF MM'er hires him. However, this one is incorrect, but understandably so. These nuances are how all the top MM'ers make so much money A🧵

Eric Balchunas

@EricBalchunas

5 months

$IBIT inflow tame at $111m, but the data is delayed, rest of the $1b in volume will show up in tonight's flow #. Also check out the % prem at 16bps. Fidelity was -4bps. Rest tight too. That's great, this was a worry of cash creates (wide prems) but APs, mkt makers crushed it.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

5/5 I will fully disclose the critical flaws in Ethena and the fix (yes, it's fixable) if AT LEAST $1mm is donated to known non-sanctioned entities which are 50% Ethereum core devs @protocolguild 25% @zachxbt 25% legal defense of @rstormsf and @alex_pertsev OR @fund_defi I will…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/ Strongly agree with this analysis. Note that BTC ETF has been a HUGE success even if inflows are less than expected. The amount of liquidity and volume show how much institutional interest there is. I don't think anyone expected $2bn+ a day in volume. Keep in mind many

DonAlt

@CryptoDonAlt

5 months

Not gonna lie, the ETF event played out significantly more bullish than I expected We're down a bunch but every passing day it looks more like a dip to buy and less like mindless speculation If sentiment shifts slightly bearish, it's a strong buy IMO

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

2. Coinbase is making ~20bps for every Create AND Redeem. Must be nice to be the only "trusted" and "legitimate" US crypto exchange. These fees are insanely high. (I put those words on quotations so don't argue)

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

4 months

🚨PSA🚨 I don't know who needs to hear this but @ethena_labs is fundamentally broken. You can and may lose all your capital in $USDe in the future. Not only is USDe not a stablecoin, it is NOT a synthetic dollar. USDe is a structured product that has one specific investment…

G | Ethena

@leptokurtic_

4 months

Some comments circulating on the positioning of USDe as a stablecoin Want to be clear: we have explicitly moved away from the branding of the product as a stablecoin since October last year where I acknowledged this publicly with @CampbellJAustin

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

4. Shameless plug but follow me on DeBank for more alpha. I also give away money consistently with lucky draws.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

17 days

Congrats to Ethena on passing $3bn on $USDe! They have successfully waited long enough for my offer to fix their protocol disappear. They actually compare themselves to UST 🤣. Eventually we’ll see a fastest to zero chart vs UST.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

3. Coinbase earnings may look quite good when they report Q1'24 if BTC ETF volumes sustain to the high end. This also depends on when in-kind create/redeems become available. Sources tell me Blackrock etc. are all adamantly working on this.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

Amazing how fast BTC ETF flows have changed. GBTC is currently trading at the same premium as IBIT. If buying sustains through EOD, we could see the first inflows into GBTC. Keep in mind it has lost 52.7% of its BTC this year. Nonetheless, GBTC inflow could be a bullish signal.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

2022 predictions: 🧵 1. CT finally comes to general understanding that all L1’s are competing for SoV (aka currency, monetary premium, etc.)

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

BTC spot ETF volumes have been very positive and impressive today and Friday. We should see ~200mm inflows tonight. The discount on GBTC has been around ~-.15% all day. IBIT premium around .35%. How will BTC price do if we get 200mm inflows per day through ETFs?

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

Respect to @lemiscate for really calling out how reckless Maker is being. @RuneKek couldn’t be more tone def. “It’s not important who or how a decision is made”, Rune. By Rune’s hand, DAI will die…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

Think I will turn off CT next few days. Everyone posting 1 day delayed GBTC outflows as breaking news. Everyone still chasing bogus on-chain data. Everyone focused on GBTC while ignoring the main thing driving BTC price at the moment. This is how they take your money.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/Does anyone know why Celsius has been selling 10k or 14k ETH every day in the new year, except for this Friday? Does the absence of selling this Friday mean it's finally over? Also, why are they selling? I thought they were delivering ETH/other tokens back to customers.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

This will repeat with Ethena. I’ve been saying that all the smart people know why Ethena is critically flawed, just like they knew about Terra, and they’re waiting for the opportune time to short. All the loud defenders are the ones invested and hoping to dump on you.

Zack Guzmán

@zGuz

2 months

In the Do Kwon/Terra vs. SEC fraud trial, the defense team included deposition from Evgeny Gaevoy, the co-founder of crypto trading firm Wintermute as proof of a "shorting attack" Gaevoy admits to shorting the Terra ecosystem despite getting a 300K LUNA loan to be a market maker

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

BTC ETF update: Spreads collapsing. ERF MMers are getting more efficient. GBTC -1.25% discount IBIT et all +.5% premium 500mm total volume GBTC 50% of volume

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

Since people don't read: There is no upfront payment required! All I ask is that they give their word to paying a bounty donation IF what I have to say is significant. Ethena has NOTHING to lose. It's up to you, the public, to hold Ethena accountable to their commitment.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

🚨Breaking I am being told that Merrill Lynch now allows trading in BTC ETFs! However, clients must be HNWI worth >= $10mm and must sign an attestation on risks etc. Reminder: The rules are designed to restrict access to investment opportunities for the masses. They are gated…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

12/ TLDR: SBF gave Alameda his FTT tokens which were used at FTX as collateral and the BS numbers match up with the $5-6bn hole. No one else is on the hook. We can get a sharp rally back when Alameda is done selling assuming no one else is insolvent from prices being down so much

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

11/ UNLESS there is another FTX in hiding (😬This is definitely possible). However, if no one else is insolvent (big IF), there is a bull case to be made that when Alameda's liquidations are over, we can have a sharp rally back. FTX customers basically lose.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

Keep in mind some are swapping their BTC into the ETF, so not all is net buying. I think there was little net buying through ETFs overall due to profit taking in GBTC, and limited access to BTC ETF’s from many brokerages. Vanguard needs to open up. People need to see the big…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

3/ I fear the team at @ethena_labs will just push quickly with TGE so they can cash out and it will be “decentralized” and not their problem. That is how it appears atm whether true or not. Please retweet and like to bring awareness and push insiders to put safety ahead of greed

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

11 days

Massive BTC ETF inflows yet muted price action. Why? Simple. Someone has been rotating out of spot BTC into BTC ETFs to not have to worry about custody. Look at the ETFs that had large inflows and look at the % of inflows by volume. This is the most sensible conclusion. Is…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/ BTC ETF closing update GBTC -.3% IBIT +.5% FBTC +.4% GBTC still half of all volume so net flows were flat. Spreads continue to compress. It seems MMers getting more efficient every day. ETHE reached -18.5% disc at the wides. I rotated a lot of my GBTC to ETHE. Pray for me.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

BTC ETF closing update GBTC -.5% discount IBIT +.4% premium ETHE -15.5% Large closing block trades after the close on GBTC inflating volume numbers. Spreads keep narrowing as more MMers are stepping in to compete. Still feels very constructive. ETHE took a beating today.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1. ETF MMers need to make more to cover the execution fee and slippage. Maybe 20-30bps on EACH side. This is why we see such a large discount and premium for all BTC ETFs (generally 300bp spread between GBTC and other BTC ETFs). Follow updates here:

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

BTC ETF update 9:40am ~240mm total volume GBTC 41% of volume IBIT 32% FBTC 15% GBTC NAV -1.9% discount IBIT +1.25% prem FBTC +1% prem Slow start in volume. "Net inflows" of 40mm so far, but it's very early. Discount/premiums not materially changing. ETHE discount wider -12.5%

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

An anon Milady account with 8 figures on one wallet announces a credible threat to a new stablecoin and is awaiting a bug bounty program to share. Meanwhile, Maker apes in 600mm while claiming everyone misunderstands the risks lol This is why no one takes crypto seriously

Rune

@RuneKek

3 months

The risk of the crypto perp basis trade is massively misunderstood and mispriced I think the number one reason for this is the mistaken belief that the crypto collateralizing the trade has to be held on centralized exchanges But it doesn’t, the collateral is held with…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

I see a lot of people complaining that they didn’t get the “yield” that Pendle site promised when they redeemed their PT’s. Everyone is confused because they ban anyone like me that inquired earlier. BTW their argument for calculating this way is weak. In tradfi, the yields are…

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

Did you know that Pendle's APY calculation assumes you can compound at the same rate and frequency to show a larger number? I got banned from Pendle's discord for just mentioning this as potentially misleading. Glad to see crypto is open to intellectual discussions.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

4 months

GBTC trading a premium all day. Will we finally see GBTC inflows?! Insanity… I think the recent BTC ETF volumes are beyond what most bullish people expected. We don’t know if it will sustain, but i also know it’s very hard for most people to grasp exponential growth.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

Did you know that Pendle's APY calculation assumes you can compound at the same rate and frequency to show a larger number? I got banned from Pendle's discord for just mentioning this as potentially misleading. Glad to see crypto is open to intellectual discussions.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

If you’ve followed me and read anything I’ve said, then you know this is not true. BTC is just moving from GBTC to IBIT, FBTC etc. for the most part.

The Wolf Of All Streets

@scottmelker

5 months

There are hundreds of millions of dollars in #Bitcoin being sent from grayscale daily to coinbase to be sold. Insane, legitimate supply being dumped on the market. And $BTC remains stable. Pretty incredible.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

@ercwl So, ftx expanded the money supply of $btc. Now, they’ve contracted it, and all those that thought they had $btc actually have a donut. If they want $btc exposure, they need to buy it back… short term bullish or does everyone just give up?

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

2/5 Now, I give you a glimpse into how Ethena has been falsely advertising itself to the public as a synthetic dollar (aka stablecoin) with the aim to pump their token price. This is driven by the perceived high demand in the market for a decentralized stablecoin. In reality,…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

I had to re-shake my magic 8 ball. Inflows should be closer to 300mm tonight. As GBTC discount narrows, there will be less shares redeemed as a % of vlm than in the previous week. Adjust accordingly

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

I have a magic 8 ball and it tells me that BTC ETFs will have another ~200mm inflows tonight. Calling it before market even opens.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

Right now, I’m long a lot more ETH than BTC. I think BTC chops. Retail inflow will likely pick up as people see these big headline “inflows” that ignore GBTC redemptions. However, crypto natives will dump BTC into retail buying and move to buying ETH. I’m not selling ETH. NFA

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

GBTC traded around -.30% discount for most of day but may have printed high into the close around flat to NAV depending on the official 4pm btc price. IBIT/FBTC were around .20-.30% for most of day but closed a bit higher as well. Someone bought btc etf’s on the close

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

4 months

BTC - a short story on reflexivity: 1. Asia buys o/n to front run US ETF flows 2. US sees BTC price up and buys BTC ETFs while Asia dumps on buyers 3. Seller takes a lunch break and price wicks up to $64k before falling back within ~30mins 4. US inflows larger than expected so…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

Spot BTC ETFs had ~250mm inflows yesterday. My magic 8 ball says we’ll have about the same, 250-300mm inflows again tonight.

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

I had to re-shake my magic 8 ball. Inflows should be closer to 300mm tonight. As GBTC discount narrows, there will be less shares redeemed as a % of vlm than in the previous week. Adjust accordingly

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

1/ FTX and Alameda are insolvent. Alameda has been in the process of liquidating and cleaning up its balance sheet. This all started with a leaked balance sheet from CoinDesk:

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

13/ TLDR: @BendDAO needs to shorten liquidation window otherwise they will be in a bad debt death spiral if there is significant enough bad debt accumulated or floor prices don’t recover.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/ BTC ETF Closing update: GBTC NAV -.5% IBIT +.5% FBTC +.2% ~2.3BN total volume. GBTC was 53%. Net outflows -130mm ETHE NAV -14.3% Continued selling of GBTC. We should once again see >500mm redemptions. The amt of vlm remains steady over $2bn/day which is quite impressive.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

The founder of Ethena DM’d me 8hrs ago to hear my concerns and criticize me and hasn’t responded since. Then he expedites airdrop. Max grift. I said this is exactly their plan in the tweet below. 2nd link is my response to Guy.

Ethena Labs

@ethena_labs

3 months

We are excited to announce the first step in decentralizing the Ethena protocol with the launch of: $ENA

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/ If this is correct, then the bulls can rejoice in that $1bn supply is out of the way, the market absorbed this selling pretty well, and there is abundant liquidity to sell size fairly quickly. However, the bears will note that volume still remained high today and GBTC

CoinDesk

@CoinDesk

5 months

SCOOP: @FTX_Official sold about $1 billion of @Grayscale 's $GBTC since #bitcoinETF approval – explaining a large chunk of its outflow. @IanAllison123 reports

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

7/ But it would actually make a lot of sense. SBF gave his FTT tokens to Alameda and possibility lent 292mm of FTT tokens as well. Then they took a large portion the 5.82bn FTT tokens and used it as collateral at none other than FTX! FTX is taking their own tokens as collateral!

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

25 days

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

10/ Please give a like, retweet, or follow me if this was helpful. I will try to post more if this is helpful to the CT community. Stay safe!

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

3/ Note: I think ETH is an even better buy if it hits $2k. It'll be so obvious in hindsight that $2k ETH was a generational buying opportunity with current market context. NFA

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

Took profits here. Still holding large spot bags of eth and btc. Rationale is Iran/Israel clearly appears to be a non-factor, and I think all tradfi knows this. That means equity sell-off has been for other reasons. That scares me some because it’s more likely smart money…

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

I missed the bottom but bought some doge (.15) and ftm (.66) on this dip. Still own eth and btc. Yes, there is risk of escalation, but all signs point to this being the end of it. Iran telegraphed the strike as retaliation for the embassy attack and communicated that they find…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

So, I have earned enough to retire and not fight trolls on the internet, BUT I have decided to have an elaborate prank where I spend hours of my time fudding a protocol in which I have ZERO stake in Ethena (In fact, I got the ENA airdrop through Milady) because I have nothing…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

1/ 🧵Entitlement and incentive issues in the crypto community (Must read for founders) Entitlement problem: People are expecting others to help for free. Relying on altruism is why the industry constantly has multi-million dollar hacks and multi-billion dollar product failures.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

There’s a lot of misconceptions out there even from HFT MMers. 1. Data on inflows don’t pass the smell test. When that is the case, question it. Will write a thread later on why inflows/outflows are incorrect when i have time this wknd. 2. Disproving “people are waiting for

wishful cynic

@EvgenyGaevoy

5 months

Part of the reason why we don’t see massive redemptions in gbtc yet - people are waiting for spreads to converge. Doesn’t make sense to lose 3 years of difference in management fees on execution

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

10/ So, what does this mean? Alameda will keep liquidating whatever they can from what they have left. The market has been front running their liquidations thus far. However, once Alameda is done, there won't be any forced sellers...

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

2/ to @ProtocolGuild @zachxbt and legal defense of tornado cash devs. Ethena and @leptokurtic_ have not responded. $1mm bounty is chump change for you guys and for a protocol with $1.3bn tvl. I receive no benefits. I’m only trying to prevent another epic collapse.

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

Supporting this benefits the community and saves us from another disaster. I really see no downside to doing this. If I’m full of shit, nothing gets paid. I just end up rugging myself.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

There will be some large creates that don’t show up in the volume. So, predicting creates will be difficult for first day. My guess is that we will see ~3.5bn in total creates and 1.5bn in redeems from GBTC.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

Time for ETH szn -LRT’s are giving 30%+ apr -airdrop szn -ETH burn -eip 4844 soon -ETH ETF

DonAlt

@CryptoDonAlt

3 months

$ETH update: Shit breakout, time to look for shorts IMO

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

6/ Clearly, SBF gave his FTT tokens to Alameda to “fill the gap”. Here is what I think is the most important part. So far, most crypto institutions are coming up saying they do not have material losses from exposure to FTX/Alameda (yes, we’ve heard this many times now lol🙄)

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

1 year

Wow! @BarrySilbert actually tells all in his shareholder letter and Q&A. (Well, not quite...). Barry confirms what I wrote previously, but with a different spin on it. I will try to keep it simple and also, look at it from Barry's perspective. 🧵👇

DCG Updates

DCG and Barry Silbert File Motions to Dismiss NYAG Lawsuit Published 9:30 am EST, Wednesday, March 6, 2024 Today, DCG and Barry Silbert filed motions to dismiss the meritless civil complaint filed...

dcgupdate.com

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

I have a magic 8 ball and it tells me that BTC ETFs will have another ~200mm inflows tonight. Calling it before market even opens.

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

BTC spot ETF volumes have been very positive and impressive today and Friday. We should see ~200mm inflows tonight. The discount on GBTC has been around ~-.15% all day. IBIT premium around .35%. How will BTC price do if we get 200mm inflows per day through ETFs?

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

1/2 I’m receiving criticism from @leptokurtic_ , @cobie , and others for engagement farming “in bad faith”. I accept the criticism but want to respond to the hypocrisy. If we spend a little time looking at @ethena_labs @MacroMate8 timeline, it’s full of engagement farming! If…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

Wow! GBTC is opening around -2bp discount. IBIT +30bp and FBTC +15bp. Redemptions are going to drop like a rock if this holds all day.

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

spot BTC ETFs had only +38mm net inflows yesterday. This is less than expected due to premiums going down so a smaller % of vlm for IBIT/FBTC are turning into creations. Good news is GBTC vlm and disc continues to decrease. I expect a slight uptick to ~100mm inflows tonight

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

13/ I will never DM for money, I've never done any paid promotions, and I'm taking time out of my weekend to share some of my knowledge and expertise with you. If you enjoyed this thread and would like to see more, please repost and like.

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

1/ 🚨Deep-dive🧵on BTC ETF volume and flows through 1/19/2024: I hope that your takeaway from reading this will be to think for yourself instead of trusting CT influencers, and further enhance your skills to evaluate data on your own. Please repost and like.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

5/ Remember, $LUNA had a peak market cap of around $40bn and $UST around $18bn. We saw some big losses from 3AC, Celsius, Voyager, etc. but it didn’t quite add up to all the big losses seen here and in the all of crypto as a whole. Well, now we have one answer for that: Alameda

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

6. $LUNA explodes early in 2022 but then $UST and $LUNA face a devastating bank run that leaves $LUNA down 95%+. Fully un-collateralized algo stable coins are flawed.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

5 months

BTC ETF update 9:40am ~240mm total volume GBTC 41% of volume IBIT 32% FBTC 15% GBTC NAV -1.9% discount IBIT +1.25% prem FBTC +1% prem Slow start in volume. "Net inflows" of 40mm so far, but it's very early. Discount/premiums not materially changing. ETHE discount wider -12.5%

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

17 days

VB stepping into the ring. Bullish for $ETH

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

17 days

Celestia is simply the best of centralized L1’s where insiders own more than 50% of tokens. If fit 21 were to pass, $TIA would belong to Gensler. Ironically, Celestia only thrives with regulatory uncertainty.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

@0xDeFinci @ethena_labs @ProtocolGuild @zachxbt Appreciate it but I’m no saint, just a Milady

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

2/2 Here is my response to @leptokurtic_ DM today. I want to share my perspective given the criticism. “Hi Guy, You did reach out first, and I appreciated that. I also appreciate you engaging once again. Understand a few things from my perspective. I have no incentive to help…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

@Mariandipietra I don’t want that role… happy to be out of here once bounty program is launched and donated properly. We’ll see if Ethena actually follows through

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33

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 months

I have been early to Ether Fi (all over my debank timeline) despite not being on any cap tables. I researched the project and made an unbiased decision to park my bags here. So far, that is paying off. Meanwhile, CT follows all these KOL influencers who are shilling because they…

ether.fi

@ether_fi

2 months

Security and liquidity have always been the top priority for us. Given the instability in the LRT space over the last 12 hours, we want to reassure everyone that the restaking and LRT space are sound. We’ve received many inbound questions from our users and want to share some…

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

6/ Let's understand my incentives here. 1. I can say nothing and wait for the opportune time to short USDe and make millions of dollars. 2. I can tell everyone and make nothing while spending my time answering a lot of questions. So, why choose 2?

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

28 days

ETHE NAV discount got to -6% intraday and hanging around -7%. It closed yesterday at -11.8%. Someone large has been vwap buying all day. The annualized return on this is very good if you delta hedge it with futures and pick up extra carry.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

3 months

They’re paying me off to stop shitposting Ethena; how they’re launching a bug bounty program AFTER launching their token allowing insiders to cash out from their shard campaign participation and hedge out with perps while not publicly disclosing material risks omitted from docs.

Ethena Labs

@ethena_labs

3 months

Based on community feedback, the criteria of the airdrop on April 2nd has been adjusted to also include @miladymaker holders in the distribution Details in the following tweet:

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31

TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

9/ TLDR: Genesis borrowed from depositors to fill the hole in their balance sheet by using DCG as a go-between entity. Genesis likely filing for bankruptcy (I think creditors will eventually get most of money back), and DCG will survive with a black eye and marred reputation.

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TardFiWhale.eth

@TardFiWhale

2 years

3/ So, if we strip out FTT, FTX basically has just over $9bn of assets, $8bn of liabilities, and about $1bn in equity. This is a lot of leverage with little room for error in a volatile crypto space. Just as importantly, where did all this FTT come from?

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