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"
#EU
will not easily forgive Serraj for inviting
#Turkey
. After Haftar is pushed out of Tripoli, EU will seek to empower alternative factions+reform govt+seek to get Turkey-
#Libya
agreements rescinded. There will also be Turkey-Russia v EU
rivalry over who brokers negotiations"
The International Interest is a political risk firm advising how politics affects markets in the Middle East and Africa.
"المصلحة الدولية" متخصصة في تقديم الاستشارات حول كيفية تأثير التطورات السياسية على الأسواق في الشرق الأوسط وإفريقيا.
#Japan
#Asia
"
#Iran
will 'retaliate' without retaliating. It will want to respond without igniting war. US+Iran want to negotiate. But Iran will not come to table if it feels publicly belittled. So US will tolerate minor skirmishes as long as they do not humiliate Trump"
#QassemSuleimani
"
#Turkey
has caused everyone to act in
#Libya
by threatening to send troops and become a power broker. It has spurred everyone to action not because everyone suddenly wants to solve the conflict; but because everyone wants to make sure that Turkey does not become the major power"
Speculation is rife that Iran is taking advantage of its rapprochement with Saudi to intensify its bullying of Kuwait over access to gas fields.
Here is what you need to know in today's Coffee Brief:
We regularly produce short 2-3 minute videos that can be accessed (for free) on our youtube page (). Do subscribe/watch/share.
The latest video is on
#UAE
concern over having to make concessions to its allies on what it considers important interests.
"The reason the
#Houthis
attacked
#AbuDhabi
airport is because there has been a shift in
#UAE
policy in
#Yemen
from actively avoiding clashes with the Houthis to actively targeting them.
But the more important question is why the UAE appears to have changed its policy in Yemen"
3- Chad President in the UAE
The last time Chad's President visited the UAE, planes started taking off from Abu Dhabi with weapons hidden amongst 'humanitarian' aid to be delivered to Hemedti's rebel militia in Sudan.
()
2- Bin Salman in unusually long stay in Oman: was he meeting the Houthis?
(A day after we sent this brief out, a Omani delegation went to Sanaa to carry a Houthi delegation to Riyadh where negotiations have commenced over a ceasefire.)
()
"
#UAE
never wanted to reconcile with Qatar. They were dragged into it by
#SaudiArabia
's Crown Prince. It is in this context that while Saudi-
#Qatar
ties are improving rapidly, Abu Dhabi and Doha continue to fiercely wrestle with one another"
In this week's briefing:
*In
#Libya
, France hits Serraj from behind
*Coup in
#Kosovo
?
*
#Somalia
's army finally opens up land route
*
#Erdogan
's fears over economy spill over COVID-19 measures
*
#SaudiArabia
picks up pace
Subscribe (for free) and get yours:
*Thread*
Some highlights from our Coffee Brief last week ():
1 - G20 Summit in India:
- Ukraine
- Pakistan-Saudi relations
- African Union
- Saudi-Israel economic integration
- Unhappy China
- Are BRICS members US or China allies?
What's behind the oil price war between
#Russia
and
#SaudiArabia
? Why have both countries significantly increased production? And what is at stake?
@SALHACHIMI
breaks down the geopolitical context in two minutes.
#SaudiArabia
's MBS believes winds are changing favourably:
- Macron pays a state visit
- Biden chasing dialogue (oil price)
- US Congress eases up (arms sales)
- 'positive' coverage of 'desert raves'+bikini beach
-
#Erdogan
coming to Riyadh to sue for peace
#2MinuteBrief
Amidst rumours of King Salman's fury at
#UAE
normalisation and
#SaudiArabia
's role in it, we explore to what extent the King retains control and influence over the kingdom and to what extent Saudi policies are aligned with his thinking.
Access briefing:
Backlash in Washington over UAE role in Assad normalisation. But Abu Dhabi believes Biden's options are limited... 👉
-------------
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Iran has no intention of retreating from
#Yemen
,
#Iraq
,
#Syria
, or
#Lebanon
. Instead, all signs indicate that Iran's allies will be allowed to further entrench themselves.
Here's why
#SaudiArabia
has agreed to allow that in exchange for a truce
'Bin Salman sees himself as destined to be the main player, while Bin Zayed sees the relationship as one of equals. Bin Salman believes
#SaudiArabia
is the big brother while Bin Zayed wants to assert a relationship where there is no big brother.'
'Bin Salman and Macron struggle to agree on
#Lebanon
,
#Ukraine
,
#Russia
, and energy prices. But the primary purpose of Bin Salman's trip to Paris is not to see him or agree on any of these issues…'
Get your coffee brief today:
Thank you to everyone who joined us last night at Brussels Press Club with
@Salhachimi
,
@Talha_Kose1
,
@MauriGeri
,
@tekdemir_ipek
in what was a lively (+frank) discussion regarding the challenges in pursuing multilateral solutions in the Med. Follow us for updates on future events
"Many OPEC economies were battered by low oil prices over last decade. It makes sense therefore that they would want to protect high oil prices. However, for
#SaudiArabia
, the surprise cuts are just as much driven by politics as they are by economics"
'The case of the arrest [and subsequent release] of the TikTokers is more a reflection of the natural confusion among local authorities in
#SaudiArabia
. Do they implement the law? Or do they set it aside in the spirit of Bin Salman's directives?'
👉
You have already seen what can be delivered in the two-minute videos (and we hope you have found them useful). Now go beyond with the Coffee Brief; all the nuance+context of the events that matter for the price of a cup of coffee a week.
Subscribe now 👉
"If the US were to withdraw from
#Iraq
,
#Iran
would find itself in an awkward position as it faces a mass protest movement directed at its allies in Parliament, at the government in
#Baghdad
that it controls, at its militias, and at its very presence in Iraq itself".
Algeria's President Tebboune told France's Le Figaro in an interview that the choice was between "war with Morocco or suspension of ties".
Why are tensions sky-high between
#Morocco
and
#Algeria
?
'Many Tunisians will be surprised that Saied has gone "where no one dared to go before him" in arresting Kamal Ltaief, and the arrest may well temper criticism of Saied from his supporters of having achieved "nothing" for them since seizing power'
Our Briefing went out today.
Subscribe and receive yours
In today's issue:
- US scrambles on oil price war
- Serraj, losing hope, gambles in
#Libya
- Putin offers Erdogan attractive proposal in
#Syria
- Houthis nervous as rumours spread
#Yemen
Tensions between Egypt and Saudi:
'Saudi+UAE have impressed upon Sisi that he should push the army to loosen its grip and sell assets to them. Sisi however is....' 👉
----------
It's time to subscribe to the coffee brief👉
'From
#Somalia
+
#Eritrea
, Sisi who controls Suez+Alexandria, to
#Libya
's Benghazi+Tripoli,
#UAE
wants to establish itself as a major maritime power. If Haftar seizes
#Tripoli
, Libya would fall under UAE orbit, completing chokehold on
#Turkey
in the Med'
In this week's briefing:
*Haftar cuts off HoR's attempts to undermine him in
#Libya
*Did
#SaudiArabia
consider backing Separatists bid in
#Yemen
?
*Al Shabab repelled from Barawe amidst conflicting reports from SMISOM and Somali army
Subscribe for free:
"Armed with US recognition of his 'elections' in which only 8.8% of Tunisians voted, Saied has ramped up his crackdown and tossed a former PM in jail, issued an arrest warrant for another, and officially charged the main opposition leader with 'terrorism'"
#Tunisia
Will be speaking in Brussels on 23rd October at MEDC alongside
@andreas_krieg
and Julien Barnes-Dacey on what role Europe can play in the Middle East crises.
Details below. Still spaces so do RSVP and attend:
Why
#Saudi
and the
#UAE
withdrew aid from
#Jordan
, forcing announcement of new domestic economic policies, that unleashed pent-up societal frustration in the form of widespread protests.
Will be on Aljazeera English 'Inside Story' today at 18:30 London time discussing the OPEC summit in Algiers and Trump's pressure on members to bring oil prices down.
'Therefore, its only current viable option is a new FSA set up and trained in Northern Syria in the areas of Afrin and Manbij alongside Turkey. Accepting such a proposal would temper relations with Ankara, and create an effective s…
'Meanwhile, Bin Salman's ally [
#UAE
's MBZ) stays away and does not even send his PM in his stead, almost as if recognising the lack of substance in Xi's visit, and almost in disapproval at the unnecessarily lavish display of defiance by MBS'
#SaudiArabia
A pleasure to have presented on the geopolitical implications of the Gulf Crisis in Brussels yesterday with Qatar's Ambassador to the EU and NATO H.E. Abdulrahman al-Khulaifi, Allison Wood, Dr Ian Black and Debeuf Koert. A lively and engaging discussion.…