Selva Baziki @SelvaBaziki Twitter profile

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

We estimate that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey may have intervened as much as $66 billion in FX markets this year up to July 22nd to support the lira. That is about $10 billion a month. We show that monthly interventions went up again beginning Dec2021.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

7 months

TCMB'nin arka kapı müdahalelerinin Ağustos ayı itibarıyla $226 milyara çıktığını hesaplıyoruz. Bu ortalama aylık $11 milyar müdahaleye tekabul ediyor. 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

11 months

TCMB'nin arka kapı müdahalelerinin Aralık 2021'den Mayıs sonuna $199 milyara ulaşmış olabileceğini hesaplıyoruz. Bu ayda yaklaşık $12 milyar demek. Seçimlerin olası etkisi ile Nisan-Mayıs ayları toplamının $52 milyara ulaştığını tahmin ediyoruz. 1/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

We estimate the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has intervened as much as $75 billion in FX markets Jan-Aug. That is $9.5 billion/month. Interventions seem to have slowed down over the summer, partly due to tourism income. More @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

TCMB'nin arka kapı müdahalelerinin Aralık 2021'den bu yana $177 milyara ulaşmış olabileceğini hesaplıyoruz. Nisan ayında yüksek girişler ve altın rezervlerindeki erime ile müdaheleler $30 milyarı aşar seviyede zirvede. 1/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Turkey’s Rubles-for-gas scheme may be drastically different from Europe’s. We show that Turkey will likely receive a credit line from a Russian bank in Rubles, and use this to pay for the gas. Here is how the mechanism may look like:

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Turkey's Net Errors and Omissions reached a record $28.3bn Fin. Minister Nebati said tourism was a "key" factor in an interview with FT TurkStat's data update tells a different story - we estimate revisions account for only $6.4bn That leaves $22bn inflows still a mystery

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

We estimate the CBRT’s back-door currency-market interventions since December 2021 may have reached $128 billion. There’s a sense of deja vu - this estimate matches the claims made by the main opposition party in 2021 on the CBRT’s 2019-2020 currency market interventions. 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

We estimate CBRT has intervened by as much as $108 billion in FX markets in 2022. That is $9 billion a month. 2022's interventions peaked in September after the first rate cut of the bank's 500 bps easing cycle. 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

11 months

TCMB net rezervlerindeki (swap hariç) düşüş ($9mlr) ile net akım ($190mlr) farkı müdahale miktarının $199 milyara çıktığını gösteriyor. Lira bu sürede dolar karşısında %40 üzerinde değer kaybetti ve yakın zamanda en düşük seviyelerini gördü. @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

10 months

TCMB'nin Haziran ayında arka kapı müdahalelerini durdurduğunu hesaplıyoruz. Toplam müdahale miktarı Mayıs ayı ile aynı seviyede kaldı ($199 milyar). Müdahalelerin sonlanmasının da etkisi ile lira Mayıs sonundan günümüze USD karşısında ~%23 değer kaybetti. 1/5

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

10 months

- Kurumlar vergisi artışı (5 %puan) - KKM uygulamasının TCMB'ye devri - Cifte MTV (ilave 38.7 myr) ile kamu çalışanarına uygulanacak ortalama %73.5 maaş artışının fazlasıyla karşılandığını hesaplıyoruz. Net etki bütçe açığını %0.2 puan geriletebilir.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

We calculate this by taking difference between net inflows (rediscount credits + export revenues + FX-protected deposits - sales to SOEs - gold revaluation) and the actual change in net reserves ex. swaps. Read more on the @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

One year report card: Turkey Economy Model fails on 4 targets. The model was supposed to yield: - higher investment: investment is shrinking YoY and (for two consecutive) QoQ, - current account surplus: the 10-month deficit of -$38.2 bn is nearly the largest in 10 years, 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Turkey's housing and stock market boom may have helped reduce FX demand, lifting some of the pressure on TL. But, it may worsen the cost-of-living crisis and drive prices beyond fundamentals. BIST100 delivered 62% real returns in 2022, beaten only by housing market's 63%. 1/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

5 months

Turkey's inflation war is real, but investors stay put Here is a look at 8 indicators from our analysis with @tomasz_noe For more: 1. Policy Pivot Works as Risk Premiums Ease

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

We estimate CBRT has intervened as much as $98 billion in FX markets Jan-Oct. That’s about $10 billion/month. We see interventions have accelerated in the last two months, following policy rate cuts. Read more on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

7 months

KKM'den çıkışları teşvik eden regülasyon değişiklikleri ilerisi için bir zorluğa işaret ediyor. Büyük rezerv kaynaklarından birinin kurumasıyla, aynı hızda devam eden müdahaleler TCMB'nin hali hazırda negatif olan net rezervlerini (swap hariç) daha da negatife itebilir. 2/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

5 months

We estimate the CBRT's stealth currency market interventions at $256 billion Jan 2022-Nov 2023. Monthly interventions slipped to average $7.5 bn in the last 3 months from $11.7 bn previously. We see this related to the recent policy push away from FX-protected deposits. 1/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

7 months

Veri yetersizliğinden hesaplarımız bazı varsayımlara dayanıyor. Ihracat geliri devirleri düşükse, bu daha düşük müdahale hacmi demektir. Diğer taraftan YP kaynaklı KKM oranı daha yüksekse, müdahale hacmi daha fazla olabilir. @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Bu TCMB'nin swaplar haric net rezervlerini Aralık 2021 seviyesinin $2.8 altında -$68.4 milyara düşürdü. Buna rağmen, yakın zamanda dolar karşısında lira en düşük seviyelerini gördü, kısa vade oynaklığı ise tüm para birimlerinin üzerinde. @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Turkey had strong growth numbers in 2Q22. But, we estimate that the government’s credit-led growth-at-all-costs approach has lowered Turkey’s potential growth. Capital accumulation will remain the largest driver of potential growth, albeit at much lower rates.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Turkey quakes' humanitarian toll is rising and its impact on the economy remains unclear. Our initial rough estimates show that public spending on the quake - including rebuilding - could reach 5.5% of GDP. 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 months

We calculate the total impact of CBRT's credit cap measures akin to a 230-bps policy rate hike. Tightening through regulatory changes, however, is not a perfect substitute for an actual hike. The overall impact on financial conditions is ambiguous. Let's unpack: 1/5

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

We estimate the CBRT's back-door interventions since Dec 2021 may have reached $177 billion. April's interventions exceeded $30 bn on high inflows and as the bank tapped its own gold reserves. 1/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Turkey’s September CPI inflation comes in at 83.5% but a growing number of basket components are doubling up prices. More than 25% of the basket components have prices that increased by more than 100% over the year based on aggregated basket data from TUIK.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

9 months

TCMB Perşembe günü yılsonu yeni enflasyon tahminini açıklayacak (eski %22.3). Aralık enflasyon tahminimiz - lira değer kaybı - vergi ve fiyat politikaları - %34 asgari ücret artışı ile %55 seviyesinde, riskler ise yukarı yönlü. @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

10 months

Inflation hit AKP more than President Erdogan - We find regions hit hardest from cost of living crisis showed the largest fall in votes for AKP. - Interim wage/pension hikes may alleviate some inflation pain and help tilt the scale back in AKP's favor in local elections. 1/4

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

11 months

We estimate the CBRT's stealth interventions since Dec 2021 through May may have reached $199 billion. That's nearly $12 billion a month. Interventions likely got a boost from elections: April-May total reached $52 billion. 1/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

10 months

We estimate the central bank halted its stealth interventions in June. Total remains at $199bn. The effect? Lira is down by ~23% vs USD since May. The phasing out of support *before* lira has backing from a higher policy rate suggests weak lira could be a policy choice. 1/4

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

4 months

Three risks could lead to higher inflation, weaker lira and erosion in sentiment in Turkey. 1- Outsized public spending could fuel inflation: -Boosting demand before March vote and higher taxes after. -Taking 2023 as a benchmark, that could add 7ppt to year-end inflation. 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

4 months

Turkey Central Bank to Shift Focus from Rate Hikes to Liquidity Tools With its rate hike cycle nearing its peak (45% in our view) we identify four likely steps the CBRT can take to tighten financial conditions and drain excess lira liquidity. Some likelier than others: 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 months

Turkey gets 1st rating upgrade in a decade on policy flip, but it needs to do more to achieve investment grade. That means -tight monetary policy -less FX borrowing -higher FX reserves It will also need stamina — it took nine years to move from B+ to investment grade in 2012.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

10 months

Hayat pahalılığından daha fazla etkilenen bölgelerde AKP oylarının CB Erdogan oylarına nazaran daha çok düştüğünü (2018-23 seçimleri arası) buluyoruz. Ara dönem ücret/maas zamları enflasyonun etkisini hafifleterek yerel seçimlerde ibreyi AKP lehine çevirebilir. 1/4

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

In Turkey, real estate remains the only TL asset with positive real returns. Investors seeking to preserve their wealth against runaway inflation drive up demand. Read more of our global housing deck on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 months

TCMB’nin kredi büyümesine yönelik adımlarının 230-bps politika faiz artışına denk olduğunu hesaplıyoruz. Ancak, - enflasyon beklentilerinde bozulmaya, - mevduat ve - tahvil faizlerinde düşüşe sebep olabilecek bu adımların finansal koşullar üzerindeki net etkisi belirsiz.

Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 months

We calculate the total impact of CBRT's credit cap measures akin to a 230-bps policy rate hike. Tightening through regulatory changes, however, is not a perfect substitute for an actual hike. The overall impact on financial conditions is ambiguous. Let's unpack: 1/5

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

11 months

In addition to a rate hike, we also see CBRT dialing back policies inhibiting the transmission mechanism in the short run: -the effective cap on lending -regulation linking lira deposit share to bond holdings led to an anomaly of deposits rates exceeding lending rates.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Benefits for Turkey - lower hard currency demand - ensure gas access Much discussed in Turkey: with this scheme no need for TRY-USD exchange on the spot market now. Read more of our analysis with @ZiadMDaoud and @x1skv

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Turkey's banking regulation effectively translates to: - higher deposit rates (to increase lira share of deposits) - a cap on lending rates. The result: difference between lending and deposit rates is negative. That sets banks to take a dent on their lending. 1/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Our model assigns less than 5% chance to Turkey's inflation meeting official forecasts (CBRT's 60% and government's 65%) by Dec. We forecast a year-end inflation of 75%. Read more on our work together with @asokol_econ and @ZiadMDaoud on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 months

TCMB’nin bir sonraki adımı artış mı indirim mi? Swap piyasası: Ç2’de faiz artışı (yesil) Ekonomist beklentileri: Ç3’te indirim (mavi) Bloomberg Economics baz senaryosu Ç4’te faiz indirimi öngörüyor (sarı) Ancak maliye politikalarınin seyri Nisan ayında faiz artışı getirebilir

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Russia-Ukraine conflict could push Turkish inflation even higher through rising energy and food prices. Lower tourism revenues could yield a weaker lira and further inflation. Read more of our analysis on the impact on Turkish inflation on @TheTerminal .

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Our estimates show an expected change of $100 billion in reserves, against an actual change of about $2 billion. We take CBRT’s intervention as the difference between expected and actual changes to arrive at $98 billion. Read more on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

8 months

CBRT starts unwinding the costly FX protected deposit scheme. 1) Regulatory changes will see deposit and lending rates increase - How high? Ideally compensate deposit holders for inflation (~61%) - Effective cap on lending rates (~37%) will not allow that 1/4

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

6 months

Ekim enflasyonunu beklerken: TCMB yıl sonu enflasyon tahmini - ardışık iki yıldır - %65'te, OVP ile uyumlu. Bloomberg Economics 2023 (%68) ve 2024 (%42) tahminlerimiz TCMB tahmin aralığı üst bandında. 2. Çeyrekte zirve beklentimiz %73.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

4 months

TCMB'nin odağı faiz artırımlarından likidite adımlarına geçebilir Sıkılaşma döngüsünde zirveye yaklaşan MB (tahminimiz %45) hem finansal koşullarda ek sıkılaşma sağlamak hem de lira bolluğunu sterilize etmek için dört olası adıma yoğunlaşabilir. @TheTerminal

Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

4 months

Turkey Central Bank to Shift Focus from Rate Hikes to Liquidity Tools With its rate hike cycle nearing its peak (45% in our view) we identify four likely steps the CBRT can take to tighten financial conditions and drain excess lira liquidity. Some likelier than others: 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

The CBRT sees year-end inflation at 22.3% - for the third time in a row. That is significantly lower than our call of 43%. We think the central bank's call is overly optimistic on the slowdown in its forecasts - and here is why: 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Turkey quakes' devastating humanitarian toll is still rising, and our early estimates show the disaster may shave off about 1% of GDP. To capture the impact of the quake, we look at the sectoral hit from the 2011 quake in Van relative to a benchmark of provinces. 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

6 months

Saygı, minnet ve şükranla anıyoruz

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

7 months

We estimate the CBRT is back at its stealth interventions, taking the sum since December 2021 through August to $226 billion. This follows a brief pause in June, and takes the average intervention pace to $11 billion a month. 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

What does $22bn mean? We estimate these mystery transfers cover more than 2/3 of the current account deficit this year. Read more of our analysis on @TheTerminal through:

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

6 months

Yaşasın Cumhuriyet! Nice yüzyıllara…

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Turkey inflation fell sharply in Dec to 64.3%, but price gains remain broad-based. 15% of the 144 basket categories had prices double over the year. None of the categories printed a price decline for a 13th consecutive month. Read more @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Menkul kıymet tesisi ve zorunlu karşılıklar gibi uygulamaların piyasa yansıması: - artan mevduat faizleri - sınırlanan kredi faizleri Kredi ve mevduat faizleri arasındaki makas bankacılık sektörünün kredi verme iştahını törpüleyebilir. 1/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Rate cuts will increase the pressure on the currency and that in turn will feed into higher inflation. The lira was down 29% against the dollar in 2022, second only to Argentina among peer EMs. And that is despite back-door interventions we estimate at $108bn. For more:

Bloomberg Middle East

@middleeast

1 year

“The rate cut will likely increase the pressure on the lira, which will curtail the expected deceleration in price gains," according to Bloomberg Economics's Selva Bahar Baziki

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Unorthodox policy, widening CA deficit, high public & private FX debt, weak reserves. What is stopping another lira crisis from happening? - inflows under net errors and omissions - central bank interventions Read more on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

9 months

Two of CBRT's recent changes concerning commercial loan rates: Good news: they support monetary tightening Also good news: could help reverse the anomaly of lending rates falling behind deposit rates. Bad news: they come in non-transparent ways compared to a rate hike. 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

For how much longer can the CBRT intervene in FX markets at this pace? Reserve adequacy metrics are below standard safety levels -> no room. But, compared against past lows -> room through 2Q23 -- that is until elections. Read more on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Turkey’s productivity lags behind peers, and its own past. Productivity gains could boost potential growth in the future. But Turkey’s low R&D spending suggests the trend is set to continue. Read more on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

6 months

Argentina's economy flags a policy flip is coming, regardless of who wins the runoff next month. Lessons from Turkey and Brazil post election policy pivots? Intention, ambition, and execution matters. A tepid, slow pivot may not work - could even backfire. 1/4

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Turkey’s central bank to announce its year-end inflation update on Thursday. Past 3 years’ July estimates stayed below actual inflation. Together with @ZiadMDaoud we don’t expect this track record will improve this time. Read more on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

If not tourism, what could these inflows be? Fin. Minister suggests flows from nearby countries, or of assets previously held aboard. Increasing tax burden scheme will ebb the latter. That leaves inflows from nearby countries, including Russia as the main contender.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Average monthly interventions picked up pace in 2023. We calculate positive inflows from FX-protected deposits in February, after two months of no estimated contributions. That follows the CBRT’s policy changes in late January and may support inflows going forward. 2/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Our estimates show an expected change of $120 bn against an actual change of $11.7 bn. We take the difference to arrive at $108 bn. For lack of data, we exclude CBRT's other FX sources such as property sales to foreigners. This potentially makes our number a lower bound. 2/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

10 months

Bu durumda ödemeler dengesini iyileştirecek mekanizma olarak geriye yerel paradaki deger kaybı sebebiyle ithalatın kısılması kalir. Yüksek bir maliyeti de beraberinde getirir: hızlanan enflasyon ve hanehalkı bütçesi üzerinde artan baskı. @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

7 months

TCMB'nin anket katılımcı listesini güncelleme duyurusu güzel bir tesadüfle IMF'nin hafta içinde yayımladıgı enflasyon beklentileri ve para politikasi dinamikleri incelemesini takip etmiş oldu. Metin icin:

World Economic Outlook, October 2023: Navigating Global Divergences

The latest  World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has...

www.imf.org

Merkez Bankası

@Merkez_Bankasi

7 months

Piyasa Katılımcıları Anketi Katılımcı Listesinin Revizyonuna İlişkin Basın Duyurusu:

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

CBRT's decisions on Jan. 26 increase the appeal of FX protected deposits which may increase its reserves and allow for higher intervention space, without denting net reserves. Read more of our analysis on @TheTerminal 3/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

30 days

Enflasyon verisi TCMB tahminlerini çok iyimser kılıyor. Tahminlerin ima ettiği ortalama aylık enflasyonlar: TCMB (yıl sonu %36): %1.9 TCMB Anket (yıl sonu %44.5): %2.6 Bloomberg Economics (yıl sonu %43): %2.4 Referans: 2019-2023 mevsim. arındırılmıs seride ortalama %2.7 idi

Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

30 days

CBRT inflation forecast looking increasingly optimistic. Average monthly inflation needed for the remaining 9 months: CBRT (36% year-end) : 1.9% CBRT Survey (44.5% year-end): 2.6% Bloomberg Economics (43% year-end): 2.4% 2019-2023 Average: 2.7% More:

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Turkey's November year-on-year CPI inflation printed at 84.4% - below October's 85.5%. But, despite the fall in rates, inflation will still remain high, and likely broad based. In October, nearly 30% of the basket categories more than doubled their prices.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

10 months

Fikir ithalatı kısıp ihracatı artırmak yolu ile cari dengeyi iyileştirmeyi hedefler. Ancak Türkiye'nin ihracatındaki yüksek ithalat bağımlılığı (MB araştırmasına gore %45) rekabetçi fiyat üzerinden elde edilecek avantajları kısıtlayacaktır. 4/5

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Turkey June headline inflation comes in at %78.6% - - exactly in line with our estimates. Increases were widespread across sub components, and imply higher inflation in the second half of the year.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Saudi Arabia’s $5 billion deposit in March with the central bank (through SFD) is another move that can create additional room for further intervention. Read more of our analysis @TheTerminal 3/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

The CBRT's dash to single-digit policy rates have taken the country's real returns deeper to -76.5%. That is the lowest among peer emerging economies, and almost 7 times lower than the next contender. Read more on our take @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

What Next? - Investment may increase (not b/c the model) given CGF incentives, - But this & expansionary fiscal steps will keep demand high, worsening current account and inflation. Loose monetary policy will weaken the lira. 3/3 More on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

- stronger lira: the currency was down 29% in 2022 against USD, 2nd worst performance among peer EMs after Argentina, despite CBRT interventions, - price stability: annual inflation reached a 24-year peak, and is broad-based. 2/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

CBRT cut rates by 50bps - but we don't think the bank is done easing. We expect more cuts before the elections. This will weaken the lira and, together with expansionary fiscal policy, feed into higher inflation. Read more on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Turkey’s real estate remains the only main TL-denominated asset with positive real return,surpassing USD and gold yoy. This is why house prices keep rising: 127% growth in April. Will this go on after BRSA’s new rules? Read more on the @TheTerminal :

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

The CBRT will announce its end-2023 inflation forecast in an hour. The bank's track record suggests a small increase in the range of 22-25%. But there is also a change the bank will lower its forecast closer to 20%. More on @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

3 months

The CBRT holds inflation forecasts steady. End-2024: 36%. Bloomberg Economics: 42%. Median CBRT survey: 42.1%. CBRT forecast range upper bound: 42%. End-2025: 14%. Bloomberg Economics: 23%. Implied rate from CBRT survey: ~25%. CBRT forecast range upper bound: 21%. 1/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

9 months

The CBRT will renew their year-end inflation call on Thursday (from 22.3%). We see the rate at 55% on: - rapid slide in lira - government revision to prices and taxes - 34% min wage hike (adds 2.4ppts) Risks are to the upside. More: @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

@Alaattin_Aktas Yıllar içindeki gelişimi şu şekilde özetledik Alaattin Bey:

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

5 months

With the estimated $90bn support from FX-protected deposits coming to a close, we expect interventions to continue at this lower pace This may see the CBRT's net reserves (-$63.7bn in net FX position in Nov) gradually improve. For more @TheTerminal 2/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Where will Russia park its excess oil revenue? We show that Turkey is the only large country that satisfies Russia's three criteria: - politically neutral, - free capital flow, - currency negatively correlated with oil. Together with @ZiadMDaoud and @x1skv on @TheTerminal

Alex Isakov

@x1skv

2 years

p.s. How We Quantify the Three Criteria? Political neutrality: We use the decree of the Russian government on unfriedly states: Capital-account openness: We use the IMF's index: FX Correlation with oil price: CORR <GO>

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

CBRT’s second 100bps rate cut comes despite a 24-year peak inflation above 80%. The decision stands out against a backdrop of global tightening, inflation adjusted interest rate dives deeper to -68%. We see the bank prioritizing growth over price stability going forward.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

11 months

A new administration = opportunity for policy reset. That calls for: - market-friendly faces appointed to key posts - clear commitment to CB independence and inflation targeting - policy rate hikes - unwinding of alternative tools Read More @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Turkey's presidential elections are just over a month away, and the race is still on. Polls showed a sharp shift in March following February's disasters and the main opposition block naming their candidate. Read more on our election deck @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

A main opposition block win in Turkey may mean more prudent fiscal policy. The block's May 6 statement pledges a committte to identify any hidden burdens on public purse - implying cautious spending to offset additional costs. Read more @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Happy to share our joint work titled "Sovereign portfolio composition and bank risk: The case of European banks" with Maria J Nieto and Rima Turk-Ariss is available in the April issue of the Journal of Financial Stability. Access our work through: 1/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

We estimate the likely short-run public spending may reach 2.6% of GDP. A longer term perspective including housing construction takes our estimates to 5.5% of GDP. 2/3

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

7 months

@dieworkwear One question: Where is the seatbelt?

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

10 months

Bu, rezervlerde artışı mümkün kılabilir. Nitekim, TCMB net rezerv (net swap) pozisyonunda Mayıs-Haziran ayları arasında yaklaşık $11 milyar iyileşme görüyoruz. Miktar tam da TCMB aylık müdahale miktarına denk. 2/5

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

10 months

TCMB'nin politika sıkılaşma süreci tamamlanmadan - yani faiz desteği hedefe yakınlaşmadan- müdahaleleri durdurması liradaki değer kaybının bir tercih olabileceğini ima edebilir. Yüksek dış finansman açığı veren ülkelerde yerel para değer kaybı bir politika tercihi olabilir. 3/5

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

2 years

Economic conditions in Turkey warrant a steep rate hike. Core inflation is the highest since 2004 and expectations are unhinged. Despite this, we do not expect the central bank to change the policy rate at today’s meeting. Read more on the @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

How much farther will house prices fall in Sweden? Our model predicts houses were still 12% overvalued at the end of 3Q, and we may see a peak-to-trough fall of 20.2% by mid-2023. 1/4

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

11 months

We calculate $190 bn net inflows into reserves while the actual change is -$9 bn, implying intervention volume of $199 bn. Still, the lira is down by more than 40% vs the dollar since Dec 21, recently hitting an all time low. More @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

3 months

CBRT Inflation Report Day ! We see a split chance between no change and small revision up in the central bank's forecasts. What does this mean for the rates outlook? Here is our cheatsheet to navigate today's communication: For more: @TheTerminal

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

Other traditional savings options printed negative real returns. This in part was due to CBRT's policies leaving TL deposits defenseless against inflation, and interventions rendering the inflation hedge from FX ineffective. Read more @TheTerminal 2/2

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

5 months

With its 2nd anniversary approaching, let's take a look at Turkey's FX-protected deposit scheme. It was introduced to help arrest the lira's slide after a series of rate cuts in the face of rising inflation and top economic personnel changes saw the lira plummeting in Dec 2021.

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

30 days

CBRT inflation forecast looking increasingly optimistic. Average monthly inflation needed for the remaining 9 months: CBRT (36% year-end) : 1.9% CBRT Survey (44.5% year-end): 2.6% Bloomberg Economics (43% year-end): 2.4% 2019-2023 Average: 2.7% More:

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Selva Baziki

@SelvaBaziki

1 year

This puts the CBRT's net reserves net of swaps (Apr 28) at -$68.4 bn. That's $2.8 bn lower than Dec 2021. Still, relative to USD, the lira hit an all time low recently, and its short term implied volatility topped all other currencies. @TheTerminal

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