I was mentored by the founder of CANSLIM® and co-authored one of the proprietary “Model Books of Greatest Stock Market Winners.” at William O'Neil + Co.
Today is the first day in over a year that the NASDAQ, S&P 500, Russell 2000, & DOW are all trading above their long-term downtrend lines. This is good.
As the major indexes are making new lows on the day, make note of which industry groups and stocks are not. The stocks holding above their short term moving averages & lows for the day as the market breaks below theirs are telling you something.
Every day that you have the discipline to keep your hands out of the cookie jar and avoid the chop until the environment is exactly right, adds exponentially to your psychological & emotional capital. There are NO prizes for being the first one to start buying!
#ManageRisk
Remember, risk management first!
This means staying patient, disciplined, and selective, and not worrying about what anyone else is doing around you.
You do you and always keep in mind that “buying right” is your number one defense.
Not great action today. We started strong but then fell on higher volume.
However, one distribution day is no big deal if we see leadership continue to hold & develop. We also got a gap fill.
The next few days are critical, do we hold or see a cluster of distribution days?
$AMD from last week's Top 10 Report, broke out of a 28 week cup with handle base on enormous volume after reporting a 250% increase in qtr. over qtr. EPS and a 99% increase in qtr. over qtr. sales!
Two important keys for Risk Management:
Before you take any trade, have a definitive plan if it goes against you. Stop losses should be both tight and logical.
Also, position sizes should reflect market conditions and recent performance. Listen to feedback from the market.
We buy on fundamentals & technicals, but we sell only on technicals, because earnings can continue to grow at a rapid pace for as much as 6-8 quarters after a stock has already topped & dropped 70% or more.
There is never a hurry to buy stocks. Give leadership time to develop and make itself clear. Remember, we want to see at least a few groups of high-quality, high relative strength stocks, with big leadership potential establish themselves and lead the way higher.
#ManageRisk
I've found my best periods of performance occur when I've recognized when the deck is hot, meaning the market is with me.
When the deck cold it's best to wait until the M Factor is strong again.
#Patience
Stan & I have been friends for a long time. It was a pleasure to have him on the first episode of the TraderLion podcast. I hope you all enjoy this interview.
📢Big Announcement!📢
We are launching the TL Podcast 🎙️
🔥Interviews w/ Wall Street Legends, Hedge Fund Managers & more!
Our first guest is none other than Stan Weinstein, the author of Secrets to Profiting in Bull & Bear Markets.
👍Like & Retweet!🔂
During Market corrections the Relative Strength Line is the number one indicator I pay attention to.
Focus on stocks where this line is in an uptrend, or better yet, making highs ahead of price as the stock is moving up the right hand side of a base.
Some market environments will clean up your mistakes, while others exacerbate them. The current environment is of the latter. It's one of those times Bill would often say, "they will either wear you out, or scare you out." Remember to manage & preserve your mental capital here.
I am seeing Launchpad setups all over the place. Some are tighter than others; some are further along. Regardless, this is typically a big qualitative plus when it happens.
Getting immediate traction is super important for me to gain confidence.
If I feel I’m spinning my wheels and not making progress, I know to get out of my own way until I’m thinking clearly again.
The market’s leadership remains extremely bifurcated, which is why we continue to see such a big divergence on the major indexes. Until enough constructive, new leadership overpowers the lingering weakness of the old, it will likely remain extremely difficult to make progress.
Regardless of how you label the market at this juncture, the line of least resistance is back to the upside. This does not mean you must be long, or in a hurry to buy stocks. Remain patient, don’t force trades, stay disciplined & manage your risk! The money will follow.
Seeing pockets of strength as we got a follow-through day by the technical definition.
$BMY $LLY $MRK $AMD $ON $AVGO $SMCI $IRTC $ITCI $AMPH $AZPN developing along with the existing Oil/Gas, Coal, and Fertilizer groups which have been the leaders.
Anchored VWAP is simple, intuitive, and it flat out works. If you use technical analysis to analyze stocks, futures, commodities, etc. this book is a must have. Phenomenal book
@alphatrends
!!
Quite a few leaders which drove the market to record highs day after day for the last several months have begun to break key support on big volume. Also, the super wide, loose, volatile action being exhibited by the leaders is not at all healthy, or constructive. Both red flags.
Have patience, listen to the feedback from the market if you are putting on test trades.
Keep in mind, we are still under a declining 50 sma and 23 ema on the major indexes.
I'd rather be a week late to a rally than a week early.
I have been beyond impressed by
@RichardMoglen
since well before I ever had the pleasure of meeting, and being interviewed by him.
So, to say that I am extremely fired-up to have him join the team, is gross understatement!!
Big announcement...
I am extremely excited to say that I have joined the core
@TraderLion_
team!
One of our top goals for 2021 will be to produce invaluable educational content for traders through the TL YouTube channel and Website.
Channel Link: ⬇️
The most powerful leaders with the very best fundamentals have already exploded higher and are currently extended
From a shorter-term perspective, we still feel that most will be best served by waiting for the current leaders to set up again
Patience, watch for the pullbacks
Two important keys for Risk Management:
Before you take any trade, have a definitive plan if it goes against you. Stop losses should be both tight and logical.
Also, position sizes should reflect market conditions and recent performance. Listen to feedback from the market.
I noticed clear rotation into the biotech, pharma, and genetics stocks today, as well as quite a few setups.
$ARCT $AKRO $CPRX $EXAS $HIMS $IMCT $LEGN $SWAV will be covered in this weekend's TL Report.
A FTD day can occur any day next week, so it's encouraging to see a broad-base of high quality leaders already building sound bases & making worthwhile progress. The health & breadth of the market's leadership is what ultimately determines the sustainability of any new uptrend.
So far, a surprising number of names on my long watch list are either up for the day, or down a good bit less than the market. Medical/Biotech and Solar stocks clearly continue to exhibit the most strength. Focus there.
I've been incredibly impressed with Oliver and his trading style. His performance speaks for itself. This will be an amazing learning experience that you don't want to miss!
Well, price volume action on the indexes today was very constructive and encouraging, especially along side simultaneous extremes in the VIX, the put/call, and the McClellan. This isjust the first big positive sign that a bottom may be forming. Now, we wait for a FTD…
#Patience
What to look for near Market Bottoms w/
@RossHaber_
✅ Large Hammer candles an undercut of levels
✅ New Leadership emerging
✅ Volatility Dampening
Full video 🔗
The health & breadth of leading growth stocks remains in fine shape. Actionable setups are still harder to find, which isn’t necessarily bad. As I run screens, update lists & set alerts, I notice many leaders are already in the middle of a move, or still need time to base build.
Only the NASDAQ is trading below its 50-DMA & 65-EMA. Is this just another violent shakeout, or this will turn into something more serious? Watch rotation closely as it takes shape. It often gives some early clues as to where to look for new leadership to emerge.
#WatchTheLeaders
The market may still technically be in an uptrend as per the S&P 500's FTD, although the overall environment has been far from smooth, or cooperative. If you are a position trader, then the current environment is not for you. The deck isn’t even warm, no less hot!
#Discipline
The environment has clearly favored larger-cap, liquid names as the market has rallied recently. Stocks like $AMZN, $AAPL, $GS, $UNH, $HD & $MCD have been the place to be, many of which reside on the $DOW, which should come as no surprise given its undeniable strength lately.
The sheer strength and number of setups in the biotech group $IBB $BBH $ARKG alone is off the charts! Here's a few that catch my eye $IMMU $HZNP $SGEN $LEGN $RVMD $NVAX $MGNX $MRNA $MNTA $PRVB... There are tons more in this group alone!
Without fresh, healthy, broadening leadership to guide the market higher from here, the odds of a new, sustainable uptrend developing are highly unlikely.
In this video
@RichardMoglen
& I discuss the current market conditions and I walk through my process of using the Up on Volume screen to track rotation and identify potential true market leaders.
I hope you find it helpful. Have a great weekend!
It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t get the deferred-gratification gene, you’ve got to work very hard to overcome that. - Charlie Munger
The information Oliver presented in today’s webinar was second to none. He has a fresh, new perspective and way to look at things that any trader out there, long or short-term cannot afford to miss. Outstanding job today
@1charts6
!! I’m already looking forward to the next one…
Narrow your focus to the following:
1. Emotional Control
2. General Market Direction/Trend
3. Health and Breadth of the market's leadership
Everything else is noise.
The right side of $RDDT's IPO base has formed on well above-average volume over the last five trading days in a textbook manner. A lower volume pause here would be ideal.
I decided to post my interview with Jim
@Upticken
a little early so make sure you give it a watch
We cover a lot of ground including making the most out of the next bull market 🐂, trading true market leaders🚀, & trading psychology 🧠
👍 Like & RT! 🔁
Due to the S&P 500's powerful move higher last week, its Jan. 4th distribution day fell off its count because it has now rallied more than 5% from its close that day. Hence, the dist. count now stands at 4 days on the S&P 500 and 1 day on the NASDAQ, which is not concerning.
Narrow your focus to the following:
1. Emotional Control
2. General Market Direction/Trend
3. Health and Breadth of the market's leadership
Everything else is noise.
The semiconductor names have been breaking recently, hence $SMH looks like it will close below its 50-DMA and 65-EMA for the first time since the beginning of the year. This in turn will put added pressure the NASDAQ 100 or $QQQ. So, pay close attention and exercise caution.
@dennisc230
@RichardMoglen
Within these groups there should be multiple liquid, leadership quality stocks with strong earnings growth and fundamentals & ideally the N in CANSLIM.
Without these groups developing and breadth expanding it's difficult for the rally to sustain itself.
@dennisc230
@RichardMoglen
For the qualitative aspect I always look for 2-3 leadership groups developing preferably from traditional growth areas.
I want to see strong relative strength from these groups with many launching pad setups as they start moving up the right hand sides of their bases.
@dryan310
I really appreciate you jumping into the conversation this morning & making this heard. I have had a strong and incorrect bias against cyclicals and commodities, even when they we’re clearly telling me otherwise. What you shared with us all today changes everything for me. 🙏
The wild swings in the general market don't make things easy, which is why I stress the importance of healthy, broad-based leadership. Fortunately, I still see a ton of setups out there as money continues to rotate from one group of leaders to the next.
#JustWatchTheLeaders
▶️Identify Your Strategy & Short Term Trading Setups
Check out this excellent video ft.
@Trader_mcaruso
✅ Identify your Goals & Manage Risk
✅ 5-1 R/R Ratio
✅ 3ema Shakeout Setup
✅ Kicker Candle Setup
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Have you been following your plan, your rules and your stops without emotion? If not, figure out why and make a change. Rinse and repeat. Risk control and discipline are extremely important and should always be a work in progress no matter how much experience one has.
Have you been following your plan, your rules and your stops without emotion?
If not, figure out why and make a change.
Rinse and repeat.
Risk control and discipline are extremely important and should always be a work in progress no matter how much experience one has.
$NET, from this weekend's Top 10 Report broke out through the $87.15 entry area on 21% more volume than average, which also qualified as a pocket pivot volume signature.
Solid action from the leaders on the last couple Top 10 Reports $CHGG $CRWD $MGNX $OKTA $PCTY $TSLA and more, thanks to a very cooperative general market. Have a great long weekend everyone!
Volatility will likely remain high with the election around the corner and the thick of EPS season getting underway. $NFLX $SNAP today after the bell. However, my watch list is still full of fundamentally sound, high growth leaders from across the top performing industry groups.
It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t get the deferred-gratification gene, you’ve got to work very hard to overcome that. - Charlie Munger