Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors Twitter profile

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

LEADING #Indicator falls to 0%. Not a good #sign no matter how you spin it.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

4 months

During the Dutch tulip bubble in the 1600s, the demand for tulip bulbs got so large the #Amsterdam Stock Exchange started trading bulbs. The #NYSE and #NASDAQ will now start trading #Bitcoin . History repeats…

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

Anyone who doesn’t believe there’s a bubble isn’t paying attention. Growth valuation now more extreme than during Tech Bubble (Chart: Trahan Macro)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

The last time #petroleum #inventories were this low #Energy outperformed #Tech by 115 PERCENTAGE points over the subsequent 5 years! (Chart: M. Rothman – @CornerstoneOil )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

If there is indeed a #recession looming it would be the first one ever correctly forecasted by economists’ consensus. (Chart: TheDailyShot @SoberLook )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

11 months

This is soooo cool. #AI gets real!!! Wait. This cover story is from …1998?!?! You gotta love manias. (Shoutout to our friend @DougKass )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

10 months

#Commodities might actually be making a bottom right as the economic consensus forms that disinflation is back.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

Why does anyone doubt there is a #bubble ? Empirical Research Partners shows that long-duration #equities are the most overvalued…EVER…AND BY A LOT!!

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 months

Inflation is a lagging indicator (so is the #Fed ). So while it’s good inflation is heading toward 2% the LEADING indicators are accelerating. The #inflation story might not be over.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

How can this possibly not be a #bubble ??? TSLA market cap is bigger than the #market cap of 14 other major global #auto companies combined. (RBA owns some of these companies in various managed portfolios or as members of ETFs)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

Long-duration #equities are the most overvalued….EVER! 2000’s valuation looks like nothing compared to today’s. (Chart: Empirical Research Partners)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Energy the next growth story? Last time the #Energy sector’s FCF Yield was this attractive was around the #TechBubble and Energy then outperformed for a decade.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

The Fed’s preferred #inflation measure (remember the #Fed doesn’t eat or drive) shows the Real Fed Funds Rate still resembles the worst levels of the 1970s despite #rate hikes.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

10 months

When #liquidity and speculation drives a sector’s performance it’s usually a bad omen when liquidity starts drying up but the #sector ignores it. (Chart: @BankofAmerica Global Research)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

Dreams of a quick #Fed #pivot have become a nightmare. 7 of 9 important #inflation measures are now HIGHER than a year ago. (Chart: Atlanta Fed)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

If #Powell starts hiking rates by 100+bp then it might be appropriate to compare him to #Volcker . Right now the difference remains glaring.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

If this isn’t the sign of a #bubble , then what is???? Growth remains about the most expensive EVER versus value. (Chart: BofA Strategy @BofA_Business )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

10 months

#Economists clearly don’t realize it but one would hope the #Fed knows their favorite measure of future #inflation troughed back in December and is currently surging.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

9 months

“Dr Copper” again proves to be a better economic forecaster than most economists. A year ago 90% of #economists predicted economic #recession but Dr Copper correctly said otherwise.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

During bubbles consensus is there is nothing worth #investing in other than #bubble stocks. Compared to 2000’s bubble today is the bubble of all bubbles. (Chart: BofA)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

The #Fed has “cornered” the long end of the curve and caused a #bubble in long-duration assets. 10-Year most overvalued EVER vs Nominal #GDP .

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Small Biz anticipated #price increases continue to skyrocket and now higher than 1970s worst. Good to know the #Fed is right on top of this.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

9 months

The gross misallocation of #capital remains one for the record books. For all the talk of a broadening #stockmarket , the reality is the market is as narrow and speculative as ever.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

5 months

Fund Managers are the most underweight #commodities relative to #bonds since 2008. From 2008-2018 S&P 500 #Materials outperformed Bloomberg Agg by ~750bp/year. (Chart: @BankofAmerica Global Fund Manager Survey)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

First #economists said #inflation was transitory. Then they said it was peaking. Neither has so far been true and the #PPI is now approaching its 1974 high.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

ARKK vs #NASDAQ : With all apologies to Gertrude Stein, a bubble is a #bubble is a bubble. (Chart: The Daily Shot @soberlook ) *RBA does not hold ARKK in any of its portfolios.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

10 months

Charts that support the many studies citing working from home has NOT improved #productivity . Note more people play #computer games at work than at home though! (Chart: @WSJ )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Good chart to put the current #volatility into perspective. This time isn’t different. (Chart Merrill Lynch via Daily Shot @SoberLook )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 months

The current #leadership is VERY speculative. Momentum investing is by far the most extended in the 20-year history of the GS High Beta Momentum #Index .

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

While everyone argues about “are we in a #recession ?” it’s probably more important the #GDP report revealed yet another #inflation measure showing the #FED IS HISTORICALLY BEHIND INFLATION.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

11 months

Forget the #lags this week’s #Fed meeting could be the one history remembers. Pausing with #Core #CPI > 5%, Real Fed Funds effectively 0%, and financial #speculation rampant???

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Energy has a #FCF Yield of 10.1% almost 2.7X that of #Technology . No one cares. #Energy isn’t sexy like cute wiener #dogs in the metaverse.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

Good news becomes bad news: The #PPI has absolutely collapsed the past 2 months. That only happens when there’s substantial economic weakness.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

History says the #Fed needs a meaningfully positive #RealFedFundsRate to slow the #economy . Today’s #PCE data says the Real Fed Funds rate is only +5bp. More work to do.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

4 months

Of course there are risks to investing in #China but those risks are well known and well discounted. China now sells at the cheapest valuation EVER relative to global #equities . 50% discount to global equities.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Don’t be too quick to write commodities’ obit. Global #oil demand has been strong despite #China ’s lockdown. #Demand is likely to strengthen as they re-open. (Chart: M. Rothman – @CornerstoneOil )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

5 months

Despite the consensus economic #forecast for landing/recession, there’s never been a #recession with ISM New Orders ( #LEADINGIndicator ) at 55.5.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

Consumer #inflation expectations soar to 7%. The Fed isn’t actually doing anything, but they are doing a great job contemplating their #monetary policy navels.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

4 years

#M2 growth highest in history…by a ton. Either nominal #growth is going to explode or Milton Friedman shouldn’t have won a Nobel Prize. (just kidding)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

6 years

When the curve was flattening consensus was it’s bad for stocks. Now rates are rising consensus is that’s bad for stocks too. Let us know when rates are good for stocks.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

#US had a savings surge during 2020’s #COVID lockdown that led to pent-up spending. Similarly China’s savings are now bulging during lockdown and pent-up demand likely lies ahead. (Chart: #EVRISI via The DailyShot)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

This might be #cyclical but hiring is starting to mirror our longer-term strategic focus on real productive assets. (Chart: TheDailyShot @SoberLook )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

7 months

Magnificent 7 #bubble now comprises a record 30% of the market. Meanwhile, the list of other attractive #investments seems be both historically broad and historically attractive. (Chart: @BankofAmerica )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

8 years

25-34 employment highest since 1989. Basements will soon be for storage and ping pong again.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

11 months

#ISM manufacturing #NewOrders has never been this negative without already being in a #recession . BUT 2Q23 #GDP is so far tracking about 2%. Strange times for sure.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

The last time the St Louis #Fed Price Pressure gauge was this high #inflation averaged 4-5% for the next two years. Does two years define “transitory”?

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Paul #Volker showed the only way for the #Fed to truly fight inflation is by forcing #recessions . This Fed is too lily-livered to follow Volker’s path. Take the over on #inflation .

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

The current #housing bubble is starting to make mid-2000’s #bubble seem rather mild by comparison.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 months

Mag 7 fans say the market broadening points to less risk to the #Mag7 . However there is virtually no broadening of the market. Max #diversification remains the key to avoiding another lost decade.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

6 days

Despite the Fed’s eternal optimism on #inflation returning to their 2% target “super core” inflation is actually rising toward 5%. (kudos to @TruthGundlach for noticing)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Some saying #bubble (which they originally said didn’t exist) has now deflated. Post-1999/2000 Tech Bubble people claimed the bubble deflated when #tech #stocks were down 35%. Unfortunately, that was only the half-way point.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

Mike Contopoulos points out #Fed owns 50-60% of 10-12 Year #Treasury market. The Fed has cornered the #market resulting in abnormal illiquidity and accentuated market action.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Before we get too excited about the “hawkish” Fed, let’s realize the #Fed remains historically behind #inflation . The real #FedFunds rate remains near historic lows.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

Investing Rule #1 : Returns are highest when capital is scarce. The #AI frenzy accordingly seems like another mania brewing to lure investors into excessively risky #VC and #growth equity investments.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

Contrary to consensus the #Fed won’t be providing cheap and plentiful #liquidity anytime soon. Consumer Confidence is actually rising despite the #Fed aggressively raising #interestrates .

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 months

I’m going to guess not one person reading this #tweet knew the current economic expansion is as strong as the much-noted #Reagan expansion. (Chart: @BankofAmerica Global Investment Strategy)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

The bull market began in March 2009. 12 years later investors are finally realizing there actually has been a bull market right as the global central bank bartenders start yelling “last call” and turning on the lights.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 months

The #PPI troughed 8 months ago, yet the economic consensus and even the #Fed believes #inflation has been conquered. Forget the forecasts for multiple rate cuts.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

#Default Update: The #US 10-Year #yield now has a #riskpremium vs the #China 10-Year. #Washington DC seems totally unaware they are playing with fire.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 month

Exactly what we’ve been arguing: #Profits growth drives hiring. The easing of the labor markets coincided with a profits #recession but profits are now accelerating. (Chart: The Daily Shot @SoberLook )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

With today’s Core #PCE Deflator the REAL FED FUNDS RATE remains more stimulative than anytime after the GFC! The #Fed won’t stop tightening. Period. Full stop.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Rig counts inching upward but supply/demand still favors #Energy as a great 5-10 year story. Currently it’s #1 sector for #dividend yield AND secular #earnings growth. Secular #growth is actually 2x #Tech ’s growth rate!

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

5 months

After the #Tech Bubble it took 14 years for the NDX just to break even! The Mag 7’s current #valuations seem to point to similar long-term and significant underperformance. (Chart: @BankofAmerica US Equity & Quantitative Strategy)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

The decade of “importing deflation” appear over as core import prices continue to rise faster than core CPI.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

11 months

#Bubbles inherently fuel #inflation because they grossly misallocate capital within an #economy . As such, the #Fed should be sternly paying a lot of attention to the current #NASDAQ speculative burst.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

7 months

It was a bad sign for #bubble stocks in 2000 when retail brokers started to underperform. Today’s similar bubble warning seems even more extreme. (RBA may own mentioned stocks in various portfolios.)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

6 months

Nearly 40% of the average individual investor’s portfolio is now in just 3 #stocks !!! What a colossal change in risk taking from the #bullmarket ’s beginning in 2009. (RBA may own mentioned stocks in portfolios.) Chart: @WSJ

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

#Copper breaking 400 doesn’t sound like a forecast of slower #global growth nor something inciting the #Fed to “pivot” anytime soon.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

10 months

Let’s stop pretending the huge #NASDAQ run is somehow fundamentally based. #Liquidity (the latest surge perhaps related to offsetting #bank failures) is clearly driving speculation. (Chart: CrossBorder Capital @crossbordercap )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

10 months

Valuation is a primary driver of long-term #performance . The Super Mega Caps now sell at roughly 2X the #valuation of the remainder of the #market . Hmmm. (Chart: DailyShot @SoberLook )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Remember when 2% inflation was the goal?

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Jobless Claims (leading indicator) produce another positive surprise as any laid off workers are getting quickly rehired. The #labormarket remains historically tight and the #Fed has a lot…a lot…of heavy lifting to do.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

11 months

Remind me again how “this time is different”…

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

10 months

Please stop the nonsense re #NASDAQ outperformance somehow being fundamentally based. The #liquidity from the most recent #FedPut has simply spurred #speculation in #Tech and also in #Cryptos .

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

Consensus somehow believes #earnings will be healthy despite a significant economic slowdown. It’s highly unusual for the #economy to weaken but earnings accelerate. (Chart: The Daily Shot @SoberLook )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

Core #PCE Deflator hits 3.6%. The last time the 10-year was this overvalued was…gee…1974-75.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

4 months

Consumer #Sentiment posts its strongest one month gain since…2006!!!! Fade the comments about the “terrible” economy.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

The Fed’s favorite measure of #inflation remains VERY elevated. No #Fed #pivot and no return to cheap and abundant #liqudity anytime soon. #Speculators should really stop speculating.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

The hot labor market remains the #Fed ’s biggest challenge. NFIB Small Biz compensation actually went UP!

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

6 months

For those who think we’re in the midst of a #bullmarket please highlight another bull market during which the average stock didn’t outperform cash. #Speculation is narrow. Bull markets are broad.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

Leadership changes as the global #economy changes. Don’t get caught waiting for yesterday’s leaders to re-emerge. (Chart: @CFAinstitute )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 months

People still think this isn’t the #Tech Bubble redux??? $NVDA Market Cap > Entire US #Energy Sector but Net Income a mere 13%. (RBA may own stocks mentioned in portfolios.)

Charlie Bilello

@charliebilello

3 months

Nvidia's market cap is now over $200 billion higher than all of the companies in the S&P 500 Energy sector ... combined. Meanwhile, the total net income of the Energy sector is $147 billion vs. $19 billion for Nvidia. Video:

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

Both investors and the #Fed seem to feel a return to low #inflation is inevitable. But red hot #JoblessClaims (Leading indicator) continue to say fighting #inflation won’t be a cakewalk.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

10 months

Rule #1 of #Investing . ROI is always higher when capital is scarce. You want to be the one banker in a town of a 1,000 borrowers. No scarcity of capital in #Tech land when compared to #energy #infrastructure . (Chart: @GoldmanSachs )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

This time is NOT different. #Inverted #YieldCurves are simply not good for #banks . (Chart: DailyShot @SoberLook )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

Core Capital Goods Orders growing about +10% in no way…NO WAY… supports the “we are already in a #recession ” story. The harsh reality seems the #Fed will be tightening for some time yet.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 months

Consensus is China’s #economy is toast. #Energy demand data continues to refute that belief. (Chart: M. Rothman – Cornerstone Analytics - @CornerstoneOil )

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

2 years

#Credit spreads widen when #profits cycles decelerate. Despite claims “this time is different” it’s happening again. (Chart: DailyShot)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

8 days

Today’s Employment Cost Index is the latest #inflation indicator suggesting the #Fed ’s 2% inflation target could be a pipe dream.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

5 years

People calling for the #Fed to ease but simultaneously saying the #economy is strong. Wait, what? Either the economy is strong OR the Fed should ease. Otherwise you get either #inflation or asset bubbles. Thought we already learned that lesson?

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

10 months

Quite ironic that on THE day that investors think the #Fed will give the “all clear” gasoline futures break out to a 9-month high.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

Healthy #markets are broader markets but so far this year’s market is extraordinarily narrow. #NarrowMarkets reflect either #speculation or #ErodingFundamentals …or both.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

Is the #Fed reading their own Beige Book? The verbiage seems somewhat 70s-like. (Chart: BofA Global Securities)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

I guess #investors believe no one in the #US will ever drive, heat their homes, or need financing ever again. B.U.B.B.L.E. (Chart: BofA)

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

#Default Update: It now costs more to ensure against a US government default than for most major #LatinAmerican countries. How utterly embarrassing.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

Insurance against 12-month default for Guatemala, Colombia, Brazil, Costa Rica, China, Kazakhstan, Greece, Chile, Peru, or Mexico is now cheaper than insuring against US #default . #Washington playing with fire.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

3 years

Something seems very wrong in our society. Thrill-seeking #billionaires who go to #space are celebrated as heroes but #scientists who save millions of lives are vilified.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

29 days

Small Business’s pricing plans often lead the #CPI . The latest NFIB Survey continues to suggest the CPI could be heading upward not downward toward the #Fed ’s 2% goal.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

#PPI cooling but remains extraordinarily hot. The #Fed “Put” needs to be and will be a thing of the past. Speculators still just don’t realize that. Fade the speculative rally.

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Richard Bernstein Advisors

@RBAdvisors

1 year

The #StockMarket is now the most ridiculously narrow since the most extreme point of the 1999/2000 #Tech #Bubble . Is there no growth opportunity in anything other than the “Nifty 3”??????? Of course there are plenty. Fade the hype.

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