BSc MSc
Media Advisor & Senior Operational Meteorologist UK Met Office
Parent to 2 mini daxies
Love running
Views & opinions my own
petagnamarco on threads
To all other weather accounts out there..never feel afraid to post on twitter through fear of receiving harsh, often unjustified comments. If you've got the evidence to support your point your views and opinions are as important and relevant as any one elses 👍
🌞❄🌦🌈🌡🌩🌨☁️
@frankieboyle
Unfortunately Frankie while you're safely indoors thousands of people incl my partner who work in key industries aren't & still need to be able to travel to work, drive supplies to supermarkets, fly cargo planes, operate ships, deliver post, etc etc..all rely on weather forecasts
Just to say a heart-felt thanks to everyone that takes the time to follow me
~3 yrs ago I decided to use twitter as a platform to interact, share knowledge/experiences in an attempt to try & get more people interested in weather
6000 followers later i guess it might be working 👍
Yes of course records are there to be broken...but rarely...and in terms of
#temperature
normally by 0.1 or 0.2 Celsius...to absolutely smash the UK all time temperature record of 38.7C by 1.3 to 2.3 degrees two days running, is absolutely staggering!
Graphics from
@bbcweather
Just wanted to say so proud to work with such a great organisation and such a great team of people..the purpose of the
@metoffice
is 'to help people to make better decisions to stay safe and thrive'
#StormEunice
certainly seems to be successfully putting all this into action
We've now passed the final hurdle in the move back towards lighter days
The earliest sunset was mid December
The shortest day was Dec 21st
And today was the latest sunrise..
All roads now point towards Spring and summer...oh and a more natural in take of vitamin D!!😉
Overwhelming & incredible support from the main runs of both GFS & EC & from all of their ensemble outputs for:
1. An
#SSW
sudden stratospheric warming event to occur in next week or so
2. For a MAJOR event to occur...reversal of
#SPV
#wind
to E'ly
3. For event to be prolonged
😲
The
@metoffice
will start using the reference period 1991 to 2020 as the ‘normal’ for routine UK climate monitoring products in January.
Here's a peek at how average annual temperatures have changed across the UK over the past 4 such reference periods..quite a dramatic warming!
Wow we've been so lucky with the
#weather
here in Wales..could have been in the
#Caribbean
today!..bit warm for the pups walking though
Coastal trek Borth-y-Gest to Morfa Bychan and onto Black Rock Sands
Beaches lovely and quiet
*Worth stressing if you live within the Amber
#wind
warning area widely across England & Wales tomorrow, don't take things any less seriously than if in the Red area
As the accompany warning matrix shows both suggest high impacts likely, just slightly higher confidence in Red*
In this experiment Dr Rob Thompson of
@UniRdg_Met
shows just how long it takes water to soak into parched ground, illustrating why heavy rainfall after a
#drought
can be dangerous and might lead to flashfloods.
@R0b1et
@UniRdg_water
@afneil
Hi Andrew, which Met Office forecast are you referring to exactly?..would love to see it.. I work for the organisation and no forecast I'm aware of was forecasting a sweltering April!
Could be some interesting
#weather
news breaking within the next hour or so....stay tuned in case it happens!...if it does I'll let you know!!...
Will leave you hanging for now !
😂😂
The metoffice issue the highest possible warning level, a very rare RED warning, long before
#StormArwen
's rampage began, with mention of life threatening 80-90mph wind gusts, which WILL severely impact infrastructure, & then you see this...disgraceful & irresponsible reaction..
⚠️
#StormArwen
is turning out to be worse than forecasted. We've seen several incidents of trains striking trees and branches.
For everyone's safety, we're withdrawing services on the routes below for the rest of today:
Dundee - Aberdeen
Aberdeen - Inverness
Inverness - Wick
Couldn't imagine a much better
#weather
pattern configuration for
#coldweatherfans
later next week
EC ensembles showing a mid Atlantic-Greenland high linkage with a northerly straight from the Arctic
Model output needs 👀 next few days to see if the theme continues!
ABSOLUTELY STAGGERING..
In 24 hrs,
#Noru
has strengthened from 50mph to 155mph, now a super
#typhoon
Understand this is among the fastest a tropical cyclone has ever intensified in a day
Predicted 165mph/Cat 5 intensity, gusts 200mph before reaches Philippines in a few hrs!
Don't forget to allow a few extra seconds for the kettle to boil today..the very high atmospheric pressure (around 1048hpa) is likely to have raised the boiling point of water temporarily by around 1C to nearer 101C
😉
🌡📈
Could be interesting summer
Following the
#metoffice
May-July seasonal forecast update May 1st (summer forecast next month), & now ECMWF June-Aug update (all below), if warmth 🔥 is your thing (Marco says jumping up & down hysterically in agreement 🤗😅!)..you could be in luck
Comparisons being made between our Ely airmass coming & the notorious Beast from the E in 2018
Well, although 850
#temperatures
don't always give a true reflection of surface conditions, worth noting in 28.2.18 '850s' were -12 to -15C, & currently forecast to dip to ~-5 to -8C
Some exceptionally low
#temperatures
developing to the E/NE of the
#UK
in the days ahead...daytime highs around -15 to -20C in places...not a million miles away from us
#coldweatherfans
👀
Earlier today there was a major
#SolarFlare
During the flare, a pulse of X-rays and extreme UV radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout centered on South America as below
Source:
1/4
Once again a lack of understanding from sections of media, of how
#weather
model output should be analysed & interpreted, with misleading & irresponsible headlines the result
This misinformation creates fear, panic & is misaligned with credible professional weather forecasts
1st job of the
#nightshift
done...plotting the next 7 days
#weather
fronts that will appear on all our platforms..eg tv, website, new app layout, YouTube, social media, etc etc..
This appeared in the Daily Star yesterday..
Well I've been studying meteorology for over 30yrs, and never come across this gem of a
#weather
cocktail before!
Sounds like a new type of Mc Donald's happy meal!😅
For quite a few runs gfs has been hinting at some significant warming in the stratosphere later this month
The warming heads towards the N Pole, the 10hpa 60N wind reduces quite markedly and the strat polar vortex
#SPV
tries to split
This needs 👀.. it may be on to something
#StormEunice
in its final approach towards the UK this evening
1.
#Jetstream
can be seen cutting across the system
2. Dry air from aloft engaging with the system
3. Hints of a hammerhead forming
Undergoing rapid deepening now
A real fight going on it seems between the cold potential of Scandinavian blocking & a mild Atlantic onslaught
Not only is the Atlantic low now 33hpa less deep on Monday
But, the Scandi high is now 9hpa more intense
Going to be interesting to see how this one plays out!
🥊🥊
The
#QBO
..wind in the stratosphere above the tropics, is becoming more deeply descended
Since the early 1950s there have been 11 deeply descended E'lies, roughly half coinciding with cold winters, the others with average winters..none were mild
It's important medium range
#weather
forecasts aren't based on 1 model/1 model run
Yes there are flip flops in models perhaps as they try to account for events taking place at surface globally or higher in atmosphere
However, outlook trends still support E based
#airstreams
The stratosphere above the N Pole taking a real knock out blow right now...
#temperatures
of +53C shown barreling across the southern part of the Arctic circle
📈😲
It has been confirmed that the hourly
#rainfall
of 40.6mm at Edinburgh Botanical Gardens on Sunday 4.7.21 1700-1800 BST was the highest hrly rainfall on record for the city
One to keep 👀 on
Both GFS & EC have recently been/continue to hint at a possible 'attack' on the
#spv
stratospheric polar vortex in January..a marked warming possibly rotating around into polar regions, and a vortex weakening from extreme strength to perhaps well below average
Today is one of those days i feel very proud to work for
@metoffice
. As an organisation we put up with criticism & take it constructively & on chin, & on days like today when our forecasts prove very accurate we don't raise it from the rooftops..i think that deserves recognition
Not been this
#chilly
for a while!
Widespread ground and local air
#frost
..must be that 'mini
#iceage
' the press have been warning us of...😅🤦♂️
#brrr
#StormCiaran
990hpa 00z Wednesday to 953hpa 00z Thursday ... a deepening of 37hpa in 24hrs
Explosive deepening = 24hpa in 24hrs
976hpa 12z Wed to 953 hpa 00z Thursday..deepening of 23hpa in just 12hrs
The
#SSW
sudden stratospheric warming event appears to be underway!
A 30C warming so far at 10hpa & a small amount of that warming already filtering down to 30hpa level
Eventually if it couples with 100/150hpa at top of the troposphere may affect our
#jetstream
and
#weather
👀
Some damage here in Exmouth following last night's very high spring tides..the highest I've seen in the ten years being here..Sly gales meeting water coming down the Exe..tidal locking perhaps (?)...storm surge too due to
#StormPierrick
Latest UKMO setting the scene nicely..
Yes some colder air Sun to Tues, but as I've been tweeting recently, until we get that Greenland high pressure blocking going it's difficult currently to tap into the true Arctic air..the latest 168 chart would do it!
📉❄
A small taste of what's to come?
Preliminary warming appears to be moving into the Polar region in the stratosphere
Impending
#SSW
sudden stratospheric warming event 📈
Lots of uncertainty still about details, but if GFS is correct the 10hpa 60N wind could reverse to E around this time next week
A reversal maintained for 24hrs or more would signify a major
#ssw
sudden stratospheric warming event
🌡️ A temperature of 39.1°C has provisionally been recorded at Charlwood, Surrey
If confirmed this will be the highest temperature ever recorded in the UK⚠️
Temperatures are likely to rise further through today 📈
#heatwave
#heatwave2022
Some forecast models predict that 20-30 inches of rain could fall in the next 24 hours near Al Ghaydah, Yemen, as Tropical Cyclone Tej stalls over the region.
Al Ghaydah receives ~2 inches of rain per year, which means over 10 year's worth of rain could fall in just 24 hours,…
Yes we're all sitting in our bunkers planning our methods of attack as we speak!...🤦♂️😅... the
#metoffice
winter forecast Dec to Jan hasn't even officially been issued yet! ...
🤦♂️ for a 2nd time!
Having seen latest 12Z model data the change in the last 24hrs to a slightly more -
#AO
&
#NAO
as suggested by GFS seems to be setting scene
#Jetstream
effectively displaced that bit further S would leave most of UK in colder air on its N side
#Christmas
Day
#snow
potential ⬆️
Am i the only one concerned by the fact that uk is going on a completely different path to so many other countries with respect to dealing with
#Covid_19
?..keep being told that we're following agreed science (as just now on
#bbcqt
)..but how is it agreed if others are diverging?!!
1 of the things I love about my job
Sometimes people are quick to criticise capabilities of
#weather
models, but the fact nowadays we can prepare people for likely impacts of systems several days ahead (even today
#StormBarra
is barely evident stage left below!) is worth noting
Happy Christmas everyone..thanks so much for following me this last yr..perhaps a bit corny, but means a lot knowing my interest/enjoyment sharing weather knowledge I've gained over yrs as a weather forecaster, through my tweets, also proves of interest/& or help to others!👍🎄🎁
The
#weather
turning cooler and more changeable for a while
Hint though that high
#pressure
will return next week, especially across the north
Good news for everyone perhaps
Welcomed
#rain
short term for many
#Sunshine
possibly returning later
Apologies I'm starting to get too many in coming questions relating to ssw impacts which i just havent enough time to reply to
My twitter feed will display all the info i have to hand at the time
👍
According to
@DailyMirror
snow warnings have been issued-news to us here
@metoffice
where such warnings actually get issued!
IN REALITY TOPS OF SCOTTISH CAIRNGORMS HAVE SEEN THEIR 1ST AUTUMN SNOW (NORMAL) & NOTHING UNUSUAL EXPECTED COMING FEW WEEKS! 🤦♂️🤦♂️
#Weather
drivers for UK
#winter
couldn't be in a more favourable cold pattern inducing set up
Strat vortex becoming less strong,
#lanina
established,
#mjo
stronger in phase 7,
#qbo
very deep descended Ely & seas less warm
If not now when?!
#climate
change influence perhaps
With
#MJO
continuing to show a strengthening signal heading into phase 6/7, & remembering likely delay of ~10 to 14 days in occurrence to effect, coupled with our weak
#lanina
and marked -
#IOD
, November might be one to 👀 for UK blocking patterns.. notably mid Atlantic ridging
In 9/10 days time both GFS & EC continue to signal a huge weakening of the
#spv
stratospheric polar vortex
12Z GFS now reverses the 10hpa 60N wind, although 'briefly'-verging on major
#ssw
status
Appears a wave 1 event-high pressure nr Alaska displacing vortex
1 to continue 👀
Signs developing
#StormBarra
is undergoing rapid deepening now
1. Low pressure in perfect location just ahead of trough in left exit of
#jetstream
for deepening to occur
2. Signs on water vapour imagery of dry air from aloft engaging with low
3. Signs of 'hammer head' forming