Daniel Oliver Jr. @Myrmikan Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

1 year

The money supply is shrinking. Compounding debts cannot be paid. The looming recession will force the Fed to print regardless of the inflation rate:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

1 year

From 1:30:47 to 1:34:33 -- stunning:

Treasury Secretary Yellen testifies before the Senate on Biden's 2024...

The U.S. Senate Committee on Finance holds a hearing on President Biden's fiscal year 2024 budget. Witnesses include Janet Yellen, secretary of the U.S. Depa...

www.youtube.com

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

When will the Fed blink?

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

The final bubble is bursting:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

The U.S. dollar will fail against commodities, not other currencies:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 months

The domestic decline of the U.S. has profound implications for international trade and the value of the U.S. dollar:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

Gold Mining Valuations Ridiculous Again:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

Can't be long until something breaks:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

9 months

Getting closer:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

FTX Post-Mortem:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

10 months

Time is growing short:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

The ancient Greeks thought only tyrants needed body guards.

Pete Muntean

@petemuntean

3 years

New, massive fencing going up outside the Capitol. The eight foot, non-scalable fence is gone. Now, a 12-foot wall is going up.

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

"War is the state’s escape from a collapsed internal economy." -Frank Chodorov, 1947

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

Is the USD losing its anchor?

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

1 year

Boom! Failure spreads from frauds (FTX) to the marginal users of capital (venture/SVB) towards the center. Reminder: the Fed is just a giant SVB:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

The Fed is already easing. Latest research from Myrmikan Capital:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

6 months

Deficits to Power Gold Higher:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

Rising nominal rates are good for gold:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

The vice between asset deflation and goods inflation grows ever tighter:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

My latest:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

Real rates go more negative:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

There is no fever like war fever:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

8 months

There are no final victories in finance:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

1 year

It's time:

Mary Poppins – Bank Run

null

www.youtube.com

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

My latest: The Path to Hyperinflation:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 months

Revisiting this clip to understand why the Fed is about to pivot.

Win Smart, CFA

@WinfieldSmart

9 months

More Powell presser

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

Get ready for retail prices to soar:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

1 year

The Fed confuses money and credit:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Oct. 20, 1987: Dick Grasso of the NY Stock Exchange calls Goldman Sachs head trader Bob Mnuchin and orders him to buy. Mnuchin buys $500 million of shares at the bottom. The Fed lowers rates 100 bps in two days. Mnuchin makes a fortune. Mnuchin’s son, Steve, was 25.

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

No, that’s normal. The evil is the press and intelligence community covering for them.

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

My latest: Inflation, Good and Hard:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

The Fed is losing control:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

My latest: Pop goes the Bubble

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

Fed assets back the USD. Fed portfolio ($millions) as of Sept 30: Cost: $8,632,599 Market Value: $7,507,297 Cumulative losses: $1,125,302, a 13% capital loss: Plus it loses $1.8 billion per week in operations:

FRED Economic Data

Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury: Wednesday Level

fred.stlouisfed.org

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Myrmikan's latest: "QE-for-the-people is the end game of the inflationary economic cycle."

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

"We have, indeed, been told, that the public is no weaker upon account of its debts; since they are mostly due among ourselves, and bring as much property to one as they take from another. It is like transferring money from the right hand to the left; which leaves the person...

Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

5 years

DEBT IS MONEY WE OWE TO OURSELVES DEBT IS MONEY WE OWE TO OURSELVES DEBT IS MONEY WE OWE TO OURSELVES DEBT IS MONEY .... It only make us poorer in aggregate if it crowds out investment — which is isn't doing

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

Fed's balance sheet hits a new high, rises $115 billion in one week: Time to sell your gold?

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

My latest, for those who really want to know why "r*" matters:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Dec. 23, 2018: The S&P500 has fallen 17% in three months. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin calls the banks to “check” on liquidity. Dec. 26: The S&P 500 rises 5%. No word yet on who made the fortune.

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

My latest interview:

Dan Oliver - Myrmikan Capital - Supply Side

Dan Oliver is the author of an important upcoming book called Golden Tears and is also the founder of the respected research firm and junior miner specialists, Myrmikan Capital.

supplysidepartners.com

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

Bullish employment numbers! Now observe the datapoint at Aug. 1929:

FRED Economic Data

Unemployment Rate for United States

fred.stlouisfed.org

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

Fed in a box:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

1 year

The deep state is real…

TheLastRefuge

@TheLastRefuge2

1 year

Big Picture. For three years the FBI has been sitting on evidence the current U.S. President was being bribed by foreign agents to change U.S. policy. Name an investigation that would be more important to the nation. Yet it takes them 3 years? Think about it.

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Stock investors, don’t panic “if recession should threaten serious consequences for business (as is not indicated at present) there is little doubt that the Reserve System would take steps to ease the money market and so check the movement.” Harvard Economic Society, Oct 18, 1929

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

"The very doubt seems extravagant." -David Hume, 1742

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

9 months

Congressional Budget Office: "Excluding the effects of the changing plans for student loans, the deficit is on track to double from $1.0 trillion in 2022 to $2.0 trillion in 2023, CBO estimates."

Christiane Amanpour

@amanpour

9 months

“The economic data have been just surreally good. Even optimists are just stunned,” says Nobel Prize-winning economist @paulkrugman . So why do polls show most Americans don’t think the economy is doing well? “There’s a really profound and peculiar disconnect going on.”

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

The link contains commentary on the new Big Tech Marxism and its likely effect on the U.S. dollar:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

In Myrmikan's view, a sweep by the Democrats could effectively end America's constitutional system, which has obvious implications for the dollar and gold:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

1 year

Banks are always one step ahead of the regulators:

ALX 🇺🇸

@alx

1 year

This is incredibly hard to watch

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

"...neither richer nor poorer than before. Such loose reasonings and specious comparisons will always pass, where we judge not upon principles. I ask, Is it possible, in the nature of things, to overburthen a nation with taxes, even where the sovereign resides among them?

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

Every American should read this article:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

P.J. O'Rourke told me with a laugh that the Lampoon staff bet Belushi would outlast all of them. "Millions of us are leading empty, useless, pitiful lives and lifting weights and eating fiber to make those lives last longer." Not P.J. 74 seems young but for the mileage. RIP

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

I stand corrected: the Atlanta GDPNow figure for Q2 2022 is now 0.0%.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

When will the Fed blink?

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

My latest on the interplay between politics and economics:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Latest research piece from Myrmikan Capital:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

The Fed's budget increased by 5.6% in 2020 to $4.7 billion (CPI officially is under 2%). In December the Fed announced it would publish monetary statistics monthly instead of weekly: we pay more and get less (just like products in the grocery store).

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Oct 19, 1987: stocks plunge 23%. Greenspan calls banks to assure them of Fed support and declares publicly “its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity.” Howard Baker calls his Wall Street cronies and warns them: “It is really important for the country that you start buying.”

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

Bankman-Fried's mother's article Beyond Blame: “The study of the brain is in its infancy; as it advances, the evidence for determinism will surely grow.... The reality is that we are all at best compromised agents, whether by biology, social circumstance, or brute luck.”

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Question: given that everything is in a bubble, will the Fed raise rates to contain the bubble? Or lower them to “fight the anticipated collapse”? Or “do nothing”?

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Latest Myrmikan media:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

Or maybe it's because publishing monetary statistics weekly is too embarrassing. In its first monthly release (which now uses averages, making it harder to understand), the Fed reports today that M1 rose 1.9% in one month:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

My latest: Correction: the best estimate for the value of the above-ground gold supply is $8 trillion, not $10 trillion (and the quantity of negative yielding bonds exceeds $17 trillion, not $15 trillion).

This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn

lnkd.in

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

1 year

@LawrenceLepard Larry, allow me: "Weimar!" The differences are less than one might imagine/hope. It's so sad about Mark Turner (IKN). I used to think he was one of the good guys. Don't think anyone reads him anymore. Mark, it's simple: "Rise" equals "asymmetric."

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

And when does the stock market ever go down when there are not sharply mounting concerns about the economy and increasing problems in credit markets?

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

7 years

“When will the rise in stock market prices cease; what is the cause of this continual advance?” WSJ: 1919

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

9 months

"But I think we’ve really got to think of goosing it." "Yes." "Shall we say late summer and fall this year in order to affect next year?" "Exactly." "As you know, there’s a hell of a lag." "Exactly." Richard Nixon to Arthur Burns, 19 Mar 1971.

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

Greenspan: "The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the Nation's central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system." (October 20, 1987)

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Thank you @RonStoeferle , @MarkValek , Heinz Blasnik, and @JamesGRickards for a great conversation during Incrementum's recent advisory meeting:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

The Fed has a mandate to achieve price stability. As a result of banking subsidies (legal tender laws, FDIC, TBTF, Greenspan put), housing subsidies (GSEs), and “deregulation” of bank profits, home prices double from 1999 to 2006. A member of the FOMC reacts:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

2 years

From the bankruptcy filling: "Related Party Loans Receivable of $4.1 billion at Alameda Research (consolidated) consisted primarily of a loan ... to Mr. Bankman-Fried, of $1 billion."

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

Fed's balance sheet reaches a new all-time high. And that was last week....

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Myrmikan's latest podcast with Adam Johnson:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Thus stands revealed the naked absurdity of the stabilization policy: as in the 1920s, the Fed doesn’t care if the prices it is stabilizing make sense and, in trying to maintain them, does not even know, as the FOMC member put it, “do we move rates up or down?”

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Myrmikan exposes Blinder fraud:

Opinion | Alan Blinder Forgets How Political He Was at the Federal Reserve

Prof. Blinder was a natural choice to undermine Alan Greenspan after the Fed began to raise rates in early 1994.

www.wsj.com

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

1 year

… and despite his personality challenges, Trump is the only man who has any chance of defeating it.

zerohedge

@zerohedge

1 year

Trump: "I Have Been Indicted"

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

The best treatment of Wuhan virus I have seen.

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

Bernanke explains: "It is not our job to target stock values or to protect stock investors, but I think that this [plunge] is a symptom of both sharply mounting concerns about the economy and increasing problems in credit markets." (January 21, 2008)

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

“House prices are high. Do we respond to the expectation by lowering rates to fight the anticipated collapse? To put it mildly, this policy would be very hard to explain and carries the risk that our more accommodative policy would drive house prices even higher...

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

Vote today as if your life depends on it ... because maybe it does:

Anarchy 2020

null

www.youtube.com

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

P.S.: Grasso got a compensation pay package worth almost $140 million from the hand-picked compensation committee consisted mainly of representatives from NYSE-listed companies over which Grasso had regulatory authority as its CEO.

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

@Mav_Invest @ttmygh My book's website was hosted by Webfaction, which was bought by another company -- other affairs made me miss the deadline for moving the site, and they erased it. Then my font company (Hoefler & Co.) got bought as well. Fiat financed mergers kill competition and creativity!

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

3 years

@Monetary_Metals Yes, and the next clause was: "so the thinking goes." Gold does have yield in terms of purchasing power, as explained here: And, as you point out, gold had a yield in the 19th century and, now, it seems, again.

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

6 years

History repeats?

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

“...If I can coin a term, this would be viewed as a Greenspan ‘shotput.’ [Laughter] On the other hand, do we do what the press would have us do—raise rates and likely destabilize? This is a tough, perhaps impossible, question. And our best approach is most likely to do nothing.”

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

Myrmikan is shocked, SHOCKED, that Trump is politicizing the Fed by appointing Steve Moore to be a governor. Read more here:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

7 years

grossest delusion, respecting money and the metals it is made of; that paper alone was useful and necessary." Duc de Saint-Simon, 1723

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

Bernanke: "The Federal Reserve is providing liquidity to facilitate the orderly functioning of financial markets." (August 17, 2007)

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

5 years

@QustnEverything @trader8CTA @SantiagoAuFund @NuitSeraCalme @Techs_Global You may prefer this one:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

12 years

Warren Buffett May Know Value, But He Doesn't Know What Money Is - Forbes http://t.co/QmnNeDTe

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

4 years

Powell: "The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy." (February 28, 2020)

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

6 years

@RudyHavenstein Thanks for the shoutout - full letter here:

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Daniel Oliver Jr.

@Myrmikan

7 years