Husband to a beautiful wife & father of 2 boys
Waukee HS WR Coach
Wartburg alum
Engineer
#D3FB
ball-knower
Team ratings & game predictions in the link ⬇️
Have you ever wondered what goes into my predictive ratings, and how game predictions are made? You're in luck! I just finished writing a 3,000 word explanation of how the sauce gets made, complete with reference links and a hilarious # of footnotes.
#d3fb
National Championship
#D3FB
#StaggBowl
odds after the round of 16:
North Central 75.1%
UW-Whitewater 8.1%
Randolph-Macon 4.8%
Wartburg 4.4%
UW-La Crosse 3.2%
Alma 1.8%
Johns Hopkins 1.5%
Cortland 1.1%
Using my early preseason ratings and the 2023 schedules posted on , here are the most likely conference champions for each
#d3fb
conference*
* Except the NESCAC
I probably have a dozen pictures of the Concordia-St. Olaf
#d3fb
Troll Trophy on my phone, because I download it every time someone asks the question. The answer is always the same!!!
Which conferences are the best in
#d3fb
?
The WIAC is in a class by itself.
The MIAA? No elite teams, the SOS isn't that bad, every team is 3-1 or better.
Great: The usual suspects
Good: A bunch of solid top-to-bottom teams
Average: Few great teams, some pretty bad ones
You one-stop shop for
#d3fb
team previews is live.
☑️Conference previews
☑️Playoff projections
☑️Team win totals
☑️Team schedule predictions
☑️Opponent-adjusted team ratings
☑️Advanced stats for individual players
☑️Weekly rating for the last 25 years
I'm gonna be a dad. My boy's going to be a rock star. Can't wait to wipe his butt and clean his puke off my pants, or to teach him a double-leg, do a linear regression, play catch, read a book, sack a quarterback, and all the things I can't even think of.
@MallyPallyYeah
The highest rated
#d3fb
teams of the last 25 seasons (excl 2020)
1. Mt Union 2015
2. UMHB 2021
3. NCC 2022
4. UMHB 2018
5. Mt Union 2012
6. Mt Union 1997
7. Mt Union 2014
8. NCC 2019
9. UST 2015
10. Mt Union 2007
11. Mt Union 2017
12. UWW 2014
13. Mt Union 2002
14. Mt Union 2008
2023 Hansen Ratings All American Teams
National Players & Coaches of the Year
OMVP: Kaleb Blaha, UWRF
DMVP: Justin Blazek, UWP
STMVP: Cameron Shirangi, Pomona-Pitzer
COTY: Curt Fitzpatrick, Cortland
Full release:
The WIAC this season is next level. 17-3 non-conference record. The average rating in the conference is +25.3. That is:
A) The best rating since at least 1997
2) Lapping the 2nd best conference (CCIW: +11.6)
iii) Further from the CCIW than the CCIW is from the NCAC (-1.4)
Here are my 2019
#D3FB
Analytical All American Teams.
Offensive MVP: Broc Rutter
Offensive MOP: Ethan Greenfield
Offensive OLMVP: Tyler Norwood
Defensive MVP: Sam Romanski
Defensive DLMVP: Michael Nobile
Special Teams MVP: Cole Westberry
Alma has as many playoff wins the last two seasons as the entire rest of the MIAA had during the entire 32-team era. This is the first time an MIAA team has advanced to the quarterfinals. Last week was the first MIAA playoff win over a top 10 conference ever.
What if...
The
#d3fb
tournament expanded to 40 teams,
We could pay for every flight we wanted,
And the NCAA gave me, Logan Hansen, carte blanche to pick the selection & seeding criteria?
Here's how I would project the field to finish in 2023.
My
#d3fb
conference coaching staffs of the year, determined according to their average ranks in:
Team Ratings (O, D, overall)
Exceeding Expectations (points scored/allowed vs expectation, actual wins vs. preseason)
Improvement from Preseason (change in ratings from preseason)
Which 2023
#D3FB
QBs did the best job of maximizing good plays (first downs & touchdowns), which minimizing bad plays (sacks & interceptions)?
As was the story with basically any rate stat from 2023, it was Drew Campanale and then everybody else.
It's hard to comprehend that Grover only had 11 tackles. It seemed like there were entire drives where he was in on every play.
Clasen played out of his mind. Still my favorite psychopath.
Nile was throwing absolute darts for three quarters.
Proud of these guys.
Hansen Ratings 2022 DIII Analytical All American and All Region Teams
Region 4 Awards
OMVP: Braxton Plunk, Mount Union
DMVP: Drake Neuberger, Marietta
STMVP: Jack Drake, DePauw
COTY: Jason Couch, Alma
Full release:
Wanna hear a joke? UD lost these two games by a combined 52 points. And that first clip against UWW, the sack? UD gave up a 27 yard TD on the very next play. 😤
Hansen Ratings 2022 DIII Analytical All American and All Region Teams
Region 5 Awards
OMVP: Will Bowers, QB, Wheaton
DMVP: Alexander Perkins, DL, Millikin
STMVP: Logan Sunvold, K, Central
COTY: Chris Winter, Wartburg
Full release:
Who were the most versatile
#d3fb
players in 2022?
I looked at 12 individual statistics in the different phases of the game to determine who produced the most in the most ways.
Hansen Ratings 2022 DIII Analytical All American and All Region Teams
Region 6 Awards
OMVP: Kobe Berghammer, QB, UW-Oshkosh
DMVP: Justin Blazek, DL, UW-Platteville
STMVP: Owen Tapia, K/P, Chapman
COTY: Derrin Lamker, Augsburg
Full release:
In Mount Union's worst 3 season stretch of the last 25 years, their average rating was 41.1 ppg above average.
Linfield has been the 3rd best
#d3fb
team in that span. Their best 3 season stretch had a rating of 41.4 ppg above average.
We don't appreciate Mt. Union enough.
Hansen Ratings 2022 DIII Analytical All American and All Region Teams
Region 2 Awards
OMVP: Ryan Stevens, Johns Hopkins
DMVP: Dawson Dietz, Wash. & Jeff.
STMVP: Patrick Luby, Cortland
COTY: Peter Gallagher, Ursinus
Full release:
Predictive Ratings heading into the
#d3fb
national semifinalists.
1. North Central 56.0
2. Mount Union 45.7
3. UMHB 45.0
4. Wartburg 42.5
5. UWL 38.7
6. Bethel 37.2
7. SJU 37.1
The four best teams in the country are the four teams left playing.
The Top 5
#d3fb
teams in the country, according to opponent-adjusted Net Total Adjusted Yards/Play (TAYP):
#1
North Central
#2
Mount Union
#3
Wartburg
#4
Mary Hardin-Baylor
#5
THE AURORA UNIVERSITY SPARTANS
Full statistics for all teams:
Odds of advancing to the
#d3fb
semifinals:
North Central - 96%
Mount Union - 91%
Wartburg - 72%
Mary Hardin-Baylor - 68%
Bethel - 32%
Aurora - 28%
Delaware Valley - 9%
Ithaca - 4%
National Awards (cont'd)
OPOTY: Ethan Greenfield, North Central
OLOTY: Jeske Maples, North Central
OCOTY: Patrick Rotchford, Cortland
LBOTY: Zach Blackiston, Heidelberg
DBOTY: Parker Rochford, Wartburg
DCOTY: Matt Tschetter, Wartburg
Full release:
I was able to talk to most of the Wartburg coaches after the win yesterday. When asked if he was excited about reaching the semifinals, Defensive Coordinator
@Coach_Tschetter
said, "Yeah man. It's pretty cool."
Week 5
#d3fb
matchups.
I am not a sportsbook. This is not gambling advice. People just really seem to like this format, so I'm going to keep posting it.
The best defense in the East? Right now? Going by my ratings (opponent- and recency-adjusted scoring defense), it's actually not Montclair or Brockport, it's
@IthacaBomberFB
.
1. Ithaca - 7.2
2. Brockport - 9.0
3. Montclair - 10.4
#d3fb
@d3football
@D3Keith
The AP released their
#d3fb
All-American teams. Pretty good stuff, but having Boyes ahead of Lehnen for the first team QB was pretty, pretty surprising.
I was able to get my hands on the testing results for the WIAC & Wisconsin Private College Pro Day. From highest to lowest, here's each
#d3fb
prospect's Relative Athletic Score and comparable athletes. For some guys, I ran the numbers at multiple positions.
Who were the most versatile defenders in
#d3fb
in 2022?
I looked at defenders' production in the various aspects of defensive play to see who produced the most in the most ways.
I'm very impressed with the
@BSCFootball
staff. It would have been relatively easy for them to either get out of town in the last year or so, given the job insecurity, but they stuck it out, and now they're doing what they can to help find homes for the kids who trusted them.
2023 Hansen Ratings All American Teams
OPOY: Brandon Cade, Berry
OL: Jared Thornton, North Central
OC: Caleb Corrill, Mt. St. Joseph
LB: Ben Bladel, Grove City
DB: Parker Rochford, Wartburg
DC: Matthew Popino, Endicott
Full release:
You can tell UST is well coached, because the INSTANT the ball is touched by a Valpo player w/o getting downed, every UST player on the screen immediately went into "score at all costs" mode.
I am not a sportsbook. I will not be accepting bets on Crown +10,670,710. This is not gambling advice. I don't know anything about gambling, and I'm like 90% sure I messed up the moneyline calculation. Just trying out a different format for presenting
#d3fb
matchups.
How I think I see the
#d3fb
Pool C situation right now (subject to change after release of regional rankings):
1) 9-1 UWW
2) 8-2 UWW
3) 8-2 SJU
4) 8-2 Hope
5) 9-1 Union
6) 9-1 Muhlenberg
7) 9-1 Wheaton
8) 9-1 DePauw
I didn't realize Jordan Downing broke the Wartburg career sack record against Aurora. The dude whose record he broke definitely had that dog in him...
#d3fb
Which 2022
#D3FB
QBs Got the Most Production in the Air vs. on the Ground?
Names highlighted for every QB who was in the Top 12 in either rushing, passing, or overall production.
Metric of interest is opponent-adjusted yards above replacement per team game.
Projection for the
#d3baseball
field of 60, using my proposed Surplus Margin of Victory (SMOV) metric instead of the NCAA SOS. The last 2 regional rankings count for Wins & Losses vs. RRO, so I'm using the NCAA's last ranking and a projected final ranking.
My final regular season predictive ratings.
Right now, North Central would be at least 12.5 point favorite against every other
#d3fb
team in the country.
Not sure what I just saw. B-W up 21-17 on UMU, 0:04 left. Mount ball at midfield. Hail Mary. The throw is WELL short of the GL, but... The defender went for the INT, the ball bounced off his helmet toward the EZ, and a streaking Mount WR catches it for the win.
#d3fb
Odds to advance to the
#d3fb
#StaggBowl
North Central - 81%
Mount Union - 64%
Wartburg - 36%
Mary Hardin-Baylor 19%
Odds to win the title
North Central - 62%
Mount Union - 19%
Mary Hardin-Baylor - 10%
Wartburg - 9%