I have a new indicator for everyone (just a little bit of humor on a good day for growth)
The Significant Other Indicator: when you have the urge to tell your partner about your gains, it’s time to review your risk management and possibly sell some. 🤣
Anyone can identify the chart patterns found in popular books, but what separates the top traders from everyone else is their ability to recognize when even the best setups will fail due to market conditions that are unfavorable to their strategy.
With the energy sector on fire I wanted to get a crash course in how to trade it from one of the best in the business. Thank you for the great insights
@Trader_mcaruso
!
One of the most common trader errors I see is overtrading. Being great at finding good setups isn't enough. You must be able to recognize when the odds are not in your favor in a tough tape and step aside until conditions improve.
Disciplined Swing Traders easily side-step prolonged sell-offs by honoring their stops and waiting for new setups to develop when conditions improve. The market may be open, but you don't have to trade.
The Three Line Strike is a rare pattern that I scan for daily. It's comprised of 3 down candles with lower lows and lower highs followed by a 4th up candle that opens below the low of the 3rd candle and closes above the high of the 1st candle. $DKNG is an example from yesterday.
Traders who honor their stops do not suffer the mental anguish of holding a losing position and put themselves into a position of strength to capitalize on the next opportunity.
You don't have to be the best trader in the world to outperform the market. Just being able to recognize when to be aggressive and when to be conservative is sufficient.
Being a winner requires having the conviction that your strategy will outperform in the long run when it is underperforming in the short run. This is a mental challenge that many new traders struggle to overcome.
Happy Father's Day to all of you Dads out there that rise and grind for your kids each and every day! Sometimes the market is just too good to step away for too long, even if you're at the hospital for the birth of your 4th child.
Rather than focusing on finding the perfect chart pattern, I believe the better strategy in this environment is to trade the leaders, like $AMD $COIN $URI $ELF and $IBIT, (longs) and re-attack them on pullbacks/consolidations. Avoid the laggards!
I'm very bullish here and believe Small Caps will break out of the trading range they have been in since 2022 sometime this year. That will make for a great swing trading environment! The tight area highlighted by
@marketsmith
on the weekly $IWM chart shows buyers showed up at…
Lots of software stocks setting up. I believe this is an ideal condition that should be considered. $SHOP $CFLT $MDB $TTD $MNDY $DT already in $SHOP and a few others
It goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway, it's going to take some time for the next market leaders to form new pivots that offer lower risk entries.
Trade execution must be fast, deliberate, and effortless. I view it as an unconscious exercise, especially when I'm in a flow state. It's a skill that can be acquired through years of deliberate practice.
I'm deeply saddened by the news of William O'Neil's passing. He was an absolute investing legend whose lessons and strategies benefited so many. May he rest in peace and his legacy live on at IBD.
#StockMarketCrash
is trending, but it feels like we have been here before! Back in 2019, when I won the US Investing Championship, I faced a similar challenge. I went to cash on Dec 23rd because the market wasn't giving me much more juice. Check out the Nasdaq Composite from 2019…
This bear market has what I call a "Leaders Trap". When the indices are testing resistance a few leaders emerge, suck in buyers, and then the market rolls them out. $ENPH, $HLIT A clean crash lower would be much easier to trade!
Would you like to team up with me in an online environment that focuses on trading rocket stocks? I'm currently developing a dynamic solution that will make it easy to collaborate effectively w/o a noisy chat room. There would be a nominal fee to cover costs. DM me if interested.
The market is in a Stage 4 decline
#IBDPartner
. It's not you, it's the M in CANSLIM. Stay positive, it gets easier at some point! Don't expect easy trends yet.
A few stocks that are looking good after a down 5%+ day on the Nasdaq: $ENPH, $OXY, $EVH, $RYTM, $TH, $AXSM, $SWAV, $OVV, $PRVA (I own a few) Leaders could become easier to spot going forward.
One factor that helped me become profitable was recognizing how the strategy I was trading performed in various market conditions. Buying right includes recognizing what the overall market is doing. Knowing when to be aggressive is paramount.
I want to compound my gains quickly so I target the higher RS names and high tight flags because they resolve quickly either way. We were discussing this today on the platform. Time is money.
If the market continues to strengthen from here, the stocks that didn't receive the memo about the selloff may emerge as the new leaders. I'll be watching names like $CTSH $VRTX $PANW $JNPR $CNXC closely. I have positions in some of these.
What appeals to me most about swing trading is the ability to easily sidestep the market when conditions deteriorate. Sidestepping means studying what's working to determine which stocks will lead the next swing higher and preparing to capitalize on that move.
If you find your mindset drifting into a negative state, focusing on what you are grateful for can bring you back into a state of positivity and balance.
The no nonsense way to go on a big run is concentrating on a few strong names with size, selling into strength, moving up your stops, and rolling profits into new positions as the market permits.
If a breakout shows you a profit right away, increasing your position 10-35% around 1-2% from your original buy point is a smart tactic that's best used in a bull market.
Once the indices start printing new net highs following a meaningful decline the odds that the market has bottomed increase. For example, notice how new net highs started to appear at the 2019 and 2020 lows?
Here is a list of some stocks in uptrends that are testing their pivot area: $HRMY, $SWIR, $ARLP, $EOLS, $CEIX, $HNRG, $CTIC, $VRTX, $LRN, $LNTH, $TMUS, $UTHR
Anyone who has hiked at elevation knows the impact that lower O2 + higher atmospheric pressure have on your performance. The effect is comparable to overhead supply when buying a stock too low in its base. Each tick higher is a battle of increased intensity as more sellers exit.
I bought Solana at $87 as it broke out of the High Tight Flag and was concerned I was late. Little did I know it would rocket nearly 2.5x higher in 2 weeks! If only all trades worked out this well! $SOL
#Solana
Knowing what type of breakouts are working is key to improving performance. Length, strength, momentum, volume, group, tightness, and more are all important considerations.
There is a very short supply of high conviction setups currently. The price action in the indices tells me there is a lot of uncertainty amongst investors.
One tremendous advantage that individual traders have over large institutions is the ability to reduce risk quickly and step-aside when market conditions become unfavorable.
Would you buy a base that has a depth of 75% or more? Do you have a rule regarding base depth? If not, consider implementing one. For me, 50% is the max depth I'm willing to accept when evaluating trades.
We opened a position in $AMZN today
#IBDpartner
. The large rally and long base reminds me of $NVDA and large cap tech is performing well.
@MarketSmith
When asked how I sped up my learning curve, one tip I share is to study how each of your favorite technical setups perform under various market conditions. The goal is to get to the point where you can say "I've seen this movie before" and are able to execute with a degree of…
For those that watched my presentation at the TraderLion conference on Saturday morning I meant to leave you with this quote by Bruce Lee. Rather than trying to be a Jack-of-all-trades, I encourage you to find your niche in the market and relentlessly focus on mastering it.
From last week's livestream: Treat this kind of volatility like you would a bar fight. Step in too early and you're likely to get a chair over your head. Better to wait for most participants to be out of steam before swinging.
Cash is the safest position on critical days such as this. As the saying goes; however, a ship in harbor is safe, but that's not what ships are built for. As traders we should always be looking to deploy capital when prudent.
The reopening trade is setting up again. Check out the pivots above the 50sma in $MAR $H $EXPE $LYV. The more these base and work off supply the better.
Nervous travelers can observe flight attendants during takeoff. If they are joking around, everything is likely fine as they tend to know whether there is a serious issue. The same can be done with stocks by watching the leaders. If the leaders are holding up, I think odds…
Think big when creating a vision for yourself as to the type of trader that you want to be. Visualization and a positive mindset are crucial to achieving success. Use small victories to build your confidence and get you closer to your goals.
There are typically only a few periods each year when segments of the market trade really well. Currently, AI and Semi's are hot and several stocks set up simultaneously. If you missed that, go back and study the clues so you can be involved next time. $SMH $AVGO $ASML $ON $ACLS
One of the benefits of being a swing trader is that we don't mind a crash. I would rather the market just rip the band-aid off in the form of a crash, instead of suffering through a prolonged chopfest lower. A crash is easier to manage than chop.
A friend of mine is a very successful poker player. I recently asked him how he became so good at knowing how the game is going to play out. Without hesitation, his answer was SEAT TIME.
My scans are yielding fewer and fewer results. Momentum seems to be with stocks that are closer to their recent lows. High quality setups that meet my criteria are increasingly more difficult to find.
Sometimes I start the day with some great trade ideas and end up executing on a laggard while the others outperform. My first thought is usually "I can't believe I didn't buy that stock," but the key to improving is figuring out why the others are moving while yours is not.
The S&P 500 is off the same ~20% it sold off initially in 2008, in a market that also faced rising energy costs. In 2008 the countertrend rally went 14% before finishing off it's 50%+ move lower. Large bounces within an overall downtrend are common. Not predicting anything.
We only buy pullbacks under the right circumstances. Current market conditions favor patience. Wait for the indices to stabilize and new leaders to emerge.
We upgraded our market signal from Red to Yellow on Jan 11th based on how stocks are acting and have been sizing up as several swing trades began to work well. $CECO $PRDO $MOD $TEX $AXON $RXDX $ENSG $MDGL $MEDP
The S&P 500 was rejected at the 200sma, $AAPL is in a "frozen rope" extended structure, $HYG is rolling over, Bitcoin is breaking its uptrend, the Dollar is roaring, and the 10 year yield is climbing. Could be RISK OFF for now
My first trading account was whacked like this when I was in high school. Setting and honoring stops is a lesson I am grateful to have learned when I was young.
I worked on a watch list over the weekend and I didn't see much that was any good. That's usually a sign growth stocks could flush and we have to give back some.
Waiting for confirmation that swing trades are working often results in adding exposure too late during a swing higher in a choppy market. I believe building positions with tighter risk management after a pullback made sense here.
So many eyes on $NVDA with some freshly issued higher price targets. David Ryan and I agreed on Friday's IBD Live that it is trading a lot like $SMCI as it went into earnings. Who is left to buy and are the expectations too high? I have no idea which way it trades, but it seems…
We've been busy in $PLTR. After a profit scale we closed the remainder of the position near breakeven. We were then quick to start a new position once it demonstrated it could hold the prior pivot.
Everyone thinks there is a secret to knowing which way a stock will trade following an earnings report. I have studied thousands of reactions and concluded it's a coin toss. If you want to hold through earnings, the secret is having a cushion and risk management. See $CMG + more:
I went to cash yesterday after being slapped around a bit on my RED signal. I spoke with some top traders who have struggled this year and it's clear that the best course of action (my opinion, could be wrong) is to step aside until conditions improve.
My thoughts on $SMCI yesterday apply to any stock that has seen a big run up ahead of an earnings release. You have to be concerned that earnings expectations are unrealistic and investors have gotten ahead of themselves. It’s too risky to hold a stock such as this through an…