Even as Ukrainian generals and soldiers fight to expel Russian invaders, a second army of state bureaucrats and civil society experts in Kyiv has been quietly mobilizing to win the peace.
Two new reports from
@gmfus
,
@brdo_ukraine
,
@IAAUkraine
, &
@RISE_Ukraine_
map these actors.
.
@washingtonpost
has been "reliably told" that Trump is intentionally withholding a White House visit and US military aid "in an attempt to extort" the Ukrainian government into "intervening in the 2020 US presidential election" by investigating Joe Biden.
Trump lying today about aid to Ukraine:
“I think Europe has to do more. We’re in for $200 billion. They’re in for $25 billion.”
The real numbers are $75 billion (€70 billion) from the US and $166 billion (€156 bil.) from Europe.
Correct every politician who repeats this lie.
📢 New update of our Ukraine Support Tracker. The big news: Europe overtakes the US by a large margin (total EU now 2x US). If we add UK, NOR, CH, then US commitments are only 45% of Europe’s (€70 bn vs €156 bn). This is a major shift compared to first year of war. A thread 1/7
@ianbremmer
Sounds like
@elonmusk
did what George Logan (pacifist farmer turned commentator) did in 1798 amid war with France:
Talk privately to the hostile gov’t, then suggest to Americans a plan for peace (as the USG was trying to project strength).
Congress outlawed it w/ the Logan Act.
BOOM—
@WhiteHouse
publishes the first-ever US government strategy on countering corruption!
It's two weeks ahead of Biden's 200-day deadline, impressively broad in scope, and powerfully strong in details, setting a fierce tone for the
#SummitforDemocracy
!
Buried lede: US intelligence analysts picked up chatter last month that emails like those revealed yesterday by the NYPost would be leaked in October, having been stolen by the same GRU unit that hacked the DNC. One worry was Russia would mix in forgeries.
Putin is laughing. Gaetz had his fun. Now Ukraine’s friends among House Republicans should launch a counteroffensive by insisting that the next House Speaker allow a vote on $90 billion of Ukraine aid with strong oversight and accountability provisions. 🧵
NEW REPORT: Ukraine is halfway through a hero’s journey with a dual conflict against Russia and oligarchy.
Ukrainian anti-corruption is vital to the rules-based order.
@NormEisen
, Cameron Bertron, and I offer 25 ways stakeholders in that order can help. 🧵
#LetterFromTwitterJail
: Just spoke with my friend
@apmassaro3
. He's in contact with
@Twitter
, which is trying to get him to delete this tweet. He refuses, citing a moral duty to Iranian pro-democracy activists who are in (or have been in or have loved ones in) real Iranian jails.
@adamdavidson
I'd add two data points suggesting Russian cultivation may have ramped up in 2011:
1. Trump said in March 2011 he may run for president, then heavily propagated birtherism.
2. Chris Steel heard from two sources in June 2016 Russia had been supporting Trump for at least 5 years.
Boom—Treasury's FinCEN issues America's first-ever national anti-money laundering priorities, and priority
#1
is corruption! 👏👏👏
Treasury also guided banks to watch for cybercrime and domestic terrorism and deemphasized the Trump-era focus on WMDs.
📜
Wow—
@USTreasury
rolls out its biggest ever package of corruption sanctions (65 people/entities), including Bulgaria's richest oligarch (& most infamous gangster) and a media tycoon investigated by the OCCRP (& his front man) and all their companies. 👏👏👏
One of these guys rules a regime that actually tried to murder people he tagged in the tweet below (which has still not been taken down by Twitter).
The other guy is banned from Twitter.
🇮🇱🇺🇦🇹🇼🇺🇸 Congress should elevate national security above partisan politics by enacting aid to Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the US border. 🧵
My latest in
@thehill
:
"Time to Be the Arsenal of Democracy"
Brexit delay brings an opportunity to get to the truth about who funded the 2016 referendum before implementing its results. My latest on dark Russian money with
@AtlanticCouncil
.
Today's bombshell from the
#FinCENFiles
—that a sanctioned Kremlin oligarch funneled $8 million in 2016 to a top Tory party donor—is the tip of the iceberg. In today's FT, I explain that over 100 such cases add up to $300 million, mostly in the past 5 years.
Treasury just issued this media advisory on
@TreasuryDepSec
's speech at 10am Monday, which will unveil Treasury's anti-corruption plans. They're banging the war drum.
The strength of Treasury policies depends a lot on the details, so here's a thread reviewing my recommendations.
For everyone tracking Lev Parnas’s trail of Russian money, here's a summary of his known cashflows:
He seemingly got over $2 million from pro-Kremlin sources and spent it on access to US politicians and lawyers involved in the effort to acquire dirt on a leading 2020 candidate.
Thank you
@AshaRangappa_
& everyone else on our task force who helped
@jessbrandt
& me develop this research.
With Russian interference having been actively welcomed in the 2016 & 2020 elections, foreign adversaries will be back in 2024. Now it's time to outlaw US participation.
Authoritarians have spent more than $300 million interfering in politics more than 100 times in 33 countries over the past decade.
We bucketed the cases into the top 7 legal loopholes and consulted 90+ experts to craft targeted policy fixes.
New Report:
Boom—Biden establishes anticorruption as a core US national security interest and orders his advisors to lead an interagency review on the fight against corruption. This is Biden's first such presidential study, National Security Study Memorandum-1! 👏👏👏
“50 years after the election of 2022, what a historian is likely to say about this election isn’t how high the inflation rate was, [but rather,] ‘why was democracy teetering on the edge in 2022 and what happened after that?’”—
@BeschlossDC
to
@PreetBharara
The most deserved pardon of the season! This is the one of the strongest laws against financial secrecy in American history. In my view (and if Treasury writes bold regs), it’s even more important than the Patriot Act, best law of its kind since Bank Secrecy Act passage in 1970.
Pardon the all-caps, but the Senate's veto override today means that the U.S. A) just eliminated the primary building block in America's transformation into an offshore haven, and B) passed the most sweeping counter-kleptocracy reforms in decades—potentially ever.
It's esp. focused on the transnational dimensions and ability to launder the proceeds of corruption (pillar 2⃣ is the most important), but it's a whole-of-government strategy with five pillars:
1⃣ US government
2⃣ Illicit finance
3⃣ Accountability
4⃣ Multilateral
5⃣ Foreign aid
2⃣ Curbing illicit finance
This is the big one, folks. Beyond just the statutorily required regs on beneficial ownership, they're issuing new regs for real estate, re-examining AML rules for investment advisors, and working with Congress on legislation like the ENABLERS Act!
In sum, the breadth of this
@WhiteHouse
strategy—especially with the details in the appendix and more announcements coming from the agencies all week (
@USTreasury
today,
@USAID
tomorrow, etc)—makes it the most sweeping anti-corruption policy initiative in American history. 👏👏👏
The Biden White House will seek to counter kleptocracy. Congress is outlawing anonymous shell companies.
Now
@USTreasury
should plan to root out dirty money and take on oligarchs.
Our new report proposes a sweeping
@USTreasury
anti-corruption strategy. 🧵
Maybe the “Pillar of Shame” (the memorial to Tiananmen that’s stood at
@HKUniversity
since 1997) belongs in front of the Chicago headquarters of
@Mayer_Brown
, the US law firm hired to carry out the repressive national security law by demanding it come down.
At
@gmfus
today, we published a paper we've been researching for seven months on how donors should coordinate a Marshall Plan for Ukraine.
@NormEisen
& I wrote the chapter on anti-corruption, proposing five ways to ensure transparency & accountability. 🧵
@DavidSacks
You’re suggesting Ukraine give up enormous initiative while Russia regroups.
Concrete suggestions:
Stop assuming success as a tech entrepreneur lends itself to geopolitics or military strategy.
Stop suggesting how much of Ukraine belongs to Ukraine. It’s for Ukraine to decide.
Strong move for the USG to disclose this information, showing how the aggressive approach to declassifying Kremlin covert ops—which worked well in the run-up to the war in Ukraine—can be broadly extended to informing voters of assaults on democracy. 👏👏👏
SDNY is investigating possible laundering of Kremlin-linked financial aid to Trump Media.
When Trump's social media firm urgently needed cash to stay afloat in late 2021, it was wired $8m via obscure Caribbean entities tied to Putin ally Aleksandr Smirnov.
If a bill to facilitate voting, limit partisan gerrymandering, require campaign finance transparency, restore campaign fin. enforcement, and mandate paper ballots is only on the agenda of one political party, that doesn’t make it partisan. It makes the other party antidemocratic.
“Today, OFAC identified accounting, trust and corporate formation, and mgmt. consulting…as services…subject to a prohibition on the export, reexport, sale, or supply…from the U.S., or by a U.S. person, wherever located, to any person located in…Russia.”
If you're a friend of Ukraine watching the House speaker's race, you want to see three headlines:
1⃣ No floor vote (meaning no Republican has 217 votes without Democrats)
2⃣ No Jim Jordan
3⃣ More public insistence on Ukraine aid (⬇️) than we've seen yet
Let's go through this one in detail, given it's the most powerful pillar.
On real estate, the appendix in the back says Treasury will issue regulations with reporting requirements for those with valuable info on real estate transactions. That's very impressive in its breadth!
Putin's attitude toward Ukraine is like a man who beats his wife, and then long after she divorces him, he breaks through restraining orders to shout some madness about their historic unity making them one person.
Counterintel question
#1
arising from Trump’s taxes was: “To whom does he owe $421 million?”
Now we have question
#2
: “Who secretly funneled him over $21 million through a Las Vegas hotel and various shell companies when he was strapped for cash in 2016?”
Sure enough, this morning Treasury issued a notice of proposed rulemaking aiming to extend the ownership reporting obligations that title insurers currently face under GTOs to be permanent, nationwide, with no threshold, and include commercial real estate.
Some personal news: I'm honored to join
@USAID
's Anti-Corruption Task Force for the next six months as senior policy fellow. Feeling humbled and fortunate to get to work with and learn from world class pros at
@USAID
,
@SecureDemocracy
, and all you here. 🙏
Let's start with what
@IanTalley
and
@dnvolz
reported last night, which is that in addition to sanctions, Treasury will be taking actions this week to increase the transparency of corporate ownership and close loopholes in the real estate market.
This is totally unacceptable—US platforms aiding autocracy w/ new moves while people are voting.
The US executive branch won’t want to respond heavy handedly, which could play into election interference whataboutism.
This is a job for Congress. Start by announcing hearings now.
Importantly though, Treasury's notice also invites comments on going further, either by including others (like lawyers, realtors, escrow agents, etc.) in the reporting requirement or by imposing full AML obligations (CDD, SARs, etc.) on them. We've been waiting 20 years for that!
This is the risk-based approach that could change the world of dirty money. Whereas sanctions are like whack-a-mole, this is a way for the US gov't to send US financial institutions the bat signal about what risks to prioritize, rather than focusing only on technical compliance.
But this is a big move, Biden's strongest concrete step yet to root the proceeds of corruption out of the US financial system. Kleptocrats and oligarchs be warned: American bankers have just been regulatorily required to keep an eye out for your dirty money. 🔚
@mattia_n
Great to see all this reporting that the Senate and White House now want to go big on Ukraine aid!
Here’s my op-ed from Friday recommending $90 billion and suggesting a way to integrate it into the House Speaker’s race.
“Time to Go Big on Ukraine Aid”
If you want to know why Roman Abramovich is suing
@CatherineBelton
, read the biggest bombshell—confirmed by three sources—in her landmark book, "Putin's People." ⬇️
To see how this was a London replay of an operation in Russia's far east, buy the book. ➡️
Boom—bipartisan group of 38 lawmakers sends House appropriators this letter urging them to "significantly increase funding for FinCEN for FY22 ... to cost-effectively combat the illicit financial transactions that underlie a broad range of threats to US national security." 👏👏👏
This news out of Kyiv today is just as important as ATACMS but will get far less international attention because it sounds technical and boring.
The parliament just adopted an anti-corruption measure (lifelong PEP status) that meets the last big precondition for EU accession. 🧵
G7 Ambassadors welcome the Rada’s adoption of the legislation on politically exposed persons. The legislation is an important step in the fight against corruption, further integration with the EU, and securing a democratic and prosperous future for 🇺🇦
Boom—
@POTUS
opens the
#SummitforDemocracy
by unveiling his Initiative for Democratic Renewal—a plan to invest $424mn in a flotilla of 29 funds/programs to support independent media, anticorruption, democratic reformers, free internet, & electoral integrity!
@catecadell
@SecureDemocracy
Good thread. Should probably acknowledge though that extreme surveillance cuts both ways. Yes, it greatly raises the cost of protest. But it also fuels the desire to protest and to make it about more than just Covid. People seem sick of intrusion into every aspect of their lives.
3⃣ Accountability
The news headline here is that the admin. is launching a host of new programs at
@USTreasury
,
@StateDept
(working with partner democracies to fight safe haven!), &
@USAID
(global accountability program!) to hold crooks accountable, going well beyond sanctions!
Today, Treasury's FinCEN strongly delivered. They listed corruption first and opened with a discussion of Biden's presidential study on corruption and several channels through which it threatens US national security.
ALERT: Money that was made in Russia and is controlled by a billionaire with ties to sanctioned Russian oligarchs is now actively flowing into the U.S. 2020 election, and we're not having a thoughtful public debate over whether or not this is an acceptable risk for our democracy.
So now that he's sanctioned for bribery and influence peddling, if Delyan Peevski demands that his D.C. lobbyists at BGR Group repay the $180k he gave them since the November election to work out "issues in the US," they wouldn't even be allowed to oblige.
While it had been reported recently that Treasury was looking at real estate regs (although not nearly that broad), Treasury will also re-examine the 2015 draft rule for investment advisors and they're open to expanding it to cover private placement funds offered by the firms. 👍
I wrote four months ago about how this report is statutorily due today and will be the only chance within the four-year term to put Biden's stamp on US AML priorities, so even at this busy time for FinCEN they need to work quickly and emphasize corruption.
The silver lining to the rapid pace at which Musk is destroying the remaining equity value of Twitter is that the lenders will probably take over and oust him just in time for new management to rebuild it as a somewhat responsible information space going into the 2024 election.
But the best part of the release is the overall commitment to targeting corruption.
Today's words and actions from
@USTreasury
OFAC are a strong way to say happy
#UNGASS2021
week.
Read more below about how the fight against corruption needs economists.
@ScottMStedman
I wrote up this argument in FP earlier this year (although I said double it to start) and I’m told this piece was helpful for getting the administration to request a 50% increase (which the House has now passed and it’s sitting w/ Senate appropriators). 🤞
Beyond real estate and investment advisors, the administration wants to work with Congress to secure additional authorities covering lawyers, accountants, TCSPs, and others (left image).
In all but name, this is a Biden administration endorsement of the ENABLERS Act (right img)!
“Autocrats and oligarchs often employ a crude but effective tactic to kill stories they don’t like: they sue reporters.”
@PowerUSAID
announces, “we are launching a global Defamation Defense Fund to protect journalists against lawsuits that are designed to deter them.” 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
Announcing plans to do this was a key recommendation of my report on enablers:
And it was recommended last week by
@FACTCoalition
,
@IllicitFlows
, and
@transparencyUSA
:
That re-examination should include six expansions. ⬇️
And while those are the top news-making headlines in pillar 2⃣ on curbing illicit finance, there's more in there as well, including aggressive enforcement, offshore finance, digital assets, art and antiquities, and commitment to cover additional sectors.
Over the past 24 hours, I’ve been asked by journalists all over the world whether my research suggests their country might be among the two dozen countries where Russian money has infiltrated politics. Nowhere is this question coming up more than in Italy.
I also liked the bombshell revelation that Vassil Bojkov plans to bribe Bulgarians to create a channel for the Kremlin to influence the Bulgarian gov't. Now that Bojkov's new political party (Bulgarian Summer) is sanctioned, how will Russia support it? Winter has come for Bojkov.
Monday's letter from the House successfully pressured the President to sign the long-awaited second round of CBW sanctions on Russia for the Skripal poisoning, but Trump seems to have chosen the weaker options and it could be diluted further with waivers.
@JFKucinich
Whenever I see this vulgar harassment (almost always directed at women), I wonder why social media platforms can’t help more. It strikes me as absurd that
@Twitter
makes you redact this creep’s name. Looking fw to learning more about this issue in
@wiczipedia
’s forthcoming book.
As an alum and as a human being, I’d really appreciate it if the rest of the 450 student organizations at Harvard would band together and write a response calling this “they got the terrorism they deserved” statement morally repulsive.
large number of harvard student organizations blaming israel solely for hamas terrorist attacks killing 700 civilians.
can’t imagine who would want to identify with such a group. harvard parents—talk to your educated kids about this.
4⃣ Multilateral architecture
The administration will redouble anti-corruption efforts across the range of multilateral fora, including the OECD, OAS, UNCAC, NATO, G20, G7, OGP, EITI, etc.
This gives US missions to these bodies important marching orders to prioritize corruption.
Whether the victim is Czechoslovakia in 1968 or Ukraine today, it has always been less about keeping NATO out than keeping imperial subjects in.
That’s also what made the Berlin Wall different from other walls: It was meant to keep people in, not out.
What messages did Russia, Turkey, China, and Iran spread in Germany in June?
@kristineberz
,
@blutguth
, and David Metzger explain in their latest analysis of data from our 2021 German Elections Dashboard.
Actually, let’s give the last word to
@SecYellen
&
@PowerUSAID
, who are leading
@USTreasury
&
@USAID
to steal the show this week, using their policy levers and strong voices to kick off the Summit for Democracy w/ a bang and tee up a year of action. 👏👏👏
I’ll betcha FinCEN is sitting on some suspicious activity reports showing whose money goes to NSO and why. But I wonder whether they’ve had time to look.
The most important national security investment Congress could make in the FY2022 budget is a substantial boost for FinCEN.
NEW: I can report that NSO Group's "US branch" Westbridge Technologies received loans worth up to $265,000,000 from Credit Suisse's Cayman Islands branch. NSO has repeatedly sworn in court that they had no US operations.
With regards to beneficial ownership, FinCEN is expected to release the rule that they've been drafting most of this year prescribing which entities will have to report their ownership information to Treasury. OIRA completed its final review of the draft rule four days ago (⬇️).
It's past time to outlaw anonymous shell companies.
From our forthcoming year-long research report on how authoritarians spend money interfering in democracy, here are six cases of the attack vector being a shell co.:
Moscow to Moldova, Latvia, Cyprus, Paris, London & Delaware.
🚨 Read this as: The autocratic Turkish gov’t. (which shut down Twitter after the earthquake to hide criticism of Erdogan) threatened to sue and shut down Twitter unless it restricts (in some undisclosed way) what Turks see on Twitter amid tomorrow’s election. And Twitter agreed.
In response to legal process and to ensure Twitter remains available to the people of Turkey, we have taken action to restrict access to some content in Turkey today.
The intelligence community is right to point to 2014 as the year when the Kremlin dramatically escalated the scope of its financial interference operations.
Putin authorized campaigns against Europe in 2014, the United States in 2016, and Africa in 2018.
With Kari Lake’s loss, democracy won a clean sweep vs. the 16 candidates who’d have been poised to overthrow the 2024 election (the 16 on the ballot last week to be either Governor or Sec. of State who refused to say whether they’d have certified Biden’s 2020 win in their state).
Tonight, the GOP GOVERNOR Candidates Who Refused To Say If They'd Have Certified Biden's 2020 Win In Their States:
❔Kari Lake, Arizona
❌ Tim Michels, Wisconsin
❌ Tudor Dixon, Michigan
❌ Doug Mastriano, PA
❌ Darren Bailey, Illinois
❌ Dan Cox, Maryland
❌ Lee Zeldin, NY
5⃣ Diplomacy & foreign assistance
This pillar is last but not least, second in importance to illicit finance. Diplomats/embassies/aid will prioritize corruption. The US will reevaluate aid criteria, scale it up/down, etc. The last bullet is seemingly on Afghanistan among others.
And here are six sets of unanswered questions, such as who’s the unnamed wealthy Russian financier behind Lev’s donations, how close is that Russian to the Kremlin, how did other US operatives get paid, was more money coming from Firtash, and what did each of these payments buy?
@Teoyaomiquu
@UROCKlive1
Probably the same Western haters who call Biden’s election a coup. They don’t deserve your explanation. Ukrainians fight for all our freedom. Thank you.
@PreetBharara
She’s even better in person than she is on a transcript: whip-smart, tough as nails, unfailing judgement, deeply experienced, always considerate, generous mentor, deeply patriotic. You’d like her.
Priority
#2
is cyber and
#3
is terrorism (including domestic).
Last on the list is proliferation financing, the issue that was prioritized by a Trump appointee who in 2002 was a DOD official warning about Iraqi WMDs and who later served as Trump's special envoy for arms control.
We thought Boris Johnson suppressed the
#RussiaReport
b/c it names Russian donors to Tories. And it does talk about that threat. But the most damning conclusion is about the gov't itself, which "actively avoided looking for evidence that Russia interfered."
These brave Iranians are thanking him for having their back.
Read about how "in the Iranian context, 'death to the dictator' has long been a symbolic slogan of dissent against Iran’s theocratic authoritarian system, rather than a call for actual death." ⬇️
Four-point deal on Nord Stream 2:
1️⃣ Germany and the US to invest $50 million in Ukrainian green tech
2️⃣ German support for Three Seas
3️⃣ Ukraine keeps getting $3 billion in annual transit fees from Russia
4️⃣ US can sanction future Russian energy coercion
Here’s the homicidal dictator himself actually calling for the death of named American politicians—in a tweet that has not been taken down. WTF,
@Twitter
?
"Down with USA" means down with
@realDonaldTrump
,
@AmbJohnBolton
and
@SecPompeo
. It means death to the American politicians currently in power. It means death to the few people running that country; we have nothing against the American nation.
Good news: In recent weeks, the Biden administration has ramped up pressure on Kyiv—via a demarch, a list, meetings, etc.—to keep advancing anti-corruption reforms. This helps with Congressional funding.
Story well told by
@NatashaBertrand
&
@MarquardtA
:
The US is increasingly urging Ukraine to do more to combat corruption, issuing several notices to Kyiv in the last few weeks indicating that certain kinds of US economic aid will be linked to Ukraine’s progress in reforming its institutions. w/
@MarquardtA
We start by setting the record straight on Ukrainian anti-corruption.
Here's what the Kremlin and its useful idiots leave out from their narrative about corruption in Ukraine:
Never in history has a nation built such a sweeping array of anti-corruption institutions in a decade.
That was before the
#PandoraPapers
, which revealed lots of dirty money flowing into US trusts. Here's a thread on how FinCEN should write its rule to maximize the extent to which the registry can cover trusts, within some significant statutory constraints.
1⃣ The CTA requires a "corporation, LLC, or other similar entity that's created by the filing of a document with a secretary of state or a similar office" under state law disclose its true owners to Treasury. Treasury needs to interpret "other similar entity" as including trusts.
I had missed this in the NDAA: Treasury or DOJ can now subpoena records related to any account at a foreign bank with correspondent accounts in the United States. Nice new tool for investigating dirty foreign money. 👍
The closest the administration has come to acknowledging they’ll be gone on January 20 is that they’re scheduling to take away the Fed’s tools to stabilize the economy three weeks before inauguration, to the dismay of the Fed & even conservative economists.
FinCEN will issue regs telling banks how to incorporate these priorities into their AML compliance programs (left).
Another follow up should be issuing advisories about Russia and China. Weird that they've basically never done that in FinCEN's history of 173 advisories (right).