Jim Sullivan @JimSullivan92 Twitter profile

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

In a couple of weeks, my time in NJ and at WeatherWorks will be coming to an end as I start as a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Cleveland. I’ve worked with great people at WeatherWorks and there will be some hard goodbyes. But, I am excited about this next chapter.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Sunday-Monday eastern US storm potential...Anomalous closed low interacting with a tropical moisture feed, strong jet, cold/dry air and potentially phasing with the next polar shortwave. Powder keg. But lots of moving pieces still, and somewhat of a needle thread up I-95. 1/10

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

I work my first midnight shift at the NWS tonight. I’m honestly kind of excited. Not necessarily to work at midnight so much as for the Taco Bell breakfast that I intend to get after work.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

Increased blocking and cold trends come to North America soon, but extended ensembles maintain a southeast ridge in late Jan...Why? Enhancement of La Nina forcing and a quick trend to negative E Asian mountain torque weaken the Pacific jet "too much", favoring a -PNA and SE Ridge

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

6 months

🧵1/4: Pacific jet reaches peak extension the next 5 days, amplifying a Pacific-dominated +PNA/+EPO pattern. Then, the jet retracts as momentum gets dispersed through a series of wave breaks. This allows the ridging to sharpen and retrograde, cutting off Pacific influence.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

After struggling mightily with the Pacific pattern through December...WOOF...extended jet resulting in a milder spell next week retracts and settles into a configuration allowing for an Aleutian low/West Coast ridge. Some sub-tropical jet too. Second half of January looks wintry.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

4 months

While the next ~12 days will feature a couple of colder periods in the east, the ensembles show a very inhospitable Pacific pattern by next weekend, scouring out the cold and putting a wrap on meteorological winter. The second consecutive joke of a winter for many.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

6 months

Forecast 2m temperature departures through Xmas Eve...Pacific dominated/mild pattern that will be slow to break. Deja vu to last winter. Easy on heating costs but not ideal farther north where local economies and ecosystems count on having real winters with persistent snow cover.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

@kylegriffin1 Then, McCarthy voted to overturn certain states’ election results just hours later, so he didn’t really care that the mob was occurring, he just cared that they were threatening his personal safety.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

6 months

🧵1/2: Persistent Ural Highlands-Scandinavian ridging, resultant descending surface high east of the Himalayas, and coherent tropical forcing moving out of the Indian Ocean into the western Pacific will put plenty of pressure on the stratospheric polar vortex mid-late December.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

Note trends on the last couple of Euro ensemble runs near Nova Scotia...the 50/50 low has gone away and with a +NAO nothing to stop that from happening. This is what makes any Jan 13-14 eastern US snow potential a needle thread and is why recent ensembles look much less snowy.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Weaker mid-level stability on the edge of the dryslot combined with deformation and fgen, which will intensify as ascent cools the mid-levels and packs the thermals on the edge of the TROWAL, will combine to allow snow to rip from S/E OH and W PA into W NY and S ON tonight.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

6 months

Dynamic snow shower/squall set-up across Ohio Monday aft'n-eve before activity becomes focused downwind of Lake Erie overnight. Brief heavy snow showers with strong winds/low visibility look likely. It is uncertain how much the snow can stick to roads until close to/after sunset.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

Significant trend for more cold air damming ahead of the Wednesday - Thursday storm on the 0z GEFS. Results in increased potential for heavy snow along I-95 all the way into northern VA! This cold air damming will funnel in legitimate Arctic air!

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

The over-extended Pacific jet...the bringer of relentless rain to California and culprit of winter's absence farther east...is about to weaken a lot. This will give the west coast a break and gradually increase polar influence into central and eastern North America in late Jan.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

This may be the heaviest non-lake effect snow I’ve personally seen. Visibility slightly better than 500 feet

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Watching for where the TROWAL interacts with deformation beneath the right-entrance of a jet streak. Resultant thermal packing/fgen can focus banded snow. Soundings support CSI and heavy rates. Western cut-off will be sharp and tricky. Eying the W NY, W PA, far E OH vicinity.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

I'm open to the idea of cold trying to press into the eastern US after ~Feb 20th...until then it looks predominantly mild to very mild for the east once the near-term cold exits. A mean western US trough (-PNA) and north Atlantic trough (+NAO) allow the southeast ridge to flex.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

5 months

After a couple of southern tracking shortwaves Jan 3-4 and 6-7, good agreement that a -NAO/-AO/-PNA takes hold the second week of January. This would favor cold into the west, attempts at a SE ridge, and an active storm track in between, kicked off by a likely cutter Jan 9-10.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

With guidance depicting a shortwave and jet support rounding a ridge as a huge EML advects east to start the week, definitely potential for one or more MCSs with damaging wind/heavy rain potential between the Upper Midwest, southern Great Lakes & Ohio Valley. Some analog support.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

🧵1/4 Today's ensembles depicted a period of ridging near the West Coast into Alaska and have trended towards a modest -NAO developing in late January, displacing the polar vortex towards Hudson Bay and briefly suppressing the "southeast ridge". Is this feasible?

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

I dropped the ball by not posting this Friday. But while I have you here, I had the pleasure of driving home 10 minutes after we hit the button on a blizzard warning for the county the office is in. Here were the conditions I encountered on a major highway near Cleveland.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

The medium range ensembles all have a “ridge bridge” across the Arctic in the 10-15 day mean…this is reasonable, and if correct means North America is going to get much colder for late January. The worst of the cold would go into the western and central US, at least initially.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

4 months

The Groundhog has spoken. The European ensemble seems to raise concern about its prediction though, showing a literal 180 degree pattern flip along the West Coast and North Atlantic by mid-February. If the current pattern is "mild" and you flip it 180 degrees you get "not mild".

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Long/straight hodos support a hail/gusty wind (but fairly low tornado) risk in NW OH Wednesday. More low-level curvature ahead of the cold front (and near the warm front) in E OH/N WV support more dominant right-movers with potentially higher tornado risk pending destabilization.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Tropical cyclones help transport heat to the high latitudes. Fiona's phase with a *sharp* tropopause fold (and resultant SEVERE storm for Atlantic Canada) will transfer tons of heat poleward, backing up the pattern and digging a trough over eastern North America into next week.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

Tornado on the ground near/just east of Cole @NWSNorman

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Great Lakes meteorology is underrated

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

With regards to this weekend along the East Coast...pieces are there for a wave along the Arctic front to produce a swath of snow. But with a +NAO, confluence over New England, and lots of other pieces interacting it's a sensitive set-up. Don't get married to any one solution yet

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

4 years

@ZackMeisel Pretty sure the Rangers won that trade with Kluber’s 1 IP this season.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

5 months

Progressive/low-amplitude shortwave and low snow ratios limit the maximum snow the interior Mid Atlantic and Northeast can see this weekend...maybe a 6-10" type swath, more in the mountains. A juiced airmass and jet still support a swath of moderate wet snow at the least.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

The progressive nature and marginal surface temps are limiting factors for Sunday's snow in Ohio...but good jet support, sloped frontogenesis/isentropic lift, and weak stability in/above the DGZ may aid in a brief period of decent rates riding up along/east of the I-71 corridor.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

The -NAO is already causing fun trends with the Sunday-Monday Nor'easter. The -NAO has trended a bit stronger ahead of it, with the low ahead of Sunday's storm slower to depart. This encourages a slower forward motion and faster deepening of the Sun-Mon system. 1/3

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

It's a subtle trend, but increased influence from the lobe of the polar vortex near Hudson Bay is likely the main culprit behind the eastward trend on the models for the Friday night-Saturday winter storm.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

Interesting convective setup Thursday in parts of the Midwest. Surface heating beneath cold mid levels can result in modest instability with strong shear & ascent ahead of a sharp shortwave and front. Hi-res models depict an arc of low-topped storms racing northeast as a result.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

The snow in KC over-performed slightly this morning.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Large aggregates trying to cover the turnpike with slushy snow at midday on April 18th in Lorain County. Love to see it.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

7 months

A strong +East Asian Mountain Torque, ongoing early in the loop, and a Kelvin Wave across the Pacific are adding plenty of momentum to the Pacific jet. This will get dispersed through a series of Rossby wave breaks over the northern Pacific and amplify ridging near Alaska. 1/2

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

4 months

This is the type of quasi-stationary banding that busted snow forecasts in the Ohio Valley today. Rates likely 2”+ an hour in the heart of the band.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

🧵1/6 Who ordered a persistent/strong -NAO over Baffin Island and Greenland later this week through mid-December as Pacific shortwaves eject east across the CONUS and get pinned under the NAO block, carving out an eastern US trough as the PNA slowly rises? European ensemble:

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

There will likely be two distinct bands of convection in the warm sector SE of Fred's sfc low this afternoon and evening as convergence bands move into greater CAPE. Conditions already support a tornado risk, though don't peak until after 4 PM...it'll be a busy afternoon-evening.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

4 years

Hot take: New Jersey and SE PA just got raked by a DERECHO.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

Not common to be able see a cell that’s 50 miles away from the sticks of NW NJ!

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Surface convergence zones are moving into a destabilizing warm sector, with a vort max glancing the region with ascent/stronger flow. Generally a run-of-the-mill threat, but with some tornado closer to the warm front pending destabilization in a higher SRH, low LCL environment.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

6 months

Pacific influence likely backs off into January. For fun, extended range ensembles valid Jan 1. EPS has a quicker pattern change resulting in widespread cool anomalies across the US on 1/1. My hunch is the EPS pattern change is too fast & its temperatures too cold for that soon.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

7 months

A sharp trough and cold front push across Ohio late Tues. The front itself brings some snow showers. For the Cle metro and snowbelt, a short but intense burst of lake effect likely pastes those away from the warm lake with their first wet accumulation of the season by early Weds.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

I feel that the strong upper-level divergence, low to mid-level WAA and resultant fgen argue for higher QPF, closer to the NAM...the HRRR QPF seems conceptually too light. The 12z HREF also had more QPF. Poor snow ratios will somewhat limit totals, but I think the QPF is there

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

0z HRRR sounding ahead of storms over northern OH Sat PM: Well-mixed/moist low-levels, cool/dry mid-levels (2500 MLCAPE, 1200 DCAPE), 30kt of shear. With upper level diffluence, a vortmax and a cold front moving into high theta-e air at peak heating, there will be some severe wx.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

HRRR 700mb fgen lines up well with current E VA-NJ band. Suggests current band intensifies and expands a bit over S NJ the next few hours then lightens...not as intense W/NW of this band. Also suggests the NJ shore and LI getting nuked for several hours with 1-2"+/hr rates Sat AM

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

I have to remind myself sometimes...if you have a supercell with strong CAPE you can get severe hail with poor lapse rates. But, 2.5" hail in Bergen County, NJ with such poor mid-level lapse rates is nuts. This storm was *extremely* impressive aloft on radar, and that'll do it!

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

This is a 30-day mean forecast. Get your sleep while you can ya weens

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

A west-based -NAO, 50/50 low, strong shortwave with good wave spacing in front of/behind it, high pressure in a good spot over SE Canada, and seasonably cold air both ahead of and behind our wave, puts a lot of ingredients in place for a winter storm Sunday-Tuesday. 1/8

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

Quite likely that this is a strong tornado on the ground near Woodridge and Darien, IL SW of Chicago. Debris lofted over 15k feet and about 60 knots of vrot in that couplet.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

This was a good snow today

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

As parts of the central, southern, and eastern U.S. and southern Ontario start to dig out from one major winter storm, a look at last night's GFS run shows that the "Arctic faucet" is poised to remain on and pointed at the Lower 48 for the next 2+ weeks. I'm here to please folks.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

4 years

@Zak_NYCMetroWx @SethAbramson Yeah, it’s critical for Trump to get voted out and uh (actually) drain the swamp (that he’s created). Biden should spend the next 4.5 months calling out all of the bullshit this administration has & is pulling...his most powerful message isn’t “vote for me” it’s “vote out Trump”

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

A trough amplifies over the eastern US Jan 13-14 between a Rockies ridge and 50/50 low, and many ensemble members have a low off the coast. Intriguing signal. With little blocking, a marginal airmass, and temperamental Pacific it's touchy...if any key features move it falls apart

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

The HRRR has consistently had a fascinating but concerning high wind signal pre-dawn Thursday in parts of Ohio. Stratiform rain from dying convection moves into dry air...evaporative cooling and isentropic descent tug strong low-level jet towards ground. May cause damaging gusts.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

QPF on the last 6 HRRR runs through 6 AM Sunday. We'll see exactly how correct it is, but the signal for incredibly heavy rain along an inverted trough over parts of central/southern NJ into parts of SE PA is strong. Flash Flood Watches are out, and it may be quite bad somewhere.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Impressive agreement on the 0z GFS/Euro ensembles on a -EPO, -PNA, -NAO pattern bringing a return to more widespread cold across the CONUS in early December after a brief break. A -PNA suggests the coldest goes out west with attempts at a SE ridge causing more variability east.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

Spit balling a bit... Usually when we get a surface pattern like this the warm front struggles to lift north. Highest QPF will be where the deform zone interacts with convection. Convection will be fairly tied to the front. 12z HREF highest QPF placement generally seems fair IMO.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

Impressive dynamics with Thursday's tornado outbreak in OH/PA A potent shortwave brought strong PVA, height falls/cooling aloft, upper-level divergence and shear as a cold front moved through a weakly unstable environment. That's how you get the most out of 500 J/KG of CAPE.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Not quite snowing enough to stick to the beard…but, a gorgeous winter day out in Geauga County, OH nonetheless.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

The various ensemble mean patterns for Dec 16-21 all depict a huge ridge from the northeast Pacific to the North Pole, along with a lingering west-based -NAO. A very cold look for much of the Lower 48 leading up to the holidays, with extreme cold into the northern Rockies/Plains.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

Eek, even this little amount of low-level CAPE with just a weak inversion would spell for a nasty, nocturnal low-topped squall line from the Carolinas up through PA and NJ on Christmas Eve with this amount of forcing and shear. Hopefully it's a little more stable...

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

This thread has radar imagery of the most "suspicious" damage reports or radar signatures in eastern PA/NJ from Thursday's outbreak (there were more tornadoes farther west in PA). Surveys will confirm how many of these were tornadoes...this thread may not be all inclusive either:

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

🧵1/4 : So, this Monday night frontogenetic snow band from N PA/S NY towards NJ (potentially including Philly or NYC) is intriguing. In a disappointing winter it's a potentially impactful snow. While inconsistent on location/intensity, most models have this playing out somewhere.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

With models still bouncing around (but generally trending more amped) for the Sat Nt - Sunday coastal low and snow, it's important to keep stock of what may result in trends (in either direction). Lots of moving pieces still (NAM used to mark these features only) 1/8

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

The perks of living downwind of a Great Lake. Most models had <1” of snow here for yesterday and last night.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

With a +EPO (all the low pressure near the BC coast), a mild spell across most of N. America looks hard to avoid around the beginning of December. There are signs of the next period of blocking showing up at the end of the EPS run...I buy it and don't think we stay mild for long.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

@JomboyMedia Rather horrible announcing. That was about an inch off. Not 6. It should’ve been called a ball but 1” is a lot different than 6”, so I’m told.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

5 months

Here's a blog post along with a thought-provoking EPS 500mb loop

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

This certainly overperformed. Example #7348 of strong shear/forcing taking advantage of all buoyancy available. Likely that the warm front, locally augmented by the lake breeze, locally increased the tornado threat from extreme SE MI into NW OH.

Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

NE IN and SE MI into OH later Thursday: Modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse rates, but increasing shear/forcing ahead of a shortwave and front, dry air aloft, and long/straight hodographs may support a large hail/wind risk with any sufficiently strong/persistent storms.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

Me, describing this storm over drinks with someone 5 years from now: “And then it just kept f*cking snowing!” I have nowhere to measure, but based on surrounding reports and eyeballing it’s about 2 feet and of course, still snowing.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 months

🧵1/2: Nice setup Sunday for lake enhanced snow with a 500mb low dropping across Lake Erie. Upstream connections and upslope will help. Event peaks for 9-12 hrs, mainly in daylight in March with a warm ground, so persistent snow and terrain will be needed for the heaviest accums.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Certainly getting our fill of Alaska/North Pacific ridging this winter after not seeing it as much the last few. This will keep dumping cold into the lower 48 through at least the first half of March, keeping any warmer weather fleeting.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

The winter of 2022-2023 has finally produced a solid low pressure near the 40/70 benchmark. It isn't producing notable snow for the I-95 corridor and actually has a warm core, but is a low pressure located near the benchmark in January regardless.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Jet support, strong isentropic lift/sloped fgen + weak stability support a quick thump of snow on the northern edge of a precip shield Tues PM across the southern Great Lakes/vicinity. Heavy rates/dynamic cooling can cause quick/slushy roadway accums under a narrow heavy band.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

Anomalous set-up leading to anomalously strong low pressure in the eastern Great Lakes Friday: -500mb heights + 850 mb temps outside of Dec 13-Jan 3 climo -200mb meridional winds nearly outside of climo -Leads to a 4-5 standard deviation low next to a 2-3 standard deviation high

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

5 months

Here's a blog post and a loop of European ensemble mean 12z temperatures over the next two weeks:

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

🧵1/4: You know it's a good -NAO when your giant cutter trends towards something that could be a Miller B Nor'easter off the NJ or southern New England coast at the end of next week. GEFS trending towards a better 50/50 low, deeper trough, better wave spacing to the west:

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

All of Ohio is pink

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

When the entire troposphere is a snow squall

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

99th+percentile southerly 850mb winds progged to advect climo-max+ PWATs into the right-rear quad of an upper jet with 99th+percentile southerly winds ahead of Nicole in the Northeast. Ensembles highlighting large corridor of 2"+ rain potential near I-95. The ground is fairly dry

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

The long range ensembles agree on a +EPO, +AO, +NAO, and -PNA the second week of December, which is supported by a strong lower-stratospheric polar vortex. Cold shots may still clip the Great Lakes and New England with a PV near Hudson Bay but it'd be mild much of the CONUS. 1/4

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

A cold shot early next week will try to set the stage for midweek snow from parts of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes to the Northeast, but the fast/zonal pattern makes this setup a needle thread at best. I'd temper expectations...best shot for anything of note likely the interior NE.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Overall, a swath of snow is likely in the central US as the initial clipper dives down, with all kinds of potential up the East Coast Sun-Mon. But several different outcomes are on the table for the east, and models are really moving around still. So, let's sit back and see. 10/F

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

🧵1/2: Hi-res models are strongly signaling an intense band of snow from parts of central/eastern IN into northwest OH, southeast MI, and southern ON Wednesday. They advertise a strong signal for 1-2"/hr rates with soundings very supportive of heavy snow and large flakes.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

1 year

🧵2/2: The signal is synoptically supported by incredible dynamics and jet support ahead of a sharp negatively tilted shortwave. Strong isentropic lift and frontogenesis beneath this jet support can lead to bands of heavy precipitation, with slantwise convection possible.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

700mb fgen farther removed from the surface warm sector than 850mb fgen, a sloped frontal surface. Near conditional instability+upper jet supporting horizontal accelerations up the isentropes will support slantwise convection and intense, banded snow into Friday AM. It will rip.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Big instability being released. Can see the expanding inflow into what is quickly developing into a large MCS from NE IL into SE MI that may end up producing a swath of significant wind damage through the evening as it accelerates east/southeast along the instability gradient.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

6 months

Decent agreement that a briefly cold airmass, along with lingering moist/cyclonic flow behind the east coast low, will bring NW flow lake effect downwind of Lake Erie and flurries/snow showers to much of the rest of Ohio Monday PM-Tuesday AM. Some mood flakes for the holidays!

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

Trends on recent EPS runs for the 50/50 low to be farther east, a slower & more consolidated shortwave, more amped SE ridge, and location of the PV over S'rn Canada all support the more amped/north solutions for Mon-Tues. The trough over the SW may also influence this either way.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

11 months

Favorable shear/forcing and instability for organized convection continuing over IN/OH another few hours. Near sfc stability a limiting factor, but sufficient shear for mesovort formation in N-S oriented lines + increasing DCAPE supports spotty wind/brief tornado risk with bows.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

This is the most interesting looking deer I’ve ever seen. He also was ok with crossing the trail right in front of me after I stood still long enough.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

Siberia is the big Northern Hemisphere cold source (for North America and Europe). N Pac (-EPO) and Greenland (-NAO) blocks direct cross polar flow from Siberia into AK and w'rn Canada over the coming weeks, but most of that goes into carving out deep western trough. 1/13

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

This remains an unusually volatile situation from lower Bucks/Mont PA into central/southern NJ with 3 areas of rotation on radar. The one in Bucks County has a tornado debris signature, and the one moving into Monmouth County has a recent history. Continue heeding all warnings.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

2 years

I'd say that I'm actually a little jealous of the spots in southern Ohio that have seen 2-3" of sleet this afternoon and evening, but I feel like that kind of commentary isn't exactly canon on #WxTwitter .

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

6 months

🧵4/4: Strong signal for a stratospheric warming event in early January. However, a strong reversal of the East Asian Mountain Torque and MJO potentially working into phases 3-4 suggest a temporary -PNA (western US trough, SE ridge) risk towards mid-January.

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Jim Sullivan

@JimSullivan92

3 years

Apparently it’s quite windy along Lake Erie today. Limbs of varying size down in Cleveland and Lakewood. This was my attempt to capture dramatic video...it’s not that dramatic. Probably gusting to 45ish here.

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