Jason Tower is the Myanmar Country Director at USIP. Jason focuses on peace and security issues in Southeast Asia, with a particular focus on China and Myanmar.
Myanmar army surrenders to the MNDAA, completely exits KK; two brigadier generals, including junta SAZ leader Tun Tun Myint drink with MNDAA before returning to junta; MNDAA unveils victory wine; territories surrendered include critical UWSP territory bordering Kokang (circled)
Propping up an illegitimate regime: China dramatically increases support for Myanmar’s junta: Read out of junta visit👇
- Work with junta administrative council to implement China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, and expand cross-border electrification, connectivity, industrial zones
The MNDAA raise their flag over the gate to Chinshwehaw; their battle to take over the crime city run by Min Aung Hlaing’s “drug army” has begun. MNDAA announcements emphasize taking out the scam syndicates as one of their key objectives.
China’s support for Myanmar’s junta regime deepens — new training program for junta administrators offers modules on “emergency response” among a range of other topics.
Myanmar’s military has lost control of substantial sections of the border with China, as forces fighting the coup regime coordinate in an unprecedented way. New
@USIP
looks at implications for PRC-Myanmar relations, the pig-butchering crisis and the future:
300 scam centers taken down, over 40,000 people sent back to China as a result of Operation 1027; MNDAA commander Peng Deren’s New Year speech also notes that 3BHA has taken 1000+ POWs, and MNDAA is doubling down on its commitment to topple the military dictatorship.
Another major achievement by the MNDAA — taking the Kunlong New Bridge built by China Aid, and completed only back in June of 2023. MNDAA now controls the two key Myanmar towns that make up the Lincang-Chinshwehaw-Kunlong Cross Border Economic Cooperation Zone
War over a crime city: the Myanmar army and its border guard force mobilize to protect transnational criminal operations and scam syndicates in Shwe Kokko from resistance forces
MNDAA announces that it has liberated Laukkai; pictures of Peng Deren “back home” surface on social media. Meanwhile, reports that Myanmar army Kokang SAZ head BG Tun Tun Myint has fled.
Tatmadaw collapse? CiC of the UWSA Bao Youxiang speech at Wa military academy: “As the war gets closer to the core of Burma, the Tatmadaw is on the brink of exhaustion… if the Tatmadaw throws the helve after the hatchet, there will be disastrous consequences for all of Burma.”
Excellent
@dwnews
interview with NUG FM
@ZinMarAungNUG
at the Munich Security Conference; touches on the state of the conflict; the Myanmar army’s global forced labor scam operations and China; notes China’s failure to engage the NUG at the conference.
In Chinese state media, Myanmar “relevant local law enforcement bodies,” and not the military junta are given credit for the 31,000 people Chinese police claim have been sent back across the border. Chinese language report describes this as “special cooperation”
JIPA, Myanmar Crisis: Myanmar Needs a Military, Just Not the one it has, “The Tatmadaw is a cancer.
Until and unless it changes dramatically, there is little hope for Myanmar to achieve peace…
the current institution needs to
be torn down”
@MarcielScot
,
MNDAA Special Region 1 (Kokang) “Martial Law Committee” issues two important statements: (1) demands that all junta troops surrender immediately, hand over weapons, and in turn will receive guarantees for their lives and assets from the MNDAA;
A dramatic example of why the Myanmar army represents a direct threat to global security: About 500 foreign nationals are reportedly being held by regime forces in the town of Laukkai, where fighting between the junta and an ethnic alliance is escalating:
Min Aung Hlaing cronies in Kokang targeted by arrest warrants from China; includes Kokang BGF founder Bai Suocheng, and Fully Light Group President Liu Zhengxiang + BGF 1006 commander Wei San. Makes the likelihood of Laukkai falling to MNDAA almost certain absent other PRC moves.
New USIP feature from Gun Maw, Yee Mon and Min Ko Naing
“The junta’s terrorist tactics are failing on all fronts. For us, this is our last, best chance at seeing a future for Myanmar free from the darkness and cancerous tumor that is the military.”
While chaos across Myanmar continues, civil war over strategic logistics routes near the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor escalates, with the Wa seeing an opportunity to consolidate control of territory on the Thai border. A sign of desperation: RCSS first statement in Chinese.
Remarkable development in Shan state with national implications: Shan State Army North (SSPP) and South (RCSS) enter into a ceasefire, and agree to stop spreading negative speech about one another. This a setback for the Myanmar army which benefited from armed conflict btw them.
Breaking: Chinese police issue arrest warrants for two key Wa elites, including He Chuntian, Mayor of Mengneng County, Wa Region and Bao Yanban, UWSA former head of Brig 468; award for up to 50K RMB for information leading to arrest ; will MAH’s Kokang cronies be next?
“It is questionable whether China has reversed its previous position when it said Beijing will stand by our people in the return of power to the people. Has it now taken a one-sided approach? Is Beijing standing on the other side against theMyanmar people?”
Chinese pressure results in new deal btw Myanmar junta and 3BHA; Northern Alliance announces junta recognizes MNDAA territory (SR1); MNDAA and junta agree to share customs tax revenue 70-30 (Chinshwehaw); parties agree to pull troops from frontlines and safeguard China interests
Myanmar army border guard force scam centers in ruins as MNDAA defeats military forces in Laukkai on 12/26; takes over key parts of the city, including police battalion 21 headquarters; takes key POWs including junta deputy KK police leader Li Fushou
Kyaukphyu: While the rest of the country is sick with Covid and fighting for democracy, Myanmar’s Junta is urgently hiring legal help to advance the KPSEZ…
In KK Park, on the Myanmar-Thai border, those who refuse to scam face torture, starvation and even murder.
@dwnews
investigates one of Asia's most brutal scam compounds.
With war raging in Myawaddy, and the Myanmar junta on the brink, Karen state’s forced labor fraud factories continue pig-butchering operations, some newer criminal compounds emerging as far as 61 miles from Shwekokko. Our latest on this crisis
@USIP
:
MNDAA continues to hold key positions taken since starting 1027, and is openly working with Chinese police at Chinshwehaw gate, processing the return of Chinese nationals, this time rescued from Lashio.
Total Chaos in Northern Myanmar (thread 10/28-30)
+ Operation 1027: MNDAA capture of 57 junta positions, controls key highway checkpts
+ Kokang BGF hangs on to scam centers in Laukkaing (老街)
+ Junta defense Minister arrives in Beijing for XS security forum
MNDAA publish Op-Ed: The Death of Ming Xuechang:
- The Myanmar army killed him because he knew too much
- junta is the real head of the criminal organization; Ming turned over large share of stolen funds from scams to junta
- Ming is a traitor; position from the army (8-8)
Myanmar’s military has neither the will nor the capacity to manage its own Border Guard Forces (BGF), much less curb the reach of transnational crime from enclaves under BGF control.
My new article with Priscilla Clapp
@USIP
“The AA is now one of the largest, most disciplined, best equipped and battle-tested of Myanmar’s EAOs. Harnessed to the armed national resistance, it is a power the junta has good reason to fear.”
@kyawhsanhlaing1
@USIP
Following the loss of major border crossings in North Shan and Kachin, the Myanmar army appears to be on the verge of another defeat in Karen, with significant implications for the global pig-butchering crisis / scam centers on the Moei River
@RobinsonBKK
“Extreme dissatisfaction:” Following the failed talks in Kunming last week, violence surged in Laukkai as the Myanmar army launched airstrikes hitting a hospital & killing Chinese nationals. 12/29: Chinese MFA “lodges serious complaints” with the Myanmar side.
Chinese police issue arrest warrants for key Kokang criminals, including Ming Xuecheng, the owner of the compound where a number of Chinese nationals were killed on October 20 of this year. Ming is a Kokang SAZ official and was a USDP MP in the Shan State Parliament
Myanmar Junta crossing a redline with China? While the Chinese Embassy has not publicly registered concerns around war crimes or rampant human rights violations, it has now indicated displeasure with the junta’s failure to “improve the business environment”
Sanctioned! Shwekokko Crime city boss She Zhijiang, Myanmar army BGF leader Chit Thu and other key perpetrators involved in building scam centers using forced labor / trafficking hubs in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. Coordinated action btw UK, US, Canada:
MNDAA advances on strategic high ground around Laukkaing town; with 3/4 key points taken, begin attack on most important @ Four Buddha Hill, if taken, junta air access will be severely limited. Of symbolic significance as constructed by junta criminal crony co, FullyLight
The End of China’s Friendship with the Myanmar People? A close look at how China’s approach to Myanmar is changing following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
China, Burma & the LMC: China is likely to discover that the junta’s use of violence to advance infrastructure projects will not succeed..While China might be able to absorb the costs of a bad bet on the junta, it will be Myanmar’s people who pay the price
11/1: MNDAA publicly demonstrates its control of Chinshwehaw Gate; send 13 Chinese victims across the border; meanwhile with roads in and out of Kokang blocked off, Kokang scam centers release victims; videos show a convoy of trucks bringing victims out of the “Hiding Tiger” comp
Myanmar army drug production facility uncovered? MNDAA announce discovery of hidden Kokang BGF operated meth lab behind Bai Suocheng’s former headquarters; hand 61 kg of meth over to Chinese police + large supply of precursors / other amphetamines
As the junta FM arrives in Beijing, the MNDAA and allies capture one of the final strategic high points need to move on Laukkai - more on significance of this position here:
MNDAA advances on strategic high ground around Laukkaing town; with 3/4 key points taken, begin attack on most important @ Four Buddha Hill, if taken, junta air access will be severely limited. Of symbolic significance as constructed by junta criminal crony co, FullyLight
The Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) announces that it has cracked down on a scam syndicate in Namhkham; hands 88 Chinese nationals over to Chinese police; arrests 28 Myanmar nationals; captures nearly 300 computers and phone. Signs of spread of criminal activity along border
Myanmar army crime bosses under fire? Following weeks of pressure, 149 Chinese nationals, including many individuals relocated from Kokang to Myawaddy last year are released from scam parks in Karen state into Thai police custody and flown back to China from Maesot
Pipeline under siege? Social media reports indicate that Min Aung Hlaing’s forces have bombed locations around Ann Township in Rakhine state through which China’s most important piece of infrastructure in Myanmar pass, the Myanmar-China pipeline project.
Pretty astonishing claims coming from Phoenix TV commentator Jin Liang: “If Min Aung Hlaing can’t take care of the domestic situation, then the PLA will be fully prepared.”
With Myanmar’s military losing control of borders with China, Thailand, Bangladesh & India, China is pressing the 3 Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) and military for a 5th round of talks in Kunming in late April. Here I look at implications of China’s increasingly aggressive response
With
#China
taking bolder steps to shape the trajectory of the conflict in
#Myanmar
, other countries remain aloof. Our
@Jason_Tower79
has the latest on Myanmar’s collapsing military:
Will Min Aung Hlaing blow up the China border after losing Kokang? MNDAA issues emergency 3-pt statement warning of airstrikes, urging those in Laukkai to evacuate; foreigners to report to the MNDAA to return home through “formal channels” and criminals to turn themselves in.
MNDAA report taking Bangsai border gate, which is connected to China’s Wanding Port. Significant as MNDAA now have a foothold on two key border crossing with two Chinese sub-provincial governments, Lincang and Dehong. Wanding reported 3.7 billion RMB in trade from Jan-June 2022.
Myanmar army’s key crony company in hot water in China? Following days of online rumors that Chinese police have detained the CEO of the Kokang BGF Fullylight Company, its official WeChat account was suspended on 10/4.
MNDAA poised to take Laukkaing, issues 5 point order on measures to reduce civilian causalities: protect foreign nationals and rescue kidnapping victims; turn Chinese criminals over to the Chinese police and take swift enforcement action against those protecting criminals
While China’s influence and involvement in Myanmar is increasing, the Chinese mediated ceasefire is limited to securing Chinese interests, and unlikely to hold without significant enforcement:
“Through Operation 1027 our army…crushed the myth that the Myanmar military is invincible” Peng Deren’s speech marks 35th anniversary of the founding of the MNDAA; emphasizes “post-war reconstruction,” party rule over the military, and strengthening of battlefield capacity.
Photographs reveal MNDAA intention to become a federal level special zone? At the Tomb-sweeping festival on April 5, MNDAA memorials read “Myanmar Federal Special Region No 1” rather than Shan State SR1. Will the MNDAA aim to establish Kokang State as the UWSA push for Wa State?
China-Myanmar trade: Airfreight to replace border trade? With logistics channels between the China border and lower Burma closed, cargo flights between Yangon and Dehong introduced on 4/3: 3.1 tons of good sent to Dehong; 15.3 tons back to Yangon.
Myanmar Regional Crime Webs Enjoy Post-Coup Resurgence: The Kokang Story
How the military junta uses a corrupt militia on China’s border to profit from crime, undermine democracy movements and fight ethnic armed organizations.
MNDAA announces that Myanmar army violates terms of China mediated ceasefire by bombing positions in Northern Shan - within just hours of it taking effect on Jan 12.
Two “key criminals” from the Kokang Hiding Tiger Mountain Villa scam compound are captured in the Wa territory, handed over to Chinese police. They had been at large since the 1020 massacre, and were found hiding in Nandeng, which is where the Wa have been hosting IDPs.
“Extremist monks and pro-military forces protest, demand that the Commander in Chief step down” — not the headline you would expect to see in the Myanmar Chinese language media, Phauk-Phaw; goes on to quote protestors demanding that No 2 take over:
The junta’s BGF and Kokang crime families issue responses to the 10-27 operation: statement indicates that the MNDAA seized over 100 million Chinese yuan, killed scores of pro-junta fighters and SAZ “police”; claims that the MNDAA will soon enter the “dustbin of history”
MDNAA launches news channel, “Special Zone News;” first report on Feb 7 highlights efforts to restore electricity, re-open markets and resume basic commercial activity in Kokang.
Breaking: Thai court rules on crime boss behind notorious criminal hub in Shwekokko, She Zhijiang, and announces the decision to extradite him to China:
“This shift is already happening,” with syndicate heads feeling pressure in Kokang having relocated to southern Shan and Karen states, including into the infamous Shwe Kokko crime hub.
Crime bosses behind Myanmar cyber ‘fraud dens’ handed over to Chinese
Wang Yi on Myanmar at the Tsinghua World Peace Forum 7/3: emphasizes a preference for political dialogue, the 2008 Constitution; preventing unilateral sanctions and “inappropriate involvement;” ASEAN’s role, economic aid, and a soft-landing
This is the highest level China - Myanmar junta engagement to date; while the PRC is pushing to implement the 2020 agreements Xi Jinping signed with the NLD govt, the junta lacks legitimacy, capacity and control. This may undermine the PRC’s other stated objective of stability.
War plans for 2024? MNDAA brigade 311 convenes conference to review operation 1027 and honor the contributions made by its troops; summarizes 2024 objectives: strengthen military capacities, deepen unity, prepare for the next phase of revolution and support the Special Zone Govt.
Challenging the ASEAN Community: Following the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Senior Officials' Meeting last week, the Chinese FM and junta's top diplomat are likely to co-host the LMC Foreign Minister's meeting in Bagan next week. Will 4 ASEAN FMs break with ASEAN and join?
Thanks to
@InsightMyanmar
for producing this emergency episode on scam centers, forced criminality, and human trafficking in Myanmar. Emergency is the right word — this criminal activity poses a serious threat to global security, and continues to receive far too little attention.
Operation 1027: Over the evening, heavy artillery deployed in Laukkaing, targets scam compounds; Kokang BGF founder Bai Suocheng flown back into Kokang to lead defense of junta positions; Kokang BGF issues warning: anyone harboring MNDAA faces “serious consequences”
Dramatic escape from forced labor scam compound operated by Myanmar army border guard and triad group: Malaysia media reports that 11 victims trafficked into Dongmei compound attempted an escape on 2/15; 6 made it to Thailand; 5 were captured + returned, status unknown.
Hell on earth: Chinese court case reveals horrifying details of man who was tricked into forced criminality in Myanmar in 2020, was repeatedly tortured and sold 5Xs to different scam compounds before paying US$64,000 for freedom in 2023, only to receive a 2 year prison sentence
Desperate for legitimacy? Min Aung Hlaing personally receives a donation of a few hundred boxes of instant noodles and crackers, and a several thousand boxes of drinking water from the Chinese Embassy worth around 14,180 USD.
Despite the junta’s defeat in Myawaddy and the escalation in tensions on the Myanmar-Thailand border, one of the region’s most notorious forced labor scamming hubs / crime cities, Shwekokko Yatai City seems unimpacted as plans for a massive water festival party continue
Myanmar army’s BGF threatens action if electricity to its criminal enclaves cut: a clear example of why the military junta will not be able to address the growing global security crisis stemming from transactional crime in Myanmar:
IDPs from Kokang into Wa: an impressive example of coordination across the members of the FPNCC — UWSA receives hundreds of IDPs; raises over 200,000 Chinese yuan in IDP support. Wa Nandeng of symbolic significance here: following 8-8-09, Peng Jiasheng departed Kokang through ND
Rumors already circulating that the MNDAA have liberated at least one compound, freeing hundreds of Chinese nationals held as forced labor in the Kokang BGF scam compounds.
“It is time for the West, led by the United States and ideally joined by at least a few ASEAN members disgusted by the junta’s behavior, to step up its contribution with the express goal of helping the resistance movement prevail.”
Undermining regional security? Where is ASEAN? China holds online Mekong-Lancang Leaders meeting with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing representing Myanmar on 12/25. Unfortunate, but that it is online represents a loss of face for MAH who has been denied an invite to China for 2+yrs.
New arrest warrants issued by police in China’s Jiangxi province for 15 individuals involved in scamming, forced prostitution, human trafficking, drugs and other crimes in Northern Myanmar: .
Chinese government announces 28.3% decline in scams and fraud targeting its nationals since 8/23; this corresponds with crackdown on the Myanmar border and operation 1027. Meanwhile, syndicates become further entrenched on border with Thailand; scams target global population
Flurry of Chinese diplomacy around junta’s historical surrender in Kokang: Chinese Public Security Minister checks in on junta’s lackluster crackdown on crime + likely on Kokang BGF fugitives; PRC Vice FM gives MAH a peculiar gift, preps for talks btw 3BHA and junta in KMG 1/7-9
China’s stated policy that “China-Myanmar friendship is open to all people” fails to recognize that the military is waging war with the people. There is no way for China to maintain friendship with the public while showering the junta with recognition, aid and business.
Beijing is keeping
#Myanmar
's National League for Democracy on a string while closing deals with the country’s new dictatorship, writes
@Jason_Tower79
:
Mining in Myanmar’s Wa region: following the announcement in Aug of 2023 of the suspension of mining operations, which impacted global tin markets, the UWSA announces the limited resumption of mining, with the exception of the large tin mines at Manxiang (Man Maw)
Junta BGF criminals handed over to China: CCTV video features 6 of 10 fugitives now in police custody, including heads of Bai, Liu, and Wei clans, and BGF founder Bai Suocheng:
Myanmar’s Brotherhood Alliance crushing crime and protecting foreign investment? AA/MNDAA/TNLA release statement pledging that they will combat terrorism, violence, attacks on foreign investments, human trafficking and any criminal activity in territories where it is active
While the Myanmar army’s bloody campaigns against the population continue, China signals further support for the junta, as Yunnan pushes to re-open border trade, and LMC cooperation advances with the SAC
MNDAA issues warning to anyone aiding and abetting criminals or laundering / hiding illicit BGF funds in Kokang; perhaps signals plans to scale up war against powerful criminal networks seeking to exploit governance gaps as MNDAA works to consolidate control
Analysts warn that Beijing has gained substantial leverage over Myanmar’s embattled regime...for more than two years, the junta has relied on Chinese and Russian fighter jets and arms to kill, airstrike, and gun down civilians across the country.
@tchau01
Shwekokko update: Myanmar army defies regional attempt to crackdown on transnational crime: Sept - Myanmar army BGF leader Chit Thu personally participates in major events in the crime city, doubling down on BGF support for criminal operations; New Yatai SKK “Chairman” emerges
11/29: MNDAA announces that Pang Hseng town returned to order under its governance, “restores” the People’s government of Pang Hseng under Mongkoe (Menggu County). Party Secretary Li Zhimao presides over the meeting. Signs of consolidation of brotherhood control w/ Wanding border
Three years after Myanmar’s military overthrew the country’s democratically elected government, the ruling generals — having suffered humiliating battlefield defeats — face an existential crisis.
@USIP
How is the international response to the
#Myanmar
coup changing? What is the current popular response to the coup regime? How much ground has the military lost?
On the third anniversary of the February 1, 2021 coup, our experts assess the conflict:
Videos released of Myanmar Army Kokang BGF criminals confessing to their crimes from where they are detained in China; appeal to the compound owners to release victims immediately; note that China will not “call back its forces” until the scam compounds are eradicated.
Chinese Embassy in Myanmar quick to brief Junta FM on the outcomes of the summit, the highlight of which was the announcement of the China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership; clear that China does not share ASEAN’s reservations: