We outlined the Bear Case on $HELE last week in our deep dive Black Book. Subscribe to our research to watch the replay and find out why it's still heading lower.
@HedgeyeRetail
$GME crowd. Let's please keep it friendly, don't attack the other side of the trade. Analyze the thesis, the facts, the rate of change in info. Keep the emotion and hostility out of the debate/trade. You'll make more money that way. And fyi, we might be negative on GME someday.
@CitronResearch
@HedgeyeRetail
In our Dec deck, we said $GME should at least be valued like other content vs distro 'structurally pressured' retailers. On our numbers and those kind of multiples, was worth a range of $25-$35. With new mgmt and Cohen influence, there's real turnaround chance, that's $100+ opp.
$GME with 33% increase in inventory yy. Someone's ready for a BIG holiday.
@HedgeyeRetail
With GME adding TVs, monitors, PC Gaming, etc. when does $BBY worry about ceding share near term?
$GME I guess shouldn't have the current CEO answer strategic questions if there is a decent chance he's not in the seat in 6months. Much of the managment team changing with Cohen influence. RC may want the job.
@HedgeyeRetail
Strong Revs out of $GME, 350bps acceleration. 2yr steady. Margins weak, but looks like investment ramping. We know it is hiring to build crypto gaming offering and other businesses that aren't producing revs yet.
@HedgeyeRetail
$GME Oh boy, here we go again.
@KeithMcCullough
told you on the call this morning that the Risk Range risk/reward was very much in favor of the long side. CFO gone is not bearish. Cohen building his own team.
@HedgeyeRetail
@CitronResearch
@HedgeyeRetail
The probability of the latter has been rising. Our numbers haven't really changed much. Yes Dec weak, but Jan supposedly very strong so far. If the Citron / $GME crowd want double my followers by the weekend, we'll get a rebuttal video recorded for next week.
@HedgeyeRetail
On the $GME subject, reporting that GME store traffic in October was ahead of 2019 levels.
We're still long $GME
@HedgeyeRetail
Pro Subscribers can see our summer Black Book on why:
@CitronResearch
Thanks for the shout one. One clarification for followers, we don't do "price targets". We think of it more as a fair value range given current information. As info, volume, volatility and price change with time, generally so does our view of a fair price range.
@HedgeyeRetail
If you think Playboy / $PLBY is a dying magazine company that's about as correct as calling Marvel a dying comic book company 20 yrs ago. One of the most misunderstood companies in terms of the massive business opportunities ahead of it.
@HedgeyeRetail
$PLBY down ahead of earnigns. If you are selling Friday's prospectus supplement, that's most likely just registration of equity comp shares with no 'sale'. If booking some gains after 50%+ move from the bottom, cool. But P&L is about to accelerate big 4Q & beyond.
@HedgeyeRetail
Jana and Engine Capital should ignore the ridiculous ecom spin play on $M and $KSS and buy $OSTK. That's prob the best value opp in ecommerce i see. $CHWY is best long term growth story. $AMZN best Trend term risk/reward.
@HedgeyeRetail
Market will at some point care that $OSTK has a history being a profitable ecommerce company and $W doesn't. Cant remember if ive seen an ecom company miss revs as much as $OSTK and put up earnings inline. The typical ecom company is chasing growth unprofitabily.
@HedgeyeRetail
What a day, not just $GME... $DBI, $DUFRY, $LB guide up, $RVLV beat, $CTRN having a week. Even the shorts worked today.. $YETI, $W, $BBY
@HedgeyeRetail
Retail Pro:
24 Hours away from our discussion with Marc Cohodes
@AlderLaneEggs
on retail stocks. $OSTK $BYON $HELE $CWH $W. This will be a good one.
@HedgeyeRetail
$PLBY not giving specific names yet on early Centerfold creator partners, hoping to launch with ones that "generate hundreds of millions of GMV in the creator economy."
@HedgeyeRetail
This might be the worst capital allocation i have ever seen... $HELE bought back $100mm around $100/sh. Its at $65 in the premkt and this company has massive debt load with EBITDA crashing.
@HedgeyeRetail
$GME completes its ATM offering. 3.5mm shares. $551mm brought in. Redeeming 2023 notes. If you're Ryan Cohen with ~$700mm in Net Cash, what changes do you make, and/or what do you buy?
@HedgeyeRetail
$AMZN Freezing hiring at corporate level except for AWS. Very bearish read on the global consumer outlook as discussed on The Call with
@KeithMcCullough
. We remain Short Retail.
@HedgeyeRetail
$PTON CFO stepping down. 'member when PTON was supposed to be bought by... $AMZN, Apple, $NKE, anyone at ~$50.
@HedgeyeRetail
We said no deal on that one...
Best Idea Long $GIL reported to be exploring a sale. We flagged a sale as a potential catalyst around the CEO transition. Perhaps robs some of the long term upside, but it's not a bad idea. This would be a good PE/Berkshire asset. We think price has to be close to $50.
One of our recent Best Ideas Long $LB just preannounced a strong 4Q taking up guidance. We still see about +50% to fair value. Bull case is a stock double. Separation catalyst coming.
@HedgeyeRetail
Apparently the take of sell side on student loan payments: "home improvement and renovation projects likely to experience the smallest impact, which supports HD and LOW"...
Hey honey, i know we got all new furniture two years ago, and we have $1000 less a month to spend starting
Companies investing in modern digital/blockchain content and experiences are going to uncover business opportunities and profit streams that few if any would have foreseen. It's ecommerce 25 years ago. $GME $PLBY
@ryancohen
@rwebber
@CaptBaxDawg
@RodAlzmann
@CitronResearch
@HedgeyeRetail
At Hedgeye we don't trade any stocks we are actively covering/writing on. That way we don't front run our clients and our fundamental research remains unbiased, not motivated to move a stock for personal gain.
$AMZN numbers better than feared. 4Q much like we expected. Without the fear/selloff around the $PYPL and $FB prints, this would probably be like down slightly on these numbers. Instead I think people happy to have something to buy in super-cap consumer tech land.
@HedgeyeRetail
$PLBY up 20%. Best Idea Long for
@HedgeyeRetail
Check out our note on the quarter from last night.
If you think you missed this one, it's not done yet, and don't miss the next one. For the research subscribe to Retail Pro
$GME Holiday sales confirm the Dec slowdown. Limited console supply and rising Covid cases creating the sales drag. Interesting that Australasia (where it's summer and Covid cases are low) saw +31% comps. TREND fundamental rate of change setup looks very bullish.
Funny how the prevailing sentiment is that credit rating agencies didn't do their job in 2008, and now when they try to do their job the prevailing sentiment is "shut up, the banking crisis was in March, all good now"
@HedgeyeFIG
@Hedgeye
$GME strategy commentary sounds like we had thought. Customer experience, online capabilities, fulfillment speed, digital asset ecosystem... this part sounds interesting 'evaluating next-generation assets'. I think there is a lot still kept close to the vest.
@HedgeyeRetail
$AMZN Print Weak. I was right on 1Q result, 2Q guide weaker than expected.. steadyish rate of change implied for quarter in total. Growth inflection likely still mid Q, but suggests a weak start to 2Q for April.
@HedgeyeRetail
I don't think the market appreciates how bad apparel margins can get in 2H. Think about the magnitude of the guide downs from TGT and WMT due to elevated inventories, largely impacted by apparel... then imagine if they only sold apparel.
@HedgeyeRetail
A week and a half ago was an epic opportunity to get long one our Best Ideas in $LB. If you subscribed to Retail Pro (link below) it was definitely on your radar. This one's still got room to run with separation within 6 months.
@HedgeyeRetail
Even $BBY talking AI... the only AI that would help BBY is if they can get some T-1000s Terminators to do security in the store to prevent theft.
@HedgeyeRetail
I heard
@HedgeyeFIG
this morning on
#TheCall
talk about $COIN issues with the SEC calling new products securities. In the crypto/NFT future it's looking like an advantage to have SEC approval to trade digital securities... tZERO $OSTK $TZROP
@HedgeyeRetail
$AMZN 3Q revs about as expected, EBIT slightly light. 4Q revenue guide below our below street estimate, EBIT guide exactly what i thought.
@HedgeyeRetail
$GME with a small revenue and EBITDA beat. Almost hard to believe sales are at these levels with such low console supply. What matters though is the new business opportunities, we'll see what new mgmt team says on the call. Will live tweet it.
@HedgeyeRetail
$OSTK winning new customers under Bed Bath banner, but sacrificing margins to do so. Bearish update this morn, bearish for the competitive set as well including $W, $LOVE and $ETSY.
@HedgeyeRetail
Reagan Quote Being Discussed on
#TheCall
: "Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it."
@KeithMcCullough
@HedgeyeDC
@Hedgeye
Former $BBBY CEO suing the company for not paying his severance package. I dont think he deserves it, but when a company can't meet its financial/contractual obligations, like paying employees at any level, it's time for bk filing.
@HedgeyeRetail
Some thoughts for the $GME debate. Console platforms have been about 7-8years before new launches and the games are supported for another 3-5 years after. Since there are disc drives on the new consoles, disc versions of games will be around until at least 2030-2035.
This is not good. August slowdown in discretionary retail sales. Student loans could be a 2-3 point hit to the trend. Expectations are for a 4Q hockey stick in rev growth and margins.
@HedgeyeRetail
So after the massive smear campaign, the
@PGATOUR
just partners with the
@livgolf_league
? I thought they were bad? Makes it clear, it was always just about money and preserving market dominance... don't care about anything else.
$GME starting to grow the stable of talent. New CTO from $AMZN AWS. If $SFIX is any proxy, a big hire from AMZN is good for at least $1.5bn in mkt cap. Other execs hires from $CHWY and $AMZN / $WMT.
@HedgeyeRetail
$WEBR ... levered, trading at 22x next year's street EBITDA, with a variable rate term loan, and EBITDA down ~90% this year... seriously why does anyone own this?
She just ain't pretty. $HELE
CFO Grass was paid big to come stand on the sinking ship as prior CFO and CEO jumped ship.
Best Idea Short elevated a month ago.
@HedgeyeRetail
@RunnymedeCap
Exactly. Crazy how consistent, consensus and wrong that Blockbuster view on $GME was. Heard it all the time talking to investors. We're getting similar initial replies on $PLBY "isn't that just a nudie magazine". Makes it obvious how misunderstood the oppty is.
@HedgeyeRetail
Saw the same, the $HELE CFO insider buy was alongside selling his Puts. So an incoming C-suite employee can monetize the downturn on a recognition of reality? Never seen anything like this. He was HELE CFO 2 yrs ago, not brand new to the company.
@AlderLaneEggs
@HedgeyeRetail
$GME announced its equity deal. 3.5mm shares. Sales accelerated to +18% in March against the easy compare. April should accelerate again.
@HedgeyeRetail
So
@TheRoaringKitty
is back. Not sure we should assume it's for $GME. Lots of Deep F***king Value names out there and right now GME is not one.
@HedgeyeRetail
Replay of our call on $HELE with
@AlderLaneEggs
at the link below.
@HedgeyeRetail
If interested in the referenced Hedgeye Retail HELE Black Book Full Video Replay subscribe to Retail Pro:
$GME Top 3 execs that came on board to lead the transformation (CEO, COO, CFO) are now all gone. I have no idea if it was the right/wrong move, but it's gotta spook some long term institutional investors.
What a move in $OSTK on simply decent numbers. Market starting to believe it's a legit ecommerce business. Still a negative value assigned to its blockchain assets as i see it.
@HedgeyeRetail
Big headline US Retail Sales number. Total Retail & Food Svc accelerated nearly 500bps to +7.4%. Retail ex food, gas, auto up 12.9%... and we havent even hit the easy compares yet. There's a reason we've been net bullish and adding lots of long ideas.
#Quad2
@HedgeyeRetail
Don't know who this guy is (beyond the graphic) and I imagine there is a lot we would disagree on, but I tend to agree with all of the things he just outlined in this clip.
It's only the first week of 2023, and already $BBBY and $PRTY have been reported to file bankruptcy within weeks. As expected the Retail Bankruptcy cycle heating up quickly in 1H23... more to come.
@HedgeyeRetail
Hmm, this seems like a problem... Factset says NTM free cash yield on the S&P is currently 4.5%, and my yielding savings account is paying 4.75%.
@Hedgeye
@HedgeyeRetail
$GME with the shortest ever press release on CEO leading a business transformation being fired...
Ryan Cohen appointed Exec chairman and .. "In conjunction, the Company’s former CEO has been terminated."
We elevated this Best Idea Short idea into the print.
@HedgeyeRetail
So far the apparel retail reads suggest inventory situation got worse in 4Q. Not clean, not even less bad. Worse from prior worst. Mostly brands reporting so far.
@HedgeyeRetail
@HedgeyeDDale
@HedgeyeRetail
If the Macro Quads process and
@KeithMcCullough
's factors weren't saying to be looking at higher beta, small cap, high short interest, consumer discretionary
#Quad2
names, we never would have done the work on $GME.