Gokul Tamilselvam @Gokul46978057 Twitter profile

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

7 months

#ChennaiRains #ChennaiFloods Pallikarani (velachery) Be safe

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

9 days

Some good news on the monsoon front. Large scale monsoonal circulation to strengthen during the last week of June. An active northward propagating BSISO/MISO will keep the monsoon active during the end of June and beginning of July.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

15 days

Monsoon progress to halt over eastern India due to a building ridge in the next 3-4 days. Rainfall expected to decrease in Maharashtra as well. Monsoon engine to slow down ....

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Monsoon2023 Its just amazing to watch the low level clouds invading Kerala and being obstructed by western ghats . We can also see them moving as cloud lines towards coast. Sri Lanka topography also does the same. @Selwyyyyn

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

6 months

Have a look at the hour by hour evolution of rainfall and SLP of #CycloneMichaung between 1st and 5th Dec-2023. One can see the mighty rain bands of the western quadrants that caused havoc over Chennai (500 mm in 36 hrs.) Also notice the minor wobbling offshore Chennai. (1/n)

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

7 months

#CycloneMichaung #AndhraPradesh Cyclone Michaung has spun local tornadoes in coastal AP in districts west and east Godavari on 5-Dec-2023. Caused serious damages locally. These weak and short tornadoes form in the outer rainbands of a cyclone along with land interaction. (1/n)

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Monsoon2k23 Something to cheer from the Monsoon perspective !! Good rains expected to pick up by end of June and beginning of July. The present lull in the Monsoon rains will fade away leading to above normal rainfall along west coast, central and east India (Monsoon core zone)

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#CycloneBiporjoy has moved far north east into mainland India and is still producing widespread rains. This is clearly indicating that this circulation is getting support from the large scale for sure. In a way it is the large monsoon system that is supporting it. (1/n)

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 month

Some early worrying signs about the onset phase of Indian monsoon rainfall during the first week of June. Below normal rainfall is forecasted for east central and along the west coast of India. Very active conditions will be over the China sea ( north west Pacific)

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 month

Inter hemispheric pressure gradient over Indian Ocean to strengthen in the next 2- 3 days with Mascarene High and near equatorial Rossby wave lows strengthening. Monsoon surge to strengthen. The high pressure ridge remains as a block over the Arabian sea and north west India.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

7 months

Evolution of low level winds and relative vorticity of #CycloneMichaung from 1st Dec to near landfall. One can see the aggregation and concentration of cyclonic vorticity within the Cyclone with time. We can also see advection and shifting vortices within the circulation. (1/n)

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

29 days

Monsoon onset over Kerala possible by 31st May 2024. Southern Arabian Sea is largely busy with active large-scale organized convection. Signs of Monsoon strengthening. Cross equatorial circulation intensifying in the backdrop of deepening inter-hemispheric pressure gradient.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

25 days

Large scale monsoonal circulation remains weak to the north of equator with moist cross equatorial flows skipping India. Indian subcontinent will continue to experience below normal rains in the week to come. Currently dry north westerlies prevail over the Indian subcontinent.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

6 months

#TuticorinRains #Tirunelvelifloods Evolution of low-level winds and relative vorticity associated with historic rains over south TN on 17-18 Dec 2023. One can see high +ve vorticity and strong easterlies directed over dists. Tuticorin, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi and Kanyakumari. (1/n)

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Pune #MumbaiRains #Monsoon2023 Monsoon rains have started !! The weather has changed dramatically over the past few hours...Kudos the modern day numerical weather prediction models for having this accuracy

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

6 months

#tuticorinrains #tirunelvelirains #TamilNaduRains During the historic rains of south Tamil Nadu (17-18 Dec'23), there was abundant transport of moisture coming from south Bay through Gulf of Mannar. Integrated moisture transport over Tuticorin dists. was as high as 900 kg/m/s.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

20 days

Monsoon to reach major parts of western Maharashtra including Mumbai and Pune between 10 and 12 th June 2024. Strengthening low level monsoon circulation with northward propagating moist 700 mb monsoon trough expected to evolve in the next 3-4 days and thereby bringing in monsoon

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 month

#CycloneRemal is about to enter into a zone of low vertical wind shear(less than 10 kts) and high SST (32 C). Current satellite image shows explosive deep convection wrapping around the center on the western quadrants. Recent ECMWF is taking the Cyclone slightly west towards WB.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Pune #Mumbai Coastal areas of Maharashtra including Mumbai and Pune expected to see skies turning more cloudy and rains may begin gradually from 25/26 th June 2023. Active rain spell expected from 27th June in the region.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

3 months

Typical pre-monsoon synoptic scale features seen. Continental heating and oceanic anticyclone in the Indian region is causing some moist convergence and cloudiness over central India and neighbouring peninsular India. Western disturbance seen over western Himalayas as well.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 month

Large scale monsoon circulation is strengthening gradually. A Rossby wave pattern is seen over the Bay of Bengal as a response to an off-equatorial monsoonal heat source. South Asian high is strengthening at the upper levels as well. Monsoon is moving north over BoB.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 month

Rains in Kerala right now are not associated with monsoon onset. The low pressure circ. that is hovering around the south west bay is having its influence over southern peninsular India including Kerala and adjoining Arabian sea. Kerala monsoon onset is more than a week away.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

Monsoon onset conditions are clear for Kerala around 4th June(+/- 1 day). Models have started indicating Onset Vortex type of circulation with strengthening cross equatorial westerlies from 1st of June. Andaman rainfall should pick up by 28th May associated with strong moisture.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Monsoon2023 Weather prediction models continue to indicate active large scale monsoon circulation and rainfall anomalies over South Asia including India beginning from 16/17th July lasting till the end of the month . There are indications of synoptic lows/depressions forming.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

Tough time for forecasters 😕 Monsoon onset over Kerala might get delayed further..Models continue not to agree with each other.. ECMWF continues to build up a strong monsoon circulation with active systems embedded along the trough, whereas IMD GFS has no signs of monsoon now.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Monsoon2023 It's a bliss watching this beautiful cyclonic monsoon circulation moving right across the heart of India which is about to give the much needed rains.. #monsoon Life line of 1.4 billion people. Chart from IMD GFS model

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 month

Conditions are favorable for monsoon onset over Kerala around 30th May (+/- 1 day). Moist cross equatorial flow is forecasted to move north over the South Arabian sea in the next 3-4 days which could lead to monsoon features getting established over Kerala adjoining seas.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 month

#monsoon2024 Moist equatorial Rossby wave dynamics to influence monsoon onset over the southern Bay of Bengal and the neighbouring Indo China region. Warmer SST anomalies prevail over the Bay. Uncertainty prevails regarding the future evolution of Bay circulation.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

Monsoon conditions are not expected to revive over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until at least 27th May. From 28th May things look more better with increase in rainfall and associated Monsoon circulation features.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

2 months

A combination of large scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors looks associated with heat wave over Bangal and Odisha. Dry air advection along westerlies over IGP region, column filled with westerlies and associated negative Vorticity all seem to have favoured above normal temps.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Monsoon2023 Latest extended range forecasts from ECMWF indicate Monsoon revival only after 20th June. Until then for the next 7 days large scale dry anomalies prevail across India except over Gujarat and parts of Rajasthan which will receive rain from #CycloneBiparjoy

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

7 months

Deep Depression over South West Bay of Bengal to intensify to a Cyclone within the next 24 hours. Rainfall to increase over North coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh. The landfall of this Cyclone is expected between Machilipatnam and Nellore.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

2 months

Large scale circulation over India and neighbouring areas are dominated by huge anticyclonic circulation and ridge, although normal for this time of the year but it seems anomalously strong. A western disturbance seen over the western Himalayas.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

27 days

Monsoon onset over Kerala in the next 24 hours- IMD

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

Phenomenal day time negative temperature anomalies across the subcontinent during March...

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

11 months

#Monsoon2023 Best cross section to understand active Monsoon features. Southward tilt with ht. of monsoon trough with westerlies in south and easterlies to the north, core of LLJ at 850 mb, Tropical Easterly Jet at upper levels over peninsular India. Tibetan plateau, IGP shown.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

3 months

With gradual heating up of peninsular India and establishing low level anticyclones over Bay of Bengal/Arabian sea, a feeble zone of low level convergence is seen over western Maharashtra and south with scattered deep clouds. Large scale circulation remains unfavourable through.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

10 months

Monsoon will remain active for the next 2 weeks with rainfall expected over most parts of central and north India(East IGP region) along with some parts of the west coast in association with a westward moving active Cyclonic circulation embedded in the large scale Monsoon trough

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Monsoon2023 Latest IMD Extended Range Forecasts are out and it looks quite promising indicating revival of Indian Monsoon after 23rd June in line with recent ECMWF extended range forecasts. End of June into beginning of July hints large scale Monsoon circulation picking good.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Pune #Mumbai #monsoon2023 Monsoon low level clouds are beginning to make its presence over Pune and coastal Maharashtra in general..Signs of Monsoon coming in ...

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

7 months

Western disturbance over North West India and neighbouring Pakistan is associated with Positive Vorticity Advection/ Cyclonic Vorticity Advection (PVA/CVA) at upper levels to the east of the trough axis. A differential PVA in the vertical results in rising motion and clouds.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

3 months

Equatorial Pacific exhibits cooling trend recently. The 7-day change in SST anomalies shows cooling almost along the entire equatorial Pacific. Nino 3.4 index continues to drop and is near +1 as on 7th April 2024. RMM index shows weak MJO near MTC region.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

7 months

#CycloneMichaung is gradually intensifying as it moves towards and S.AP coast. Moisture is being fed into the circulation by moist easterlies from the south China Sea and feeble cross equatorial flows. Active MJO in Indian Ocean and adjoining MTC region.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

8 months

Strong response of atmospheric circulation to positive IOD forcing seen as strong anomalous easterlies over Equatorial Indian Ocean. In fact the total wind field shows easterlies not even weaker westerlies. Positive IOD along with El Nino continues to dominate the global tropics

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

Surface level monsoon flows are just parked outside India mainland and would make an invasion soon in the days to come ! Heralding the start of the 🌧️ rainy season

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

10 months

#Monsoon2023 Cyclonic circulation is spinning over the North bay of Bengal with a strong south westerly monsoon surge south of it. Ridge of high pressure dominates North West India and Arabian Sea. Cloudiness has increased over the Bay of Bengal. Active monsoon conditions nearby.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

2 years

A low pressure area is expected to move closer to the Tamilnadu coast by 10/11 November. Details on rains will be more clear within the next 48 hours.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

11 months

#Monsoon2023 #GujaratRain An active monsoon low pressure system embedded within the large scale monsoon trough is causing widespread rains over the west coast and most heavy ones over Gujarat and other parts of the core monsoon zone. Rain spell will continue for the next 48 hrs.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

9 months

#Punerains Intense Thunderstorm moving in over Pune now ..Rain to continue across several parts of Pune for the next one hour with varying rainfall rate. Video from Pashan Pune

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

7 months

#CycloneMichuang #ChennaiRains2023 #Chennai Cyclone has moved north of Nellore and landfall before noon today near Bapatla. Rain in Chennai has come down. No further big rains are expected from this system in north TN and Chennai. Stay safe 🙏.SAP rains will continue for one day.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

11 months

Next 2-3 weeks looks like large scale low freq. dry and moist convective anomalies over Maritime cont. and Date line areas may act as a source for north westward propagating Dry and moist Rossby wave trains in the Asian region. Break in Indian Monsoon seems associated with this.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

Monsoon northern limit makes an advance further over Arabian Sea , covers parts of Sri Lanka

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Monsoon2023 ECMWF extended range forecasts indicate another active spell of monsoon evolving from mid July. Monsoon Lows/Depressions may form around this period within the active monsoon large scale circulation. Will keep posted on the developments.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

1 year

#Monsoon2023 Active Large scale monsoon circulation expected over the central Indian core monsoon zone as per ECMWF forecasts in the days to come. Good rainfall can be expected

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

4 months

Western disturbance seen west of Pakistan results in widespread rainfall/snowfall over western Himalayas. In the presence of low level moisture associated with western disturbance and anticyclone over deccan plateau regional scale instability is causing rains over Maharashtra

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

8 months

An active western disturbance with a cyclonic circulation at lower levels has brought in cloudy and rainy weather over parts of NW India. Cloudy weather continues over Maharashtra in association with moisture incursion from Bay. Diwali will remain dry across much of India.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

2 months

With MJO associated sub-seasonal signals being weaker in the past few weeks, it seems some low frequency components have been driving circulation anomalies in the tropical Indo Pacific region. Positive OLR, anticyclonic circulation, warmer 850 temp. anomalies have dominated.

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Gokul Tamilselvam

@Gokul46978057

3 months

Intense suppressed phase of MJO over the last week over the eastern Indian Ocean and adjoining the Maritime continent region resulted in associated strong suppressed convective and circulation anomalies and to an extent was seen in the sst anomalies too.

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