#Bitcoin
flushed through 28k. With so little volume, stops triggering can cause an outsized move (flash crash).
Rumors that SpaceX dumped its holdings (unconfirmed) exacerbated the selling and increased the dump with so few buyers available. SpaceX did write down some of theirβ¦
Warning from someone who has seen 25 yrs trading bull/bear markets in
#Stocks
,
#Commodities
#Crypto
. Bear market rallies make you believe a new bull is here.
#FOMO
off 30% $BTC run is insane. Note $TSLA chart, multiple 30-50% bounces. BTC hasnt taken
#FTX
collapse high out...
Did
#Bitcoin
β―β―β― just give up its gains from $25,300 to $23,700 as max fomo hit? Hmmm. So weird that would happen again? Hope you weren't one that FOMOed in above 25k. Same people that bought at 65k got taken again. Big money knows the psychological triggers.
How I know the bear market in
#crypto
isn't over? The toddler bulls are out in full force. They all joined investing in 2018 or after & have never experienced a 'rip your face off bear market rally'. Me? Been through about 100 in stocks, commodities, currencies & crypto.
#Bitcoin
Word hitting that the
#FederalReserve
will do another 75 bps in Nov then pivot. Dollar starts to fall off highs. Fed maybe just got the message of how close the world was to financial collapse.
The great
#merge
was a classic 'sell the news' event. Watching the key $19,500 level again on $BTC. Has never confirmed below. Once it does, small support at $17,500, if that breaks.... $12,000-$13,000.
#Ethere
#JeromePowell
dovish tone today. Smart money has to start wondering what he sees on the horizon (in terms of a recession) as to why he wants to pivot so quick. Always think 2 steps ahead. Something is up and he is looking at the real data behind the scenes.
#FederalReserve
#StockMarket
warning: $SPX & $NASDAQ sharply higher but $VIX (volatility) is not dropping. This tells the trading community smart money is buying protection & to be careful. This isn't to say we cant go up for a few days, but is a bigger signal of trouble looming.
Top 5 Things Every Trader Should Be Watching This Week...
1.
#NVIDIA
$NVDA Earnings Wed (After Market Close)
This stock has become the golden child of the stock market and the risk on environment. Valuation is insane but justified by bulls based on the incredible growth
#AI
isβ¦
Ton of bearish sentiment out there on Twitter in regards to
#Crypto
. Not surprised to see it catch a small bid. Will be releasing a video later giving the date/price per my calculations of a bottom, just like I did with the top. $BTC $ETH $XRP $SOL $AVAX $BNB
#Bitcoin
#Ethereum
With my high end target being achieved, I now am comfortable enough to begin a tiny HODL position (1/6% of what I intend to accumulate) here at 19k, fully understanding that
#Bitcoin
will likely go to my second target of $12,000 & perhaps below. I will slowly add every 3k down.
5.9% core
#CPI
. Market expected north of 6%. Stripping out food/energy is key. I doubt this rally lasts long though, be wary. Economy is slowing, inflation is still high, recession is still likely. A lot of headwinds.
Extreme hawkish Fed statement. Just like past printing and tightening phases, the Fed will go way too far, way too fast and will crush the economy. Makes you question their ability to understand how rate hikes take time to cycle through the economy vs them reacting emotionally.
#GDP
comes out -0.9%. Markets initially sell, then rally as investors love the falling
#Dollar
and likelihood that the
#FederalReserve
can no longer raise rates aggressively. So risk on for now UNTIL the market realizes the Fed can't print us out of a bad recession.
#Bitcoin
Nearing my KEY level on
#Bitcoin
where I have said the bull market narrative will be tested. If bulls can hold it, still a shot at a bull market breakout above 32k in the near-term. If they can't, 25k, then 20k and potentially 15.7k. $BTC
#Crypto
#Crypto
& the
#StockMarket
are hanging on by a thread. Tomorrow's
#CPI
data is 10x more important after $FTT collapse as investors are panicking. Hotter than expected CPI number could cause a deleveraging chain reaction in crypto causing more bk's & a stock market mini collapse.
Remember in October 2021 when I said
#Bitcoin
would head to 20k and the cause would be a deleveraging event. Welcome to the deleveraging event (and it is not over yet). Also, that 90%+ of
#crypto
needs to be wiped out in a
#Darwinian
event? It has started
#Luna
@davidlin_TV
Japanese intervention in their currency markets is another domino to fall. They are trying to prop up their currency by dumping US bonds. The negative for the US is that causes interest rates to jump even more. The great pyramid is beginning to tumble.
#Yen
#Dollar
#Rates
$BTC pump into the daily close = the power of the charts as price gets back above the 2017. A mega player didn't want a close below. Amazing to watch. Learn the levels and watch magic happen around the levels.
#Bitcoin
#Crytpo
#Ethereum
#Solana
#Avalanche
#Charts
Starting to see the insanity return, money stepping over money to get in. That tells me the markets have not reached their ultimate lows. Near-term tech should be near topping out with two factors of resistance being kissed on the $QQQ. Looking for a near-term pullback here.
Some perspective on what people are getting excited about in the chart below....
Reminds me of kids that have not had candy in years and get 1 M&M and are extremely excited. Not even a pack but hey, throw them a bone.
#Crypto
#Bitcoin
$BTC
#Ethereum
#Binance
#Polygon
#Solana
To pre- answer questions, yes, I still think BTC gets to $25,500 maybe $28,000. And no, the bottom is not in, after this trade-able bounce, I still think Bitcoin heads to 12,000 or below. Hopefully this saves some questions lol
Putin is smart, he is using his 1 weapon against the west. All this war chatter is causing thngs like
#oil
#naturalgas
& wheat to surge in price, pushing up inflation. Ultimately, this forces the
#FederalReserve
tighten monetary policy faster, likely forcing the US into recession
Today was the most bullish price action I have seen in a while on
#Bitcoin
. To hold up so well when the
#StockMarket
took a hammering, definitely unusual and shows relative strength.
The more the market sells into next week's
#FederalReserve
meeting +
#CPI
, the more I favor an end of year rally. 2023 will be a very ugly year though.
The bulls in the
#StockMarket
and
#Crypto
have sure gone quiet after hammering me for being bearish on
#Bitcoin
at the 31k level, saying it would test 28k and
#Stocks
would be at new all-time highs.
I am neither a bull nor a bear, I am a trader. Short resistance, buyβ¦
The irony of it all, weak inflation data pushes the markets sharply higher which then makes inflation go up and forces the
#FederalReserve
to raise interest rates higher. The Fed wants the markets lower, be careful of bear market rallies.
#StockMarket
#Investing
#Trading
I can't help but nibble on some more
#crypto
here for a swing trade. $MATIC $LINK $ADA $BTC $SOL $AVAX. May regret it, but I have trained my brain to buy technical support and buy panic. Both showing themselves. Time will tell....
#Ethereum
trying to close above its range today (looks likely). I will be watching for
#Confirmation
to signal the move to $1700ish.
#Bitcoin
still has not broken above $21,800, the key level there. $BTC $ETH $ADA $BNB $MATIC $XRP
#Crypto
.
Excited to launch the
#NoShillZone
with
@intocryptoverse
. We are both technical, data driven traders/investors who will collaborate to share knowledge, insight & analysis on the
#Crypto
,
#Stock
&
#Commodity
markets. No Hype, No Emotion, No BS!
Every MONDAY at 11am ET. Linkβ¦
Yikes on inflation
#CPI
. Locks in a 75 bps hike for September. Increases the likelihood the
#FederalReserve
will have to overtighten, thus pushing the economy info a recession at which point, they won't be able to get the economy out of recession as inflation remains elevated.
Conspiracy theories on social media are 99.999% nonsense. They simply give the uneducated & those struggling a place to put blame besides themselves. If I believed half this stuff, I would have given up learning how to trade 20 yrs ago thinking the system was rigged against me.
#ElonMusk
loves playing games. I have said it before, I will say it again, he is sitting in his tower giggling at the chaos he can create. He says he has a "super bad feeling" about the economy on June 3rd, the exact birthday of the character
#McLovin
in the movie
#SuperBad
. Hmmm
It was almost as if the
#FederalReserve
saw the market rallying on the initial statement (change in language) and then had
#JeromePowell
come out and push the markets lower. Fed wants asset prices to stay down. If markets rally, inflation will be harder to get under control.
Example of brainwashed fandom: Elon Musk selling billions in $TSLA stock but tweets about 3M cars made (tiny compared to other major car makers). Investors rush to buy stock. He's either selling b/c he thinks it's going down or because he is buying $TWTR. Neither good for Tesla.
I've always compared the .com bubble to the
#crypto
bubble and thus the collapse should be the same. The junk needs to be cleansed from the system to allow the best to flourish. 95% of the
#Coins
should go to 0. This looks to be happening now.
#Bitcoin
#Ethereum
#Cardano
#Solana
The irony of
#oil
going higher. The higher it goes, the weaker it will make the economy killing demand, thus the lower it will go. Add more rate hikes by the
#FederalReserve
and once this oil bounce is over, next stop is sub $50.
Amazing to watch as
#Bitcoin
never confirmed below the 2017 highs. Amazing to watch as it danced at that level, the bearish sentiment getting stronger & stronger. A pinch of technicals, a dash of psychology and the probabilities of a near-term bounce formulate.
#Ethereum
#Crypto
History Lesson: In Super Bowl XXXIV (played in 2000), there were so many
#DotCom
ads played (total of 14 different ones) that it was dubbed the "Dot-Com Super Bowl" & marked the top before many went bankrupt. This Sunday, the Super Bowl has many crypto commercials...
#Food4Thought
#FederalReserveChair
#JeromePowell
says the fight to tame inflation is 'unconditional'. We will see their resolve when unemployment goes from 3%+ to 10%+. Will their resolve be as 'unconditional' then? I doubt it. My guess is 3-4% inflation will be A-OK to start printing again.
Emotional radar is flashing as I see so many comments saying that the
#FederalReserve
will hike 75-100bps. Love it. Twitter becoming one of the most useful indicators I have.
Interesting Fact: The highest daily close on $BTC was Nov 8th, 2021. Here we are 1 year later to the day, with a blood moon lunar eclipse. Yeah, some crazy $hit was going to go down. Love cycles! $ETH $SOL $FTT $XRP $AVAX $BNB
#Bitcoin
#Ethereum
#Crypto
#Cycles
#Gold
stages that lead to $3,000+/ounce
1. Good News Is Bad News
This is the current state of the markets. Good news causes a Dollar and yield pop. Markets tend to sell slightly but a rising Dollar makes it hard for Gold to rally. Gold will chop sideways.
2. Bad News Is Goodβ¦
The Dollar/Yen continues to explode upwards. Something will break, much like what happened in the UK. The world is near financial collapse because the
#FederalReserve
is overcompensating for being wrong on 'transitory'. So much for the 'measured approach', they always strive for.
$DXY reversing pop. Things top out when something very bullish initially causes a pop, then reverses & goes negative. I do have the the
#Dollar
into huge resistance + this should be peak $CPI print with oil, copper, nickel, lumber collapsing in last few weeks.
#PeakInflation
The late day tank on the stock market yesterday does beg the question...who got the
#CPI
data before the public. That much volume & selling pressure was not just 'profit taking to be safe' before the data today that crushed markets..
#Food4Thought
#Hmmm
#InsiderInfo
@TheDomino
Earnings releases from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $TXN + housing data today it is clear the economy is collapsing toward recession. Keep in mind, the last two 0.75 rate hikes have not filtered in, let alone the next one coming next week. Like 'transitory' the Fed will be way off again.
I sit behind a computer with screens surrounding me almost every day. Not good...
Having a veggie garden and fruit trees is therapeutic as is getting some natural sun. Loving my cauliflower, tomatoes, beans, peas, peppers and papaya today.
Hope everyone is having a wonderfulβ¦
$META at $106 here reminds me of $NFLX when it was thrown out the window early in 2022 and traded down to $165 (now back to $300). I am a buyer down here, may take 6-12 months, but chart matches the fundamentals.
#Stock
#Trading
#Investing
Bank of Japan intervenes to try and prop up the
#Yen
. Notice how the
#WallStreetJournal
comments about the Fed pivot coincide with the
#BOJ
intervention. It means they are working together to avoid total collapse. Doubt they avoid it longer term, but near-term...nice.
That pop was illiquidity meeting a break of the $32k level which triggered short covering. Classic.
Now the real test if it can hold above 32k...or will it fail
Trader Market Update: Inside The Market Reversal
First thing to understand is that $NVDA had no chance. The stock had gained 25% in a week on a $1 trillion market cap. The stock had gained 500% in 10 months. Earnings were amazing, but smart money realizes this is as good as itβ¦
$TSLA one of the biggest falls from grace in terms of stock price. From nearly $1.5T to $350B. Some is tax loss selling, some is economic, but a majority is
@ElonMusk
not making it clear to investors that he is 100% at the helm of
#Tesla
& moving away from
#Twitter
.
#JeromePowell
said "banks are fine" in his press conference. Que the egg on face as this evening, regional banks collapsing. PACW -57%, many others down 10-30%. The guy legit gets everything wrong. Just assume the opposite of what he says.
#FederalReserve
#Banks
To the day, 1 month ago (July 14th) $NVDA topped out at $480.88. Today (August 14th) it hit a low of $403.11 before an epic rally. After hours today it is at $442. That is an epic 50% retrace of a drop that took 1 month in a $1 TRILLION company in 1 single day on no news, justβ¦
#Dollar
fall tells us the markets believe the
#FederalReserve
is almost done raising rates after today's 75bp hike. My guess is Sept maybeeeee 25bps and its done. Hello nasty recession in 2023. But felt will be handcuffed to lower rates due to stubbornly high inflation (4%).
Did $BTC collapse from the $30,500 level? Oh weird, almost like there was major resistance. Hmmm. Wish someone had warned us all about that exact level........
#Crypto
Riding some shorts & scoping out long levels.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $MATIC $AVAX $DOT
#StockMarket
warning: $SPX & $NASDAQ sharply higher but $VIX (volatility) is not dropping. This tells the trading community smart money is buying protection & to be careful. This isn't to say we cant go up for a few days, but is a bigger signal of trouble looming.
Just pointing out that no one should be surprised by the war on
#Crypto
by the
#SEC
. Did anyone expect the US gov't to sit idly by and be ok with monetary competition that would take control from them? Deep down they know they cannot get rid of it, but are pulling the
#China
cardβ¦
Why is a debt downgrade from AAA to AA+ a big deal?
Like lowering of a credit score, it means there is more risk giving a loan thus lenders (to the US) will charge a higher interest rate. When the US has $32+ trillion in debt, $1 trillion in interest payments per yr already +β¦
When $BBBY pops 70%, $AMC jumps 22% and
#crypto
is in rally mode, you know investors are expecting a REALLY GOOD
#CPI
number tomorrow. Risk on baby! Bring back 2021. Makes me a little nervous frankly lol. 8:30am ET it hits.
Trader Point of View on
#ElonMusk
buying $TWTR. The only reason
#Twitter
accepted the offer 2 days before earnings is because earnings are likely bad. If they rejected the offer and the stock tanked on earnings, they would be in big trouble.
#FiduciaryResponsibility
Folks. Stop paying attention to the headline
#CPI
number that retail watches and start paying attention to the core CPI number that big money watches. That is the key. lol
Still VERY possible to see the pre-Covid $SPX highs at 3,390 before year end. If not, high probability in first quarter 2023. Fed pushing economy towards a recession it won't be able to get us out of, as inflation will remain sticky at 4-5% longer-term.
#StockMarket
#Recession
I believe in
#Zuckerberg
and his long term vision. It will likely make
@Meta
the most valuable company on the planet. But he also has to realize that investors dont care about 10 years from now, they care about 6-12 months from now. Long-term vision collides with near-term greed.
After $BTC failed here, I expect a pull back to $41,000. If history repeats, a move to $50k, maybe $52,500...then a fall to $24,000, then $18-$20K. Should be fun to trade and watch.
#Bitcoin
playing out as the technical chart alerted us. Banked 25% on
#Avalanche
short, nicely in the money on
#Ethereum
and
#Solana
short.
When $BTC was at 25k, FOMO was strong but charts told the truth.
Here is the chart of key levels....
#Crypto
Things to look for in tomorrow's
#FederalReserve
statement. 1. interest rate hike (75bps expected). 2. Commentary about pivoting (future hike guidance). 3. Press conference questions on what the Fed does if economy spirals into deep recession. 4. How many dissent within Fed.
Likely 3 month probability forecast on
#Bitcoin
price action based on bearish megaphone pattern, still holding valid head/shoulder breakdown. It is negated if price confirms above $50k, til then, this is the likely outcome.
#Ethereum
#NFT
#Crypto
#TechnicalAnalysis
$BTC $DOT $BNB
If you are a
#StockMarket
bull, this is the last thing you wanted to see. A nasty reversal of the
#FederalReserve
induced rally. Fed can only prop the market up for so long with comments when they keep pulling out liquidity, hand over fist. Not good for
#Crypto
either.
@GarethSoloway
topping tail on the daily for BTC? Iβve learned a lot from you and being able to recognize things like this in the charts is a game changer!
Same type people who were calling for
#Bitcoin
to hit 100k by the end of Nov 2021 (when it was above $68k in early Nov 2021) are the same ones calling for $200
#CrudeOil
. By type people I mean EMOTIONAL type people. Instead, look at the charts and base decisions off probabilities
Cover Alert in
#Bitcoin
&
#Ethereum
. Banked $BTC +13.59% and $ETH +9.78%. Just stacking w/ members as we shorted when everyone was screaming breakout. Of course the chart was RIGHT into resistance. 37 trade alerts since Nov 8th (service launch), 36 wins, 1 loser. Congrats members
2nd largest economy
#China
is in deep trouble...
---Retail Sales missed: Rising 2.5% vs expected 4.5%
---Industrial Production missed: Rising 3.7% vs expected 4.4%.
---Fixed Asset Investing missed: Rising 3.4% vs expected 3.8%
Remember, when China reports numbers, economistsβ¦
Where are those people who swore to me the stock market would hit new all-time highs in 2023?
I showed the pattern in the
#NASDAQ
and its identical twin from the dot-com era, I discussed higher-for-longer and that inflation would remain elevated at or above 3%. I showed theβ¦
Talk of
#Russia
#Ukraine
war comes out on a Friday afternoon to scare investors into selling into the weekend. Of course it could happen, but I have also seen stuff like this as a scare tactic to allow institutions to load the boat for Monday snap back. Not buying but not selling
If
#NaturalGas
can fall 17% in a day,
#oil
can do the same. So much hot air and bullishness is never good. Marks a top almost every time. Talking heads preaching the safety of energy is another signal of a top.
#Bitcoin
note: When $BTC was at 65k-68k & hype was insane among investors triggering a mad rush to buy the 'breakout'...why didn't bitcoin surge? Think about it folks, someone was unloading into the hysteria. Bitcoin will breakout, just not when all little investors expect it.
This is a
#blitzkrieg
of
#crypto
, the timing done to coincide with the launch of
#FedNow
, a backdoor to a
#CBDC
. I told you all at $30,500 the charts were signaling another drop. Hopium led you astray. Nothing chart wise tells me the bottom is in yet...
#Coinbase
#SEC
#Bitcoin
Volume does not get much lighter than this...all eyes on the
#CPI
data tomorrow at 8:30am ET. Watch the last 15 mins of the day as last month the news leaked and markets sold into the close before the hot number.
#StockMarket
#Crypto
#Dollar
#Bitcoin
#Oil
#Charts
How pivotal is today's
#FederalReserve
decision? If the statement causes a break of the neck-line of the head and shoulder pattern, it may signal the 10 year yield going back to 2.05%. That has epic implications for what the economy will be going through...
#TechnicalAnalysis
The markets got saved. $CPI reading coming in lower than expected gives the Fed room to only do 25bps in Dec and potentially pause after that.
#SavedByTheCPI
#StockMarket
#Crypto
#Crypto
& the
#StockMarket
are hanging on by a thread. Tomorrow's
#CPI
data is 10x more important after $FTT collapse as investors are panicking. Hotter than expected CPI number could cause a deleveraging chain reaction in crypto causing more bk's & a stock market mini collapse.
Epic day for
#Bitcoin
,
#StockMarket
& the whole economy. 2pm ET
#FederalReserve
announcement. Markets priced in 75bps, important point is the commentary. Is Fed flexible to slow hiking if economy collapses or are the determined to force inflation to 2% regardless of the damage...