Ed Bradford @Fullcarry Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 month

Updated H.4.1 Chart

2

5

44

Last Seen Profiles

@umaaji_lady_mk2

@031002_sh

@spinner_fan

@pomekawachan

@AvirosaR18

@FixerForYou

@sigeosato

@Giulicat1512

@suuuzumii

@roowesza

@nenepipp

@7AntonioBello

@rachstew13

@CCupo

@didbrock

@samdascam

@mybabatweets

@liisha_ks

@jaya_pancasila

@DevOliRBX

@samrahatika

@animetv_fr

@MemeKongToken

@nan2000web

@pengen_stw

@govochto

@TSwanyIRL

@PutriHus

@ziguinhodesign

@WA_ESGR

@nugs777

@joozu

@MEROVENGENCE

@ke1_ry

@Tranz_duck

@FairBerc20

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 month

@BNONews It would be funnier if it were Columbia

12

32

4K

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

Coincidence? I Don't think so.....

23

163

974

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

Funniest thing is the Fed is still doing QE and increasing their balance sheet.

46

78

863

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

25 days

@JoeBiden I like trash talking Brandon

39

6

785

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

I got the Mom call about interest rates. We are close to a bottom

22

49

691

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

For you younger 'uns. Gold and Silver are simply nature's cryptos

21

66

621

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

@AdImpact_Pol They probably regret choosing that name

13

6

575

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

5 years

Personal Note: going out on my own after 24 years with the same small firm in NYC. I definitely won't miss the commute. And from now on my only boss will be the margin clerk at the CME.

74

4

557

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

If Biden were in a coma I would vote for him. It's not about Joe. It's about getting rid of the worst blot in the history of our great country

60

43

459

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

5 months

I have been trading with leverage since 1994. 2023 was my second-best year ever despite my getting every major call WRONG. I share this not to show off but to make the important point that IT ISN'T ABOUT MAKING CALLS. Traders should trade

29

28

433

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 year

Little bank run unwind 50% of QT in a few days

21

88

408

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

Worst bond action since Roger Moore

24

22

349

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

There is this Twitter narrative that the recent price action in USTs is a sign of impending doom. Believe it or not, this is how bonds traded before 2008. What was unusual was the steady bid after the financial crisis

26

30

349

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

10 days

Chicago PMI recession levels

10

81

338

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

Forget 25 vs 50. Fed may have to pass on hiking in March

32

19

323

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

Your bids mean nothing to us Mr. Bond

17

38

328

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 months

The central theme of the paper Waller references in his speech is that the effects of QT have been much milder than QE. I think I have come up with why :)

26

57

309

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

@NolanDMcCaskill Oscar-worthy performance. His 5th should he win

6

3

278

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

One of the greatest innovations in technical analysis is the arrow. When a chart pattern doesn't readily suggest a direction, use an arrow to drive home the point

12

27

285

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 year

Permbears: Hard landing Fed: Soft landing Fintwit: No landing 0DTE Guys: Moon landing

18

31

279

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

In my next life, I would like to return as NDX. I would defy gravity, make passive people crazy rich and the world would refer to my seven best parts as magnificent

15

31

285

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

I am calling it. This is the greatest bear steepener EVER

17

25

273

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

9 months

2s30s now 16 bps steeper on the day. Just wow.

16

49

261

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

If you are math challenged this is the time to visit London

9

8

253

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

Not a good day for the "US is already in a recession" crowd

18

47

252

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

7 months

So much crazy commentary that the US Treasury should have issued more long-term debt when rates were low. I guess most forget it was government POLICY (Fed QE) to reduce duration in the hands of the private sector. This whole discussion is moronic

30

28

256

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

Folks. I am a leveraged trader. I trade the UST curve. The target of my tweets are others who trade bonds actively as well. If you invest in bonds and make one trade every few years, I doubt you will find my comments useful.

31

5

248

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

Relationships are fragile. They need daily affirmation. Please don't take your loved one for granted

10

23

238

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

9 months

As a curve trader (mostly), I tend to view UST price action through that prism, but this isn't about leveraged curve guys. This is real money dumping duration. Duration risk is BACK

0

26

225

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

Funny how Fed talks of reducing balance sheet as they continue to increase it. Why not just end QE at the next FOMC meeting

33

17

220

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

Milestone of sorts today as the Fed's epic pandemic related QE program comes to an end with a final $4B purchase of the 3y sector

6

48

209

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

I am revising my Fed call to 20 hikes this year, interspersed randomly between meetings for extra effect.

18

15

210

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

New Dream Team

13

27

199

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

7 months

In a bit of a surprise, the US Treasury cutting quarterly borrowing estimates from $852B to $776B

17

39

206

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

Powell earlier today after reading Yellen's comment

2

25

202

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

BTW if you are interested in buying tbills or USTs generally, there is nothing easier than opening a Treasury Direct account and buying directly. Cut out the middleman

13

12

201

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

7 months

@nicholaswu12 @BenjySarlin Brutal

5

203

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

2s, 3s, 5s and 10s all at 2.78

14

23

198

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

DONE. QE is officially over

13

31

193

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

This Halloween I am going as a POSITIVE Term Premium. Bond bulls be freaking out

17

22

194

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

5y breakeven inflation collapsing, down to 3.06. April CPI prints Wed morning

6

33

194

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

7 months

Not much data next week so we can concentrate on the deluge of supply. Big boy auctions in 10s ($40B) and 30s ($24B) will test the resilience of the current rally

14

30

186

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

I know it is bad optics but the Fed should do a sudden stop and end QE. I am not sure there is any benefit to slowly tapering. They started it suddenly, they can stop it on a dime.

33

22

183

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

11 months

I am probably the only person that still cares about this but RRP usage is now down to $1.74T

25

18

188

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

Some good news: CUOMO: INFECTION RATE IN WESTCHESTER, AN EARLY LOCUS, IS SLOWING

5

62

177

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 year

Bonds need stocks to crash and stocks need bonds to not crash

10

20

179

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

This

10

18

177

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

US Treasury to issue $438B USTs (bills and coupons) next week between Xmas and NYE. Peak fun

11

34

177

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

Bloomberg Economics is expecting a 0.1 core CPI print tomorrow

21

13

170

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 year

I don't know anything first hand but there will be casualties in the bond market. These moves are just beyond normal risk controls

17

12

172

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

@ChadPergram How about Jeffries with 212 votes?

3

171

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

There are three major inflation events tomorrow. CPI, 30y auction and Sept Fed minutes. They are all market movers so it will be a challenging day trading the curve.

10

36

166

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

Order is in

10

16

168

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

30-year breakeven inflation is now trading 2.17%. My only 2024 prediction: this will trade north of 2.30% at some point next year or I will binge-watch every episode of "Emily in Paris"

12

14

171

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

Many are still treating this surge in long-end yields as some kind of aberration. In my view, we are slowly returning to the pre-QE world. 30y breakevens close to 3% will be my signal that we are where we need to be.

11

17

168

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 months

Contrary to the recent chatter, higher interest rates on cash don't net stimulate the economy or accelerate inflation. Here is a real rate chart back to 1981. High real rates preceded every US recession

24

30

170

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

This is the best Fintwit ever

8

7

163

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 year

Even including the crazy early '80s Volcker money supply targeting regime, this is next level. Fed is crazy jacking up interest rates with a huge balance sheet. Curve has no choice but invert and flatten. The reversal when it happens will be sudden and non-stop

12

21

161

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

Trump weighs $1 Trillion for infrastructure to spur economy

74

26

147

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

5 years

How many times are we going to celebrate a China trade deal?

30

27

152

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

25 days

I doubt anyone who experienced the late 90s considers this price action in equities in any way weird or extreme. Financial assets love disinflation and equities are reflecting this

22

11

160

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 months

@patriottakes May I also remind everyone that certain members of Congress are batshit crazy

5

8

159

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

It may seem like a sexy profession, but trading is all about managing mistakes. The good times are sparse and most of the time you are just biting your nail.

14

19

156

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 year

If USTs curve keep this up, regional banks should be in the money with their HTM crap by month-end

9

10

158

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 months

Happy longest curve inversion ever to all who celebrate

CME Group Interest Rates

@Interest_Rates

3 months

U.S. 2Y/10Y inversion now longest in history. The 2s10s spread (FRED T10Y2Y) has now been inverted for 424 days, surpassing the 1978-1980 inversion of 423 days for longest ever.

14

96

207

8

20

159

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

I have a joke unrelated to bonds. It yields no laughter and lacks maturity

13

153

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

New Home sales above 1 million

8

50

147

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

Stocks have that "gradually, then suddenly" look to them.

14

5

156

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

The Fed has become so enamored of forward guidance that their projections are no longer what they think but what they they think they need to signal

14

16

153

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

Rare for 5s30s and 2s5s to converge this much

10

14

151

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

There are worse trades than buying 20s with a 5.25 yield

16

8

154

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

9 months

The Treasury market is starting to price a return to "old normal" interest rates. That's a world where bonds need to offer yields beyond what the path of short-term interest rates implies. The transition will be bumpy and feel unusual at times, especially since it's a market

20

16

153

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

Forget jobs week, the real action is next week with double coupon auctions on Mon and CPI and bigly 30y auction on Tues. And to top it all off, we will have a SEP FOMC meeting on Wed.

8

30

150

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

I have no idea what happened today. Stocks/bonds/USD

26

4

146

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

5 months

CPI jitters are real. Not only can you lose money tomorrow but your whole narrative can come crashing down with a slight 0.1 miss

23

1

148

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

Perfect day to show that it is real rates and not inflation expectations that drive Gold

7

27

148

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 year

I like this chart from BlackRock highlighting the four years both stocks and bonds were down. Not only is this a rare phenomenon but it doesn't last long. We have never had two years in a row

15

28

144

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

@Lavorgnanomics The bond market's been telling us something for 40 years

4

3

137

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

1 year

The curve is steepening furiously after a deep inversion. I am not sure why people think this is a good time to allocate more to risky assets. It can work but the odds are against you

15

11

146

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

9 months

The price of May 2050 UST bond is now below 50. Yes you can lose money with Ts

25

22

145

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

The narrative was the Fed couldn't end QE suddenly because it would spook the market but now everyone is buying into the possibility of a 50bp initial hike in March.

18

7

141

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 months

My 3 cents, Gold has become a more forward looking asset. It pretty much flatlined when inflation soared and rates went higher and is now soaring as inflation retreats. Gold is pricing a CUT cycle.

23

15

147

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

2

10

143

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

FOMC will be issuing a new DOT plot on Wed. Here are my Sept guesses vs last June's actual DOTs. Also showing SOFR curve after the June meeting in green and SOFR curve this Friday in orange

16

22

141

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

I say this knowing and living many of the false starts, but the long, LONG secular bull market in bonds may actually and FINALLY be over. Don't @ me

25

7

138

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

Okay, maybe we shouldn't read too much into breakevens going forward. This happened today once an official at the NY Fed announced they could be buying fewer TIPs

7

26

140

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

My current favorite CRAZY bond market chart. 30-Year yield vs core CPI. Very... very... long term

10

24

136

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

7 months

RRP usage should fall below $1T soon.

15

23

140

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 months

Since the Volcker years, it has been unusual for the curve to remain inverted for so long. Guessing something will have to give soon. Either the long end will sell off or the Fed will cut.

19

24

138

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

2 years

Hike cycle terminal rate now 3.75 vs 3.26 last week

8

24

141

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

Me today

4

7

136

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

Not much post-morteming about it but the Evergrande "Lehman moment" didn't age well.

19

7

136

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

One of my best trades recently has been not shorting SPooz

5

8

132

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

Next week will be BIG for the bond market with the US Treasury widely expected to increase coupon auction sizes across the curve at the refunding announcement. Add an FOMC meeting and a payroll number, and we will be rock and rolling to exhaustion. Get some sleep this weekend

11

26

139

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

This is the CPI price index since the 1950s. It's absurd how much time we waste discussing "deflation risk" cc @stevehouf

17

15

140

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

Real rates were north of 4% in the late 90s. Just let that sink in....

13

21

134

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

3 years

Service sector hot Manufacturing hot Wages hot Employment recovering Housing on fire Vaccinations picking up This thing is on fire

12

18

134

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

Here is a good chart showing how these factors add up and match the Fed's balance sheet

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

6 months

@dharmatrade It's all about the Fed's balance sheet shrinking now that TGA has stabilized. Fed's balance sheet shrinks as SOMA securities mature and aren't replaced. Don't forget the other side of the Fed's balance sheet is mostly bank reserves plus RRP balances plus Currency plus some

2

5

34

7

14

131

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

8 months

What is the incentive for publically announcing your trades?

87

2

134

Ed Bradford

@Fullcarry

4 years

Recession isn't the right way to think about this

9

31

131