At latest count, ownership percentages for these premium keepers are: Mendy 26.3% Alisson 18.8% Ederson 14.0% I've never really tracked ownership percentages for keepers but 59% of all FPL owners have opted for a 5.0 M + keeper. This seems quite high.

First things first, let's discuss Alisson. While I rate him as the clear #1 keeper in the game for the 22/23 season, I don't think it's the optimal way to use one of your 3 LIV spots. Let's assume you've got Salah and Trent - isn't that 3rd spot better saved for Díaz or Robbo?

Moving on to Ederson... while I can accept that paying 5.5 M for a nailed MCI player (with great fixtures!) makes sense, isn't it better to keep that 3rd MCI spot open *just in case*? I assume most of us will have Haaland and a DEF...

... personally speaking, I think that 3rd MCI spot should be left open for one of the mids (Foden, Mahrez, Grealish) - if they go off, you won't need major surgery to get to them assuming you have some flexibility in your squad/formation.

In addition, as we know, Ederson simply doesn't rack up enough saves and/or BPS on a regular basis to warrant selection for the games where MCI may concede. #s from last yr: 🟦 8th in BPS per 90 🟦 1.62 saves per 90 good for ~ mid-20s among keepers who played 1000 mins +

Before moving on to discuss other keepers, it's time for a little research project. I pulled pts per 90 for Alisson, Ederson, Mendy and a slew of 4.5 M keepers we might be considering this year for the last few season (as far back as 16/17 for Pickford).

On a pts per 90 basis, we see why these guys are paid the big bucks - Alisson, Ederson and Mendy dominate the top of this list. No surprises.

Let's take those pts per 90 and adjust them for 💷. It's a simple and straightforward approach but look at how things change. If you consider the points per M metric to indicate value, there is indeed great value in picking a 4.5 M keeper as they take over the top of this list.

Of course, the issue is to pick the RIGHT 4.5 M keeper!!!

We can use prediciton models to consider xCS and try to find value there (more on that later), but we can also look at past #s incl. saves and/or BPS as a sort of expected baseline.

I was working on a bit of this myself when I saw @WGTA_FPL 's post so full credit to Tom here:

In terms of prediction models, 🇸🇰 @FPL_Chase 's preliminary projected CS for GWs 1-6 is not only useful from a #s perspective but is also pretty look at. 😍

A top 5 of MCI, LIV, TOT, CHE & ARS is not surprising for those of us who have looked at the early fixtures. 🧤 Combining these projections with @fplreview 's projected points for GW1-6, I created a simple table shown below.

We still see Ederson & Alisson topping the list (xCS & pts per M), but we see some 'movement' and potential value in some of the 4.5 M keepers like Sanchez and Raya (in addition to seeing that Ramsdale may be being overlooked in the 5.0 M price bracket, though I wouldn't do it).

For me, I won't go with Alisson but I can understand the logic behind picking Ederson and, to a lesser extent, Mendy. I just think the 1.0 M "savings" can lead to quite good upgrades elsewhere, so I am leaning towards a 4.5 M keeper.

I suppose the purpose of this thread was to make you (and me!) think about the premium keeper debate a bit. I've seen plenty of drafts and/or heard discussions that picking Ederson or Mendy is a no-brainer based on the fact that they've dropped in price.

But recent history suggests that picking the RIGHT 4.5 M keeper can provide better value (with that + 0.5 - 1.0 M being used elsewhere!) 💷 If it's the difference between a 7.0 M mid and a 8.0 M mid or allows you to get to Cancelo from Dias/Laporte, then it's worth discussing!

If you've enjoyed reading this thread, I'd appreciate it if you liked and/or RTd. 💙 ♻️

Also, if you're from the Toronto 🇨🇦 area and want to partake in an @FPLMeets with some fellow FPL fans in early Nov, please get in touch! 🍻

Now... tell me... are you going for a 5.5 M "premium," a 5.0 M keeper or going for a 4.5 M keeper like Raya or Sanchez? Cheers, Pete 🍻🤓