๐งต Poland ๐ต๐ฑ
#EURO2020
Thread. ๐งต
Guys, if you thought Pep Roulette was bad, I present to you Paolo Sousa Roleta! ๐ง
A la
@fplze
, the below chart shows mins played over the 3 WCQs and 2 recent pre-Euro friendlies vs. ๐ท๐บ and ๐ฎ๐ธ.
Since taking charge of Poland in Jan, PS has gone full mad scientist testing out 30 players in 5 games (with 27 subs) with very little carry-over from one line-up to the next.
If you can make out anything from that chart, kudos to you! ๐
He has tested out:
๐ต๐ฑ a 3-striker formation (Lewy, Piatek & Milik vs. Andorra)
๐ต๐ฑ 5 different CBs
๐ต๐ฑ a variety of wingbacks and wingers
In terms of predicting a starting XI, there are a few names that are obvious (Szczesny, Krychowiak, Zielinski, Lewy) and the rest honestly have a non-zero chance of being benched.
I have no clue what PS is thinking re: some positions and now we have some players with small knocks. Rybus was unable to train and only played 10 mins vs. ๐ฎ๐ธ - Puchacz (4.0 M) may have overtaken the LWB position.
Bednarek also missed the ๐ฎ๐ธ game, worth monitoring.
It seems Sousa prefers the 352 formation which converts to a more compact 442 or 4411 when defending. From a Fantasy perspective, Puchacz (4.0 M) or Bereszynski (4.5 M) - *if they start! - could offer decent value for a cheap defender.
I don't like guesswork when it comes to predicting starting XIs - which is why I waited until now to write this - but here are a few potential lineups I think we might see (but again, don't hold it against me if I'm wrong ๐) ...
352 with 2 strikers up top - Lewy + Swierczok (5.5 M), Kedziora slotting into RCB and potentially Bereszynski at RWB. Jozwiak (6 M) has prob been one of the better performers over the last 5 games but he's often a super sub. (add Frankowski to RWB discussion in this pic)
It's clear PS prefers 2 strikers up top. Swierczok played more forward vs. ๐ฎ๐ธ (he played much better vs. ๐ท๐บ though) with Lewy dropping back. The idea is that 2 strikers frees up a bit more space for Lewy, which has been an issue in Poland's preferred 4231 of the last few years.
This makes the injuries to Arek Milik and Krzysztof Piatek that much more disheartening ... while Swierczok had a great season for Piast Gliwice, those are different levels we're talking about!
A variant which we might see (but hasn't really been tested) is a 352 with Lewy playing more up top (he drops back quite a bit more for ๐ต๐ฑ than Bayern) supported by Zielinski. I know PZ played more forward for Napoli this season and it translated to more g+a. (8 G, 11 A)
I doubt it happens but this variant prob gets the best players we have all on the pitch at the same time (Swierczok is a bit raw at NT level, but had a good season) ... in the ๐ฎ๐ธ game, you could see Lewy dropping back a bit and Zielinski making more forward runs than usual.
Sousa has talked about translating some of Zielinski's success at Napoli to the NT ... at 7 M, Zielinski is a pretty good pick I'd say (though again his play at NT level hasn't always translated to g+a).
๐ต๐ฑ 0 G + 1 A in 10 Euro qualifiers (old mgr)
๐ต๐ฑ 0 G + 1 A in 3 WCQs so far
He will be on plenty of set pieces and it looks like Sousa is counting on him to be more decisive in getting into good positions (to boot - a goal vs. ๐ฎ๐ธ in his 45 mins).
I'll be honest, I was a bit surprised at the seemingly 'experimental' side Sousa put out vs. ๐ฎ๐ธ yesterday. But now that I think about it and looking at the crazy chart I posted, I don't think this XI will be far off what we see on Mon vs. ๐ธ๐ฐ
Note that this is just sofascore being sofascore. This was most certainly a 352 with Kedziora at RCB, Puchacz LWB, Krych and Moder in the middle, Frankowski RWB and Lewy-Swierczok partnership up top.
So I'll repost the starting XI I think we'll see vs. ๐ธ๐ฐ (or something close to it) unless Sousa has really kept his cards to close to his chest and has duped us all. ๐๐
Frankowski or Jozwiak could start at RWB vs. ๐ธ๐ฐ while we might see Kedziora RCB and Bereszynki RWB vs. ๐ช๐ธ.
TL DR version...
๐ต๐ฑ Lewy is Lewy... while he drops back more for ๐ต๐ฑ he is still absolutely world class and can score a brace any game
๐ต๐ฑ Zielinski being counted on for more offensive output/influence
๐ต๐ฑ Puchacz - if he starts - could be a sweet 4.0 M bargain
TL DR version, cont'd...
๐ต๐ฑ Bednarek at 4.5 M is a popular pick I see.. don't expect goals as I've seen suggested, Glik (5.5 M) is far more likely to get a header goal
๐ต๐ฑ Szczesny is nailed but I don't know if I trust the Poland D for CSs too much tbh ๐
TL DR version, cont'd...
๐ต๐ฑ 352 the most likely formation but expect some personnel changes between the games + risk of some guys being benched due to Sousa's tinkering (at least thus far)