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FZucchi

@FZucchi

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Option trades for L/S positions; corp credit/derivatives; DeMark studies; I trade in t-frames of a few wks to a few mths.

Joined November 2008
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
"The Duopoly I wud shut down in a nanosecond ? The Dem & GOP Parties. Together they r the definition of anti-competitive collusion that has been successful shutting out competition in a manner that is detrimental to the American People every min of every day" Mark Cuban
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 years
$22.025B of corp bonds sold today. $META came looking for $8-10b and walked away w/ $10b. Per BBerg deal was 3x oversubcribed & pricing came in 10-15bps inside IPT. Fair to say it was feeding frenzy. And yes, expect most of this $ to go toward META's bback plans. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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5 years
As a rule of thumb, IG credit funds must dump an issue if 2 of the 3 rating agencies downgrade it to junk. If $F gets a 2nd downgrade, its $78b of unsecured bonds may give the HY market a significant bout of indigestion. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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4 years
3 MAJOR regional malls in D.C. area, Tyson’s Galleria, Mazza Gallerie, Springfield Mall, in various phases of default $BPY $VNO involved.Another mall appealed latest RE tax assessment of $110M & county cut assessment to $55M. Sh*t getting real in CRE land. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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10 months
Saw a post from a widely followed acct declaring $SCHW will be this Sep "Lehman Bros." Today SCHW sold $2.35b of 3y (VAR) & 11y bonds (5.875%) 25bps inside IPT. Maybe the tweep knows something institutional bond buyers don't, bc this is not "bankruptcy" pricing $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
4 years
This imo is a VERY important bit of good news for stabilization: $XOM sold $8.5B of bonds at same coupon as pre-crisis. Despite having been downgraded today. Do NOT shrug this off. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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4 years
$CACC CEO: we are not gonna run the business based on accounting...if running the biz the "right away" causes us to violate loan covenants, we'll run the biz the right away & have a convo w/ lender about the covenants. Not The Onion...but probably should be.
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@FZucchi
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4 years
Governor of Lombardia Attilio Fontana: "“In the last 2 weeks, the Coronavirus emergency room in Parma (Italy) had over 50 patients. Today, for the first time since it was set up, the room is empty” (h/t @macrolutzie Dai Italia! Che ce la fai!!
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@FZucchi
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6 years
1st thought I had after reading $TSLA press release: it is the $XIV of the real world. It is financially designed to go to zero.
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
6 years
$TSLA '25 bonds just traded 0.84. If the stock trades < $252.48 (max conversion ratio for '19 bonds) for any extended period, this company's current capital structure is toast.
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@FZucchi
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2 years
B/w $AAPL and $GOOGL , MTD new buyback annoucements have comfortably topped $200b. Announcements are on pace for more than $1T this yr. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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4 years
$VIX is UP 1pt today at 28.35. Worth repeating daily: "VOLATILITY IS THE INVERSE OF LIQUIDITY", whether stks r going down or up. However, keep in mind that if liquidity is this thin while stocks rise, it will get freakish if/when they start falling into a vacuum. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
1 year
Hello Tweeps! I’m back from being in Twitter jail for > month in a bizarre case of mistaken identity. I’m gonna celebrate w/ a “proud dad” tweet for my son who graduated Tufts in Mech. Eng. Summa Cum Laude. Well done little dude! Well done!
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
4 years
This type of action in IG/HY cash spreads 👇 doesn't inspire "sustainability" for the stock rally. I'm not so greedy to want to see spreads rip tighter before believing that stks have bottomed; all I want is some relative improvement, and this is everything but.. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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3 years
And just like that, $MSFT is gonna dole out another $60b via buybacks, which will then find its way into - and continue to levitate - the indices. It's really not that complicated. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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2 years
$MSOS completed another daily TD Buy Setup, but this time it's coinciding with a wkly Combo Buy 13, and a Monthly TD Buy Setup. While there r a few downside counts that cud still play out, the timeframe trifecta tends to be very promising. cc: @todd_harrison
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@FZucchi
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1 year
$AMGN has just sold $24b of bonds. That's enough to retire 100% of the bridge loan for the purchase of Horizon. Yday's indications were for the amount 2b $18-20b. Pretty much all tranches priced 25bps inside IPT. No cred problems here tweeps. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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6 years
@RiegerReport Can we stop “fact checking” @realDonaldTrump and just assume everything he says/tweets is complete total unadulterated bullshit? The fact pattern is pretty well established.
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@FZucchi
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2 years
1/ Yes, there's more pain to come, but still think this is a cyclical bear mkt for stks, and not a credit/financial/secular crisis in the making. Cred is still very strong, both from a demand standpoint, fundamentals, and risk profile... $SPY $QQQ
@MishGEA
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
@MishGEA
2 years
Expect More Stock Market Pain Because It's Coming Today feels bad for bulls but it is not even a down payment on what's coming. Tweets from @hedgeye @FZucchi @biancoresearch @Mnorinsberg @DiMartinoBooth @michaellebowitz others
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@FZucchi
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2 years
As IG/HY cash spreads widened close to the 150/500bps marks (my arbitrary levels of where cred starts hurting stks), new issuance progressively slowed. Tdy was the 1st significant day to the good since March. Important to get some follow thru. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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4 years
$CACC discloses CFPB investigation. Stock down ~ $20 AH. Who would have thunk that a co. whose biz model is making car loans for the purpose of repossessing cars could face such predicament. 😮😮
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@FZucchi
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3 years
Let me get this straight: buyers of stonks trading at 25x sales, w/out +ve EBITDA for 2-4yrs, and w/out taxable profits for next 5-10 yrs are worried that the corp tax rate goes up 5%? Genius.... $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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2 years
3-mth $VIX curve at -5. That's flat out panic. There have been only 5 other times this level was pierced in the last 18yrs, and only 3x ('08 / '11 / '20) it stayed below that level for more than a week. Monthly char below $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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6 years
If u had any doubts on state of credit mkts, this $IBM / $RHT deal shud resolve'em. $IBM paying 10x sales, & will have $66B of net debt. Let's see how oversubscribed that bond $20-30B offering will be, especially if its cred rating drops 1 notch or 2, & ylds rise accordingly
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
7 years
To those suggesting I'm a brain-washed perma-bull, put this on ur screen: It is almost certain $SPX will print a clean MONTHLY Combo Sell 13 at the end of Dec. Last time that happened, mkt went nowhere for 22 months, w/ some scary draw-downs along way. MEANINGFUL signal imho
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
2 years
1/ Heads-up: this is a RANT. Just saw a thread suggesting there's no liquidity in credit/shades of GFC/etc. Evidence was a bunch of pulled securitizations by shitcos. In fact, even w/spread widening over last few wks. the cred mkt is arguably as strong as ever... $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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4 years
Something not much discussed: GFC was concentrated in banking/financial syst. As unprepared as Fed was, they knew were 2go to plug holes. COVID econ damage is the opposite. The real wreckage will show up in SMEs all over,where is logistically hard for Fed to reach/help $SPY $QQQ
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@FZucchi
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4 years
Good morning all! After a long night spent with a very powerful UV light stuck 8 feet up my ass, I’m virus free and ready to go! Thank you @realDonaldTrump u truly are a stable genius...and look at the size of my hands!!! #MAGA
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@FZucchi
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6 years
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2 years
Cred was a mess tdy: IG/HY cash spreads +7/+33.5; IG CDX +2'ish was "best performer". IG cos pulled their deals. Still think $SPY gonna drop at least 20% from highs (that'd = $384), but $355 - 50% retrace of entire post-Covid move- absolutely in play. $QQQ 261-285
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@FZucchi
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3 years
Can't stop thinking about the saying that the most violent rallies tend to be counter-trend. $QQQ $SPY $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
2 years
Seeing tweets in my TL to the effect HY cred got smacked tdy, presumably bc $HYG $JNK got hit. HY spreads did NOT get smacked. HY spreads were an insignificant 5bps wider. Drop in $JNK $HYG was 90% duration-related. Watch these ETFs as proxy 4 cred @ ur own peril. $SPY $QQQ
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@FZucchi
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5 years
1/ Some nos. behind the much feared widening of CCC spreads: i) The widening is of CCC AND lower rated bonds, not just CCCs; ii) The total amt outstanding of CCC or worse bonds is $89b (excludes issues w/ less than $100M outstanding); $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
4 years
A well informed tweep yday suggested that the oil majors are getting ready to go shopping. $XOM has sold $18b of bonds in the last 30 days. Wud make a lot of sense to me. Buy the assets for near nothing, get rid of the employees...a true Ayn Rand climax $XLE $XOP $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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4 years
Options on $SPX settle on tmrw's open. The SPX 3205 and 3210 calls traded more than 2x the OI today. The SPX closed at 3205. The $ES_F are +7 after the close. If today's SPX call sellers have to re-hedge overnight, could easily see a hell of a gap up tmrw a.m. $SPY
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@FZucchi
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6 years
$AAPL to no longer provide number of units sold for any product. MUY NO BUENO imo
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@FZucchi
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6 years
I won't annoy tweeps w/ chart similarity of current ramp to Jan-Aug '87. But since most who traded back then r no longer around, I promise u the "feel" of mkt is VERY similar. It's deja-vu of my early Aug vaca in Tahoe,shaking my head at stk prices in the paper. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
2 years
HY cash spreads closed +22bps at 548. The MOVE index (the $VIX of bonds) at a new 52wk high. BoE buying up to £60b of long dated gilt in next cpl wks to prop UK pension funds: then what? Today looks more & more like a Bear Stern moment. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
5 years
Annoyingly-braggy dad moment: shout-out to my mini-me’s shown in the handle photo: one graduating from Northeastern in 30 days, the other a brand new Class of ‘23 Tufts Jumbo. U guys have are making mommy and I very proud.
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
2 years
1/👇 chart of HY risk spreads and $HYG . HYG scale is inverted to better show the current divergence. For most of risk spreads up move, HYG followed suit - i.e. it reflected an ↑ in risk profile of junk bonds... $SPY $QQQ $IWM $JNK
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@FZucchi
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4 months
Jan new announced stk buybacks = $62.1b, best Jan since I started tracking in 2017. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
3 years
$MSOS thru DeMark lenses: despite #SAFEBanking #NDAA disappointment, there are downside exhaustion counts at/near completion on daily & wkly. THE crayon-line in the sand is $21.84-21.53. FWIW, 2me feels like most disappointment is priced in. cc: @todd_harrison
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
4 years
Tales from the CRE crypt: per BBerg, the AAA tranche of Starwood Retail Property Trust 2014-STAR - a $700M CMBS backed by regional malls in Wellington, FL (not a slum), Clinton Township, MI, & Norfolk, VA, is changing hands at $0.69 on the $...the AAA tranche. $IYR $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
4 years
A little something for the equity bears: $QQQ tmrw will almost certainly print a daily 9-13-9 Sell signal. "9-13-9"s tend to be significant exhaustion signals...except when this monster of a mkt laughs at it, as it did w/ the latest weekly 9-13-9 Sell. Nonetheless, worth noting.
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
4 years
Per Buzzfeed, $TWTR to let employees work from home permanently. It has ~ 5000 employees. That alone = ~ 750k sq.ft of CRE space gone byebye. Then u have all the symbiotic biz that won't be renting around former TWTR offices... Covid is to CRE what Chernobyl was to USSR $IYR
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
2 years
1/ Been away from screens all day but some quick general thoughts on cred: i) $MOVE (👇) - the $VIX of bonds - has taken out Mar '20 highs. Worth repeating that high vol in cred is almost as big a problem as widening risk spreads: it paralyzes buyers & sellers.. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
4 years
Fed bashing in this crisis is bizarre. It literally stop-gapped collapse of the syst, while Congress effed around. Ik it's "tin-foil chic" to scream "QE, Fed is printing, fat cats bailouts.." blah blah blah. Just be thankful it happened. Alternative was a Mad Max world $SPY $QQQ
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@FZucchi
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6 years
@JohnBlakeCNN Are u previewing an epic piece for "The Onion"?
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
4 years
Credit is again worsening today more than stks. I keep an idx of CDS on US Insurance companies, since they are a large holder of corp bonds. Credit widening is now spilling into the CDS of those companies. Risk is stepping up to yet another level. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
1 year
Not kidding myself that $MSOS turned the corner, but there's a unicorn-like confluence of DeMark sell exhaustion counts on daily wkly mthly. @todd_harrison been noting no volume, no $/volume in #canna for wks. If any real $$ comes in it cud get goofy
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
3 years
Melt-up continues not just in stocks; IG/HY cash spreads -1.6/-5.1bps. IG CDX back to 50bps. My idx of CDS on China sensitive financials is < 300bps - new 8yr low, which is as far back as I go. 3-month $VIX curve at +6.55... wild stuff all around $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
5 years
Tara Westover gave the commencement address at Northeastern Univ. today. I had not heard of her until today. Perhaps the best 18 minutes you'll spend this year.
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
Ok - so I had not looked @ issuance calendar all day & just LOOK what I found: $7.9 BILLION of bonds SOLD so far tdy. This 100% throws a wrench into the bear feast. & I'm really curious 2c how many peeps who been "liking" all my bearish takes, r gonna like this tidbit. $SPY $QQQ
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
5 years
I keep harping that HY ETFs like $JNK $HYG have ZIPPO relationship to the true tone of credit. Today's is a perfect example: both ETFs are down while HY spreads are > 8bps tighter. If u want to track corp credit, deleting the ETFs from ur screens is a good start. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
6 years
Good to see that our idiot-in-chief, he of the "trade wars are great", looks to have blown up the $40B $NXPI / $QCOM deal & on the same day he's spending $12B of our money to prop up ags caught up in his perennial brainfarts. Can't wait for the next episode of #winning
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
Stable genius @realDonaldTrump wearing his IQ score on the hat.
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
1 year
7 mths after it 1st inverted, new low for 2s10s at -85bps. In past cred cycles, after such a long inversion, corp cred was on verge of collapse. This time IG/HY spreads & LevLoans are hitting multi-month tights. U can fight it or accept this cred cycle is different $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
6 years
Just another view from the car...
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
6 years
Soon there will be an entire generation of traders who have never seen a down day. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
1 year
$FRC bonds now trading $0.44. Don't see how this outfit makes it.
@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
1 year
While $FRC stk pops ahead of earnings, its 4.375% bond of 2046 is printing new lows at $0.49 for a 10.2% yield. 🍿
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
2 years
Many tweeps know my approach to stks is based on credit - > specifically what I learned from Brian Reynolds over the yrs. So,fresh off the "screen" here is the man himself. He also touches on some specific sectors $SPY $QQQ $IWM $ES_F $NQ_F $IBB $XBI $XLE
Tweet card media
I think this correction will turn into a bull market, says Reynolds...

Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at Reynolds Strategy, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his outlook on the markets. For access to live and exclusive vi...

www.youtube.com
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
1 year
TD Propulsion is by far the most effective DeMark indicator I use. Today it triggered a target for the 10yr yield up to 4.238%. If it comes to pass, I wud think it will be pretty relevant to stks. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
Once again $SPY +1%, $VIX +1.5% Look, I get it, this can go on and on and it's almost impossible to short. But, ex for FOMO, it is entirely possible to sell longs into it. If/when it turns (w/ a vengeance), no room for bitching. All the warning signs are here. $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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4 years
I don't get what's the fuss about the #NBA starting up again. The way those teams play defense ...they pretty much invented social distancing.
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
If wearing a mask infringes ur “freedom” I suppose so do speed limits, seatbelts, stopping @ red lights, & not being allowed 2walk around naked, which I assume u view as worse than involuntary servitude. In reality, u r just a mindless lemming cult follower #TrumpIsAnIdiot #MAGA
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
11 months
Wanna have a feel for what the internet bubble was like? Take today, multiply it by 2, and do it 4 days a week for close to two years. Something like that. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
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@FZucchi
5 years
After this little stunt regarding the $TSLA CFO departure, there's only 1 question I can't answer: Is @elonmusk resigned to go to jail, or is he ACTIVELY TRYING to go to jail?
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 years
IG cash spreads blew out 6.5bps and the bit of issuance that was percolating was pulled. Mr. 💩 is getting pretty close to Mr. Fan. IMHO there's little to no "problems in corp credit" priced into equity $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
9 months
And the bond issuance orgy is on: per BBerg, today saw 20 IG cos. selling $36b of bonds. Gonna be tough for bears to hit stks hard if cred stays this strong. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
10 months
Per Bloomberg, Sep IG corp bond issuance is expected at ~ $120b. Add in $30-40b of HY, and it wud end up being an "ok" Sep, but nothing gr8. Since 2013, the avg Sep has printed $190b. Last yr. was a bust at $91b, and stks did not take kindly to it. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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1 year
Not only today was a strong volume day of corp bond issuance, but - per BBerg - bids and pricing were the strongest in many months, and mkt looks to be shifting back in favor of issuers. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 years
Lots of talk ~ $CS Last wk I noted CS CDS r trading at ATH. Not good. BUT: a key ingredient of ‘08 is missing: NO CDS curves of major IBs r inverted (& most r not that wide) This suggests traders want ins. They r not worried ~ a collapse here & now. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
3 years
A $MSOS close tmrw > $30.22 wud complete the daily TD Sell Setup. While it may lead to a bit more of a pback/consolidation, it wud also add more confirmation to the idea that the lows are in. cc: @todd_harrison #MSOGang
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
Aside from obvious benefits to society as a whole, it is a constant reminder that any dip in $GOOGL stk due specifically to regulatory/antitrust h/lines shud be bot w/ both hands. If that co is ever split up, a whole bunch of its parts wud become instant unicorns on steroids
@Reuters
Reuters
@Reuters
4 years
Study finds Google system could improve breast cancer detection
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
IG/HY cred cash spreads closed at worst levels of the day. It's a fuc*ing massacre in that space. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
Ex a slight flattening of 3m $VIX curve, & bond mkt absorbing ~ $18.5b of new bonds, nothing 2suggest tdy's pop gonna have legs. Tmrw $SPY will be on bar 2 (1-4 bars is normal range) post daily TDST Buy Setup, but that's small consolation. $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
6 years
Interesting observation via Jeff Saut's daily note: "from Merrill Lynch’s ex-veteran strategist Bob Farrell, ‘If everyone's looking for a test of a prior low, either you don't get a test or, if you do, you shouldn't buy!’” Something to think about. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 years
From this a.m. best levels to now, IG CDX is +5bps. That's a monster move to the bad. Meanwhile IG/HY cash spreads are +1.6/-6bps. So if u r trying to make sense of things... good luck $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
Back in the pre-Covid days, mkt sell-offs could count on buybacks arresting the fall. Credit-fueled buybacks are now a thing of the past. Mind the vacuum below when the selling starts. (Figs for '20 are YTD; Apr volume includes $50b by $AAPL ) $SPY $QQQ $IWM $SPX
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
5 years
As the mkt shreds the bears, I went back ~14 yrs, when I too "knew better" & "for sure the mkt (back then was housing) was ~ 2collapse. Well, I wud be proven right..3 FUC**NG yrs l8r. If it saves 1 bear from my experience, it's worth re-posting Enjoy! 😅
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
6 years
Up to 85k contracts now. That's > $4M of premium at a .09 delta. $TWTR at $70 wud trade at > 20x revenues. Weird weird trade. If something does happen, buyer gonna have some 'splaining
@OptionAlert
Trade Alert
@OptionAlert
6 years
More tweeting about $TWTR. buyer of 60K Jan 70 calls for 55c today w shares near 31. Opens long block at highest strike strike listed!
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
btw, no1 sane shud give a sh*t if $1T is financed or monetized. It's ~ ppl eating &/or being homeless in next few mths.Monetary theory means jack, & b4 whackjob hard-currency survivalists scream ~ hyperinflation, ask me if I care. World just got hit by an asteroid $SPY $QQQ $IWM
@morganhousel
Morgan Housel
@morganhousel
4 years
Shut it all down and do a $1 trillion stimulus. $3k check per adult, that’s $600 billion. Then tell businesses not to worry about payroll during the shutdown. The rest on loans and foreclosure mitigation. Do it tomorrow.
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
11 months
Broken record alert: 60m/10d chart of IG CDX and $SPY $QQQ (inverted scale). For n-t traders, this is as stark a -ve divergence as I can recall in a while. There r many moving parts out there, & stks can continue ripping regardless of cred derivs, but odds r stacking again it.
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
5 months
On flight from LAX to D.C. and there’s enough Botox on this plane to paralyze an elephant.
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 years
Aside from the $CTXS bond horror show, only +1 issuer for $1b tdy. Assuming #Fed day also has no issuance, there'll be only 7 days (5 if u ex-out Fridays) for Sep issuance to get to $100b, which wud be bad for most mths, but is outright freaky scary for a Sep. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 years
Dusted off the mic & video capture for a brief update on DeMark Indicators for $SPY and $QQQ and where they stand on the "Bear Market Rally vs. Start of a New Bull Market" debate via @YouTube
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Update on DeMark Indicators for SPY and QQQ: Bear Market Rally vs....

Spoiler Alert: nothing can answer the above but we can gauge where the probabilities stand.

www.youtube.com
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
My takeaway from JP: unless there's another $2+T handout from Congress the economy will disappoint. Game on for the downtown clowns. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
& now something I've NEVER done b4: I tweet bc I love mkts & creates a journal of sorts. I don't get a dime 4it. If my color has helped u, pls consider a donation to They do God's work 4 local homeless, Thanks! and please retweet. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
5 years
I'm all for solid short research and short activists @AlderLaneeggs @muddywatersre Chanos, etc., but @CitronResearch seems to make shit up on a regular basis. And their reports are written in the kind of self-promoting bullshit way we have come to expect from POTUS $LGND $VKTX
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
Must read....and I don't think I EVER said that of ZH $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
After gapping down, IG CDX now flat. IG/HY cash spreads +5/+18. So not only r cash spreads -vely diverging from stk rally, they r also -vely diverging from their derivs. This is not just the "deep end of the pool": it's a dark lake w/ whirlpools everywhere. Careful $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
3 years
$FB add'l $50b bback puts all new bbacks announced YTD above $700b, and w/in reach of the $889b record set in 2018. In 2019 the $SPX rose 30%. Unless u believe that was a coincidence, that is a pretty clear tell of where the odds are pointing to. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
4 years
I have no idea who’ll win the election, but just the notion that a putrid ignorant racist narcissist psycho like @realDonaldTrump is in the running is a tragic statement on the shape of the country. #TrumpIsALoser #TrumpCrimeFamily
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 years
IG cash spreads have taken out Jul highs and closed > 150bps. Every time spreads rose above 150bps (for > than just a few days), stks got in trouble. The Q is: have stks anticipated spreads widening, or is latter going to pile onto the current bear mkt? $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 years
Heading to the San Diego Zoo with my 22 and 26 yr olds. Apparently they may as well still be 2 and 6. 🙄🙄
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 months
Heads-up tweeps: the 3mth $VIX curve is the most inverted in more than a yr. This is uncharted territory for the 0dte players & don't be surprised if they find themselves "surprised" by how the ivol and the $SPY react if the inversion deepens, especially given the SPY lofty lvl
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
5 years
Sept. corp issuance will break the record for any single month since Jan 2013, with a total in the $220-240b range. As a point of reference, for ALL OF Q3 '07 and Q3'08, issuance was $258b & $119b respectively. Q3 '19 will be just shy of $500b. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
11 months
It’s time for me to invite ridicule, but I’m having PTSD back to Aug ‘87: stks that cud not stop going up, l-t i-rates rising fast, funky stuff happening in Japan…and yes, the sharpest drops happen in secular bull mkts. Just saying… $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
6 years
Can't escape the poetic justice of @realDonaldTrump being tortured by his own DOJ after the only success he has had in his miserable life was by suing weaker opponents into oblivion thru a network of legal extortionists.
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@FZucchi
FZucchi
@FZucchi
2 years
IG CDX gapping wider by 3bps; IG/HY cash spreads +11/+17bps this a.m.; HY closed yday > 500bps and IG cud be > 150bps by close today; yday issuance a meaningless $1.1b. The corp bond mkt is on the edge of becoming +1 major problem for stks. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
Retest or Worse?

How different drivers of equities are behaving as the S&P 500 retests the lows.

filzucchi.substack.com
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