Finance Professor at Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland. Look for updates on Warren Buffett, Finance, Economics, and the Stock Market.
Berkshire Hathaway's $100 billion cash is earning a 4% return (Treasury Bills) for the first time in 15 years, and it can now compete more easily against private equity firms for acquisitions as the cost of money is no longer close to zero and equity prices have declined.
I will be summarizing major portfolio changes by Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, Stanley Druckenmiller, David Tepper, Dan Loeb, Li Lu, and Seth Klarman when they release their 13Fs after the market closes on Wednesday, August 14.
Becky Quick on CNBC asks guest: "If unrealized capital gains are taxed, can unrealized losses be written off? If taxes on unrealized gains are paid one year, are they refunded the next year if those gains become losses?"
Barron's: "Buffett felt that the investment case for unloading the Apple stock was so compelling that he was willing to endure the tax consequences. Buffett essentially decided that he’d rather have cash equal to nearly 80% of the value of the Apple stake than the Apple stock."
Senator Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, and Andrew Yang, a former tech executive and entrepreneur, have both proposed bold plans for redistributing economic resources.
Their plans are as different as can be. Only Mr. Yang’s is practical.
If Warren Buffett had not donated 54% of his shares in Berkshire to several charities since 2006, his stake today would be valued at about $290 billion, far exceeding Elon Musk ($210 billion) as the richest person in the world. Buffett's current stake is valued at $135 billion.
Berkshire Hathaway has purchased 118 million shares of Occidental Petroleum for about $6 billion during the first two weeks of March, representing a 13% stake. If it exercises its warrants to purchase 84 million shares at $59.62, its stake will increase to 20%. $OXY
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CNBC: Warren Buffett since 2006 has given away Berkshire stock now worth more than $117 billion. If he had not done so, his net worth would be more than $224 billion, topping LVMH's Bernard Arnault, the new number one on this year's Forbes list with $211 billion.
Aswath Damodaran (NYU) in Barron's: He recently looked at 80 years of market data and found that big bull runs were commonly carried by 10% of stocks or less “This lack-of-breadth thing drives me crazy.” “You know what? Markets have never had breadth.”
Stan Druckenmiller on CNBC: Critical of Fed's forward guidance, inflation is turning back up, if Trump is elected we will have 6% inflation in 2025, if Biden is elected we will have stagflation, recommends investing in Argentina, Japan and U.S., but avoiding China.
Berkshire Hathaway repurchased $27 billion of its stock in 2021, but only $9 billion in 2023, and just $2.9 billion in the first half of 2024, indicating that Warren Buffett may be viewing Berkshire as approaching full value.
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Finance Professor, on CNBC: Since the 7 large tech companies have cash flows and earnings, they can be viewed as value stocks. The equity risk premium at 4.11% is the lowest it has been since 2008, before the financial crisis indicating a possible correction
Berkshire Hathaway is likely to reveal its "mystery" $5 billion investment in a financial stock (bank or insurance company) when it releases its 13-F after the market closes on May 15. It had previously received confidential treatment by the SEC in Q3 and Q4 2023.
Buffett: “If you’re an Apple user and somebody offers you $10,000 but they’ll take away your iPhone and you’ll never be able to buy another, you’re not gonna take it." He said that if Ford owners were given the same option for $10,000, “you’ll take the $10,000. You’ll buy a Chevy
Berkshire will release its 13F after the market closes today and reveal how it invested $10 billion in "Banks, insurance and finance" during Q1 (WFC? JPM? GS?) and sold about $10 billion in equities (VZ?).
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Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the S&P 500 (with dividends included) in each year that the S&P 500 declined (2022, 2018, 2008, 2002, 2001, 2000) since 1990. It underperformed a declining S&P 500 only in 1990 and 1974. Warren Buffett acquired the company in 1965.
Berkshire's 915 million shares of Apple (September 30, 2023) are currently valued at $181 billion. (Apple closed today at $197.96, an all-time high.) This represents a $150 billion profit and is approximately six (6) times Berkshire's cost ($31 billion).
Warren Buffett, David Tepper, Dan Loeb, Li Lu, and Bill Ackman will be filing their 13Fs for 2023 Q2 after the market closes on Monday, August 14. I will be discussing their major changes here and on my blog early Monday evening.
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) during Q3: Stanley Druckenmiller (top buy), Bill Ackman (top buy), David Tepper (buy), Li Lu (40% of portfolio), Seth Klarman (3rd largest holding), Tom Gayner (3rd largest), Tom Russo (2nd largest), Wally Weitz (largest)
The reason Berkshire took 9 months to accumulate its 26 million share stake in Chubb is because the insurer trades only about 1 million shares per day and Berkshire will purchase up to 15% of those shares each day so it would not drive up Chubb's price.
Berkshire Hathaway (+25.4%) has outperformed the S&P 500 (+18.1%) and 4 of the largest 6 stocks by market capitalization: Microsoft (+10.8%), Alphabet (+18.6%), and Amazon (+16.5%) year-to-date.
Berkshire Hathaway owns 20% of American Express which is up 8.5% today, increasing Berkshire's stake by $2.4 billion. Berkshire's stake is now valued at $30 billion as compared to its cost of $1.3 billion.
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Warren Buffett added $600 million to Berkshire's stake in Apple during Q1 when it briefly reached an attractive price. Since the low for Apple during Q1 was 150, is Buffett buying more Apple at 134 today?
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Berkshire purchased another $582 million of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) from June 29 - July 1 at prices up to $60.37, resulting in a stake of 17.4%, which is currently valued at $9.9 billion. OXY was the best performing stock in the S&P 500 during the first half of 2022. $OXY
Highest Operating Cash Flow Last 12 Months
Apple $116 B
Microsoft $103 B
Alphabet $102 B
Amazon $85 B
Amazon $71 B
Exxon Mobil $55 B
Berkshire $49 B
Bank of America $45 B
Wells Fargo $40 B
Berkshire initial stakes $3 billion in Citigroup, $2.6 billion in Paramount Global (formerly ViacomCBS), $1.1 billion in Celanese, $900 million in McKesson, $400 million in Ally Financial, and sells $8 billion Verizon.
After the market closes on May 15, I will summarize 13F portfolio changes for Warren Buffett (Berkshire), Stan Druckenmiller, Li Lu, Dan Loeb, Seth Klarman, Bill Ackman, and David Tepper.
Berkshire Hathaway: “In identifying director nominees, the Governance Committee does not seek diversity... The Governance Committee looks for individuals who have very high integrity, business savvy, an owner-oriented attitude and a deep genuine interest in the Company.”
Becky Quick on CNBC: Warren Buffett wrote the names of 5 people on a piece of paper who he thought could outperform the market over time. Seth Klarman (Baupost Group) was one of those names and he made an extremely rare public appearance on CNBC this morning.
Warren Buffett (age 93) at the end of Berkshire's annual meeting:
"Thank you very, very much for coming, and I not only hope that you come next year, but I hope I come next year.”
Berkshire's 2023 Annual Report and Warren Buffett's Letter to Shareholders will be released on Saturday, February 24 at 8:00 am ET. It will include Warren Buffett's tribute to Charlie Munger.
Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) added $350 million (6 million shares) of Occidental Petroleum on September 26, 27 and 28, paying up to $61.37 per share, for a total stake of 20.8% (27.4% if Berkshire's warrants were exercised).
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Greg Abel's (Warren Buffett's designated successor) $68 million purchase of Berkshire A shares on September 29, 2022 at between $405,000 and $408,000 per share represent a 25% discount from their 52 week high of $544,389 achieved exactly 6 months earlier on March 29, 2022.
Bill Ackman's (Pershing Square Capital) largest holding on March 31 was Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which comprised 20% of his portfolio. After 4 pm ET today he will file his 13F for the quarter ending June 30. I will discuss if he reduced his stake in CMG as it rose in price.
Berkshire (+22.9%) is outperforming the S&P 500 (+16.5%), and 4 of the 6 largest companies by market capitalization: Apple (+17.4%), Microsoft (+11.3%), Alphabet (+16.7%) and Amazon (+16.5%) year-to-date.
Why Buffett likes Occidental: CEO Vicki Hollub (February 25, 2022): OXY "will invest in our highest-return assets to generate long-term sustainable free cash flow. The long-term sustainability of our dividend will be enhanced by continued deleveraging and share repurchases." $OXY
This evening I will be summarizing major Q4 portfolio changes (13Fs) of Warren Buffett, Stanley Druckenmiller, Seth Klarman, Dan Loeb, Bill Ackman, Li Lu, and David Tepper.
Berkshire sold about $5 billion CVX and perhaps $3 billion ATVI in Q1 along with possibly BK, USB and ALLY to account for its net sale of $10 billion in equities ($8 billion in “Commercial and Industrial” and $2 billion in “Banks and Finance”).
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Apple's compounded annual return from its IPO in 1980 is 19%. Berkshire's compounded annual return from Warren Buffett's acquisition in 1965 is 20%.
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Berkshire purchased an additional $273 million of Occidental Petroleum shares on May 25, 26, and 30 at prices up to $58.70 increasing its stake to 24.9%.
Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub on CNBC: Focuses on stock buybacks and return on invested capital, spoke to Warren Buffett a few days ago on technical issues relating to drilling. Current $75-$80 per barrel are mid-cycle prices. Lack of new supply will push prices higher.
Berkshire added $1.5 billion (27 million shares) to its $4.5 billion stake in Occidental Petroleum between March 9 - 11 at up to $58 per share. $OXY
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Berkshire's cash on June 30 as a percentage of total assets equaled 25% in 2024, 14% in 2023, 12% in 2022, 16% in 2021, 19% in 2020, 16% in 2019 ... and 11% in 2014.
Berkshire purchased another 12 million shares of Occidental Petroleum for about $700 million at $57 - $59 on July 5 and 6, and now owns a total of 175 million shares, giving it a stake of 18.7% valued at $10.8 billion.
Today is Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice Chairman Charlie Munger’s 99th birthday.
Happy Birthday, Charlie! (Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett is 92.)
Happy New Year Everyone!
Berkshire (Warren Buffett) reduced its holdings in major banks during the Q4 2022 as follows:
(1) U.S. Bancorp (-$3 billion) (-91% of stake)
(2) Bank of New York Mellon (-$1.5 billion) (-60% of stake)
Berkshire 13F: Buys about $2 billion each of Merck, Abbvie, and Bristol-Myers Squibb, sells 95% of JPM, 46% of WFC, 43% of GOLD, 36% of MTB, and 64% of PNC
Over the past decade, Berkshire's average portfolio turnover rate has been quite low, often ranging between 5% to 10% per year. The average turnover rate for large-capitalization managed equity funds over the past 10 years typically ranges from 30% to 60% per year.
Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.2 billion or 10% stake in HP, Inc. (HPQ). The size of this investment indicates Warren Buffett made the purchase. $HPQ
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Berkshire Hathaway purchased an additional 6.7 million shares of Occidental Petroleum for $390 million from August 4-8 up to $60.02 per share. It now owns 188.5 million shares which equals a stake of 20.2%. $OXY
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Since Buffett focuses on cash levels excluding cash at the company’s railroad and utility businesses, by that measure, cash stood at $271.5 billion, up from $182 billion on March 31.
Berkshire's 10-Q for the second quarter will be released on Saturday, August 3 at 8 am ET and will likely reveal additional sales of Apple after reducing its stake by 13% during the first quarter. $AAPL $BRK.A $BRK.B
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Bill Ackman: Regional bank stocks are an incredible bargain now. This means that one of the great trades would be to buy regional bank stocks or ETFs here.
I would be surprised if Warren isn’t putting capital to work in his favorite regional banks now.
Why Berkshire likes Capitol One
(1) Only 22% of deposits uninsured (vs. 94% for SVB, 89% Signature Bank, 67% First Republic)
(2) Credit Cards represent 65% of net revenue and 67% of net income
(3) Third largest credit card company in U.S.
(4) Bought back 8% of shares in 2022
Berkshire Q3 operating earnings up 41% primarily resulting from very strong performance in insurance, both underwriting and investment income. Profit declines in railroad and utilities and energy. Bought back $1.1 billion of its common stock in Q3 vs. $1.4 b in Q2 and $7.0 b YTD.
With Treasury Bills yielding 5% for the first time since 2007 with no risk and exempt from state and local taxes, and with the S&P 500 trading at a price/earnings multiple of 18.5 which is well above its 20 year average of 15, short-term Treasuries appear to be very attractive.
Andy Serwer in Barron's: Warren Buffett will write about Charlie Munger in the next Berkshire Hathaway annual report (in two months). He will not be doing interviews or commenting on Munger now.