Devin LaSarre @DevinLaSarre Twitter profile

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

4 months

Newest out. Haypp Group: Ahead of the Nicotine Pouch Megatrend $HAYPP $PM $BTI $MO $IMBBY $STG

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Last Seen Profiles

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@liana_sar

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@ekichoTAMA

@jadelittle161

Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

We are entering the New Era of Nicotine. Sitting at the forefront of this pivotal shift are 2 companies, Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco. Full-year analysis and valuation. $PM $BTI $MO

Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco: At the Forefront

2022 full-year analysis and valuation.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

The worst hand in poker is the second-best hand. Thinking about this often. h/t @rhunterh

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

Newest piece out. British American Tobacco: Toward a Powerful Inflection $BTI $BATS.L $PM $MO

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

BAT's transformation is reaching a powerful inflection point. $BTI $PM $MO

British American Tobacco $BTI: Analysis, Valuation, and Pricing, 2022

The bases are loaded, there are no outs, and BAT is ready to swing for the fences.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

New piece out on S u b s t a c k. British American Tobacco: A Great Divergence $BTI $BATS.L $PM $MO

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

Altria $MO: Analysis, Valuation, and Pricing, Comprehensive, 2022

Altria is an unloved old-economy stalwart that is slowly reinventing itself as it continues to spit out mountains of cash.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

Today’s world has a surplus of hastily formed opinions and a severe shortage of honest reflection.

Cascades

A butterfly effect requires more than just a butterfly.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

New piece out on S u b s t a c k. The Real Story of Buffett, Berkshire, and Tobacco $BRK $BRKA $BRKB $MO $PM $BTI

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Zuckerberg’s moves are seen as bizarre by most, but all aim to achieve one single goal. $META

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

This company pushed hard into energy markets after the fall of Enron. Charged into CDSs during the GFC. And now, ICE is stepping on the accelerator in the mortgage ecosystem as rates continue to rise and real estate prices waver. $ICE

Intercontinental Exchange $ICE: Analysis and Valuation, 2022

Turning up the heat when markets cool.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

6 months

Newest out. British American Tobacco: Identity Crisis $BTI $BATS.L $MO $PM $IMBBY $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

New piece out on S u b s t a c k. On almost every level, Q1 2023 results show Philip Morris International under pressure. Yet, I don’t think there has been a period in which the company has been better positioned than now. $PM $BTI $MO

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

3 months

$PM touting #ZYN subscriptions via email. Nicotine as a Service.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

Newest piece out. Scandinavian Tobacco Group: The Artisanal Serial Acquirer

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

FTX reminds us of what crypto does best: Blowing up.

FTX: Another One Down

A simple look at crypto's latest implossion.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

4 months

Newest out. British American Tobacco: Shining Through $BTI $PM $MO $IMBBY $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

Newest out. Philip Morris International: Outstanding Momentum $PM $BTI $MO

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Altria: The Ultimate Balancing Act Q4 2022 and Full-Year analysis and valuation $MO $PM $BTI

Altria: The Ultimate Balancing Act

Q4 2022 and Full-Year analysis and valuation

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

26 days

ZYN shortage is affecting everyone, including Haypp. $PM $HAYPP

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 months

Newest out. OTIS: To Go Unnoticed $OTIS

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

“Food inflation is the catalyst for many popular uprisings, and the path from empty shelves to the guillotine has historically been a direct one.”

Doomberg

@DoombergT

2 years

On the Cusp of an Economic Singularity

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

People constantly shout that the tobacco industry is doomed. Are they correct? I don’t think so, and I believe there is compelling data that explains why. $PM $BTI $MO $SWMA

The New Era of Nicotine

Headlines and pundits continually tout that the tobacco industry is doomed. Are they correct? I don’t think so, and I believe there is compelling data that explains why.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

Consensus sees $META as rancid. And I can't help but be drawn to assets others have soured on.

Meta: Pain and Patience

Liking what everyone else loves to hate.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Altria's investment track record is better than you think. $MO

Altria’s Investment History

It's better than you think.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Just published on S u b s t a c k. Altria continues to take one more step across the tightrope, balancing its operations against a myriad of challenges. $MO $PM $BTI

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

8 months

Newest out. Philip Morris International: Only Scratching the Surface $PMI $MO $BTI $IMBBY

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Newest piece out. Writing for the Long Run. Invariant is crossing 4,000 subscribers at the 1-year mark.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 month

Newest out. Philip Morris International: Product Position $PM $MO $IMBBY $BAT $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

4 months

Newest out. Philip Morris International: More More More $PM $MO $BTI $IMBBY $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

WhatsApp almost failed. Now it's likely to become Meta's next growth engine. $META

WhatsApp: Meta's Next Growth Engine

A look at Meta's least appreciated asset.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 months

Do you think we are in the early innings of a nicotine pouch boom? If so, listen.

Andrew Walker

@AndrewRangeley

2 months

Told @DevinLaSarre when we started recording that this is one of the best write ups I've read this year, and had a blast diving into it Also shows how baby-addled my mind is that I was convinced it was spelled Snoo, not Snu

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Some interesting excerpts from British American Tobacco's H1 Pre-Close Conference Call covering what's been front of mind for many investors. $BTI $BATS.L On rationalizing pausing buybacks and prioritizing deleveraging:

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

The Perils of ESG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Newest piece out. Second-Hand Retail: A First-Class Market $WINA $SVV

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

3 months

Newest out. The Nicotine Arc $MO $PM $BTI $IMBBY $STG $HAYPP

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

7 months

Newest out. OTIS: Compounding Lifetime Value Q3 2023 note on the human mobility tax. $Otis

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

$PM ZYN US Shipment Volumes (Q2 2023 +53.1% y/y, TTM +43.8% y/y). Absolutely ripping.

Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

$PM Cigarette + HTU Total Shipment Volumes (Q2 2023 +3.3% y/y). Looking pretty likely 2023 will be 3rd consecutive year of + vols.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

10 months

Newest out. Altria: Executing Where It Counts $MO $PM $BTI

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

New piece out on S u b s t a c k. Meta: The Foundation $META

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Otis continues its transformation into a highly-profitable service-focused business with a flywheel that can create substantial long-term value. Full-year analysis and valuation. $OTIS

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Some interesting excerpts from Philip Morris International's presentation at the 2023 Deutsche Bank Global Consumer Conference: $PM How big can ZYN get? "The U.S. potential seems to be enormous."

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

4 months

Newest out. The ZYNpocalypse #zyn $PM $MO $BTI $IMBBY $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

United-Guardian is a very weird, very profitable nanocap. $UG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 months

Newest out. Generational Smoking Bans

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

8 months

Newest out. Logista: The Distribution Pillar of Imperial Brands $IMBBY $MO $PM $BTI

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

👀 here we go. $MO $BTI $BATS.L $PM

FDA Tobacco

@FDATobacco

1 year

To help protect the nation’s youth, FDA announced warning letters issued to 189 retailers for selling unauthorized tobacco products, specifically Elf Bar and Esco Bars products. These disposable e-cigarettes come in flavors known to appeal to youth.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

8 months

Newest out. Imperial Brands: Looking Through the Noise $IMBBY $MO $PM $BTI

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

8 months

Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he'll feed himself for a lifetime. Give a man the 1944 Moody's Industrials Manual, and he will truly overwhelm you with obscure data points and esoteric insights.

Doug Ott

@yesandnotyes

8 months

My new purchase is freaking massive.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

Premium handmade cigars are a multi-billion dollar sleeper category in the tobacco industry. Completely overlooked.

Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

Newest piece out. Scandinavian Tobacco Group: The Artisanal Serial Acquirer

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Who else is excited to see $MO get cast into the depths of hell tomorrow?

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

10 months

OTIS: The Next Phase $OTIS

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

9 months

Newest out: Scandinavian Tobacco Group: Liberation $STG $MO $BTI $PM

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

3 months

Newest out. Scandinavian Tobacco Group: Across the Board $STG $MO $PM $BTI $IMBBY

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

What is greatness?

Peak Performance

What is greatness?

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

This recently spun, durable business isn't sweating under pressure. $CARR

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

7 months

Newest out. Scandinavian Tobacco Group: Pockets $STG $MO $BTI $PM $IMBBY

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

United-Guardian is the smallest, most profitable company you've never heard of. $UG

United-Guardian $UG: Analysis, Valuation, and Pricing, 2022

The smallest, most profitable company you've never heard of.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

7 months

Newest out. Altria: Recalibration $MO $PM $BTI $IMBBY

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

29 days

Newest out. Altria: Rorschach $MO $PM $IMBBY $BTI $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 month

Newest out. Haypp Group: Pricing Gaps $HAYPP $PM $BTI $MO $STG $IMBBY

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

4 months

Newest out. Altria: The Great Race $MO $PM $BTI $IMBBY $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

@DoombergT almost said the naughty word

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

3 years

Interested in what it takes to grow a business into a trusted brand? Over the next 30 days, I'm writing 30 Atomic Essays as a part of @dickiebush 's and @nicolascole77 's #ship30for30 ✅Business ✅Brand strategy ✅Design ✅Finance ✅+ more. Follow along in this thread below 👇

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

7 months

When most people think of Mars they think of candy bars like Snickers and Milky Way. But that's actually a smaller part of the business nowadays. For decades they've been quietly consolidating the petcare indus...

Preferred Shares Podcast

@Pfdshares

7 months

Episode 4! Mars Incorporated: Inside America's Most Secretive Consumer Goods Empire

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

What are the odds $PM re-rates to be in line with (or even higher than) other top FMCG brands? CFO's comments in June at the DB conference:

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

BAT's new categories are winning consumers. $BTI

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

10 months

Newest out. Intercontinental Exchange: The Green Light $ICE $BKI $CSU

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

3 years

Have you ever been so pissed off that you disrupted an entire industry? Learn about someone who did. Day 7/30 in #ship30for30

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

$PM ZYN US Shipment Volumes (Q1 2023 +47% vs. Q1 2022)

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Some distilled thoughts on what actually matters for Altria $MO $PM $BTI

Altria Investor Day 2023

Distilling what matters.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

3 months

Newest out. There Aren't Many John Middletons $MO $PM $BTI $IMBBY $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Recent FDA behavior shows a shift in focus and is more important than new acquisition announcements for the U.S. tobacco space. $MO $BTI $PM

Changing Gears: A Shift in U.S. Tobacco Regulation

A look at recent FDA behavior, including the CTP's response to the Reagan-Udall Report.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

@rhunterh Dude sees positive EV off a single round of Russian Roulette so he pulls the trigger 6 times. Brilliant

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

22 days

The ZYN shortage is widespread and may last for months, according to Nicokick (Haypp)

Oh Come On!

@BluthCapital

22 days

#ZYNgularity is bc politicians threatened to ban it so ppl are stockpiling, spreading the word to create more fans. The Streisand Effect creating lollapalooza profits...has this happened before? $PM

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Newest out on S u b s t a c k. Go give it a read!

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

This discussion between @DoombergT and @philbak1 is one of the best things I've listened to this year. Invaluable if you create content or ever communicate with other humans.

Doomberg: Provocative Not Polarizing

Listen to this episode from The Phil Bak Podcast on Spotify. Doomberg joins the podcast to share how they mastered the art of content generation, the five pillars of business, and the secret to their...

open.spotify.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

4 months

A special thanks goes out to @EightTrack180 and his family. They've been incredibly helpful in mapping out this company. Jason was kind enough to provide some commentary for the piece:

Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

4 months

Newest out. Haypp Group: Ahead of the Nicotine Pouch Megatrend $HAYPP $PM $BTI $MO $IMBBY $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

As other companies attempt to race away from the fact they’ve been overspending with little to show for it, Altria is on a different path. $MO $PM $BTI

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

I've been writing on Substack for just over 6 months. It has been wonderful. And I can't wait to destroy some of my own pieces. To a new year and an old habit:

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

$BTI $BATS.L Despite combustible volume weakness, pricing and brand management have allowed the company to produce substantial value, continue to deleverage, and return substantial sums of capital to shareholders while aggressively reinvesting into all 3 of its new categories.

Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

$BTI $BATS.L New Categories have steadily grown as a percentage of total.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

8 months

The FDA has not once given an MGO to a pod-based vape that has a non-tobacco characterizing flavor. $BTI will obviously fight this, plus RT and GT Alto PMTAs are still pending. RT and GT have higher chances of MGO, much like Vibe and Ciro

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Is Altria acquiring NJOY a good deal? Good for who? $MO

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

7 months

Newest out. Imperial Brands: Mechanical Animal FY'23 note on aggressive share cannibalism. $IMBBY $MO $PM $BTI

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

20 days

1 week later, and Haypp has increased their ZYN cap to 25 cans per 30 days from 10 per 30 days. Price has been dropped as well

Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

26 days

ZYN shortage is affecting everyone, including Haypp. $PM $HAYPP

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

Lots of noise on $MO. JUUL is NOT consolidated into Altria's financials. There will be an appeal. If removed, potential marginal + for cig vols. Eq already written down by more than 80%. Majority of the damage was not done today, but rather when Altria massively

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

9 months

Thrilled to be working on such a fun project with @yesandnotyes and @lhamtil !

Preferred Shares Podcast

@Pfdshares

9 months

Episode 1! Vending Machine Mania

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

6 months

Newest out. Toxic State How the FDA is failing America.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

3 years

Interested in active investing and economics? Over the next 30 days, I'm writing 30 Atomic Essays as a part of @dickiebush 's and @nicolascole77 's #ship30for30 ✅ Finance ✅ Psychology ✅ Philosophy ✅ History ✅ + more Follow along in this thread below 👇🏼

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Bigger crackdown incoming? $MO $BTI $BATS.L $PM

FDA Tobacco

@FDATobacco

1 year

Today, FDA issued warning letters to 30 retailers, including one distributor, for illegally selling unauthorized tobacco products, specifically various types of Puff and Hyde disposable e-cigarettes.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

5 months

Logista's tobacco distribution business continues to produce significant (and growing) value despite narratives that the entire industry is swirling the drain.

Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

5 months

In Italy, next-gen products have become a notable tailwind, with Logista's management citing both IQOS HTUs ( $PM) and vapes as major growth drivers.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

Disaggregating the 12mo trailing data on ZYN volumes helps visualize how nuts the past 2 qtrs have been.

Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

11 months

$PM ZYN US Shipment Volumes (Q2 2023 +53.1% y/y, TTM +43.8% y/y). Absolutely ripping.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

Winmark's margins are a thing of beauty. $WINA

Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

1 year

It's amazing to think that Winmark almost went bankrupt decades ago. John Morgan's focus on franchises led to an incredible turnaround.

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

3 months

Newest out. Logista: Undisturbed $IMBBY $MO $PM $BTI $STG

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

Many gems of wisdom. @marketplunger1 interviewing @DoombergT is an absolutely fantastic listen.

Doomberg: The Story Behind The Green Chicken

Listen to this episode from Value Hive Podcast on Spotify. Hey Guys! I started The Value Hive Podcast three years ago on the floor of my bedroom in my parents house. Today, I interviewed the iconic...

open.spotify.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

3 years

I've finished 30 days of writing atomic essays! Here are the most important things I've learned. Day 30/30 in #ship30for30

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

How the FDA's JUUL MDO and nicotine reduction legislation impact Altria. $MO

Altria’s Teflon or Kryptonite? Making Sense of the FDA’s Aggressive Approach to Nicotine

I’m left scratching my head as it seems that the FDA may have forgotten the rules of its own game.

invariant.substack.com

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

overpaid for their 35% stake in late 2018. This is addressed in my writeup (pinned in bio) In the valuation portion, I specifically assigned 0 value to JUUL, i.e., marking down equity investment to 0. If you're focused on fcf, today's news likely doesn't change your view much

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

9 months

Going Long Preferred Shares

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Devin LaSarre

@DevinLaSarre

2 years

Everyone is so focused on the short term, they've forgotten what it takes to maximize long-term results. $MO

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