First, this is a surprise. I have not seen anyone predicting this. There is only one way to see it, as a set-back for Russia The island is strategically important, so giving it up cannot have been an easy decision. Russian Navy cruiser capturing the island on first day of war:

As well as providing surveillance, the rock would be part of territorial claims, or sea etc. Whoever holds it going into a political solution has an advantage From earlier in war, but you get the picture

Once the cruiser Moskva, with it's S-300F air defense missiles, had been sunk on April 13-14, the Russian garrison on the Island became more vulnerable however. Drone and air attacks led to Russia placing more and more air defenses there

However these air defenses ultimately lost the battle of attrition

Russia made repeated attempts to reinforce the air defenses there with Tor and Pantsir systems. Much heroics was reported (and in part probably true) But a landing ship and a tug boat (more a utility ship) were lost. This Pantsir seen here has almost certainly been destroyed

The arrival of Harpoon, MRLS and other longer ranged Western weapons bolstered #Ukraine 's existing arsenal, making the island relatively easy to bombard. It became indefensible

So the Russians withdrew. Reportedly they say "Snake Island move shows we're not hampering food exports" This is confusing since a blockade is not dependent on Snake Island at all. If Russia wanted to let the grain ships past all they would have to do is not shoot. Blockade:

Also the Blockade is enforced by warships (and potentially submarines if it came to it). We have observed them operating south of Snake Island

It is unclear whether Ukraine will occupy the island. If they do, and the fighting continues, they will find it just as hard to defend as Russia did Possibly just a flag mission?

So to conclude, this is a big deal. It's also a reminder why we shouldn't make predictions

@CovertShores @COUPSURE @WarintheFuture @Saturnax1 @UKDefJournal @UAWeapons @oryxspioenkop @CavasShips @Aviation_Intel @KyleMizokami @samlagrone Yes indeed, but what about the 5 subs that just left Sevastopol 🤔😬

@IlseVonSch @COUPSURE @WarintheFuture @Saturnax1 @UKDefJournal @UAWeapons @oryxspioenkop @CavasShips @Aviation_Intel @KyleMizokami @samlagrone There weren't 5 submarines in Sevastopol as far as I am aware

@CovertShores @COUPSURE @WarintheFuture @Saturnax1 @UKDefJournal @UAWeapons @oryxspioenkop @CavasShips @Aviation_Intel @KyleMizokami @samlagrone Why was this a surprise? I thought it was well understood that Snake Island, being tiny and bare, was almost impossible for anyone to defend.

@Capital23433875 @COUPSURE @WarintheFuture @Saturnax1 @UKDefJournal @UAWeapons @oryxspioenkop @CavasShips @Aviation_Intel @KyleMizokami @samlagrone It's a bit like Bitcoin

@CovertShores Strategically not worth much to Ukraine, but in terms of propaganda it's a huge fillip. Snake Island's biggest value has always been the stories told about it, so for Russia to withdraw is symbolically important.

@TheDreadShips Personally I think it’s strategically valuable to either

@CovertShores @COUPSURE @WarintheFuture @Saturnax1 @UKDefJournal @UAWeapons @oryxspioenkop @CavasShips @Aviation_Intel @KyleMizokami @samlagrone @threadreaderapp unroll