Lake Cornelia Research Management @CorneliaLake Twitter profile

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

2 months

$PWFL $MIXT $IOT Lake Cornelia Research Management announces new long position in $PWFL. Sees $6+ target, with potential for a full-rate into comp group with Samsara $IOT (ie $21 = 8x EV/Revenue vs. $IOT at ~15x). Our $6 target is ~8x forward EBITDA. Management really doesn't…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

Michael Cembalest, the brilliant market strategist at $JPM …highlighting how much of an outlier $SIVB was in two charts: 1. Highest risk, least sticky deposit base 2. Worst capital position $42 billion of $170+ billion of deposits was yanked in 1 day. Doubt any other bank…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$SIVB $SIVBP $KRE $FRC $SBNY Feds seized $SIVB. The stock, preferred and bonds will be zero'd. Normally, a seizure is announced concurrent to a sale of the deposits and some assets. Given how fast moving this is, they seized first. We expect a sale of the deposits and some…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$SIVB $SBNY $KRE $SPY JPow has used the nukes. Near perfect regulatory response and what market needed (and in our view what should have been done). Still reading but that is first take. They have done all they can to (1) slow a likely bank run, (2) backstopped the system and…

Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

@nsantini99 Exactly. This is why the Fed will use the tactical nukes on Monday. JPow ain’t going to do the slow burn like he did during Covid. The launch codes are ready, he will use one or two of his Ohio class subs and launch a full spread. Bank panic 101: the lender of last resort…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$SIVB $SIVBP $QQQ $ARKK $RILY The market implications of this situation are far and wide. We have a $210+ billion balance sheet (which was a mere 86 billion 2 years ago) that could well have an unwind. It is not a stretch at all to argue that on a current mark to market basis…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

4 months

Love this story Platt gave in "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" about having one of his traders who was up $500 million to roll $100 mm of PNL into the new year... Q: Generals fight the last war. Speculators trade the last market. How have you managed to keep your risk so incredibly…

Woodrow Oates Montague

@sadvalueinvestr

4 months

Anyone have a better recent track record than Bluecrest? Wow.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 month

Hedge Fund Stories: Calling a trader for "color" One of the pains of market neutral, or really any hedge fund seat, is the moment you are asked to call a sell side trader to "get color" by your PM. In market neutral land, a position that falls out of bed by 2-3% relative is a…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

5 months

For those new to energy investing and go through their first "year of frustration" I want you to know that we all feel your pain. The two worst things that could have happened for my long run development as an equity investor were 1. Starting at a distressed credit fund and 2.…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$RIG $TDW $SDRL $DO $BORR $NE $VAL We have had a series of meetings over the last few weeks with brokers, industry participants and the CEO of $RIG. Below is a composite of our discussions: Industry Color: - Equinor realizing they screwed up and will probably do an open tender…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

6 months

$TLT

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

23 days

@SxLongshadow Is this satire? I militant Marxist Leninist talking about suing someone because what they are doing is "illegal"...

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

6 months

There was an early moment of my hedge fund career that drove this point home 👇. The first hedge fund I worked at was a large investor in the Enron bankruptcy. They used to do firm wide teach ins on the big positions so everyone felt enfranchised. They put the capital…

junkbondinvestor

@junkbondinvest

6 months

This is how your capital structure looks like after engaging in "liability management" #WeWork $WE

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

9 days

@ProfSecchi Always funny to meet a STEM kid with a 4.0 GPA that wears an N95.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

4 months

When the obituary of HFs is written and you get a series of 30 for 30 episodes on the key players...I look forward to Tepper's being just like the "I Hate Christian Laettner" episode on The Fab 5 vs. Duke basketball. A story (everyone has them...): It's late 2005 and I have…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 month

Investment Banking Stories: First Year Analysts One of the guys in my circle got it "really bad" in banking. M&A group at a BB and this was summer '04, so things were coming back strong but the banks really didn't hire enough people. I know people like to flex with hours…

JUNK BOND ANALYST

@junkbondanalyst

1 month

The plan: - pregame in the east village 3br flex - go to west village bar (no ratio) - wait in line for 45 min before paying $50/guy to go in - order 2 drinks (30 min wait) - request rufus du sol - speak to ZERO women - order uber XL home (by accident) - pass out, miss doordash

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

5 days

Reflections on My Pod Failure: I helped run an event driven pod strategy for years. It’s really hard. Most pod shops have long moved away from this strategy (outside of arb) after years of failure. “Catalyst” is just too hard for the risk model. Why? Let’s pull a Charlie…

Kuppy

@hkuppy

6 days

@CorneliaLake I literally do not understand the pod model. It’s baffling. They got run over in $TDW. Now these same guys are leaning into $AMRK cause they think it reports shitty calendar Q1 numbers (I agree-BTW) and they miss that we’re in a bull mkt for metals and things are looking up for…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

4 months

Hedge Funds: The "Dark Arts" of Merger Arb For ~7 years I was the "not arb" guy on a team of merger arb jedis. I had a front row seat to the $ABBV / Shire drama, $NXPI and many other sorted episodes of craziness. With $SAVE / $JBLU in the headlines, we hope everyone is taking…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

6 months

Congrats to Lord Chanos. 40 years in the industry is the metric that says it all. Guy seemed to play the game in his own way and enjoyed the ride more than most.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 month

Hedge Fund Stories: curse of the misfits who called the subprime short in 2007 David Tepper wasn’t the only legend to miss the greatest credit trade ever: subprime CDS. Most of the big boys did. Playing the tape forward, prospectively you were actually better off investing…

Citrini

@Citrini7

1 month

why did I sell it at 1.8 when THE DOG HAS A HAT damn

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 month

HVAC rollup exposure is ~17% of all private credit. It is a bigger issue than CRE for regional banks. There is an entire eco-system of human capital that starts in middle market PE, gets into Yale School of Management for an MBA and then tries to justify paying 10x cash flow…

Chris Hoffmann

@STLChrisH

1 month

The collapse of many private equity backed HVAC roll-ups will be driven by the convergence of 2 critical issues: 1. Lack of depth on leadership bench 2. Broken incentives, misalignment upon founder's exit at "2nd bite" Let me unpack this approaching trainwreck... 🧵

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

5 months

Friendly reminder that David Tepper, the greatest HF manager (non quant) of all time..got dumped by his girl friend of 5 years: His college buddy Roland Lazzaro aired a video tribute to his friend. One segment was called “Cindy Perl: Thanks for Nothing,” after Tepper’s…

Women Posting L’s

@WomenPostingLs

5 months

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

26 days

Take: I am sure glad that the SPR is filled to the rim. It was really smart of the administration to debate between the merits of $70 vs $80 oil to refill it. That potential savings of $3 billion dollars was well worth the potential economic impact of oil going to $150+ during…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$RIG $TDW $VAL $NE $SDRL $BORR $DO Valuation math using Cowen numbers & some extrapolation for $RIG. Similar math holds for rest of group. $RIG uniquely has a de-leveraging story - as does $BORR - coupled with near term unlevered FCF. $15-20 for $RIG comes from $550k/day…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

3 months

Was in the audience at Ira Sohn in 2009 when @BillAckman presented $GGP. It was probably the most impressive pitch I have ever heard. The stock was about $1.25 at the time and would be $15+ in a year. His core argument was (1) assets were greater than liabilities- duh and (2)…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

4 months

As of at least 2013 there were still ~200 hedge funds with sub $1 billion of AUM, located in crappy midtown office space where the founder was a menace to employees, underpaid consistently and once a week would make people agree with him/her that David Tepper was just "lucky" and…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 month

$DELL Is this the greatest LBO ever in terms of value created? There is a November 2023 FT article that notes $70 billion in gains.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 month

Big shout out to @hkuppy for his well deserved nomination as the best emerging hedge fund manager ([20] years in the making!). Guy has murdered it and put up 1980s level hedge fund performance, coupled with 2020s level memes.... $TDW is just one of the many things he has called.…

Kuppy

@hkuppy

1 month

I remember when I was loading up on $TDW at $11 and everyone thought I was insane (except @BobRobotti ). I told everyone I knew that $TDW was gonna go berserker when the cycle turned. Now here we are at $100, and the EV is still only at like half of replacement cost + 2024…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

Full note:

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

5 months

Hedge Fund Stories: Recruiting This is an impossible task with a litany of minefields. Ultimately, I think falling back on cultural fit, above a certain competence threshold, is the way to go. MBAs: I was the “resume sorter” for a few years at one fund. The “base” filter…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

5 months

I am "old" and this stuff fails to shock me. That's the problem with being in markets for long enough...you stop being shocked. At the podshop I was at, there was a discussion with the founder about 2008...the founder brought up a conversation he had with Sam Zell in 2007 or…

Bill Ackman

@BillAckman

5 months

The presidents of @Harvard , @MIT , and @Penn were all asked the following question under oath at today’s congressional hearing on antisemitism: Does calling for the genocide of Jews violate [your university’s] code of conduct or rules regarding bullying or harassment? The…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

7 months

@InvestorTobacco @agnostoxxx @TommyDeepwater The Chinese haven't been able to make a capesize as efficiently as the Koreans / Japanese / Singaporeans...and that is just a bath tub on the water to haul coal / grain / etc. What producer is going to underwrite a Chinese newbuild rig? Do you just assume that it is the same…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

8 months

$VAL $NE $RIG $BORR $TDW $SDRL $DO While many new to offshore will be asking about $500k rates at the Barclays conference next week, I plan on being the guy that asks about $750 in 2025 and $1 M in late 2026.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

11 months

$PGY Our recent work on $PGY (memo link below). We think this is an interesting situation for equity (stock and warrants) and credit (tons of ABS) investors. We can see scenarios where the stock gets back above $10 over time vs. ~$1.25 current price. This is a busted…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

5 months

Picture on the left was during my post pod shop garden leave. I may have blown an epic head start to the year- ~$100+ million of Q1 2015 PNL, only to be on the street by September…oof… Picture on the right is a guy that gets to workout two hours a day and sht posts about…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

10 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $TDW $DO $BORR $OIH $SLB $HAL $BKR Citi puts out 85 page note, raises $RIG from $6.50 to $9.50 and starts $VAL at $85 and $NE at $64. Sell side feels the need to care again and cover this space. They even use the phrase "super-cycle" in the lead bullet...

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 month

Listening to Einhorn talk about a European chemical remainco, that has sucked for years, is what Sohn used to be about. It is great to be back!

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

9 months

$TDW $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $BORR Seeing offshore mostly green today says if all. We could well have a full scarcity event in offshore coupled with declining shale productivity and some oil demand growth… or said different, day rates could exceed $1 million this cycle

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

4 months

Hedge Fund People You Meet: The “Angry Men of Credit” You can read below the constructive feedback from the very sharp credit maven below. I have met a lot of these people in my career. At times, in my worser moments, I have been an “angry man of credit.” You cover the same few…

Tokamak

@GrandTokamak

4 months

I engaged with this account in good faith many times over the past couple of years But I’ve come to realize that most of their ideas are low float names, and they seem to using smart-sounding fundamental analysis to generate a mini-squeeze and make money

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$RIG $VAL $NE $BORR $SDRL $DO $TDW Stock down. Big run into number and needs to base. Call very LT bullish. We are early days. RIG call notes - Norway down to 13 from 23 semis 2 years ago and more to leave. Given worse local economics will be hard to get them back - $PBR…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

BREAKING: TYPO IN $RIG FLEET STATUS REPORT ENDS OFFSHORE CYCLE $PBR TO SCRAP ALL FUTURE TENDERS CHINESE YARDS ANNOUCE SECRET PROGRAM TO DELIVER UP TO 350 NEW 12TH GENERATION RIGS IN THE NEXT TWELVE MONTHS OFFER 15 YEAR CONTRACTS AT $125K/DAY. STATE TO SOCIALIZE LOSSES

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

2 years

$FCX $VALE $RIO Jefferies did a not comparing mining valuations to 2016 lows. Street responded asking for comp to GFC… this is where we are…pricing GFC scenarios

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

8 months

$SDRL $RIG $NE $TDW $VAL $DO $BORR $SDRL CEO at Barc on newbuild: ”...everytime I try to speak to a shipyard, they hang up on me…this is a distraction and abstraction…no one knows what it costs and no one is going to build one…maybe $1 billion and 3-4 years to build one…we…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

6 months

Credit Hedge Funds are so much more urbane than equity funds. Credit guys have to be more thoughtful given the negative convexity and lower liquidity. Analysts will make pitches on ideas and the PM will look out the window, lost in thought, and say something like "I bet the…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

5 months

$TDW $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $BORR As smart people debate which offshore stock to ride… remember that sector beta > company alpha … when it comes to energy services… all of these things going to work.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

10 months

Offshore run has me feeling pumped for markets to open. Big 3 $VAL $RIG $NE getting big flows and $TDW screaming higher as well. Earnings start this week and $UNH will be huge for the wet blanket overhang of MLR fears in the big MCOs and VBC names $HUM $CI $CNC $CMAX $PRVA…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

8 months

Two decades from now it will be revealed that someone got a 2 year guarantee & deferred comp buyout from 5+ pod shops in a row, lost money at all of them and walked away with a $30+ mm 🌰

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

8 months

$TDW $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $SHLF $BORR $DO $XLE $OIH For those not involved in offshore or “late” to the party..we say late as we think this is still a 2-5x opportunity… $TDW memo: YAV Podcast: ValueHive part 1:…

Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Research Management on Offshore and...

Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to play it.Judd's initial piece on T...

www.youtube.com

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

10 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $TDW $BORR $SDRL $DO $LNG $NFE $GLNG $EE Some nice slides from GS on energy. Hits most of the energy bull thesis: 8+ years of energy famine have turned a corner and with India, Non-China Asia and other places seeing surging energy demand we march forward and…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

7 days

$TDW The math: Q1 EBITDA: $139 million Earned Dayrate: $19,563 Leading Edge: $30,641 Delta = $11,078 Ships: 217 Utilization: 81.5% Upside to Spot: $11,078 x 217 x 81.5% x 90 = $176 million "Open" EBITDA = $176 + 139 = $315 Annualized = $315 x 4 = $1.26 billion 2025…

Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

7 days

$TDW $30k leading edge rates. Once the below market contracts roll from Solstad this thing is going to mint FCF. Might see more than $25 per share by end of 2025….a rate that will be sustained for some time… they overpriced debt going to get refi’d at the call dates too.…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

11 months

Biden: I will refill the SPR OPEC Meeting: let’s go Brandon

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$VAL $RIG $NE $TDW $SDRL $DO $BORR $VAL We are not activists and this is not a real letter to the company...but one we could see written. We think they do the right thing in the end...since everyone else is. There is a LOT of anger in the conversations we have had with…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

Guy I worked with would build these absurdly complex models. Was looking at a shipping deal and told a different guy on my team to make a new one with all that matters. The model had 7 lines in total on a single sheet. The 7 line model guy remains of the smartest people I have…

Frederik Christopher Gieschen

@NeckarValue

1 year

Bill Miller on simplicity: “For every company, there are a few key investment variables. The rest of the stuff is noise.” “Are things getting better or are they getting worse?” If they’re getting better, then I want to understand what’s going on.’”

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

3 months

$XLE $XOP $OIH $RIG $VAL $NE $TDW $BORR $SDRL $HAL $SLB …worst…sector…ever… 😂🤣😂

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

11 months

Commodities and inflation: “In 1922, 100 years ago, the average American home cost the same ~4,400 barrels of oil…today the average American home costs ~4,400 barrels of oil…”

‎Value Hive Podcast: Thomas Bachrach: Natural Resource Partners (NRP), Coal Stocks, & LatAm Ideas...

‎Show Value Hive Podcast, Ep Thomas Bachrach: Natural Resource Partners (NRP), Coal Stocks, & LatAm Ideas - Jun 9, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

8 months

Several years ago I met a more senior guy at a fund we both used to work at for a drink to catch up. He was “post - beach” in so far as he was working for himself with the freedom to do as he chose. He is in the bucket of people you come across who is humble, brilliant,…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

8 months

SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA: MAJOR KOREAN SHIPYARDS PUT OUT JOINT STATEMENT PREEMPTIVELY REJECTING ANY AND ALL ORDERS FOR NEW OFFSHORE RIGS. “WE LOST BILLIONS ON THESE THINGS AND NOW, DRIVEN BY INVESTOR INTEREST FROM THE BARCLAYS AND PARETO CONFERENCES, OUR EMPLOYEES ARE BEING BOMBARDED…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

10 months

$RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $TDW $DO $BORR Haters: “It just feels like we missed offshore..after doubting it…” Lovers: “MS model assumes just 24 of $RIG 39 rigs are active in 2026 with an average day rate of $383k…street is insanely low if this cycle resembles past cycles and $NE…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

9 months

$RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO $BORR $TDW $OIH $XOP $XLE $SLB $HAL $BKR $XPRO $FTI $SUBCY $WFRD Nice chart from WoodMack showing exploration capex by type in 2023 dollars. Note that $TDW used to quote a stat that 60% of their work was Production related so this isn't "all" offshore…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

2 years

$RIG $BORR $VAL $DO $SDRL $NE $TDW $FTI I know the stocks have run…and the RSIs are 70-90 right now and we are due for a technical pullback…but these things are all discounting 1-3x cash flow on prior peak economics, which will be eclipsed in 18-24 months. Early innings…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

CRE is toast data point of the day... Landmark 150 N Michigan owned by Manulife. Being shopped at $110/sqft with 70% seller financing. 60% occupied and price is ~9% cap on in place rent. Multiple new buildings going up in West Loop. ~$70 mm price ask compares to $102 mm…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

8 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $TDW $DO $BORR Live shot of the ancient ‘09 vintage, low spec, pos asset that $RIG got a $350k a day rate on. We are so back…even the plankton and amebas are getting contracts at decent rates now.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

9 months

$TDW We ride with Bob...who added again...

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

2 months

$TDW Solid print, new buyback. Didn't bump guide. Leading edge dayrates march higher. 43.7% EBITDA margin vs. 30% prior peak in 2014...do you think they got costs out??? $1+ billion of EBITDA incoming by end of 2024 so ~3.7x... At $150 per share I have been promised strobe…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

7 months

The coming days / weeks will be incredibly volatile on the geopolitical side. Horrified and disgusted by the targeting of civilians and abduction (as well as rape and murder) of Israeli girls - a universal pretext for war in every culture across the globe. The response will…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

2 years

$BTU $ARCH #Coaltwitter Coal prices still inflated. SCOTUS ruling means higher terminal value.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

26 days

Nikhil one of the sharpest people I have ever worked with…Him and his brother run their firm together. Old school investment partnership model with a handful of high conviction positions. $ATD.TO they have been all over for years. Their quarterly letters are some of the…

Restructuring__

@Restructuring__

26 days

My favority Pitch of Sohn 2024: Couche-Tard by Nikhil Daftary (NK Capital) This pitch is simple to follow and presents a differentiated perspective. A true investing masterclass. Let's dive in -----> 1/n Big Pitcure Let's learn how a convenience store chain has outperformed…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

9 months

$TDW “Tidewater is great but are you aware of this small 6 boat OSV company that trades on the Oslo exchange and creates the fleet 6% cheaper on a per ship basis?”

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

6 months

BREAKING: HEDGE FUND ANALYSTS REJOICE AT NEAR TERM DEMISE OF $DISH. AN ESTIMATED 2.3 MM HOURS OF WORK HAS BEEN WASTED OVER THE LAST 15+ YEARS THAT STARTED WITH A PM SAYING, “I KNOW IT IS MESSY BUT ERGIN A SMART GUY…”

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@CorneliaLake

1 year

$RIG Barclays note

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

8 months

$VAL $NE $RIG $TDW $SDRL $BORR Barclays conference: $NE: Newbuild parity is $650k for 15 years $VAL: Newbuild parity is $900k for 10-15 years $FTI: Seeing increasing demand for longer duration and a focus on securing capacity "no one is building a new rig...maybe ever in…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

24 days

Had a quant once tell me that stock correlations don't go to 1.0 in a crisis but rather that everything trades to the cube root of its beta so it just feels that way...a 1.5 beta trades like 1.14 and a 2.0 beta trades like a 1.25...so long story short, don't be a quant. There is…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$RIG Equinor deal with $RIG today, and associated cooperation agreement, seems like a pretty definitive data point highlighting that producers must now "defend" their rig reservations or risk losing them to other basins. Balance of power has shifted from abundance to scarcity.…

Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$RIG $TDW $SDRL $DO $BORR $NE $VAL We have had a series of meetings over the last few weeks with brokers, industry participants and the CEO of $RIG. Below is a composite of our discussions: Industry Color: - Equinor realizing they screwed up and will probably do an open tender…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

9 months

$RIG $TDW $VAL $NE $SDRL $BORR $DO $RIG call FOMO among operators accelerating Higher for longer dynamic on rates Short rigs in multiple areas 5 years for a new build floater Norway market way better

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

2 months

There is an old Howard Marks memo where he is pitching distressed debt in the late 90s and tells allocators that he can do a 20% IRR and keeps getting rejected. The allocators all tell him that the private equity boyz all saying they can do 25% IRRs so 20% doesn’t sound…

Kuppy

@hkuppy

2 months

I’m amazed that there is even a hedge fund industry. The HF industry mostly exists to under-perform and then do victory laps about the low volatility of sucking... The HF industry exists to grift off of endowments/pensions in a quid pro quo scheme to launder money. The LPs…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

3 months

There is a guy (I assume he is still in the game) who has been arb for 35-40 years and put up decent numbers. He has never run more than $1 billion of AUM, but time and compounding have easily gotten him into the low to mid 9 figure range of net worth. He is a throwback to the…

Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

4 months

Hedge Funds: The "Dark Arts" of Merger Arb For ~7 years I was the "not arb" guy on a team of merger arb jedis. I had a front row seat to the $ABBV / Shire drama, $NXPI and many other sorted episodes of craziness. With $SAVE / $JBLU in the headlines, we hope everyone is taking…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

7 months

The 2.5 year old son of my former co-worker lost both of his parents in the festival attack. If you can spare a few shekels for the little one, it would be great. Children always pay the biggest price in these conflicts. Just horrific.

Support Almog Levy, an innocent victim of Hamas, organized by Orian English

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www.gofundme.com

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$TDW $RIG $VAL $BORR $NE $DO For those that missed, here is a recording of the event. Thank you to all who joined.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

6 months

5 years from now, someone will be reading the bullish $BORR call transcript and have absolutely zero awareness how ugly this day was for energy and offshore. More than a few people told me that I was being "performative" or "dramatic" in some of the podcasts I did when I would…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

@XavierHelgesen Fan of your work but this is a simplistic take. It is also a bit comical to see you wearing multiple pieces of oil derived equipment in your profile picture and make these comments. Oil use per capita in the US has fallen dramatically in the last 20 years, as has coal use.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

6 months

Pod Shop Lessons: Trade Setups, “Limbo” One of the things that stuck with me from my market / factor neutral experience was the amount of “setups” that you had to be aware of. Market neutral is a cruel master that takes years to get right - if you get it right at all, which I…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$BXP $DEA $CUZ $DEI $ESRT $HPP $JBGS $KRC $SLG $VNO Ground zero...office REITs...7.8x average leverage, with EBITDA declining + maturities. Double digit cap rates for the bold.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

SOURCES: TIGER GLOBAL BUNKERS DOWN IN "WAR ROOM" AFTER RIVAL ELLIOT SEES TRIPLE DIGIT UPSIDE IN A NON-TECH COMPANY. FIRM DEBATES ALLOCATING SOME RESOURCES TO "VALUE" NAMES IN FUTURE. INSIDER: "WE HAD NO IDEA THESE RETURNS WERE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF UNPROFITABLE TECH.." $GT

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

2 months

Thanks for all the kind words today on $TDW. We think they can sustain $25+ of FCF per share for at least 5 years during this cycle. We will be back on @AndrewRangeley YAV podcast in a few weeks to share a new idea with the community that we hope others find as compelling as…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$RIG $VAL $TDW $NE $SDRL $DO $BORR $OIH $SLB $HAL $BKR "Investor sentiment has become increasingly negative since mid-February due to macro concerns. The long cycle nature of offshore projects provides relative immunity to near-term macro risk. Transocean's backlog puts in on…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

4 months

Dan Loeb dealing with someone who puts the words "yes place in society still matters, where one went to school.." Note also the comment in the thread from Dan himself noting that he would have handled this better today and is a little bit red at the harshness of how he came…

Cundill Capital

@CundillCapital

3 years

Legendary email exchange between Dan Loeb and a prospective employee. The market doesn't care who you are or where you came from, you have to be ruthlessly competitive to succeed at this game, and if Dan Loeb asks for your 3 best ideas they better be good

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

4 months

Listened to Leon Cooperman tonight. Guy brought slides and was ready to talk everything from college campuses to his book of sub 10 P/E value stocks.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

7 days

$TDW $30k leading edge rates. Once the below market contracts roll from Solstad this thing is going to mint FCF. Might see more than $25 per share by end of 2025….a rate that will be sustained for some time… they overpriced debt going to get refi’d at the call dates too.…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$TDW $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO $BORR $TDW Call: "We are going to make a lot in 23 and more in 24+. We will NOT do new build, will only do M&A if it makes sense...and plan to give shareholders back all the money." TDW 100+

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

11 months

$TDW The cycle does not end with $TDW at $50...it ends with $TDW at $150+. There is no order book. We have never had a scenario where there is no new build in OSVs or offshore rigs. $RIG $SDRL $DO $NE $VAL $BORR

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

@BobEUnlimited They potentially blew up in the only way that is left...a wrong way rate bet with massive duration. The HTM portfolio of $91 billion has disclosed MTM losses of $15 billion at year end that are far higher today. If they can't fund through this, then these losses will be…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

6 days

$TDW Me: Man...I put out a memo, do some podcasts and am happy this thing keeps working..why are so many people angry today Pod Bros: We short 5.2 mm shares / 10% of the outstanding...and have ramped shorts this year...

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO $BORR $TDW $OIH Some nice slides from Clarkson's on offshore

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

2 months

Group trip to finca @hkuppy for “pinches” in celebration of $500k rates $RIG $VAL $NE $TDW

Kuppy

@hkuppy

2 months

$499k term and $549k option. Pinch me, it’s happening…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

10 days

$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $BORR $TDW $RIG call tomorrow. Quarter was meh with 93% revenue efficiency offset by continued cost control. Hearing a lot of new contracts in the que for the industry in the high 500s / low 600s so will be interesting to get market update.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

2 months

...

Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

2 months

@taylorswift13 for President! I just saw her at her concert in Singapore and realized that she can bring together Americans and people in most countries much better than either of the candidates, and that bringing people together is the most important thing. Watching this…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$RIG $TDW $NE $VAL $SDRL $BORR $DO 1/n When the last cycle cracked… I remember quite vividly when $NE printed the first sub $400 day rate…$330k for 3-4 yrs. It was fall 2014. At that moment I 4x my short.

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

1 year

$TDW $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO $BORR Really appreciate the warm reception to the podcast. For those seeking a deeper dive, below is a link to my $TDW note from late last year. Has a lot of the macro we touch on in the podcast with @marketplunger1

1670303747412777.pdf

drive.google.com

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

9 months

$PGY Beat and raise (second quarter in a row). FRLPC (fee revenue less production costs) is 3.3% and accelerating. Network volume beat. EBITDA guide bumped to $45 million for the year. Street numbers will increase for '23 / 24 / 25. We reiterate our call that (1) $PGY…

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

10 months

$RIG $VAL $NE $BORR $SDRL $TDW $DO Tender starting in late 25 or early 26 and they will take a minimum 6th gen…you think this market is tight now? We went from no visibility to securing contracts 3 years in advance. $1 Million dayrate gonna happen this cycle or what? Big…

𝙴𝚍

@MugsLuck

10 months

@TommyDeepwater $SHEL also looking for 6G semi-sub or drillship for Nigeria. Commencement sometime between Q3 2025 & Q2 2026 (Response due August 14th) just sayn', good to see 2026 thrown around lately

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Lake Cornelia Research Management

@CorneliaLake

2 months

$TDW - What changed today to generate a 14.5% move? One of the enduring questions for me has always been "what do these guys do different / see different / how are they different....and can I do some / a little / all of what they are doing..." By "these guys" I mean the people…

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