BoxLongs @BoxLongs Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

8 months

$geo Northland securities launches w Buy $14 PT

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

9 months

$geo guidance sandbagged. equity spring loaded.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$geo love this, founder buying

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$geo catalyst time line shifting fully to the budget process now that earnings is behind us. $geo will make $500m a year in ebitda come hell or high water. debt will get paid down. when will we get borrowing costs lower... that time is coming. then massive cap return program

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

8 months

$geo this is the top of the "lead funnel" for ATD and it is growing at a rapid rate. Up almost 20% Y/Y in Sept. and this data does not even capture all those that crossed with no contact. $geo ATD program should be in the millions.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND what happened to cause the market to tip. 5 *new* large contracts over 7 figs. this is not a fluke. this was a tipping point. its even more impressive in the context of the macro. rates are high, mortgage market frozen, yet, a break through quarter for bagging big deals.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

8 months

Got $geo ?

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

8 months

If New York is already buckling under the load and has run out of room, what will the situation be like a year from now? The open border policy started under Biden two years ago. That policy was not in place under Obama, and Gov Hochul is Democrat not Republican, so this is not

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$geo @ $14 = still *absurdly* cheap

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish ecommerce platform being valued at negative $363M. despite sitting on $800 in cash in rising rate environment to build the business. its like when the price of oil went negative.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

@DavidSacks PHD=playa hater degree

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

6 months

$RBLX most open ended platform oppy in software right now. Stratechery Interview with Baszucki very bullish.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish new ceo is in around $1 = fully aligned.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND +182% since this tweet. Wait until pent up mortgage demand returns in full force...

Joe Lonsdale

@JTLonsdale

1 year

We led @blendlabsinc seed / B rounds a decade ago. They went public at ~$5B, the mortgage market blew up + their spend was high; they're now valued under 1X SaaS revenue. But today, I’m as excited as ever about the business and technology platform

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

4 months

$GEO Bullish commentary on $CXW call confirms long thesis. Upward pressure on facility utilization rates, continued pressure on ICE, BOP, Federal+ State, strong need for growing populations. Increased need for border security given Geopolitical events. Great 2024 set up for $GEO

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$GEO is still only 6.5x ebitda. LMAO.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

6 months

@AlexBerenson u know ur bad when untuckit shirt looks better than what ur wearing. his fashion is unsustainable

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$geo the nations aging prison infrastructure needs billions in investment. just look at the state of FL, $6-12B needed in investment. $geo facilities are dramatically undervalued at current stock price.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$GEO valuation context, old chart of EV/ebitda post $DJT election win in 2016, went to > 15x ebitda. suggests 100%+ multiple expansion possible w/continued shift in sentiment on illegal immigration. $500M a nice round number to use on Ebitda.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

4 months

@CitronResearch $GEO 2024E debt paydown= $160-200M paves way to significant capital return. This event will accelerate w/ increased funding for border security. Any expansion of the ATD program will lead to much higher cash flows. Guidance derisked. Electronic Monitoring is a sleeping giant.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$GEO the list of catalysts emerging for this stock are too many to list. this refinancing is a major event for lowering the cost of capital and clearing the way for capital return. Dont forget that $geo is sitting on 10+ very strategic idle facilities that could be flipped on.

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

The GEO Group Announces Commencement of Refinancing Process cc ⁦ @CitronResearch ⁩

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND Data indicates that if industry projections are right, and if rates fall to low 6% range, half of all originations completed since early 2023 will be ripe for refinancing

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish cash burn < $100m in q4= PT $1.00-1.25 cash burn < $25m/qtr 2H 23 duration moves from 2 yrs to 4 yrs, use ev/sales= $1.75-2.25 looking at comps (~.5x) new S&M run rate allows them to get into easy comp zone, return to revs growth. 10 days to go. upside= +150-200%

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

9 months

$GEO ATD program shows 2nd consecutive period of sequential growth through Sept 9th, 2023. $GEO was $12 stock at peak ATD enrollment of 378K. stock worth $10-15 using PE, $20+ on replacement cost

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

6 months

$geo friendly reminder that geo went *ham* on 2016 election

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish what i am looking at tomorrow. this is an over simplification but I think a good framework on what to focus on to judge the chance for a near term rebound. in pictures.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$GEO this is why the equity has room to double again. 2009 WSJ article by Mike Milken. "It doesn't matter whether a company is big or small. Capital structure matters. It always has and always will."

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$geo 4 most important slides from yesterdays investor deck --> there is nothing in the guidance from any increases in DHS spending from new budget funding.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish might trade 1 billion shares this week

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish what was positive, 1) they beat ebitda guidance mid pt by +$5M,+guided q1 ebitda $5m above street at mid pt, 2) logistics revs up q/q, 2nd q in a row, 3) still sitting on $719m cash, $0 debt. 4) expect to begin guiding revs / gmv very soon

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$GEO equity should be at $15-20 today. operating environment rapidly improving for them. plenty of banks to work with and get financing done + regime change + huge pent up demand for secure services

CoreCivic Announces Upsizing and Pricing of $500 Million 8.25% Senior Notes Due 2029 | CoreCivic,...

The Investor Relations website contains information about CoreCivic, Inc.'s business for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts.

ir.corecivic.com

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish Vivian Liu is solid- 100% internally focused on improving the biz. thats the right thought process. not making excuses. taking the oppy to get the biz humming.

Vivian Liu - Wish CFO & COO - Linking the User & Merchants

Vivian Liu Chief Financial Officer & Chief Operating Officer.With enhanced marketplace capabilities and better user experience, we see greenshoots in these e...

www.youtube.com

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

4 months

$GEO upcoming (events) catalysts=

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 month

$geo updated ATD charts 1/2

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish back to point #1 on eps tmrw. $etsy just posted a slide that shows exactly this, the recapture of users who have not shopped in awhile. reactivating lapsed users could allow $wish to grow from current 24M MAU dramatically. huge oppy here! important KPI @WishShopping

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

@hkuppy LMAO

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish volume exploded in last 2 sessions 255M shares traded. place your bets before 2.23. previous 1 day trading volume record 335m shares. I think we break that record on friday feb 24th, $wish eps amc on thurs feb 23rd. epic set up for price discovery. in or out at negative EV?

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

8 months

$geo $200m a year in debt paydown should drive a 15% cagr in the equity as a baseline scenario. when that cash gets redirected for a massive buyback $geo stock will have escape velocity.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish just flipped the switch back to "ON" after a painful reset. they were addicted to facebook ads. things are turning a corner. comparisons will be clean in the 2H, disclosure on GMV etc will be ramped up.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

Pass GO, Collect $100. Hi haters!!!! The $GEO Group Prices Senior Notes Offering and New Term Loan

The GEO Group Prices Senior Notes Offering and New Term Loan | The GEO Group, Inc.

BOCA RATON, Fla. --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 4, 2024-- The GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) ("GEO" or the "Company") announced today that it has priced a private offering of $1.275 billion aggregate principal...

investors.geogroup.com

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish CSFB keeping the buy rating. $4.40 PT

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 years

Goodbye 2020. Wishing health and happiness to all.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND has always been a call option on the future, current mortgage market is trash, everyone knows that. it wont stay that way forever. the RPO # is very impressive given how bad the macro is, consumer traction next growth engine starting to fire. this RPO # far exceeds street

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND RPO shows traction with major customers, this layer cake going to build.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish OSINT = 🚀

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

@SilbergleitJr $wish plenty of cash+ untapped liquidity. balance sheet going grow in 2023 not shrink

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

this $GEO has been an absolutely quiet monster

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$geo cost of capital down, equity UP

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$GEO this is why the equity has room to double again. 2009 WSJ article by Mike Milken. "It doesn't matter whether a company is big or small. Capital structure matters. It always has and always will."

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$blnd bar getting hammered down- 2026E revs @ UBS now $251m, which is below the 2026E AD low end scenario of $260M (mid: $315M, normalized market: $365M), this is the set up u want. Last night $blnd reiterated the AD framework. Epic Q4 bookings +101%, RPO +189%, green shoots

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

4 months

$GEO blue skies ahead= $15-35

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND has an emerging software platform that could be worth billions. Surge in q4 RPO driving higher highs over next 12-24 months imo.

ModifiedDarvasBox🔲

@DarvasBoxGuru

3 months

@BoxLongs $BLND is now officially a textbook Darvas Box breakout due to the volume component showing up. Two more days to go

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish letter to employees re 150 person layoff... creating a "recession proof" company

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

The $GEO Group Announces Five-Year Contract to Provide Air Operations Support Services for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

The GEO Group Announces Five-Year Contract to Provide Air Operations Support Services for U.S....

BOCA RATON, Fla. --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 12, 2024-- The GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) (“GEO”) announced today that its wholly-owned subsidiary, GEO Transport, Inc. (“GTI”) has been awarded a five-year...

investors.geogroup.com

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$760,000 in premium spent. lets go $geo

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$GEO jan '25 $15 calls 💎

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

@CitronResearch $geo every dollar of debt paid off will be amplified by higher cash flow on lower interest expense x share repurchase. virtuous cycle. fair value 200% higher

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 month

$geo RR still bullish. using 6-10x ebitda= ~ $12-27 / share on 2024-2025E. -1-2 bucks, +14 bucks NTM.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

16 days

$LL so much happening in Lumber Liquidators. This story is very under followed. Will have more to say soon. Safe to say there are a myriad of interested acquirers and current management / board are a disaster and must go. $LL worth 2-3x under real management in short order

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND I agree with @beaniemaxi having followed the software sector for over 2 decades, rarely do you find platform plays trading at such a low valuation ($600M) where you can invest at better prices than the VC mafia that prints money and marks their own assets endlessly. (1/4)

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND AI Co-pilot

Request early access to Copilot | Blend

We’re building Copilot, a new AI-powered assistant that will be able to execute precise tasks and assist in giving timely answers to borrower questions.

blend.com

Beanie

@beaniemaxi

3 months

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

13 days

$LL spoke with informed source. A few interesting datapoints. 1. $AMZN rumored to have offered $120-130M USD for the VA distribution center and nearly 100 acre land parcel that is prime for datacenter development or for Fulfillment by Amazon location. Warehouse built with Amazon

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish flat rate shipping is a huge deal. going to drive higher GMV from existing 25M MAU. Higher order size= big driver of KPI upside in 2023. Getting rolled out in more Geo's. Only available in new $wish mobile app. its not complicated. new mgmt team is executing. @Buffering666

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

9 months

@alvaro6v $geo from $cxw call, multiply the replacement cost x 45k beds = massive # billions

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

24 days

$EVLV @BlueDuckCap

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

6 months

$GEO has rallied 48% since august with a negative estimate revision on the Q3 call, thats all multiple expansion. Remains insanely cheap and set up extremely well to grow materially if US govt gets its f act together. Fair value is $15-20. no idea what next 10% will be. BTFD

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$geo estimate cuts on the q4 push out are quite small given upside to profitability in q3.... '23E ebitda range NEW= $495-500M vs $490-520M in August, only a -1.5% cut at the mid-pt. Debt paydown $109m. How fast can we get budget dollars is the q, set up for 2024 remains bullish

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

6 months

$RBLX full note 1/4

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

6 months

$RBLX if wells fargo is “right” and $rblx delivers +400 bps of ebitda margin expansion annually from 2023->2027 the stock will be much higher than $49

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND this is a big win cc: @beaniemaxi

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

So much new flow coming. Stay tuned

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$egio if the short position tries to cover 300,000 shares will see fireworks $root style

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$geo the relevant passage from the Q3 call on future debt financing- the ESG overhang is lifting... *we have received interest from several new banks as well as institutional investors*

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$geo is paying too much to borrow as well- when the cost of debt comes down, and it will, the pendulum will swing, excess free cash flow will go to shareholders. the equity is spring loaded. if the orange man wins (not my thesis) u will get paid 50-100% in a day.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$geo fair value up another 100%

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

8 months

$geo friendly reminder that the replacement cost of geo's facilities is $20 / share even at unrealistic $100k new build cost (its much higher)

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

Got $geo ?

~~datahazard~~

@fentasyl

2 months

We can confidently expect over 4,000,000 to arrive during the capstone year of Joe Biden's first term in office. Not pictured: The maximum reasonable projection of over 6,000,000 arriving in 2024.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$RBLX founder is playing the long game

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$RBLX if they get to 1B DAUs, the platform will be worth 10-15x what it is today. $250-400 / Share. This one has a real long term path to value creation. keep adding.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

Got $GEO ???

ModifiedDarvasBox🔲

@DarvasBoxGuru

3 months

$GEO with a Textbook Darvas Box breakout this week. If you followed the trend you've been making $$ #ImmigrationCrisis Shout-out to my compadre @BoxLongs . He's a Value-oriented HF PM and has been on this one for months. Obvi once you go Box the $$ follows LOL🤑📈

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

6 months

$geo the more research u do, the more obvious it becomes how broken DHS ICE are. $geo ATD program contract needs to be dramatically expanded.

Florida grand jury calls on state to track immigration status of arrestees in response to migrant...

A Florida grand jury is calling for legislation to track the immigration status of those arrested in the state, after a lengthy report documenting the effects of the migrant crisis.

www.foxnews.com

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$blnd long a slug at good prices and not selling. keeping the bench warm for all the hedge funds and mutual funds who will come back when they win $jpm and 30 year mortgage is back at 5% and $blnd on way to $500M in revs.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$geo. Eating the elephant one bite at a time

Stefan Lingmerth

@LingmerthStefan

2 months

$GEO mentioned positively by S&P rating agency. One would think they can lower debt cost by 150-200bps and extend out the maturities a few years

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

@hkuppy save the meat, can be served on BA jets as last meal (tastes like chicken)

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$EGIO on current valuation framework, even low end of historical multiple range is in the $50-80 range. Also Layer0 asset, paid $55m at the time of acquisition. fast growing saas asset not reflected in current price. that asset alone worth $50-100M

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$geo is paying too much to borrow as well- when the cost of debt comes down, and it will, the pendulum will swing, excess free cash flow will go to shareholders. the equity is spring loaded. if the orange man wins (not my thesis) u will get paid 50-100% in a day.

Citron Research

@CitronResearch

7 months

$geo CBP report scary This is how the stock gets to 25 Gov embracing technology and smart-link is a natural extension of one app. Homeland security issue Must track or detain Either way $geo wins

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$GEO a look at billing rates from previous contract

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

The $GEO Group Announces Five-Year Contract to Provide Air Operations Support Services for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$geo @BlueDuckCap

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 month

@AndrewDudum odds of him hitting his $hims numbers ? not good

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 month

$chgg shorts win the academic debate for another hour, but stock squeezes higher tmrw + higher margin guide, cost costs, and green shoots KPIs in AI Pivot. increased risk of takeout

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

@proogs1 @DeepBlueEquity I ran a screen yesterday. Its def rare in growth / ecommerce / software. Esp w no debt. +Especially for a biz that has genuine operations +huge user base. A lot of these are uninvestible, lack liquidity, etc. $wish

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish nothing better than excellent commentary hiding in plain sight. nobody is paying attention, massive positive structural changes to the platform. this video has only 544 views on youtube. merchant summit was a gold mine for those following the story.

2022 Wish Merchant Summit

View presentations from key leaders at the 2022 Wish Merchant Summit.

www.youtube.com

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

9 months

$geo idle facilities should be utilized. marked at $25k a bed. replacement cost at least 4x. huge upside here.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 month

$geo steady performance. ATD / EM biz continues to face tough comps. need that high margin rev engine firing. will send out some updated charts later today on ATD. Full year guide for revs / ebitda unchanged.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

8 months

$geo spent $415 million in cash to acquire BI in 2011. In the last 12 months BI has generated $527 million in revenue, and $266 million in operating profit. This segment is the future of the company. $geo equity is a call option on this biz. Worth 5-10x.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$geo D Ray James facility under review for new transfers (in state georgia) ...

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

@hkuppy palm beach smash burger $42, no recession here

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$geo the deleveraging x redeployment of excess free cash flow into significant buyback program remains best use of capital - i think the market currently underestimating the impact this will have on the stock price. assuming that is the course of action mgmt takes

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish love that little simmer +53% ytd, short interest rising... havent event started backing up the truck, one more good mau print... face ripper commeth

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish MAU stabilization (growth) is step 1. the estimates are down almost 90% since ipo. even using extremely low frameworks on ev/sales 0.30-1.00x on a stable revenue # ~ $600M could yield prices in the $1.50-2 range. Equity is currently a cheap call option on liquidity.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

2 months

$GPRO stock all time record low. $100 into QQQ @ $gpro ipo worth $500 today. $100 into $gpro ipo is worth < $5. why must we indulge Woodman's vanity. Nick, do the right thing. Sell $gpro. Or hire a real CEO, comp him on stock performance, nothing else, Scrap the class-B its time

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

12 days

I made $100,000 in $BLND, i owe u a drink on that one. was there but talking to u help me size it up a bit.

Beanie

@beaniemaxi

12 days

@BoxLongs $BLND was like $0.50 and $HOOD like $10. Some epic calls if I do say so myself.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

6 months

$estc after market at $92 still looks cheap relative to a lot of the high growth saas names ~ 5x cy 24 revs ~ 1.5b

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 year

$wish MAUs are inflecting, going to be obvious by Q1

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

8 months

$msft impressive beat on Azure at +29%, +28% CC vs +26% street.... now they will get asked 9x on the call what the "glide path" is (decay rate going fwd, or rate of acceleration)... if they guide for further acceleration stock should close much higher... i have my doubts they

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 month

$BLND $150M capital infusion.

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

1 month

got $BLND ?

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

7 months

$GEO the Oct 2023 data, FY 2024 govt year starting off with yet another chart breakout on border encounters...

BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

8 months

$geo this is the top of the "lead funnel" for ATD and it is growing at a rapid rate. Up almost 20% Y/Y in Sept. and this data does not even capture all those that crossed with no contact. $geo ATD program should be in the millions.

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BoxLongs

@BoxLongs

3 months

$BLND Q4 RPO of $95M vs $65M in UBS model, signed 5 new deals > $1M in Q4, grew RPO $35M q/q

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