My article in
@thenews_intl
"Our tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 12 per cent, one of the lowest primarily because of high tax rates and inapt policies that undermine businesses. We can only increase tax collection by promoting business, reducing tax rates, and making the tax…
United States, world's richest economy is governed by a President with 16 member cabinet, but Pakistan, one of poorest country wth no forex reserves & budget deficit of Rs. 4 tiln is ruled by PM wth cabinet of 77 ministers. Why is it surprising that land of pure is bankrupt?
Highly controversial decision to convict
@ImranKhanPTI
in haste, without following a due process.
Will further increase his popularity, escalate polarisation of politics & society, enhance uncertainty and deepen economic crisis.
2)So long pol parties produce cult leadership-othr party leaders bcome smply followers of topman, things wl not improve. "Wisdom stems from personal accountability. We all make mistakes; own them.. learn from them. Don't throw away the lesson by blaming others"Steve Maraboli 2/2
7. Finally, transparency is key to improving governance & outcomes. All LCs must have websites that should contain budgets, utilisation of funds & outcomes, periodic financial statements, and annual & progress reports & a robust complaint mgmnt system 7/7
2) Governance entails 1. Leadership wth clarity of vision & commitment to ethics; 2. Team selection on merit using objective criteria; 3. Transparency in operations & communications & 4. Accountability for outcomes. Question 2: how to get this. Answer: Voters improve choice 2/2
A key reason for Pakistan's bankruptcy - more than financial corruption - is intellectual dishonesty. Besides massive vested interest in our society, a large section of the elite comprises ppl who are not involved in wrong doing, but remain silent observers to everyday crime
👇
2) This approach was well summarised by Einstein in this quote "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." 2/2
Pakistan's deep economic & political crises (described as polycrisis - term from
#WEF2023
discussions) have resulted due to poor listening skills of decision makers. Speaking too much & not listening to understand anatomy of crises. What, how & who requires gr8 listening skills
It is a terrible and dangerous arrogance to believe that you alone are right: have a magical eye which sees the truth: and that others cannot be right if they disagree." 3/4
The issue: 🇵🇰 has Parliamentary system- but only in name- Courts, military, party leaders largely in control - leads to chaos. MPs make laws, only on direction of partly leaders, but never perform their essential fiduciary duty of holding executive & others accountable. 6/7
Why has 🇵🇰 become almost a failed state today?
One blunder all govts & leaders have committed since independence. Complete Neglect of its People.
There is only way to its successful transformation into a viable state. It's All About Investment & Development of its People
Country’s leading online tax filing portal Befiler has raised $1.5 million in seed funding from international & local investors.
Befiler’s app has over 1 Mln downloads on GooglePlayStore & over 460k users wth a Google app rating of 4.5-star out of 5.
Pakistan's fundamental problems:
Lack of vision.
Lack of ambition.
Lack of trust.
Lack of collaboration.
Lack of innovation
Lack of good governance - absence of meritocracy, transparency & accountability for outcomes.
👇
Below depicts distortions in federal & provincial budgets
Fed budget shows provincial surpluses Rs. 650 biln.
All provinces show deficits. Aggregate deficits of Provs Rs. 441.5 biln.
Reflects on quality of budgeting.
Seems no review or oversight by Parliament/ Assemblies
2) No country progressed wthout capital formation. Capitl mrkt has key role in raising capital, desprtly needed in 🇵🇰. Fiscl policies donot promote corprate business- rathr anti formal sectr. Money made in informal sectr unproductive-trend aggravated by excess tax
#budget22
n/2
3/ While everyone has the right to be stupid, it seems some of our lordships are abusing the privilege.
May Allah have mercy upon this Godforsaken nation & reduce the quantum of infinite madness bestowed on it.
3/3
My article in the news
Country needs leaders of the 21st century who can look beyond the familiar faces and actively seek out individuals who possess the courage to restructure and reimagine, the humility to learn from diverse perspectives, the intellectual agility to navigate…
I am delighted learn that my father, Syed Qaim Ali Shah, is amongst the recipients of Nishan'e Imtiaz.
He is the only Parliamentarian alive who was part of the committee, which drafted 1973 constitution, besides being its signatory. He is the longest serving Parliamentarian -…
My article on FY 24 Budget.
Hugely expansionary with total fedrl govt expenditure of Rs14.4 triln, 50% more than Fy 23 budget.
Its reviw leaves the reader dumbfounded, as it does not give any impression the country in distress /unable to its debts
⬇️
5) "In its simplest terms, democracy is rule by the people- not rule by a prime minister, not rule by prime minister & his cabinet, not rule by members of Parliament belonging to govt party, or even by all members of Parliament, but rule by the people." An extract frm paper 5/5
6. Unless political leaders start thinking & questioning their past approaches & strategies, do internal self introspection rising beyond indulging only in criticism of the opponents (we are always right, they are always wrong) conditions will continue to get worse. 6/6
1/ Story of 🇵🇰 bank's stellar performance. 🧵
Bank's are making exceptional profits, thanks to genius IMF advice enforced by independent SBP wrt monetary policy to control inflation. With policy rate at 22%, banks are mainly engaged in risk-free lending to GoP at 23%, are
⬇️
2) This water cud hv bn easily pumped into nearby irrigation canals, as water flow in such canals curtailed during rains, cud easily take surplus rainwater. Unfortunately, despite repeated requests/ advice to officials, no action. Cities & Villages cud hv been saved 2/2
3) Why govts not delivering basic services? Why institutions are dysfunctional? Why Pak🇵🇰 has become a leading begging nation? Primary reason: very few ppl raise. Our Parliament is ineffective. Executive controls rather than being accountable to Parliament 3/
6) Pakn, & esply Sindh (bcause Sindh is drain of rest of the country- receives surplus/flood water frm all provinces the dont need) is one of most disaster prone regions in the world. Yet, no planning done to address this risk. In past, govts responded promptly & effectively n/5
The State-Owned Enterprises (Governance and Operations) Act was passed by Parliament on Jan 31 this year, & draft policy on SOEs has also been issued by FinanceDivision. However, the implementation of this law and policy will be a big challenge based on experience of poor…
Story of value destruction
Below depicts venture capital funding to
#startups
in 2022 & 2023 in top 10 countries.
Pakistan has zero local venture capital funds. Govts spent spent over Rs. 25 triln in 2023, but nothing spent to create VC/PEs to promote
#startup
ecosystem.
6) Disasters cause huge devastation & unfortunately currnt is one of biggest, at time when country in deep economic crisis. Every crisis & disaster inherently creates huge opportunity of learning/making necessary corrections. Hope we don't waste it, like all past crises 6/6
Reasons for low productivity in 🇵🇰
A major reason that has promoted anti-innovation & status quo culture in Pakistan, both in public & private sector, is excessive reliance on experience & seniority, which are considered critical for appointments on all key positions
👇
2. 10 Key messages from this space
i) State of Pakn's
#CorpGovernance
remains ineffective & requires major improvements.
ii). Good CorpGovernance is essential to enhance trust of investors in corpte entities for mobilising investment in the form of equity & debt capital
👇
Hasty approval of ECNEC just after one day of CDWP approval of Rs. 1 triln energy project not part of IGCEP to be financed by $ 2.9 biln Chinese supplier credit loan.
How many members must have done proper study & analysis in a day?
Is there proper feasibility?
Why outside of
Delighted that my father Syed Qaim Ali Shah was given today Nishan'e Imtiaz, Pakistan’s highest award.
Syed Qaim Ali Shah is the only surviving Parliamentarian who was amongst the framers of 1973 Constitution, as a member of the Constituent Assembly elected of 1970, and as a…
2) My guess: roughly 60% of houses in cities, towns, villages destroyed. Assuming 400k houses in the district
#Khairpur
, over 50% (200k) destroyed, hardly 1000 tents (not even 1%) distributed. Hardly 5% of affected population may have received plastic sheets. n/2
2) Regret to express deep disappointment on the way this disaster has been mismanaged by govts- its impact compounded due to negligence, while
@PTI
more concerned on long marches -least concerned about plight of
#flood
affected ppl of
#Sindh
1/ Here is my 🧵 on FBR's proposed restructuring, an essential reform whch shud be done based on review of Pakn's own experience & global practices.
I wud suggest a 2 tier board structure similar to governance system in Germany
@anwaar_kakar
@1sakhtar
⬇️
3) Once currnt crisis abates,
#Sindh
most vulnerable Province to
#ClimateEmergency
must initiate the process to design & build a comprehensive drainage system, considering huge exposure to floods caused by melting of glaciers & unusually heavy rains- both seem inevitable 3/3
3) Must recognise, Pakn is poorer bcause we hv not invested in improving/incentivising our businesses to enhance productivity & innovation-instead invested on expansion of govts, too many ministers/depts/SOEs/redundant gov agencies promoting incompetence & ignorance 3/3
As I analyse the budget & subsequent press conference of FM in more detail, it is becoming more clearer that budget 24 is hugely expansionary, partly misleading (as most budgets are in this country), focused on next elections & completely unsustainable from IMF perspective.
⬇️
1/ Major issues that undermine Pak's economy:
1. Pathetic state of small & medium enterprises(SMEs). The country’s saving rate is low. A lot of cash out of banks, as it is cash economy due to messed up tax system. Bulk of bank financing goes to finance govt's unproductive
⬇️
Major problem in our important political discourse/decision making is the cloak of secrecy, reflected in process of selection of
#CareTakerPM
& ongoing process of selection of
#caretakerCMs
in Sindh & Balochistan.
Why can't the proposed names be disclosed, together rationale?
1/ Why is Pakistan's Parliamentary system not working? 🧵
Ineffective parliamentary system is one of the most serious problems facing the country is hindering its progress.
The route cause of this issue lies in the composition of parliament & provincial assemblies
👇
Thank you,
@ABMPildat
for yr comment. Pl see my response below:
We have a consensus on issues & questions. I don't think we or anyone else has all the answers. Idea of these seminars is to initiate an open national debate on serious issues & reasons why
👇
1/ My father, Syed Qaim Ali Shah, the only person alive today from those who framed 1973 constitution.
As a signatory & member of committee that drafted the constitution, he was invited to participate, but ironically not given the opportunity to speak & narrate the story
⬇️
2) Country's economic & social progress/outcomes hv continued to lag behind-but opinions, assumptions & ppl remained unchanged. Unless political leaders change their approach- move up in the triangle to become "Critical thinkers & Learners", dont expect any positive change 2/2
7)🇵🇰 too slow in adapting realities of new world. Culture of complacency & statusquo. Both exports/import substitution possible through productivity/corporates/entrepreneurship/robust captl markt. Serious Rethink policies. ReduceGov/ReduceTaxRates, ReduceRegulations 7/7
My article in news on pathetic state of public financial management (PFM), ke component of good governance.
"In conclusion, Pakistan’s ongoing struggle to overhaul its Public Financial Management has remained superficial, largely in the hands of expensive consultancies with…
Imposing excessive tax on corporates that are earning high profits is not taxing the rich- it is taxing productivity & growth to fund most unproductive entities, Fed & prov govts- spend nearly 22% of GDP- largely unproductive
@MiftahIsmail
@ThePBC_Official
2) Instead of making broad statements & claims,
@SECPakistan
shud list specific initiatives together with their results/outcomes. Too many generalised statements & self praise will not take us anywhere
@MIshaqDar50
2/2
8) Consequences are before us.
There is serious need to enhance objectivity & truthfulness in our discourse, develop basic traits of integrity & openness, on which to build a better future through collaboration and n/8
2) Pakn just producing 660MW frm Thar (2% of reqs) still was cheapest (NTDC July merit order). Simple economics-why can't we scale it 10x? Get cheapest hydrocarbon. Reason of our bankruptcy- reliance on imported hydrocarbons. Energy security is key to economic sustainability n/2
*Trust Befiler, Pakistan's largest digital platform, to help you file your tax return by Sept 30*
As the tax deadline of September 30th fast approaches, I would like to emphasize the significance of timely tax filing. The benefits of being tax-compliant are immense, from…
🧵Pakistan is in grave financial crisis because of continuous poor governance & mismanagement over decades, not just by dictators but also by elected leaders. Whether it's parties in PDM or
@PTI
, the trajectory of downward drift has remained unchanged,
👇
What is Entrepreneurship:
1) an economic activity
Involves designing, launching & running new business enterprises to earn profit, by ensuring best possible use of resources.
2. Creativity and innovation: involves discovering new ideas and implementing it in business. 1/4
11) Unfortunately, Pakn's politics remains in 1990s, game of point scoring/allegations against opponents, "we ar always right & they ar always wrong", without any introspection to recognize what has gone seriously wrong wth this country & how to make necessary corrections. 11/11
My artitle in today's
@thenews_intl
Current
#IMF
progrm, even if revived, will not restore confidence. High time 🇵🇰 and its key lenders (IMF, World Bank & ADB): think - how to get out of perennial cycle IMF every 3 years?
A viable roadmap
A major reason our society remains backwards is excessive reliance on beliefs/faith and complete denial of science.
Too many people believe in luck; rely on help from Allah utterly disregarding the fact that Allah has bestowed them with the capacity to think.
“Shallow men…
2. Given political support & commitment, has huge potential not only to convert
#Khairpur
into a smart city but also set an example for other Municipal Entities in
#Sindh
to follow. Technology is a huge enabler - can transform our governance & service delivery for citizens 2/2
9. Conclusion
While fully supporting advocacy work of IFAC/Accountancy profn for adoption of standards to improve
#Governance
&
#PFM
, such efforts ar unlikely to achieve significant success, unless major effort is made to create demand for good governance amongst voters 9/10
Good to see below news that
#CaretakerCM
wants to strengthen local councils (LCs). Six essential steps are required to improve LCs' performance & outcomes for the people.
1) Most critical weakness is very poor quality of people within LCs & those posted through LG board/dept.…
4) It was this success wth nonviolent protests in South Africa tht made Gandhi instantly top freedom leader when he returned to India in 1915.
Gandhi was the real founder of nonviolence protests/Satyagraha & used it as gr8 weapon against Brits for Indian Independence 4/4
Breaking the cycle of IMF progrms 🧵
1/ 🇵🇰's history of chronic economic problems & bal of payments crisis goes back to 1958. Despite recurring IMF progrms, fiscal and external account deficits hv gone from bad to worse due to flawed economic policies & excessive bureaucracy
👇
1/ Finally, a correct order from
@SECPakistan
on Security Papers Ltd, declaring it as Public Sector Company. For nearly 4 years, board & management violated PSC Rules, and they continue non-compliance of SOE Act.
Hope
@StateBank_Pak
takes notice of its nominee directors and
⬇️
3) Legislators role is not just passage of laws, but more impt- holding executive (govts) accountable fr enforcement & outcomes. Not just sanction budget, but ensuring budget results in outcomes for ppl. Unfortunately, this aspect of legislators has completely collapsed n/3
2) Administration- starting wth Prov Govt- public health & local govt, Provnl Disaster Mgment Authority (PDMA), divisional & district admins wre ill prepared for such disaster- so no surprise they hv done very little to alleviate damage & suffering caused to affected people. n/2
1/ My 🧵 on most poorly conducted AGM of SPL.
As repoted by
@dawn_com
meeting was abruptly halted, refusing more questions from shareholders. Was on Zoom, had raised my hand for Q, but not allowed.
⬇️
@StateBank_Pak
@SECPakistan
@pakstockexgltd
None of the manifestos contain any plan to resolve serious challenges faced by the country.
"If you wish to be a success in the world, promise everything, deliver nothing."
Refers to cynical positions taken by successful politicians who tell voters what they want to hear:…
14) Unless curnt system/style of governance is restructured-from ad-hocism to merit & performance based, establishing a mechanism of accountability for outcomes, situation will continue to deteriorate. Hope we learn frm humongous suffering of crrnt disaster & mend our ways 14/14
1/ My comments & recommendations in today's webinar power utilities:
Biggest problem in running utilities in public sector are:
1) those charged with governance of these entities have no stakes in the company;
2) they effectively serve at the pleasure of the power division;
⬇️
3. As George Bernard Shaw said “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”
We need more crazy & unreasonable men. 3/3
3) So, billion dollar question: how do you change this? How will the Parliament & Prov Assemblies start working for 95%, and not just for 5% or 1% as per
@MiftahIsmail
? 3/3
2) As members of
#IFAC
,
@icapofficial
& Chartered Management Institute-Pakistan are members of IFAC- would urge both to collaborate with other agencies, including
#UNDP
& regulators
@SECPakistan
to work out a collaborative agenda for
#Pakistan
/2
5. of structural reforms, in areas of governance & public financial management to drastically improve service delivery, reduce cost of doing business, and improve human capital - the most important asset of the country. It is an exercise of critical thinking & introspection
5/5
SBP has put Computer servers, Network & Teleco equipmnt on restricted list. Means Govt wants to discourage use of Technology. Massive step backward, anti digitalisation- pushes us in StoneAge. Surprising step against SBP & Govt policy of promoting use of tech
@MiftahIsmail
#Sindhfloods
8) Biggest problem remains, lack of decision making, lack of equipment, poor coordination in draining water to rescue large portion of population still submerged. Drainage division of irrigation dept of
#Sindh
remains most neglected & underfunded.
2) You have to appreciate that despite political turbulence since inception, state of Pakistan was far better in terms of growth, overall GDP, standard of living & infrastructure in the region compared to India & Bangladesh until 1990. India started to pick up after this date &
1/ Not surprising, as governance of the city is a complete mess.
The city is divided bet KMC, 26 Towns, several union committees & 6 Cantonments- administered by Pakistan Army covering 40% of the area.
⬇️
Picturesque view of Mithi, desert city of Sindh on Diwali - the festival of lights.
It symbolises the spiritual "victory of light over darkness, good over evil, and knowledge over ignorance."
Happy Diwali
2) Our society is full of corruption/scams- ppl will scandalise distribution. As they say "Do what you feel in yr heart to be right- for you'll be criticised anyway. You'll be damned if you do, & damned if you don't."Main issue in this disaster: indecisiveness/slow response 2/2
Is age reversal possible?
Can the fountain of youth come in the form of a pill?
“This new discovery offers the potential to reverse aging with a single pill, with applications ranging from improving eyesight to effectively treating numerous age-related diseases.” David…
10) Now ovr a month, dirty water still standing in towns, villages & agri-fields.
Most ppl, still not received tents/rations etc.
Minimum govt shud do- evacuate water so ppl return to some normalcy. Believe- water can be evacuated, given the will & coordinated approach 10/10
1) My article today'
@thenews_intl
in continuation of 3 articles in which I had discussed Pakn’s critical need for debt restructuring & transformational reforms (described ‘creative destruction’) to reconstruct the country’s institutions of governance
⬇️
Best tweet of 2022: Brilliant idea of improving oneself: aim for highest thinking style: "learner".
Gr8 lesson for people of Pakistan: if the country has to progress
Get out of "cult" and "politician" style of thinking.
Aim to be Learner / Critical Thinker
As we close 2022, a year replete with severe hardships for most Pakistanis - devastating floods in
#Sindh
& Balochistan, steep surge in inflation, economic slow down & uncertainty, I wish 2023 to be a year of hope, recovery & reconstruction, esply for ppl below poverty line
1/ IMF Staff report on Pakn of Jan 19 highlights economic stabilisation, but raises 6 KEY Risks to Economy.
It states "despite progress, outlook is still challenging and downside risks remain exceptionally high."
🧵 summarises 6 Key risks to🇵🇰's economy
⬇️
#Sindhfloods
4) What are the learnings from current disaster so far?
We learn from experience, that we learn nothing from experience- not even from disasters.
Business as usual 😌 Status quo- permanent features of society- fate of🇵🇰 in general &
#Sindh
in particular
4) Only those microfin companies, who take money from public or international institutions & aim to achieve more credibility may seek licence on voluntary basis if they want to enhance credibility. Shud not be a mandatory requirement for all micro finance companies. 4/4
1/ Composing the Boards of the Future 🧵
Biggest weakness in governance of state owned enterprises (SOEs) & listed companies remains poor composition of boards.
New SOE Act now requires majority of the board to be independent. Question is how do you select such directors?
⬇️
1/ EOGM of Security Papers adjourned by Chairman without listening to shareholders on the ground tht
@SECPakistan
had declared it as a public sector company & state owned enterprise. Accordingly both PSC & SOE Act are applicable, a stand that myself & many other members
⬇️
11) There is no system of evaluation of DC's performance, as they are appointed/transferred on preferences/recommendatiins/whims of influential people or CM's discretion on most subjective basis, without any criteria. n/11
2) Pakn wth under $ 9.5bn reserves, much higher debt & b&p imbalances- far more vulnerable-must increase imported fuels prices, provide targeted subsidies, cut govt expenditure & cut unfair super tax on businesses. Pak is poor bcause of poor businesses
@MiftahIsmail
2/2
Fed & prov govts shud set aside Rs.1 triln out of their budgeted developmnt progms of 2.2 triln, which together wth support from international community of $ 5bln, or aggregte amt Rs2.2 trln shud cover relief & rehab cost of flood affectees & infrastructure reconstruction 3/3
In Parl system, Parliament shud be supreme, & PM/ Cabinet shud be answerable to Parliament / MPs- Army Chief shud not even be under discussion, bureaucracy shud function under executive. Reason this system is not working is simple. Our Parliament is not functioning. 7/7
One of the biggest disasters taught to us by colonial masters & deeply ingrained in our legal system & culture is blindly following the convention.
Do what we hv been doing for last 50 yrs, do not think new or different, don't challenge the norms, don't tolerate new ideas.
👇