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Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞 Profile
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞

@Aligarciaherrer

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Geoeconomics of Asia and how it relates to the rest of the world, especially Europe. NATIXIS,BRUEGEL,HKUST. @aligarciaherrero @econtwitter .net

Hong Kong
Joined April 2010
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
This is a thread on #China 's dominant position on key components for new technologies, in particular #EVs . Check estimates by 2025 of @lithium refinery. China comes first by far, well above its mining capacity (1/4) via @business
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
My reading is that #China not really banning exports of solar panel critical materials yet but creating export licensing requirements. Thus, China can use the world's dependence on solar panels as the US does for semiconductors. #EU should watch out.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
How can Hong Kong not been important of it hosts 70% of Mainland companies' IPOs overseas and 60% of their USD bond issuance?. Hong Kong holds the key of the Mainland's access to overseas financing and investment @Bruegel_org
@Bruegel_org
Bruegel
5 years
Those claiming Hong Kong is no longer important to China don't show the full story. We need to look beyond GDP and consider China's soft spot: access to foreign capital with a relatively closed capital account - writes @Aligarciaherrer >>
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
The reality is that the #Chinese government will not allow the #Hongkong government to shut its in borders as other foreign countries would immediately follow suit with huge economic and reputational losses for the Mainland @SolomonYue
@SolomonYue
Solomon Yue
4 years
So mainlanders' feelings are more important than🇭🇰ers' lives?
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
#WTO has just published a report with global projections. It is more than scary. Even #China will end #2020 with a big recession (-4%) in the best scenario (V shape)! 🙇‍♀️😭. If you don't want to spoil your Easter, dont even look at the L shape😱
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
I have a question for @TheEconomist : Why do you think #Spain 's history is more tragic than that most European countries, including your #UK ?. Spain had a civil war but you had your own bit and many more conflicts with #France than we did. Spain did not enter WWI or WWII.
@TheEconomist
The Economist
4 years
Why has Spain’s history been so tragic? Most historians highlight a weak state, difficult geography and missed political opportunities
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
@DerekJGrossman You should. According to our analysis, #Pakistan is in the weakest position in terms of financing needs, after #SriLanka
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
#China not a market economy status not only according to #EU but even the #WTO . China has lost the dispute.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
#Russia : deposit runs very likely. Rouble will tank
@FilonenkoOles
Oles Filonenko 🤷🏼‍♂️
2 years
В Москве и других городах России перед банкоматами собираются огромные очереди. Фото сделано в 5 часов утра.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
Shortsighted view of #HongKong . It is #China ’s most important offshore platform for bond issuance as well as IPOs for Chinese companies. Furthermore, a very large share of Chinese outward FDI goes through Hong Kong. GDP size is not all! @thenewyorktimes
@nytopinion
New York Times Opinion
5 years
In 1997, Hong Kong’s economy was one-fifth the size of China’s. By 2018, it was barely one-thirtieth the size of China’s. The mainland doesn't need Hong Kong the way it once did.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
#China #April #data scary 😱 Retail sales down 11.1% YoY. Car sales - 30% YoY. FAI around 1.8% YoY, compared to 6.6% in March and 12.2% in January and February. Property investment -10%. Infra only 3% and manufacturing investment half of what it was in March (1/2)
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
#Lithium demand to explode
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
I cannot believe how fast the world is changing: #China holding the first summit with Central Asia without #Russia . #Putin should start thinking about the unintended consequences of his limitless partnership with China while embarking in a long war .
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
Most worrisome news I read today: #Wang #Huning to design #Taiwan strategy for #China . Fasten your seatbelts.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
7 months
What is really ballooning is Indian imports of Chinese goods, leading to a USD 100 billion deficit in 2022 (from USD 67 billion in 2021). In other words, shipping containers are piling up full in one direction (China India) while they need to wait empty in the other @vtchakarova
@vtchakarova
Velina Tchakarova
7 months
Trade between Russia and China is booming so much that shipping containers are ‘piling up’. #DragonBear #geoeconomics #Velsig
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
Some thoughts for the @FT on Chinese consumers' expected splash of money. The reason why I would not be so positive, especially as regards overseas consumption are as follows (1/3)
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
The key issue about China’s piling up debt is not so much the stock (which is large but similar to US or Europe) but how short term it is. HALF of China’s bond issuance is less than a year. Loans also very short-term and account receivables massive
@BaldingsWorld
Blue Check Balding 大老板
5 years
Remember yesterday when I said, global debt to GDP actually misleads because global debt growth has centered in China with most others staying pretty flat or falling? Here is a good graph showing that. China now more indebted than the Euro area and has risen astoundingly fast
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
If anybody had a doubt of where #China is going with #SOE #reform , this clarifies it.⁦ @SCMPNews ⁩ China cements Communist Party’s role at top of its SOEs, should ‘execute the will of the party’
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
While the Party gathers in a historical congress, Chinese policy banks had to intervene today like crazy to avoid an additional rapid RMB depreciation The yuan is down 11.6% versus the dollar this year
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
#Chinesebanks One more bank saved today: Hengfeng Bank this time by CIC financial arm Huijin. Not even so small RMB 1.2 trillion in assets and number 23 in China!!!
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
3 years
I can only think of one common thread among all actions the #Chinese government ongoing crackdown: "private" private tech, private tutoring, now wealth, now private equity funds... you may draw your own conclusions
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
If Embassador Wu thinks this is going to help #Huawei , he should think twice
@BonnieGlaser
Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀 🇺🇦
4 years
This is an important correction. The message for China’s ambo was that it would be protectionist if China cut purchases of German-made cars.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
@iguardans De vacaciones en #Catalu ña veo claramente la imposibilidad del diálogo. Fé ciega y desconfianza sin espacio para nada más. Banderas y lazos como escudos para defenderse del que pueda tener otras ideas. Por mi parte, sentimiento de exclusión y pocas ganas de volver. Triste
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
I have a kind request for @orfonline as organiser of @Raisina2023 : don’t offer a platform for an invading nation; #Russia , without checks&balances. #Lavrov ’s aggressive words were expected but you,as organiser, has not offered any room to #Ukraine or others to replicate
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
If the US lifts the Hong Kong Policy Act imposes sanctions, the EU may follow suit. Internal pressure growing from European citizens @AMFChina
@AMFChina
Andreas Fulda 🇺🇦 🇹🇼
4 years
"EU foreign ministers are expected to discuss the issue at a regular meeting on Friday. A spokeswoman for the EU’s executive Commission said it was too early to say if the bloc would consider sanctions against Beijing." What do think the EU 🇪🇺 will do?
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
According to our analysis, Vietnam will be the largest beneficiary for labor intensive goods and Thailand for capital intensive goods. @NAR
@NikkeiAsia
Nikkei Asia
6 years
As the trade war heats up, companies scramble to shift production out of China
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
It seems every time #Putin meets #Xi , an escalation follows. Surely coincidental @vtchakarova
@vtchakarova
Velina Tchakarova
2 years
Russia will support the referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine. ✅ Putin announces "partial mobilization" in Russia. ✅ Putin uses the "nuclear blackmail" card. "If its territorial integrity is threatened, Russia will use all the means at its disposal. This is not a bluff." ✅
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
#coronavirus Quite frankly, I fail to understand why the largest manufacturing power in the world cannot produce enough masks. It is light and uncomplicated item and easy to transport. I may be missing something about the logistical difficulties. Or else, can masks be imported?
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
7 months
As a #Spaniard who has lived in rich cities on three continents, the problem is not #Britain but the answer is #Spain (all #Southern #Europe ): thirst for socializing, enjoying but also suffering with others, being human. This is what makes our cities thrive @TomMcTague
@TomMcTague
Tom McTague
7 months
This is exactly the question I asked myself travelling through northern Spain this summer. How come a place apparently poorer than Britain—and certainly poorer than south east England— *felt* so much more prosperous, with pleasant, clean and busy town centres packed with…
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
Best report around on #WHO in this crisis by François Godement. Below some of the key conclusions. @Trinhnomics
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@Trinhnomics
Trinh
4 years
China just restricted entry for foreigners. The WHO did not recommend ANY SPECIFIC HEALTH MEASURES for travelers from Wuhan on 11 January 2020. Also says that entry screening offers little benefit. It says also to NOT restrict travel to out break areas as late as 27 Feb 2020.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
@visegrad24 It is important to join the dots. This Irish MEP has already criticized members of MEP for visiting Taiwan. One might want to dig a bit.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
For those who said that supply chains would not budge as it was too costly… Apple Makes Plans to Move Production Out of China - WSJ
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
@bialasiewicz @collegeofeurope @coenatolin @JosepBorrellF His speech has nothing to do with geographies but with the realities of the threats Europa is facing. If is pure realism
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
Japanese pushing decoupling away from #China for its supply chain by subsidizing companies. Big wave coming #GVC
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
China's retaliation against the #US includes no more climate talks?? I thought climate was a common good. One more sign that #China 's retaliatory toolbox includes climate. The #EU should learn from this. @StuartKLau
@StuartKLau
Stuart Lau
2 years
China’s new 8 measures against US: 1 No more communication btwn military theatre leaders 2 No more Ministries of Defence working meetings 3 No more maritime security dialogues 4 No more illegal migrant repatriation 5 No more criminal justice assistance 6 No more climate talks
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
Top #Chinese scientists outlined the country's plan to circumvent #US chip #sanctions for the first time, namely amassing a portfolio of patents that govern the next generation of chipmaking. My question is: is so easy, why it has not happened yet ?
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
What a difficult year, the beginning of a realisation that a different world is awaiting us in 2019. I realise how privileged I have been to have lived in a pieceful, prosperous and globalised world for 50 years. I hope my kids are ready for a fragmented and unstable world.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
#Coronavirus #Stock #Markets are so short-sighted. Stocks tank only when there is a fear of a global spread of the virus. As if the Chinese economy were not big enough to have warranted a collapse in stock prices weeks ago!
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
The growing international role of #RMB since the war in #Ukraine is not materializing: #RMB international settlements are down after a spike in February and the same is true for #CNH deposits in #HK . Plus, the worst is yet to come given the sharp #RMB depreciation
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
Just a reminder of #China 's dominance in the supply of many of these key metals.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
but there are even worse cases in terms of demand-supply gap of rare metals... look at graphite! via @IMFNews
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
#China has been piling up #wheat quite aggressively: it now stores 142 million tons of wheat. By comparison, only ten million tons have been stored in the EU. The People’s Republic’s stockpiles account for over half of global stocks🧐🧐 @china_table
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
Whoever thought the world would suffer #stagflation as a consequence of #coronavirus probably got it wrong. hTe problem is collapsing demand and not so much supply. #China 's auto industry is a very good example: production is back but no need to produce cars which cannot be sold
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
#China #banking : Hengfeng Bank is getting a 100 billion yuan ($14 billion) state bailout which is diluting Singaporean shareholder #UOB from 13% to 3%. Other foreign investors looking into China's financial opening are probably shocked
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
The most serious consequences of Covid19 will indeed be on the divide between those children/adolescents who managed to save their education and those who did not. Huge challenges ahead for income distribution/social peace. Sad, if not drammatic @Trinhnomics
@Trinhnomics
Trinh
4 years
I worry about the kids that have to stay at home & the single parents that go to work & leave their kids at home & the parents that can’t help their kids with remote learning & the home that’s not fit for learning. Kids staring at the screen all day long w/o seeing other kids.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
#Vietnam : #Blinken suddenly cancels visit on his way back from #G20 in #Bali and guess what: #Russia 's #Lavrov confirms his visit to #Hanoi . What a coincidence and possibly some lessons to be drawn as to what is happening between the #West and the #Global #South
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
Cannot agree more. Germany is making it so easy for China to influence (if not trap) Southern Europe. One day, it may regret @GuntramWolff
@GuntramWolff
Guntram Wolff
5 years
So while China invests in Europe's South, Germany reduces its indebtedness by €53bn. Sad to see that Germany does not know how to better use its excess revenues rather than bring down debt that pays negative interest rates. via @SPIEGELONLINE
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
In other words, de-risking is not only about imports from China but requires a good knowledge of China's outbound FDI and participation in global value chains since we need to know what intermediate goods create the bottlenecks and aim at those, not at all (4/4)
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
6 months
@Rafael_Narbona @oscarmijallo @FranSevillaRne Cohetes artesanales ??? Y el ataque a Israel entonces?
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
@thorstenbenner For the battle of narratives to be fair, you need to have the same opportunities. #Borrell was given minutes in a panel, #Ukraine not even there. #lLavrov one hour shouting and insulting. It says a lot about organisers, to my dismay
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
#China #banking : Great way to limit systemic risk!. The reality is that China's approach to deleveraging is to create new leverage while putting the bad loans created by previous leverage under the mattress. End-result is an increasingly low return on assets
@michaelxpettis
Michael Pettis
4 years
“To meet Beijing’s lending target, banks are forced to work with riskier borrowers.” I’ve long argued that because real, sustainable demand is so weak, banks can only expand private sector lending by lowering lending standards and... via @financialtimes
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
I have a question: where is the #WHO ?. Why did it take them so long to visit #Hubei ?. What are they doing now? Why isn’t more info on success cases like South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan shared?
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
10 months
After yesterday's announcement of China's increasingly negative #producer #prices for June, the phantom of 2015 over capacity is back. The main reason is not external demand, but domestic demand. Let me use two important examples for what is happening (1/5)
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
#Brazil ’s central bank more than quadrupled its #yuan reserves in 2021 while trimming its dollar and euro holdings. With China accounting for 28% of Brazil’s trade, more than twice that of the US, it basically makes sense, except for the fact that the yuan is not convertible...
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
I have a question: what will happen to the European #car #industry , and related employment?. For a hint, check #Geely 's decision to produce all of #Volvo 's EVs in #China ?
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
#China ’s economy must be in really bad shape based on government’s announcement of record bond issuance and bigger fiscal deficit than in 2022. With a natural rebound from zero-Covid policies, no additional fiscal stimulus should be necessary, in principle…
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
The history of the #G20 is simple: in 2022 you take a "zero" out and you end up with #G2 : Russia and China. At the same, time, a selected but relevant group move to a renewed #G10 of like-minded actors! @vtchakarova
@vtchakarova
Velina Tchakarova
2 years
China says Russia can't be expelled from G20 by other members.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
Finally somebody (international chamber of commerce) says this loud and clear : #China zero Covid policies at the heart of supply chain disruptions China’s zero-Covid policies causing ‘major’ knock-on effects for snarled global supply chains
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
#China has just announced a reduction of the USD weight in the PBoC basket, #CFETS , a clear sign that the #RMB will not follow the USD if it strengths further
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
Regarding #Germany 's dependence on China, former Environment Minister Juergen Trittin argues that #Volkswagen is currently massively reducing its dependencies unintendedly because its market share is rapidly disappearing... via @China_Table
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
Let's not get this wrong:Taiwan 's export orders do not point to global trade bouncing back. Look at the very poor Japan's export data in March. It rather points to export substitution away from #China , in this case as a consequence of re-shoring of #Taiwanese corps @Trinhnomics
@Trinhnomics
Trinh
4 years
Taiwan export orders up!!! & Taiwan data continues to outshine the region w/ PMI above 50 & export orders positive entirely on electronics as everything else down! Chips = new essentials??
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
For those who want to know how important is #Hongkong to the Mainland, check this out: 50% of equity finance of Chinese financial institutions and real estate developers comes from Hong Kong!! On average more than one third for all Chinese companies. Hard to play around with this
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
Hong Kong’s equity financing role for Mainland #China : Which sectors are more dependent? @NatixisResearch #HK via @LinkedIn
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Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
#Germany #China : After this response from the Chief Editor of BILD to President Xi, I doubt relations can go back to normal. #Covid19 's impact on China's image really a rollercoaster: from horrible to great getting back to horrible again 😱
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
Can #China 's financial infrastructure help #Russia avoid Western #sanctions ?. To me, it can offer a small respite in the short run but no more. #CIPS still on #SWIFT and not liquid. #E -CNY still not used cross-border. Also, RMB in circulation is less demand for fledging ruble.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
3 years
Chinese regulators considering pressing data-rich companies to hand over management/supervision of their data to third-party firms if they want U.S. stock listings as part of Beijing’s scrutiny of private sector firms. As if the #US regulators could accept this. Dead end.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
Post-party hangover for China markets 😅😱 Offshore Yuan reached 7.3 to the dollar, all time low since it started trading in 2010 and the Hang Seng Index collapsed. Enjoy
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
Chinese households' may have piled excess savings but have lost wealth as 80% is locked in real estate and housing prices have plummeted. Also, the stock market has done much more poorly than Western stock markets did before the reopening so the wealth effect is negative (2/3)
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
8 months
If you are interested in #China and you would like to have access to interesting data, please check out our China Economic Data provided by @Bruegel_org under @china_horizons financed by the @EU_Commission .
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
#Chinese officials worrying about delisting: The crown jewels at risk #Alibaba and #Baidu but still not fully agreeing to accept US accounting standards!
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
3 years
Rumors of a #consumption tax in #China hitting #luxury sector, globally which is especially bad news for Europe. Dear foreign investors: welcome to Common Prosperity!
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
#TSMC ’s suppliers reportedly revealed that TSMC’s capex will be over US$40bn in 2023, paving the way for it to fulfill the 3nm orders to come from Apple, Intel, AMD and Nvidia during 2023 and 2025, strengthen its presence at the 5G and HPC sectors... what a company!
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
Great honour and thanks! @refinitiv
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
If you think #HongKong is not important for #China just a reminder that more than China’s has been buying the world through HK (over 60% of Chinese M&A overseas
@Bruegel_org
Bruegel
5 years
Those claiming Hong Kong is no longer important to China don't show the full story. We need to look beyond GDP and consider China's soft spot: access to foreign capital with a relatively closed capital account - writes @Aligarciaherrer >>
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
Why are people surprised by #Mercedes -Benz’s statement of impossible decoupling with nearly 10 % of its shares in the hands of a #Chinese state-owned automaker, #BAIC ? “ Mercedes- Benz’s chief says cutting China ties would be ‘unthinkable’ ⁦⁦⁦
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
5 years
China's return on assets have been coming down to close to 1% which is lower than most Emerging Markets and clearly low for a country which is growing 8% in nominal terms. Any doubt about the productivity of China's investment?
@subyroy
Dr Subroto Roy
5 years
debt can be productive or it can be unproductive... it all depends on what assets are created or not against them... lesson from Milton Friedman at my May 1989 @uhmanoa India perestroika conference
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
China's inflation data today is really worrisome (only 1% YoY). It points to weak demand. Core CPI was also lower (0.6% from 1%). Food & energy prices driving down China's inflation but, still, it is just surprising that not even the reopening creates inflation in #China
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
Miss #Spain . Every single corner. @WilliamChislet3
@WilliamChislet3
William Chislett
1 year
Ronda at 6.30pm.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
Very good article on The Renminbi’s New Role: Sanctions Busting. Quoted on how difficult it has been for Russia to accept RMB for payments
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
#Lula ’s flawed analysis: “why can’t we trade in our own currencies?”. As if the #RMB was his currency 😅🥹 Brazil’s Lula calls for end to dollar trade dominance via @FT
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
#ECFR offers a worrisome survey about the Global #South ' s opinion about the war in #Ukraine . The #West is really failing in its communication strategy.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
My take-aways from #Biden - #Xi face to face encounter on #Taiwan : 1. Xi does not want to go to war just now but it want Biden’s assurances that the US will not push. 2. At the same time, Xi will toughen his stance with more and more red lines aiming at isolating Taiwan
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
I have lived in many countries in #Europe and love all of them. I have always thought that the #EU project was the most beautiful thing which we #Europeans could have done to move forward after #WWII . Since the last #EUCouncil meeting, I simply cannot think of any thing else. 1/2
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
Better late than never.Germany needs an East-bound policy Angela Merkel says German companies should diversify to Asian markets beyond China
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
When I wrote this piece on trade deglobalization trends for @bruegel_org , the pandemic had not yet hit the world. I received negative comments saying that supply chain reshuffling and deglobalization would not happen given the level of interdependence...
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
Thread on China's vanishing demand: reasons and consequences @nytimes NYT today with @KeithBradsher discussing the gap between demand and supply in China. Clearly on point. As for the reason, it is not only frugality but a terrible job market (1/3)
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
The new realities of #German automakers! competition from China in their own domestic market and with its own models (or so they claim) and this is the last German sector pushing for engagement with China. Soon no more. See below news from @china_table
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
I am sharing with you a recent policy report published by @Bruegel_org and co-authored with Robin Schindowski on the deteriorating image of #BRI globally.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
I am ok with the lack of agreement, we are all going through difficult times, but that insulting moral standing from the #Netherlands is something I will never forget. #Dutch people: please choose other politicians. You do deserve much more.
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
1 year
So an ownership mapping is needed as rules of origin do not work anymore. Vietnam is a very good example. This includes ownership of companies in Europe (3/4).
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
4 years
Here is one more worrisome fact: four not so small banks have either been intervened directly by PBoC (Baoshang) or participated by large state-owned commercial banks like Jinzhou and, more recentlyHarbin bank. Large banks will pay a price
@tracyalloway
Tracy Alloway
4 years
There are multiple signs of strain in China’s financial system right now. - Runs on rural banks - An unprecedented SOE debt restructuring - Rising consumer leverage
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
#China ’s #money and #credit data for July is out and it is really poor. Household and corporate loans both grew much slower than in the past. Even local government bond issuance is slowing down after June's frontloading of issuance. This is a bad signal for Q3GDP growth (1/2)
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
@josecdiez Caída enorme de contenedores que salen de Shanghai y, en menor medida, del resto de China. Da miedo
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@Aligarciaherrer
Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞
2 years
#China has never been so dependent on #export markets as now: From Jan to April, China’s excavator sales dropped 56.1% domestically but increased by 78.9% in foreign markets.😱. We have been reviewing what this means for global inflationary pressures
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