Somewhere between 1-in-12 and 1-in-22 people in London has Covid.
Prevalence is estimated to be highest in the London area, at just over 6% across the population. Note though that confidence intervals are wider due to lower sample sizes than in previous studies.
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@ActuaryByDay
@JeremyFarrar
And as Patrick Berche, DG at Institut Pasteur in Lille 2014-2018, notes quite plausible this arose via gain-of-function research on potential pandemic pathogens like SARS. Hopefully WHO supports efforts to regulate such research.
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@ActuaryByDay
Are all these people βwith covidβ unvaccinated; ie do COVID-19 vaccines protect people from catching covid?
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@ActuaryByDay
So this means around 1 in 60 to 1 in 110 people in London will get Long Covid this Christmas-a condition that varies in severity but for which there is no cure and can leave you completely disabled unable to care for yourself. Why are people not being warned
@UKHSA
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@ActuaryByDay
In the US, New York being cited as a bellwether city/state for incidence trends (inc new variant driven) - wonder if this is so for London as we get more data points (waves)?
@john_actuary
@chrischirp
@PaulMainwood
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@ActuaryByDay
And this is still an UNDER estimate of the real prevalence, as the new ONS surveys are based on LFT, which miss around 1/3 to 2/3 of infected (previous surveys until discontinuation in april 2023 were based on RT-PCR)
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@ActuaryByDay
As a result I met a friend outdoors last night and cancelled a meeting with another today. I donβt want to be sick for Xmas and last contracted it when rate was this high in spring 22. When prevalence is so high need to take precautions and reduce social contact
#MaskUp
#Covid
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