Still, this data covers all admissions from the start of the epidemic until 3 April. For much of that period we are told that spare capacity was available so this data should not be skewed too much away from the typical critical case. 7/8
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There’s been a bit of an unpleasant and inaccurate narrative over recent days that the majority of COVID-19 deaths were people who were “at death’s door” in any case. That they died “with” rather than “of” the disease. I want to address that. 1/8
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In the next week there will be a bulletin on this from one of the team at
@COVID19actuary
but for now some brief thoughts from me.
I’ll refer to yesterday’s update from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC). 2/8
Full report:
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The first thing that jumps out from the medical history section of Table 1 is that 93% of those critically ill with COVID-19 were “able to live without assistance in daily activities” prior to developing the disease. That typically suggests reasonable health. 3/8
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Secondly, just 7% of 2,124 intensive care admissions had “very severe comorbidities”. That’s significantly less than typical viral pneumonia patients (as illustrated in table 1)👆
So 19 out of 20 were free of the most severe life-limiting conditions. 4/8
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Lastly, for now, the age distribution. Most critical cases are aged between 50 and 80.
People of this age, without severe comorbidities, could reasonably have expected to have years of life ahead of them before they contracted this disease. 5/8
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There‘s a danger of drawing conclusions from ICU admissions that I ought to bring out. Given capacity limits there will inevitably be some triage going on, ie admitting those with the best chance of survival. This will skew the data to some extent. 6/8
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Hopefully this goes some way to addressing the false narrative that these people would have died soon anyway, and we’ll hear rather less of it from journalists and commentators who ought to know better. 8/8
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The bulletin I made reference to above has now been published on LinkedIn. When I am able to I will provide another link for people who don’t use that site.
Our eighth bulletin is now available.
Matthew Edwards addresses the question of whether people are dying “with” or “of” COVID-19, concluding that the majority of deaths are people who would not have died anytime soon had the not contracted the disease.
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Those who don’t use LinkedIn can access the latest
@COVID19actuary
bulletin on this topic via the
@henryhtapper
blog.
“There’s life in the old dog yet” – let no-one be abandoned to Covid-19.
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If you found this thread useful you could perhaps consider donating to the Intensive Care Society 👇
Our urgent
#fundraising
appeal is helping us expand our support to the
#intensivecare
community throughout and beyond
#COVID19
with:
▶️more funding for research
▶️more Wellbeing & mental health
▶️more education
▶️patient & relative support
Donate: 💙
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Update: one week on.
It’s been a week since THAT thread using Critical Care data (from ICNARC) to challenge the narrative that those getting very seriously ill or dying from COVID-19 were already “at death’s door”.
There’s a new report out (and I’m a glutton for punishment) so let’s dive back in. /1
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Update: two weeks later.
Another week, another
@ICNARC
report.
When I dug through this report two weeks ago to examine whether COVID-19 patients were really “at death’s door” (see article), I didn’t expect it to become a regular weekend fixture.
They are compelling though, so let’s take a look. /1
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Update: 3 weeks on.
The latest
@ICNARC
report is out. Let’s see if I can do a summary which is both jargon-free and typo-free this week (feedback welcome).
I won’t focus on dispelling the “at deaths door” myth this week as lots of great research is now coming out making that point strongly. /1
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Update: 4 weeks on.
Latest ICNARC report is out. Here’s my summary and a link to the full report.
I originally used this report to try to dispel the myth that those dying of COVID-19 were already “at death’s door”. I’m pleased to see all the other supporting evidence that‘s emerged since then. /1
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Update: 5 weeks on
THREAD
The latest
@ICNARC
report is now out with, for the first time, multivariate analysis. So, stepping into
@ActuaryByDay
shoes, here’s the summary, and a link to the full report.
@COVID19actuary
@ICS_updates
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Update: 6 weeks on.
Latest
@ICNARC
report was released last night. Here’s a summary on behalf of
@ICS_updates
and
@COVID19actuary
, with thanks to
@NicolaMedical
for holding virtual pen last week.
Update includes 449 new patients (8,699 total); 717 new outcomes (6,860 total).
Full report 👇. /1
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Update: 7 weeks on.
Latest
@ICNARC
report on intensive care admissions and outcomes was released last night. Here’s a quick summary on behalf of
@ICS_updates
and
@COVID19actuary
.
Report includes 327 new patients (9,026 total); 587 new outcomes (7,447 total).
Full report is here👇. /1
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Update: 8 weeks on.
THREAD
The latest
@ICNARC
report on ICU admissions was published last night, and on behalf of
@ICS_updates
and
@COVID19actuary
, please read this thread for an update
1/
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Update: 9 weeks on
Latest
@ICNARC
report on intensive care admissions and outcomes was released last night. Here’s a very brief summary on behalf of
@ICS_updates
and
@COVID19actuary
.
Report includes 9,623 patients (276 new); 8,533 outcomes.
Full report is here👇. /1
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Update: 10 weeks on
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Update: 11 weeks on.
Latest
@ICNARC
report on intensive care admissions and outcomes was released last night.
Report includes 9,949 patients, with outcomes for 9,217 of them.
Most of the breakdowns of admissions and outcomes are stable at this stage, so this week I want to focus on ethnicity. /1
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@ActuaryByDay
Unfortunately Stuart unnecessary and even inappropriate triaging was taking place even the.n. That does not change ur main conclusions. It just makes some of the premature triaging decisions look awful
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@ActuaryByDay
I still think there could be some skew as remember being intubated means not being able to talk and if you think the patient has little hope you'll want them to say goodbye to relatives and die with dignity. It's not all about icu capacity.
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