If you're trying to make sense of which policies work to reduce gun violence, it's helpful to keep in mind that here in the U.S., we don't really have one gun violence problem, we have at least four. Read on.
When speaking to media about gun violence in America, I no longer use generic apolitical terms because they deny the reality that one political party is to blame for the all the bloodshed.
Have some exciting news to share. With the strong support of
@UofMaryland
and
@Arnold_Ventures
, I am starting a new venture: the Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction, also known as the Violence Reduction Center or VRC.
One thing they share, however: if guns were less easily accessible in America, all of these would be easier to handle, and gun deaths would decline. As I've mentioned before, gun licensing laws have been shown to reduce all types of gun violence.
The fourth is community gun violence, which accounts for the majority of homicides each year and is overwhelmingly perpetrated with guns. This violence doesn't get enough attention, largely because its victims are among the most marginalized in our society.
These four types of gun violence are separate but interconnected. What works to reduce one type of violence doesn't necessarily work for others, which is why we need multiple strategies to bring this terrible problem under control.
The first are gun suicides, which cause the most gun deaths. Some don't consider this "violence" bc the harm is self-inflicted, but given that almost 25k lost their lives in 2020 to this it's well worth including. I exclude accidents bc thankfully there aren't nearly as many.
Another powerful point from
@RachelKleinfeld
: "Americans need to understand that you can’t just keep your head down, stay out of politics and avoid what’s happening. You’re not going to be able to hide from it."
A deeply unsettling point from
@RachelKleinfeld
, who studies countries that descend into political violence.
Rises in political violence tends to be "preceded by a dehumanization phase."
The bad news: We are "well along in that phase."
The third is domestic gun violence, which according to one study could account for as much as one quarter of all homicides each year, more than half of which are committed with a firearm.
Here's yet another implicit bias study failing to find a positive impact on police behavior. If we're going to call ourselves "evidence-based," then we need to follow the evidence and try something else.
A new study of implicit bias training for officers in the NYPD finds what one researcher calls a "null result": it may change attitudes but it hasn't changed actions or behavior. Trainers are undeterred.
More at
@NPR
.
So when you're thinking about a specific policy, don't think about whether it addresses ALL gun violence, think about whether it addresses one of these four categories. And don't expect any one policy to solve all this all by itself.
The second are mass shootings, which cause the fewest homicides but get the most attention. According to the CDC, horrific incidents like
#Uvalde
account for less than 1% of total gun deaths.
...
#DefundThePolice
will go down in history as one of the worst political slogans of all time, and deservedly so. All this politics and policy by hashtag must stop.
As a committed progressive and researcher, I find some of the statements in this blog deeply disturbing. Make no mistake, this is our version of "alternative facts" and the fact it's published by the respected
@urbaninstitute
makes it even more worrying.
So please, folks in the media, let's just be clear about who is to blame here. If Republicans moderated on these issues we could put some sensible policies in place to save lives right away. It's not political or partisan to recognize this obvious reality.
We as a nation are not the problem, Republicans as a party are. We want to address the crisis, they won't let us. We are not responsible for the continued senseless killing, they are.
We’ve known this anecdotally for some time, but here’s solid research showing that recent violence increases have disproportionately impacted marginalized communities.
Daniel Penny, a 24-year-old Marine veteran, walked out of an NYPD precinct in Manhattan on his way to be arraigned after he surrendered to authorities Friday morning in the chokehold death of 30-year-old Jordan Neely.
That said, there's a big distinction between community gun violence and the others: for community violence, the guns used are usually already illegal under our current laws, whereas with other types of violence, the guns were legally owned.
This is why discussions about mass shootings tend to focus on legislation, while conversations about community gun violence focus on policing, community-based violence intervention, and other programmatic solutions.
Democrats want to address the problem, but they simply cannot enact the laws that we need in red states or nationally if Republicans object. And they do object, blocking even the most modest efforts to keep guns from falling into the wrong hands.
@RachelKleinfeld
For more deeply unsettling but necessary details, read Rachel's
@just_security
piece: "The events on January 6 are not past. They are prelude."
This irresponsible article reflects a disturbing deepening of the hard left's opposition to anything related to law enforcement, no matter how urgent the problem or necessary the response. Read on.
Wow.
@mattyglesias
really nails it here. If you want to understand why the
#DefundThePolice
movement runs contrary to the science, policy, and common sense, read this.
Qualifier: one party isn't responsible for ALL the bloodshed. But one party is PRIMARILY responsible for our country's unusually high rates of gun violence.
Our society feels like it's coming apart. People are angry and scared. During times like these, it's important to send a strong message that taking the law into your own hands will not be tolerated. People are being killed for ringing the wrong doorbell, for chrissakes.
But some of what the blog says isn't just wrong, it's dangerous. To state that objectivity and scientific rigor are "harmful research practices" is an assault on a collective truth-seeking process that is already under attack by so many on the right today.
Chronic absenteeism & truancy is still incredibly high in DC schools and much higher than pre-COVID.
Over 60% of high school students are chronically absent.
Mayor Bowser's "Every Day Counts!" Task Force has failed to get absenteeism under control.
Anyone with any training knows this, and Penny was trained during his time in the marines. He knew, or should have known, better. In continuing to choke Jordan Neely for minutes after he stopped resisting, he recklessly caused his death. That's manslaughter.
$280 billion per year. $767 million per day. $860 per person. The price tag for gun violence is massive and yet no figure can capture the grief of loved ones or the potential of a life cut short. Thank you
@Everytown
Research for this important report.
"When it comes to
#urbanviolence
, the first priority is to save lives, treating that violence with the same urgency that we would treat a gunshot wound in the ER." Thank you
@TEDMED
and
@TEDTalks
!
Here's what we know: failing to understanding how violent crime concentrates among small networks of people and places may be the single biggest impediment to better policy in this area.
Penny has to be held accountable not for how the incident started, but for how it ended. When you choke someone out, you absolutely know it. You feel it. By disregarding that feeling, Penny killed Neely. Now he has to answer for it.
When that happens, you must release the choke. IMMEDIATELY. Any aggression past the point of resistance is not self-defense or defense of a third party, it's assault. Or worse, as it was in this case.
This is a great article that discusses racism and extremism within police ranks, as well as the response to it. No easy answers here, but this is an incredibly important issue that not enough people are talking about.
Yesterday DC reached 200 homicides so far this year, the 1st time the city has reached that number since 2004. Baltimore is past 300. Philly is at 496. And it's only November. Folks are desperate and there seems to be no relief in sight. Frankly...
Lastly, I'd like to know whether the
@urbaninstitute
is moving in this direction in the future. If so, I'll be a lot less interested in what their "research" has to say. We already have enough advocacy. We need more objective and rigorously produced data, facts, and evidence.
Also in 2019, I wrote this in BLEEDING OUT: "Curbing illegal gun carrying—hot people, carrying hot (illegal) guns, in hot spots—is crucial. This behavior is perhaps the most important proximate cause of urban homicide today." That's still true today.
Today, as cities across America struggle to curb increases in deadly gun violence, the
@CouncilonCJ
's Violent Crime Working Group - which I chair - released our evidence-backed action plan to reverse the trend and promote peace in the streets.
Your stance is unpopular with every major demographic and unsupported by any evidence that it will actually improve the lives of those you claim you want to help. Abolitionism. Will. Not. Work.
We progressives cannot push back as effectively against anti-vaxxers, climate deniers, and election conspiracy theorists, among others, if we don't stay consistent. Truth is truth and facts are facts, however difficult, unpleasant, or inconvenient they may be.
@abbie_henson
@urbaninstitute
This is not a game, or some abstract intellectual exercise. Last year we lost almost 5000 more souls to violence than the year before. We need researchers to give us the cold, hard facts on what do in response to this crisis. Hope this answers your question.
Contrary to public perception, there are more gun deaths in rural counties than in urban ones. Urban counties have more gun homicides, but that difference is outweighed by a large differential in gun suicides.
Over almost ten years practicing BJJ, I have accidentally choked people unconscious in practice and in competition several times. You know it within seconds. Their body goes limp. They stop resisting. They become unresponsive.
Many people in our field are debating the recently-released results of READI Chicago, a well-known anti-violence program that provides cognitive behavioral therapy and subsidized employment to those at the highest risk for violence. For my take, read on.
Science, with all its faults, is still the best process for uncovering both truth and facts, and objectivity and rigor are absolutely essential to that process. If you're against them, you're against science.
THIS. Police unions are the single biggest reason for the slow pace of change. I'd like to see suggestions on how to deal with this issue specifically.
Right now, the single most important thing that can happen in terms of stopping violence and saving lives is for
#Congress
to pass the
#BuildBackBetter
Act, which includes $5 billion for community violence intervention - a transformative investment would change the game.
“No city has successfully arrested its way out of violent crime, but no city has successfully programmed its way out either. We need police and community-based groups working together, not competing for funding.”
Here's my latest in the
@WSJ
, discussing evidence-based strategies to reduce violence and announcing the
@VRC_UMD
, which will help to put these policies into practice. A couple of things to note as you read...
According to excellent work by
@Crimealytics
, we can expect murder to be up about 7% nationally in 2021. That follows a 29% surge in homicides in 2020. Why is this happening? What can be done?
@abbie_henson
Strongly disagree that objectivity is an illusion just because it cannot be perfected. The
@urbaninstitute
blog didn’t just call for critical reflection, as you are. It threw the baby out with the bath water, describing objectivity and rigor as “harmful research practices.”
“I’m terrified this stuff is going to reelect Trump in ’24. Forget about the midterms. I’m terrified this stuff is going to take down Biden if he runs for president again.” If that happens...
Depending on your definition, we had more mass shootings in 2020 than during any previous year. The difference? They happened mostly to non-white people. Safety, awareness, and empathy should never depend on race.
Wow.
@DavidKennedyNYC
, chief architect of focused deterrence, one of the most effective anti-violence strategies ever created, has written perhaps the best piece to date on the moment we're in with policing and violent crime. Please read it in full.
There's so much to say about this
@slate
article on just how far my fellow progressives have overreached on criminal justice reform. A few thoughts on this below:
Good news out of Philadelphia: addressing abandoned housing can cut crime. There's more and more evidence showing that paying attention to the physical environment where crime happens can pay dividends. That said...
An important point about
#DefundThePolice
. When meant literally, I oppose it. When it means re-visioning the system so that police can play a smaller role in public life, especially in poor communities of color, then I'm for it, even if I don't like the framing.
This flawed piece from
@MeganTStevenson
is getting some attention and will likely lead some to wrong conclusions, so I'm going to rebut it below. Dr. Stevenson is an accomplished scholar and this thread challenges this particular article, not her work generally. Read on.
So pleased to see my paper out in the BU Law Review!
This paper surveys 50+ years of randomized control trials in criminal justice and shows that almost no interventions have lasting benefit -- and the ones that do don't replicate in other settings. 1/
Finally had a chance to review the new
@GiffordsCourage
report on police/community trust and
#gunviolence
. Bottom line: it's simply excellent - amplifying, expanding, and improving upon the most important points made in
#BleedingOut
. Please read it.
No program is a panacea, but focused deterrence currently has the strongest body of evidence supporting its effectiveness for reducing urban gun violence. Read about the strategy in this new report by Anthony Braga and
@DavidKennedyNYC
.
After 5 great years at the
@Kennedy_School
, so pleased to be joining
@abgelb
and his team at the
@CouncilonCJ
. 2020 promises to be a great year, so stay tuned for even more developments :)
@Abt_Thomas
is one of the nation’s leading voices for more urgent and effective responses to urban violence. He’ll continue to spread the word about evidence-based violence reduction strategies and support other Council research and policy projects
People often ask why, if there are proven approaches to reducing community gun violence, haven't we done more to stop it? The bottom line is race - because community violence concentrates among the marginalized, it's often difficult to get - and keep - the political will to act.
Eddie Bocanegra, who directs the anti-violence initiative READI Chicago at
@heartlandhelps
, is joining
@TheJusticeDept
as a senior advisor for community violence prevention. Read on to understand why this matters.
I consult all over the country, giving guidance on how best to stop shootings and killings. In city after city, my advice is always the same: begin with a good problem analysis.
@abbie_henson
Thanks for asking. In criminal justice policy (not academia), we deal with big, tough, real issues. Life, death, freedom, incarceration. No one can challenge the undeniable salience, gravitas, and objective reality of murder, for instance.
We need cops and communities to come together. That's hard to say politically in some corners, but if we really care about saving lives, we must have the courage to follow what the science is telling us. And that science says it's not either police or communities, it's both.
"Police are part of the solution, but they are not the whole solution," I told
@cnn
recently. "You need community-based organizations and law enforcement agencies working together."
Congratulations to my friend, colleague, and mentor Laurie Robinson on receiving
@ASCRM41
’s Herbert Bloch Award, which recognizes “outstanding service contributions to the American Society of Criminology and to the professional interests of criminology.” Very well deserved!
"Hey, at the end of the day, we’re just like you, just in blue." GREAT
@nytimes
piece interviewing 11 officers from a diverse set of backgrounds. Lots of humanity and complexity here - give it a read.
Today the
@CouncilonCJ
released a landmark report on racial disparities in the U.S. criminal justice system. Read the whole report, but for some key takeaways, see below.
"It's not that we overfund police; it's that we underfund community-based violence prevention. You can't just arrest your way out of violence, but you also can't just program your way out of it either."
There's been a lot of coverage of record-breaking homicides over the past year, but not much news on what can actually be done. Next Wednesday, let's change that.
What happened was a tragedy. For both parties. Neely was acting out but he certainly didn't deserve to die. Penny was trying to be a good samaritan, but that doesn't excuse what he eventually did.
Wow. Congrats to Paul Carrillo and the
@GiffordsCourage
team for putting the single best resource on community violence intervention workers I've seen to date. If you read one report about this important area of violence reduction, this should be it.
Check out this important new
@CouncilonCJ
report on 2022 crime trends. The good news: homicide is down 4%. The bad news: homicide remains 34% higher than before the pandemic (although still below the historical highs of the 80s and 90s).
OUT TODAY – A new study from CCJ finds that most types of violent crime declined in major U.S. cities in 2022, but robberies and theft offenses rose. Homicide counts were 4% lower last year than in 2021, representing 242 fewer murders in the cities studied.