Can anyone answer this basic question:
If the
#CovidVaccine
works against the Delta/Indian Variant, as it seems to, then people may get Covid but they won't be seriously ill or die.
Which means a rise in cases won't overwhelm the NHS.
So why not unlock on 21/6 as planned?
@theJeremyVine
Because there is still a combination of people vulnerable to Covid who have declined the jab + proportion of fully vaccinated who still get sick because the jabs aren’t 100% effective + proportion of single jabbed getting sick because one dose not enough against Delta. This adds
@janemerrick23
Is it fair to say: while people are free to “decline the jab,” no special arrangement can be made to accommodate them — especially not an extension of lockdown?
@theJeremyVine
The pando has really brought home to me how bad a lot of journalism is. Once you're exposed to raw data, science, and people who are skilled at interpreting it, you realise how uninformed and unable to analyse things a lot of journalists are.
@TerribleEssays
You think so? I think it has reminded us that it is politicians, not scientists, who have to make the key decisions. And that the facts are tradeable between experts in a way that seems astounding to a lot of people.
@theJeremyVine
That's the question nobody can answer and unfortunately most media organisations are not asking.
There is no justification for not opening up as normal on the 21st based on all the evidence.
@theJeremyVine
No they can't. Because the goal posts keep being moved.
Save NHS, Get Vaccines, Long Covid it seems the narrative keeps changing.
Yes if you are testing more and more people you will find more and more 'cases'.
@theJeremyVine
There's so much counterfactual nonsense in these replies that you should really ignore. The chances of any significant new wave is extremely low and you can see that by applying currently vaccine levels retrospectively.
This table shows how many deaths we would have had between March 2020 and May 21st 2021 had we had the current levels of vaccination. (natural immunity not included).
Based on ONS data and the Gov's vaccine figures our current death toll would be 16,801 vs 138,272.
1/3
@theJeremyVine
The vaccine works well against the Delta variant if you are double dosed, but less effectively than the other variants with only one dose. Only 50% of adults are double dosed.
As far as I can see this is the problem
@theJeremyVine
Because the delta variant is already expanding quickly under current conditions; not everyone is vaccinated; vaccination doesn’t confer 100% protection; hospitalisation and mortality will still see some increase; long covid.
@theJeremyVine
Many younger people are not yet fully immunised.
A few weeks delay and huge effort to immunise more people will buy us extra protection.
Each days delay equals half a million people vaccinated.