samir kaji @Samirkaji Twitter profile

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samir kaji

1 year

Crazy day. After 22 years between SVB and FRB, I'm still at shock. My wife also works at SVB right now. The news today was huge, and here is what I've pieced together across 100's of conversations yesterday/today. 🧵

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

I can attest that I’ve learned more in 90 days running a startup than I did in 6 years between undergrad and my mba.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

A lot of panic re: SVB (you should see my phone/emails!). A bank run driven by panic is the real risk here, not the action of selling LT securities at loss I have no inside information as I left SVB in 2012, but know enough about banking to piece together. Quick 🧵

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

VC and tech twitter has really deteriorated to a point where shit-posting is like 80% of the material.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Writing effective cold emails is an underrated, but insanely effectively skill to learn early on in a career.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

I just logged on to Twitter and see doom and gloom in VC/Tech Twitter, including some long threads. As a founder (or investor), wartime operating is where you make your hay. I've been through 3 cycles. Relax.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Emerging managers, what stack are you using to run your firm? Fund admin: Audit/tax: Legal: Banking: LP pipeline: Crm: Email: Deal pipe: Other: We will combine and report on most common

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

I never really understood age-ism (either direction) in startup or vc land. But it is still prevalent I’m now 46 and have more energy and ambition than i did when i was 30.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

Becoming a new seed VC: Perception: Investing in cool startups,having status, making a ton of $$$ Reality: Constant juggle of fundraising (and rejections) and IR, endless pitch mtgs, solving port problems,working with service providers, being in neg cash flow

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

Wow. Really @WSJ ? "I'm not saying 12 white men would have avoided this mess, but the company may have been distracted by diversity demands" How was this published?

Jessica Lessin

@Jessicalessin

1 year

For @wsj to say flat out that SVB could have failed because they added non-white men to their board shows how far behind the times (and certifiably stupid) this publication really is. It makes me so angry and very sad. WSJ readers and staff deserve better.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Big personal news. After 21 years in banking, I'm moving on and starting a new chapter as an entrepreneur. Excited to tell everyone about it soon!

I’m starting a new career journey

After 21 years as a venture banker, I’m leaving the banking and it leaves me equal parts energized, sentimental, and perhaps a bit anxious…

samirkaji.medium.com

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Another career tip to learn early: Learn to write. Hone the skill every day. Get comfortable writing to bigger (and more public) groups. If forces cohesive thought, enables effective one to many interactions, and can be therapeutic once you get highly proficient

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

My convo with a HNW LP the other day: LP: I'm tired of looking at seed funds. Most won't lead, and just follow signals or trends. Me: Have you heard of "XYZ" fund? they are independent thinkers & are raising: LP: Nice, how much have they closed, and who else is in? Sigh

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

15/ Heartbreaking, and it could have been avoided, both by different strategic decisions by SVB (and better messaging), but also if the VC community hadn't turned so aggressively against SVB. They would have been ok if the run didn't happen. Prisoners dilemma at work

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Venture capital is LONG term asset class that tends to overreact to short term disruptions. Stay focused on long term. Panic is why people miss great companies and funds.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

Common themes of successful VCs I've observed from meeting with 1000+ VC's 1/Playing the "game" they can win, and not getting moved into a game that plays into someone else's strengths 2/ Ok with being on an island (non-consensus) and being wrong cont/

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

I'm now seeing emails from various firms imploring their companies to move all cash to a top 4 bank (including from FRB, Signature, etc). This type of panic will break the system, is frankly, very dangerous. However, a few things to think about: 🧵

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Invest in people early. Don't wait until they've made it to be kind and helpful. Rinse and repeat. Still the best piece of career advice I received early in my career. So much more fulfilling to rise with great people.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Over 1200 emerging VC firms in the US formed over last 11 years. Next two years will separate hobbyists from long term practitioners. This is not a bad thing.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

Hard to believe but firms like Forerunner, Craft, A16Z, Ribbit, DCVC, Goodwater, Lowercase, 8VC, Susa, etc. didn't even exist going into the last downturn. It'll be exciting to see what the next generation of top VC will look like.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

I just spoke to a LP who was evaluating a fund manager, and they mentioned how they were disappointed that the manager "only" had averaged a 26% net IRR across their last 5 funds (lots of it realized). To put in it perspective, you double your money ever 3 years at 26%.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

The best round of capital ever is that first paying customer.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

Glad the @theallinpod & @DavidSacks covered venture debt in the last ep. It definitely is something founders get wrong too often. I was a venture debt lender in 99/00. For founders, here is a quick primer:

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Building a great venture firm can start small, and it's totally ok: Fund 1's of some managers you may be familiar with: Lux: $10MM Floodgate: $10MM DCVC: $6MM Uncork: $1MM Felicis: $5MM Haystack: $1MM Focus on running a marathon, not a 40 yard dash.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Venture LPs are rarely active as contributors on VC twitter, but they sure are watching/listening 👀

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Why isn’t there a better LinkedIn yet?

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

3 banks JPM, Bank of america, wells control 43% of US deposits.... But lets worry about adobe's acquisition of Figma as a threat in the design world.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

5/ And, this was the quickest bank run ever, as it was nearly all digital. In the "old" days, bank runs were slower as it took in person visits/phone calls. When so many deposits move out, it puts pressure on the asset based of securities/loans to cover

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

6 years

Updated list of Micro-VC funds (sub-$100MM/seed list). Let us (me or @hanayang ) know others that should or shouldn't be here!

Micro-VC/seed fund spreadsheet

Sheet1 Firm Name,Investment Sector,Location (City),Investment Stage,URL 1776,Technology, Health, Transportation, Energy, Education,Washington, D.C.,Early Stage Venture, Seed,https://www.1776.vc/ 11.2...

docs.google.com

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Excited to announced the Venture Unlocked podcast, which focuses exclusively on the starting/operating of a vc firm.Let's bring more informed & diverse capital to founders! Recording starts in 3 weeks,& have great guests lined up Sign up here for updates!

Venture Unlocked.

The playbook for growing and operating a venture capital firm.

ventureunlocked.substack.com

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

I'm getting closer to launching my podcast focused on the art of starting, building, and scaling a great and durable venture firm. Will cover fundraising, team building, differentiation, port. construction, and culture. Stay tuned for updates in the coming weeks!

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

As an angel investor, I'm seeing more memos vs pitch decks as ever before (seed). Personally, I like them better. Better substance, less design fluff.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Finally! Here is the list of LP's that are investing in underrepresented VC mgrs (actively looking or a direct mandate).thx to those that helped crowdsource! If you are a LP (or know one) & interested in being added,see below.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Power Law in VC is immutable. In seed, it's almost impossible to return a 3X+ w/o at least 1 company returning the fund (or a 50-100X the capital invested in said company).It's the calculus every investor is using when evaluating any invesment ("can it become a fund returner")?

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

for those raising a sub-$50MM fund, here are the types of potential LPs, ranked by probability type (and often length of allocation decision). 3&4 are close 1 High Net Worth individuals 2 Single FO 3 Fund of Funds/RIA/multi FO 4 Foundations/strategics 5 Endowments 6Pensions

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

A lot of people have asked me what we are up to. I want to formally introduce our new company, Allocate to the world! Sign up here to stay updated along with a bit about us! cc: @hanayang

Introducing Allocate

Follow me @samirkaji for my thoughts on the venture market, with a focus on the continued growth with the emerging manager landscape.

samirkaji.medium.com

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

For VC's: What is the best piece of advice you could give an aspiring new VC that you wish you had before you started (feel like a lot of snarky "don't do it" comments will follow :))?

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

A few ppl have asked me why I am spending so much time on SVB 1) It's personal. I was at SVB, and my wife is there. 2) Regional banks are strategically important to our economy 3) The level of misinformation/bad advice by the industry is reckless 4) I care about the ppl affected

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

There are 771 unicorns globally. Sequoia is in 92 of them (per @CBinsights ). That's 12%. Insane to have that kind of market share of runaway companies.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

Best thing about conferences? Name badge stalkers: Person walks by and looks straight at you. Looks at your name-badge Makes quick assessment of importance Walks away as if they didn't see you. *Sigh*

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

The last 10 years have spoiled a lot of investors and skewed venture expectations. I've had both GPs and LPs this week casually say that 5x net is a reasonable benchmark for seed stage firms. Why is this unreasonable? Let's look at the math. 🧵

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

I have no clue why I say "please" every time I ask ChatGPT to do something.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

16/But no one can really blame a startup or a VC to not want to take a chance of being the last to react. Sad news all around. And many of the contagion worries about certain other banks are frankly misinformed.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

July 2011 - 161 VC funds in market targeting $24.5B in commitments July 2019 - 1,004 VC funds in market targeting $95B in commitments

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

5 months into remote work - Zoom fatigue is real; 4/day is max & no back2backs - Onboarding new ppl is hard - Productivity drain comes from burnout,not lack of engagement - I've now do 10-15K steps per day and use to catch up on podcasts or just think.very helpful others?

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Have now been through 600+ venture fund raises with managers (and LP's). The fundraising process is broken & inefficient due to fairly identifiable reasons. Working on something cool here to help solve for some of these issues. Excited to announce fairly soon.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

We are excited to announce our $5MM Seed round from a wonderful set of investors! We are excited to have the capital to build a product and team necessary to solve the many friction points that exist in private fund allocating (& raising).

Allocate banks $5M to open up venture capital fund access | TechCrunch

The world of venture capital investing is a relatively small one, and family offices and accredited investors are eager to get involved, but find it difficult to access fund managers.

techcrunch.com

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

A big mistake that many LPs make when investing is being tourists in VC; piling in when times are red-hot & vacate when times cool. VC is the longest of long-only asset classes and is cyclical; Better to moderate deployment over time and not overreact to up (or down) cycles

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

📢Big news at @joinallocate - We just closed our Series A! cc: @hanayang

Check out the 17-page pitch deck that Allocate, a startup that lessens the cost of investing in...

Kaji and Yang rolled out Allocate in 2021 to aggregate investments in venture capital funds. The minimum investment is just $100,000.

www.businessinsider.com

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Venture studio models are Really hard to execute, but when they work, boy do THEY work. Still a small part of venture universe. Who are your favorite venture studios?

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Public investing: sign up on Robinhood and get started in 7 minutes Invest in a vc fund: please fill out this 33 page sub doc that no one understands.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

For new managers, don’t be cavalier when speaking about “expected performance” I see too many managers throw out 3-5X like it’s nothing. 3X+ net is top decile in nearly every vintage year in history (in most cases, it’s upper, upper top decile). possible but hard. Thread start/

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

Someone asked me the other day the one skill that most great VCs have. My answer? Storytelling It's also a skill that far too many don't spend enough time honing.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

I'm starting a podcast focused on main aspects of running a venture fund (with emphasis on fundraising, building infrastructure, ops). Anyone have tips on great equipment, best practices?

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Venture Fund of Funds have been a great source of capital for venture managers for decades & are often the group that Emerging Managers speak with when raising. However,it’s important to have visibility into the business model/process/allocation styles. Some basic thoughts/

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

The myth in vc: the funds that don’t want you are the only ones you want to invest in. The truth: many of the most interesting and successful early managers are undiscovered and accessible. I’ve worked with most of these managers over the last 12 years and 100pct true

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

If you had to invest all your capital into one emerging vc firm, Outside of your own firm, who would it be and why?

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Just a reminder for those raising a new emerging fund, remember: - easily requires hundreds of meetings - feedback loop is almost non existent - no great way to prove differentiation or show traction -18+ month avg time -getting ghosted after multiple “great” calls is normal

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

I do understand why inst Lps focus on throwing capital at big brands, however imagine having been early in firms like IA, founder collective, dcvc, forerunner, felicis, initialized, first round etc. venture is risky inherently. Emerging vc should be part of Every Lps fund model

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

Celebrating 47!

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

1/Now that the SVB auction is live, know that we believe them to be a very attractive purchase given relationships and core business. I expect that both banks and private capital will bid and there will be a lot of bids

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

I'm more convinced today than ever that venture capital will be the most important asset category in the world going forward. Cycles will occur and the mega-bubble of 2021 will washout returns, but this is the only class that meaningfully will drive societal transformation

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

Tough time to raise a fund, but if you do, the next few years should be an amazing time to deploy.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Myths in VC that should be retired: - Only top quartile funds are worth investing in - Emerging managers are inexperienced - Every manager with a big portfolio is "spray and pray"

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

Fundraising as a fund manager is tough for 90% of firms of the market. As I've mentioned, we are extremely likely to move into the hardest fundraising cycle I've seen since 2008. So, what to do in these markets to understand/adapt? 🧵

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

I haven't take more than 9 days off in nearly 15 years (& off for me means 70-80% off). I'm going to take about 3 weeks away in February at nearly 100% to recharge. Any tips on how to truly recharge during that time (maybe 3 weeks isn't enough)?

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

My favorite thing about VC LinkedIn is the work experience sections that are longer than CVS receipts

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

In case you've missed VC twitter the last month or so: -SPACS -Miami -NFT's -Clubhouse Welcome back.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

Since everyone has thoughts on the market & VC, thought I'd share our recent newsletter (we also compiled some great resources and data from @DavidSacks @CBinsights @fintechjunkie @cartainc )

The bull market is over… What are the implications for venture capital?

TLDR: Venture managers are changing their behavior with respect to new deal pacing and valuations. Although pacing has slowed, the market has not fully adjusted to the new market as investors and...

ventureunlocked.substack.com

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Putting a projected fund return of 5X+ in a venture fund deck is equivalent to getting a pitch deck from a company stating that it will be the next unicorn. It could happen, but it equivocates to naivete (Fun fund question: what % of venture funds do you think hit 5X+?)

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

Areas in VC where I think are points of stability - Be a tier 1 large AUM platform, and see everything. - Be a specialist enabling non consensus - Be small and early and invest before things are obvious Need to be in at *least*one. Mid size generalist likely danger zone

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

6 years

3 things every VC fund deck should address: -Why you will see the most interesting companies and entrepreneurs within your thesis -Why entrepreneurs will take your capital versus other investors (ability to win based on value add) -Why you are uniquely positioned for the model

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

For what it's worth, I'm very bullish on seed funds focused on markets outside of SV. This isn't meant to be anti-SV at all, but just strong belief in future of non-SV tech hubs (i.e PNW, Austin, Colorado, Minny, Pitt, Atlanta, DC, etc).

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

A few tips for emerging Vc -Don't get cute with fees & deviate off 2/20 (creates noise). 2.5% during inv. period ok. -Don't offer up GP economics or reduced fees unless big anchor type(i.e. 15%+ of fund 1) -Premium carry, even w/hurdles are hard -Don't offer contractual co-invest

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

I just went through my email and notes in 2019; I met with 227 people starting brand new VC firms this year. Shocking for me because I thought it was more than that.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

We are building a database of the top inst. LPs (or non-inst FO's that have been public) focused on diverse manager investing (and by focused, I mean putting capital to work). I'll compile and share publicly.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

Spoke to 6 different VCs today who mentioned they are slowing down investing and have raised the bar for net new deals I think this is actually a good thing and healthy

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

There was a time not to long ago when investing in VC had one flavor, but now there are so many different options with widely different characteristic & profiles (the below isn't meant to fully comprehensive and of course there are other sub-categories). Very exciting times.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

I know there are scout programs & some large VC firms invest in seed managers. But if you are a Series A fund w/good AUM to afford it, wouldn't it make sense to set up a seed VC co-work space/VC incubator to get a first look at great seed to A companies?

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Pattern recognition in VC is important (whether investing in companies or funds), but requires people to continuously and *consciously* question it. If not, the personal algorithm becomes replete with biases, rigidity, and is unamenable to new types of ideas & people.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Over the last few days, our team has had 200+ email and phone inquiries about the CARES act, and specifically around what it means for early stage VC backed startups. A lot of confusion out there, so here is what I know as of now: /Thread

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

LPs are moving to risk-off in VC, meaning passing emerging managers in favor of established. Data showed this in 22'. For Emerging Managers, there are ways to be more successful in raising, which requires being able to answer the "why" Short🧵

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

5 years

For seed VC's raising, I see too many slides focus on high level thesis/market strategy. More time should be spent discussing why *You* are uniquely positioned to win. *You* are the product,strategy is meaningless unless you can demonstrate what the product/market fit is.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

False VC narrative: VC's just just golf and go on vacations. Maybe true for small %, but those that are seed VCs and VCs are at newer firms in particular are some of the hardest working and scrappy ppl I've ever met outside of founders.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

1/ So, this AM California state regulators put the bank in receivership under FDIC control. This has created a spiral in the banking industry overall, although it is clear to many of us the issues at Silvergate & SVB are very idiosyncratic.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

That’s VC’s r all wealthy is one of the biggest myths ever. SOME are filthy rich but vast majority have all wealth tied up in illiquid uncertain shares and very small pct have ever seen meaningful carry check.Not saying anyone shld feel sorry but funny when it’s offered as gospel

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

I think LP's that will not under any condition invest in Fund 1's are making a massive, massive mistake. GP/LP Alignment, fund sizing, and inherent hustle required by manager all outweigh risk (which many are perceived).

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

4/ Now it is absolutely not the responsibility of the clients (VC/startups) to prop up a bank. But the reaction will create consequences that are far greater than what would have happened by not moving en masse.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

I still talk to LPs who can't get over the solo GP model. I remind them: - Partnership dysfunction risk >>>> Someone getting hit by bus (and protections built into LPA). - At early stages, firm brand is really GP personal brand - Performance of solo GP funds has been very good

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

2 years

Investors in VC should seek returns that are 6%+ to public market. Using @PitchBook for vintages 97-2021 Median VC: +3.6% average annual to public market average Top quartile: +10.2% Top decile: +31.2% Bottom quartile: -6.6% Bottom decile: -15.6% Asset quality.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Math note on the importance of recycling in venture: For a fund to provide a 3X net return to LPs but doesn't recycle a single $ would need to provide a ~4.6X return on invested capital.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

3 years

Pro tip: Never underestimate those that are perpetually underestimated.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

6 years

LP's: The 2/20 model needs to go When a GP attempts to bring a model that is different than 2/20 LP: "Hmm, something must be wrong for them to get creative with economics" not all LP's of course think like this, but I've heard this far too often

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

It still surprises me to see so many new fund managers not fully grasp the intensity of operating a venture firm. Like I’ve said before, running a firm has parallels to running any company. You just are writing checks not code.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Venture Debt is very cheap these days, but 4 common mistakes I see founders & investors make: 1)Agnostic about the lender; it matters more than you think 2)Conflate w/equity 3)Take too much; limit to ~30% of recent funding 4)Not having clear visibility to next round milestones

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

1 year

Huge - and anyone thinkimg there was no contagion can read this and signature and know that was wrong

First Republic Gets Additional Funding From Fed, JPMorgan

The fresh funding gives the bank, which was under pressure following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week, $70 billion in unused liquidity.

www.wsj.com

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Fundraising tip for emerging VCs: LPs want differentiation, but not TOO much differentiation. Too many moving parts that are foreign in a story almost always impede securing allocations. Differentiate, but focus on 1-2 things that you well and that matter.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

6 years

Presented this eye-opening stat for MicroVC fundraising based on a recent survey we conducted..... Female led firms: - avg fundraise time: 16 months -avg amount raised $31MM -85% had PRIOR VC experience Male led: - 11 months -$35MM raised -35% had prior VC experience

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

Emerging Managers/Micro-VCs: I'm going to do a Medium Q&A mailbag about VC fund fundraising in this environment. I've spoke to over 30 LPs and Gps this past week, so taking questions here (will respond via twitter on quick ?'s and longer ones will be Medium by Monday.

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samir kaji

@Samirkaji

4 years

The art of asking great questions is such an underrated skill --- it's a major key to unlocking opportunity, building relationships, unearthing the critical non-obvious, and demonstrating intellect.

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